2019-20 Japanese ladies' figure skating

[zanadude]

True, the rules pretty much say they can pick whoever they want. It doesn't matter how many of the criteria you have, as long as you meet one you can be picked. But in practice they usually go with the top three. Remember 2 years ago, Higuchi had the most qualifications, but they took Sakamoto because she did better at Nats.

They never said why they chose Sakamoto. That was obviously part of the decision-making process, but we have no way of knowing to what extent.

And Sakamoto did have other qualifications besides Nationals placement. Anyone other than Kihira, Miyahara, or Sakamoto won't have that claim to make...which is why I said that, realistically, their only chance to make the team is to win Nationals outright.

 

[Giu]

I believe it was a combination of many things that includes: National pressure, growing, Hamada's declarations about her, her lack of training, her change of coach and technique, her change of time training with Raphael, her lack of confidence. I think that are the main reasons why she is not longer the next thing of japan since 3 seasons

What do you mean by “Hamada’s declarations about her”? I think I missed something

 

[zanadude]

What do you mean by “Hamada’s declarations about her”? I think I missed something

Here is a sample:
https://planethanyu.com/topic/478-team-japan/?do=findComment&comment=128552

 

[Joekaz]

They never said why they chose Sakamoto. That was obviously part of the decision-making process, but we have no way of knowing to what extent.

And Sakamoto did have other qualifications besides Nationals placement. Anyone other than Kihira, Miyahara, or Sakamoto won't have that claim to make...which is why I said that, realistically, their only chance to make the team is to win Nationals outright.

If Higuchi makes the podium she would go, unless Kihira was the one left out, which is very unlikely. The others maybe not, but Sakamoto was not good this season and Miyahara only slightly better. Countries want their nationals to mean something.

 

[Joekaz]

They never said why they chose Sakamoto. That was obviously part of the decision-making process, but we have no way of knowing to what extent.

And Sakamoto did have other qualifications besides Nationals placement. Anyone other than Kihira, Miyahara, or Sakamoto won't have that claim to make...which is why I said that, realistically, their only chance to make the team is to win Nationals outright.

There was no other skating reason to chose Sakamoto over Higuchi other than nationals. Higuchi was superior in every other criteria that season.

 

[Skater Boy]

If Higuchi makes the podium she would go, unless Kihira was the one left out, which is very unlikely. The others maybe not, but Sakamoto was not good this season and Miyahara only slightly better. Countries want their nationals to mean something.

True to a point because we also know at Nationals the marks become very generous; the tech calls very kind. Remember the 6.0 days - a fall in the US and you could still get a 6. I am not sure how you could go to the media and legitimately say yu are thrilled about the six.

 

[zanadude]

If Higuchi makes the podium she would go, unless Kihira was the one left out, which is very unlikely. The others maybe not, but Sakamoto was not good this season and Miyahara only slightly better. Countries want their nationals to mean something.

I don't know what you base that on. Miyahara is the first alternate to the GPF, hardly a disaster. Sakamoto also fared well in the GP season. Kihira made the finals, but did so without winning an event.

The gulf between Kihira, Miyahara, and Sakamoto this season is not so wide. But the gulf between them and everyone else is. Higuchi will not get picked with a third place finish, and I don't think second would help her either.

Nationals matters because the winner gets an automatic pick, not because a third place finish outshines an entire season's body of work.

 

[Joekaz]

True to a point because we also know at Nationals the marks become very generous; the tech calls very kind. Remember the 6.0 days - a fall in the US and you could still get a 6. I am not sure how you could go to the media and legitimately say yu are thrilled about the six.

Kind tech calls will help Miyahara more than Sakamoto or Higuchi. But this is all under the assumption that Higuchi can get back to form, which she hasn't shown in two years. Otherwise its a mute point. Yukoi or Yamashita are no threat to the top three.

 

[lzxnl]

I don't know what you base that on. Miyahara is the first alternate to the GPF, hardly a disaster. Sakamoto also fared well in the GP season. Kihira made the finals, but did so without winning an event.

