2019-20 Japanese ladies' figure skating

[Casual]

Kaori will have almost 100% no gold in France, therefore, she will not be able to get into the finals.

Too bad, because she's actually the one deserving to be watched and appreciated (repeatedly).

 

[medoroa]

Of course I spoke about the ladies.
I will explain my position - the situation of the junior season 2018-2019 is repeated. The very fact of the presence of the trio of Kostornaya, Shcherbakova, Trusova led to the fact that in reality there were not 6 places, but only 3. And then one girl (Anna Tarusina) was not enough even 13 + 13.

I can believe in 24 passing points, but not 22 at this season. Kaori will have almost 100% no gold in France, therefore, she will not be able to get into the finals.

You asked about who it had happened to and I told you. It has happened and it's not even particularly rare for skaters to WD from either their GP event or GPF to focus on later competitions. No one is saying Sakamoto will surely advance to the GPF (I personally find it more unlikely than not), but you are the one denying the possibility altogether when examples exist that prove it can happen.

In fact, the special situation this season means that a gold is less necessary than past seasons. Kostornaia, Trusova, and Shcherbakova will likely advance with 1-1. This means no other lady will have a gold. This means the other three spots will be fought over among skaters who have silver as their highest placement. It's not like other seasons when the golds were divided among 5 or 6 skaters who then all advanced. Logistics are complicated for GPF.

 

[Orlov]

In fact, the special situation this season means that a gold is less necessary than past seasons. Kostornaia, Trusova, and Shcherbakova will likely advance with 1-1. This means no other lady will have a gold. This means the other three spots will be fought over among skaters who have silver as their highest placement. It's not like other seasons when the golds were divided among 5 or 6 skaters who then all advanced.

You interpret this incorrectly, and the last junior season, I repeat, shows the exact opposite - even two silvers was not enough. Correct interpretation - sharply increased competition since three new hungry mouths came. Come on, it's simple - judging by what we saw with high probability will be: Kostornaya, Trusova, Zagitova, Shcherbakova, Kihira. And ladies will be fight for the 6th ticket (Tennel, Tuktamysheva, may be Miyahara, Medvedeva) It will be a tightrope walk, and there will be no place for skaters with a 4th place (especially when Alina Zagitova and Alena Kostornaya stand in the way of that skater on her second stage), you will see.

P.S.
btw, tell me, please, where on the ISU website is information about the series of Grand Prix of past years?

 

[Interspectator]

Kaori’s SP is already one of my FAVORITE programs of the season.

Same!

 

[rabidline]

Mai Mihara will likely withdraw from Cup of China as well.

Her coach Sonoko Nakano said at Skate America
"In my awareness, she won't go"
"Focus on treatment. I want her not to push herself too hard, to be able to certainly come back in next season."
https://www.sanspo.com/sports/news/20191020/fgr19102019320007-n1.html

Nikkan Sports Twitter account just tweeted that JSF has held a board meeting today and announced that Mai will not attend Cup of China due to her health condition I wish her a smooth recovery to full health.

https://twitter.com/nikkan_wm/status/1186149823101063168

 

[randomfan]

Of course I spoke about the ladies.
I will explain my position - the situation of the junior season 2018-2019 is repeated. The very fact of the presence of the trio of Kostornaya, Shcherbakova, Trusova led to the fact that in reality there were not 6 places, but only 3. And then one girl (Anna Tarusina) was not enough even 13 + 13.

It’s hard to compare the junior qualification to the senior one - remember that the JGP has one more event.

 

[zanadude]

Nikkan Sports Twitter account just tweeted that JSF has held a board meeting today and announced that Mai will not attend Cup of China due to her health condition I wish her a smooth recovery to full health.

https://twitter.com/nikkan_wm/status/1186149823101063168

I certainly hope that the clock has not struck midnight for Cinderella...but things seem to get more difficult for her with each passing year.

 

[Grin]

KYODO NEWS
Figure skating: Sakamoto, Higuchi medal-less at Skate America
Japan's Kaori Sakamoto missed out on a podium spot when she slid to fourth place following her free skate on Saturday, while Russia's Anna Shcherbakova clinched the women's crown in her senior Grand Prix debut at Skate America.

Sakamoto, who was in second when the night began, amassed a total of 202.47 points, fewer than the 210-plus points she scored when claiming silver at Skate America in both the past two years. Wakaba Higuchi, who was third after Friday's short program, fell to sixth.

"Lack of practice hurt (my chances for a medal)," Sakamoto said.

"I've been too easy on myself during my free skate practices. I have to get in better shape as I need more strength to land jumps after perfecting my choreography," she said.
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/...-japans-tomono-5th-at-2019-skate-america.html

 

[Skater Boy]

You asked about who it had happened to and I told you. It has happened and it's not even particularly rare for skaters to WD from either their GP event or GPF to focus on later competitions. No one is saying Sakamoto will surely advance to the GPF (I personally find it more unlikely than not), but you are the one denying the possibility altogether when examples exist that prove it can happen.

In fact, the special situation this season means that a gold is less necessary than past seasons. Kostornaia, Trusova, and Shcherbakova will likely advance with 1-1. This means no other lady will have a gold. This means the other three spots will be fought over among skaters who have silver as their highest placement. It's not like other seasons when the golds were divided among 5 or 6 skaters who then all advanced. Logistics are complicated for GPF.

I still think Rika or Kaori could beat the Russians as ice is slippery and Rika has killer jumps and tech . Not to mention Lilbet though she is injured right now.

