Well... please note that this is just my opinion and what I am saying now it is not to start a discussion which one of those amazing ladies is the most talented or has the best skills and that I try to put aside my personal preferences in that matter.
Pointwise, Kamila is an upgraded version of Anna and Alena: she has jumps, she has GOE and PCS and great PR. Sasha Trusova is a record breaker, even if she has little skating skills and pops 1 or 2 quads, she will still place ahead everyone in terms of base value. So, unless one of them is injured I do not really think that Kostornaia has a chance. I think this COVID situation hurt her the most: it was her year, she'd probably be a World Champion by now.
I hope it is not a stupid question, but shouldn't Russians have 3 spots, not 2?
I am not going to say positively I think she can win, because we haven't seen her this season, and she had far less time to prepare than everyone else for test skates given the coaching change. However, rumor is that the 3A is restored, and Plushenko is pushing the quads. We haven't seen these elements and what matters it what happens in competition. But to me, Aliona with quads and a 3A will be unbeatable, even by Kamila. She has an innate performative ability that imo no one can really take away. It is not even inherent to skating skills or any other PCS component which of course she excels in, but rather something *extra*.
I also am curious if Kamila's quads will last? She is already very tall and her technique is a little scary if I'm being honest (someone can quote this and complain about how I'm wrong, we've had this discussion before and I will not rehash). Or rather, if they do last, will she be able to maximize them the way Sasha can? Aliona's 3A was solid, her 3F is so roomy that even at the show in February she only fell because she could not control its height and speed. It was TOO high, TOO fast, covered TOO much ice. I don't see her long term having issues with it because she is, save the periodic edge issues when she's nervous actually a very good jumper technically, if not completely textbook 100% of the time. And her landings don't seem to be as forceful as Anya's or Kamila's. And Anya... also something there performance wise like Aliona, if not a little more academic but she has a mental block with the 3A challenging her now. So much potential that one imagines, what if all 4 get quads and the 3A? Then it is only a matter of the day, isn't it? No way to know who will win. Though this is of course all speculation.
And anyways, it is only a question of curiosity. I cannot bear to think that any of the four will miss out on the Olympics. It makes me wish the way qualifications are done would be reworked. IMO this merits a broader discussion. Yes, Russia gets three positions. But they deserve more.
My opinion is that the qualifications should be based on world ranking and then nationality. So pull the top ten skaters automatically. If it is all Russians, Japanese, Koreans then so be it. And then every nation gets the number of spots they would normally get in the current system UNLESS they have already maximized those spots in the top 10. So if the world rankings have Aliona, Anya, Sasha, and Kamila as the top four, then they get those four spots. They have surpassed their three. If the Americans get two spots and only Tennell is in the top ten, then they select a second skater to add. This should also extend to gymnastics, where the Americans get screwed the way the Russians do in figure skating. Where qualifying for the national team is harder than medaling at worlds. But I only dream ):