The gulf between Kihira, Miyahara, and Sakamoto this season is not so wide. But the gulf between them and everyone else is. Higuchi will not get picked with a third place finish, and I don't think second would help her either.

Nationals matters because the winner gets an automatic pick, not because a third place finish outshines an entire season's body of work.

How much of a gulf do you need there to be? According to the ISU's Season's Best list:
Rika Kihira: 231.84 (NHK)
Satoko Miyahara: 211.18 (Cup of China)
Kaori Sakamoto: 202.47 (Skate America)
Rino Matsuike: 193.03 (Riga, Junior)
Yuhana Yokoi: 191.90 (CS Finlandia)
Wakaba Higuchi: 181.32 (Skate America)

I don't know about you, but a 20 point deficit isn't going to be erased overnight. Given that these are season's bests over two or three competitions, I would argue that Rika, who isn't even jumping lutzes, is in a tier of her own, and then the rest. A clean skate from Yokoi could easily keep her competitive with Miyahara, especially if the latter is dinged with URs. Even Japan's top performing junior is around the same scoring range as the rest.

Now imagine Rika with lutzes and a 4S against the current field. That would be more than a little unbalanced.

 

[lusterfan]

How much of a gulf do you need there to be? According to the ISU's Season's Best list:
Rika Kihira: 231.84 (NHK)
Satoko Miyahara: 211.18 (Cup of China)
Kaori Sakamoto: 202.47 (Skate America)
Rino Matsuike: 193.03 (Riga, Junior)
Yuhana Yokoi: 191.90 (CS Finlandia)
Wakaba Higuchi: 181.32 (Skate America)

I don't know about you, but a 20 point deficit isn't going to be erased overnight. Given that these are season's bests over two or three competitions, I would argue that Rika, who isn't even jumping lutzes, is in a tier of her own, and then the rest. A clean skate from Yokoi could easily keep her competitive with Miyahara, especially if the latter is dinged with URs. Even Japan's top performing junior is around the same scoring range as the rest.

Now imagine Rika with lutzes and a 4S against the current field. That would be more than a little unbalanced.

Internationally, Rika's PCS have risen to the point where she's surpassed Kaori and Satoko. She's been consistent (while the others haven't) and so she's getting the bonus. Along with Rika's relatively stable 3A, she'd have to fall more than once (even without lutzes) to drop below the other two at their best. Kaori has a lutz handicap and weaker BV, while Satoko gets showered with <<<<<. However, it will be interesting to see how Japan scores them because they tend to honor seniority in scoring. Satoko will undoubtedly get the PCS advantage, and may possibly not get the <<<<. Even considering that though, Kaori and Satoko will need to be perfect with a lenient panel in order to beat an underperformed Rika. It may get dicey if Kaori or Satoko finish a close 1-2, and Wakaba/Yuhana/Mako finish 3rd, leaving Rika in 4th. Kaori would get the guaranteed spot for her win, Satoko is close enough as well (and they love Satoko), so she gets the 2nd. I don't think they would dare to leave Rika off, but Japan likes being strict with honoring these things ... so who knows?

In my opinion, Kaori has the least secure spot of the top 3 (just comparative to the other two, because I'd say her spot is still very secure). Satoko gets held up nationally, and Rika is Rika. If Kaori underperforms, someone else may be able to swoop in and outscore Kaori at Nationals!

 

[jenm]

I would think they'd send Satoko and Kaori with Rika to Worlds.
They have the PCS and WR. A clean Kaori is also competitive and Satoko finally gets the PCS she deserves (albeit still a couple pts lower than what she should get imo).
Although I agree that Kaori's spot is the one most in ??? if someone performs better than her, say Wakaba performs lights out and has a 3A.

 

[Joekaz]

I don't know what you base that on. Miyahara is the first alternate to the GPF, hardly a disaster. Sakamoto also fared well in the GP season. Kihira made the finals, but did so without winning an event.

The gulf between Kihira, Miyahara, and Sakamoto this season is not so wide. But the gulf between them and everyone else is. Higuchi will not get picked with a third place finish, and I don't think second would help her either.

Nationals matters because the winner gets an automatic pick, not because a third place finish outshines an entire season's body of work.