 

[Artemisa]

I still think Rika or Kaori could beat the Russians as ice is slippery and Rika has killer jumps and tech . Not to mention Lilbet though she is injured right now.

we are a few days to find out ... a 2nd place in canada is half way to the final ... but NHK isn't easy either

 

[readernick]

If Rika has her 3lz back by NHK and adds her 4S, she can win. However, I believe Rika is not including her 3Lz at SCI due to injury. The best she can hope for is 2nd. She should be second as long as she's clean.

I don't think Kaori has much chance of making the GPF because her BV just isn't high enough.

 

[Dreamer57]

I think that Satoko has a better chance of making the final than Kaori at this point, but it depends on whether she can achieve her Skate America level of scores.... she might even be reworking her jumps this season so it could be quite unpredictable for her.

P.S.
btw, tell me, please, where on the ISU website is information about the series of Grand Prix of past years?

Do you mean https://www.isu.org/figure-skating/entries-results/fsk-results ?

 

[sailormoon]

Marin Honda and Keiji Tanaka were in a traffic accident while riding in a taxi in Kelowna. It’s been determined that neither was seriously injured, so they plan to compete in Skate Canada as scheduled.

Marin Honda suffered leg and neck injuries when their taxi collided with the car in front of them. The injured right leg was heavily taped when she participated in the practice session of Skate Canada. Marin Honda said the injuries would affect her skating but she is determined to make the most of the opportunity.

https://www.daily.co.jp/general/2019/10/25/0012818501.shtml?ph=2

 

[zanadude]

I still think Rika or Kaori could beat the Russians as ice is slippery and Rika has killer jumps and tech . Not to mention Lilbet though she is injured right now.

Hoping for mistakes/injury isn't much of a strategy.

 

[skatenewbie]

Rika still not jump 3Lz in SP practice, so her ankle still bothering her. Also is she in the middle of growth spurt? Her jumps is not getting same elevation/height that makes her landing a bit messy often times which hinder her to get higher GOE. With that being said i guess its hard to win SC with Trusova there, but getting silver already good for her chance to GPF. Wishing her best luck

 

[Lunalovesskating]

Marin's 3F+3Lo
https://twitter.com/Konrad_Weller/status/1187557002441977856?s=20

I hope she is not pushing herself too much after the accident.

 

[elektra blue]

Marin Honda and Keiji Tanaka were in a traffic accident while riding in a taxi in Kelowna. It’s been determined that neither was seriously injured, so they plan to compete in Skate Canada as scheduled.

Marin Honda suffered leg and neck injuries when their taxi collided with the car in front of them. The injured right leg was heavily taped when she participated in the practice session of Skate Canada. Marin Honda said the injuries would affect her skating but she is determined to make the most of the opportunity.

https://www.daily.co.jp/general/2019/10/25/0012818501.shtml?ph=2

oh my gods! i hope they're actually fine

 

[lusterfan]

Rika did exactly what she needed in the SP to at least stay competitive with Trusova's (quad quad) FS!

Shame that she doesn't have her lutzes back yet. If she had them and skated cleanly, she may not even need a 4S to stay in the game. Without them, Trusova's quads are just insurmountable. Wishing the best for Rika tomorrow!

 

[lzxnl]

Rika did exactly what she needed in the SP to at least stay competitive with Trusova's (quad quad) FS!

Shame that she doesn't have her lutzes back yet. If she had them and skated cleanly, she may not even need a 4S to stay in the game. Without them, Trusova's quads are just insurmountable. Wishing the best for Rika tomorrow!

I've done quick calculations based on judging histories for Rika and Sasha, and it's closer than you think, even without a 3Lz for Rika.

Take Rika's NHK skate from last season, TES of around 87. Take out a 3Lz and replace it with a 2A, accounting for GOEs, that puts the TES at around 84. Rika scored 35/40 for her PCS in a short with a really strange bit of music, so there's every chance she can score 72/80 for PCS in the free. That puts Rika at around 156. 156 + 81 = 237.

Sasha is on 74, she'll need around 163 to overcome that. Can she do it? Her current PB is 163.89 at ONT with 3 quads, so theoretically yes, Sasha has every chance of winning, even if she just lands three quads. Land four quads cleanly and she will definitely win; replacing a 3F with a 4S gives her about 5 extra points on TES, putting her at around 169, which is a lead of 6 points.

Let's now consider what is likely to go wrong. Rika has to land both 3As, which I think is reasonable given her extraordinary 3A record this season (this puts her at 5 3As landed cleanly out of 6 attempts, with just one UR), and land that pesky 3Lo. She landed it in the short, very nicely I might add, so it's reasonable to expect her to skate clean tomorrow. She's looking in fine touch.

Sasha's 4Ts this season have been fairly good, although she did make a mistake on a 4T at Japan Open. Her 4S has been solid from the practice videos I have seen. I didn't see her land a 4Lz cleanly in practice at Skate Canada, so there are question marks on that. She also has to be careful of not underrotating the 3Lz-3Lo near the end of her program. And finally, she has to actually do a level 4 step sequence. A fall on a quad could cost her 7 points, easily. A UR on a quad could also cost her 4-5 points (base value + GOE) so if she falls once on a quad, or has a quad UR, she's on roughly even footing with Rika. If she then gets a downgrade on a step sequence, that's enough for Rika to win.

Basically, it's going to be a VERY close competition tomorrow. Rika is in good shape, and I would say is at even money odds to win the event.

 

[yume]

Bravo Rika:thumbsup: That was magnificient. I still don't like the music but she sells the program.
Good skate for Marin too given the circumstances. I just would have liked her pcs to be a bit higher.