I base it on what their expectations were coming in to the season and the amount of mistakes they made compared to what they are capable of. Neither performed up to expectations. If Higuchi can perform to her level of 2 seasons ago and finishes in the top three, she will have the scoring potential and past success to allow her to be selected. With a 3A it would be be certain.

 

[zanadude]

I base it on what their expectations were coming in to the season and the amount of mistakes they made compared to what they are capable of. Neither performed up to expectations.

And Higuchi did?

Anyway, it's pointless to further speculate on hypotheticals. The most likely scenario is that Kihira, Miyahara, and Sakamoto make up the podium in some order (probably as written), upon which none of that talk even matters.

 

[zanadude]

Curious question because I am new to all the Japanese ladies except Rika.

Was Marin like Rika back in the day? Was she the new hope and promise of Japanese Ladies? She seems pretty famous and I know she also had Mie Hamada as a coach at some point.

Did she have Rika's jump ability too at some point?

Marin is a very unique case. Imagine being the older sister of Shirley Temple, and all the hype that comes your way when you decide to put yourself in the public eye...and then actually living up to that hype for a little while. On top of that, she looked like a star, kind of like a Japanese Gracie Gold.

From that point on, I think it was a combination of media obligations that prevented her from training properly, and an inflated image of herself from all the attention that led her to believe that she didn't need to train so much to succeed. And here we are today.

I've said it before, but I'd like to see her form an ice dance team with her brother. That would be the best way for both of them to stay relevant.

 

[ladyjane]

Mai is at the point where we should be simply wishing that she would become healthy. I would not at all be surprised if she never competes again.

It doesn't matter where Marin Honda is. The only person that can fix Marin Honda's problems is Marin Honda.

This makes me so sad. I love Mai, of course when she's on. Poor girl (lady). I hope she will become healthy, but her issues aren't easily passed by. Saddening.

 

[RafaelAstro]

Someone know what happened with Nana Araki? poor girl, she had amazing programs this season and I was sure she was going to medal again at junior nationals, Rino Matsuike didn't even competed, did she? Maybe her injury was more serious than we tought, she was crearly another potential medalist. The good thing with japanese junior girls this season is that Mana Kawabe is improving and that almost clean skating she did at junior nationals with that triple axel was amazing, I wish she could get a medal at youth winter olympic games though its hard.

 

[zanadude]

Kawabe is such an amazing story. She didn't even advance to the free skate at Jumior Nationals last season, and this season she goes out and wins it. Really hope she can make it to the final group at Nationals

 

[Joekaz]

And Higuchi did?

Anyway, it's pointless to further speculate on hypotheticals. The most likely scenario is that Kihira, Miyahara, and Sakamoto make up the podium in some order (probably as written), upon which none of that talk even matters.

That is true. The point is none of them other than Kihira met expectations, thus only Kihira is safe. But you are correct those three are obviously the most likely.

 

[RafaelAstro]

I expect a great comeback from Mako at nationals, Yuhana as well, I hope japanese federation send different ladies for 4cc compared to WC as last year with only the champion at nationals competing at both, for example if Rika is the champion (most probably) she competes at 4CC and WC Satako and Kaori being 2nd/3rd compete only at WC and 4th/5th compete at 4CC (that could be between Yuhana,Mako,Wakaba probably), I don't know if Yuna will be at best at nationals but I expect an improvement and for Marin I don't know what to think

 

[Joekaz]

I expect a great comeback from Mako at nationals, Yuhana as well, I hope japanese federation send different ladies for 4cc compared to WC as last year with only the champion at nationals competing at both, for example if Rika is the champion (most probably) she competes at 4CC and WC Satako and Kaori being 2nd/3rd compete only at WC and 4th/5th compete at 4CC (that could be between Yuhana,Mako,Wakaba probably), I don't know if Yuna will be at best at nationals but I expect an improvement and for Marin I don't know what to think

Hopefully everyone skates their seasons best at Nationals. It seemed to me most of the girls realize their tech content isn't competitive with the Russians, so they were aiming to peak at nationals and not too worried over the GP season.