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- Jan 31, 2019
I share the exact same sentiment. Luckily, it is merely improbable, not impossible.
2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating
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- Feb 27, 2014
You paint an interesting scenario and it makes sense. I also think in the near future the major championships in figure skating should be spread out instead of doing them in four or five days do you have to pay for a two-week period. This way you can have one discipline in the locker room at one time instead of all four disciplines in the locker room at the same time.
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- Dec 5, 2015
I don't think it is necessarily improbable at all. For the simple reason that none of the ladies are at their best right now. Neither Valieva nor Sasha have landed a clean 3A in competition. Valieva almost always falls on one of her quads, she has an unstable 3Lz along with the worst combo jumps of the top ladies here. Her wonderful spins make up for the less than ideal combos but not for the falls. ( Although the rippons seem to be helping her). She won't get bonus points at nationals. Anna has been UR a number of her jumps. She received very generous calls early in the season, but will that continue at Russian nationals? Aliona isn't competitive without her 3A, and Tuk might be clean but will likely not get high PCS/GOE. Thus, in my opinion, this competition is really completely up in the air. Sasha or Valieva seem the most likely to win but who knows? It is anyone's game. Maybe Anna will win again? She tends have her best competition at Russian nationals each year.
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- Oct 14, 2017
Well it seems like most of the top skaters have had some type of disruption to their preparation time with the exceptions being Valieva and Trusova (unless I'm missing something) so she's not the only person in that situation.
She's lovely but not only will she need to be clean but probably would need several other skaters to likely make multiple mistakes if she doesn't whip out a triple axel or a quad.
Math Completed so here is my verdict.
I have Assumed the following
1) Sasha hits 3A in short and 4S, 4Lz, 4T+3T and 4T+Eu+3S in free
2) Anna hits 4F+3T and 4F in fee (2nd 4F replaces 3F)
3) Kamilla hits 3A in short and 4T+3T and 4T in free
4) Everyone recives their so far highest GOE of the season on every element and their highest PCS so far
5) No one loses any levels or misses any 2nd half combos
6) Jumps that have yet to be landed with positive GOE this season have been given GOE 0. This is 3A (Sasha and Kamilla), 3F+3T (in free Sasha), 4F+3T (Anna), 3Lz (in free Kamilla). Obviously all these jumps will recive higher GOE if landed cleanly but I didnt feel it was my place to try and predict it.
Short program
Kamilla TES 48,54 PCS 37,20 TSS 85,74
Anna TES 43,84 PCS 37,44 TSS 81,28
Sasha TES 45,07 PCS 34,96 TSS 80,03
Free
Sasha TES 110,97 PCS 71,36 TSS 182,33
Anna TES 96,28 PCS 74,48 TSS 170,76
Kamilla TES 88,7 PCS 74,32 TSS 168,88
Total
Sasha 262,36
Kamilla 254,62
Anna 252,04
There are a couple of things to be said here. Firstly all the jumps I assumed would get GOE 0 will more likely give an extra +3 points to Sasha +4 points to Anna and +5 points to Kamilla. Also their PCS would probably rise slightly since most of their PCS have been for skates with one or more falls/ major step out
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Im Actually surprised by how far ahead this put Sasha. She could probaly afford to have 2 step outs /iffy landings across both programs and still come out ahead. (Alternatively lose 2-3 steps or spin levels)
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- Mar 16, 2019
There’s not much arguing to be done against 4 quads, my friend! However interesting that even with 3A for Kamila, battle between Anna and Kamila looks to be a close one. Everything will depend on Anna’s shape. If she’s not ready for 2 quads (which is a very probable scenario), she likely will settle for bronze.
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- Mar 20, 2019
No disrespect to Tuktik. I'm one of the ones that has consistently supported her and acknowledged her improvements unlike a lot of others that show support when convenient. The fact is she's 9 years older than a 15 year old. It's just a fact. Of course I want her to be ready, but it isn't as easy physically or mentally.
- Joined
- Mar 20, 2019
On GOE, as both Kamila and Sasha have 0 for a 3A and 3Lz/3F, and Anna has it for a high GOE 4F, could we say the extra points for GOE would be similar? Then it would cancel out and not even be a factor. Thank you so much for this analysis!
Shcherbakova is more competitive and has been able to risk less because she does the highest valued quads and she has been doing it clean; her quad flip at the cup events gave her more points than every quad that Valieva has attempted this year and only 3 of Trusova's quads outscored hers - and 2 of those quads were in combination and back-loaded.
Of course all this figuring is done assuming that everyone is clean which I doubt happens.
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- Jan 31, 2019
Valieva’s PCSs though will pull her through if the scores come tight in the top 5-6. Obviously, technical panel and judges will be the deciding factor there, and maybe, just maybe, Valieva’s programs that are not crowd pleasing vs. Trusova’s far better choices might help this year. But, again, the RNG on jumping passes is stacked against Trusova, as well as the unfortunate pressure applied to both of the ladies. In that respect, Scherbakova is always a little luckier because she is not a social media magnet.
I also wanted to add as an afterthought that for me (personal opinion) a podium that has any placement of Trusova, Scherbakova and Valieva would reflect the reality of those ladies being ahead of the others in senior group, irregardless of how lovely or deserving the other competitors are.
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Below is a breakdown based on the scoring sheets, I just did basics though, there were some under-rotations that I don't have tabulated out. Overall she has a decent success rate but the issue has been that the competitions where she couldn't afford to be falling/popping very many jumps has been when she's made the most errors.
2019-2020 Season
| Competition | Attempted | Landed | Falls | Popped |
| Japan Open | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nepela Trophy | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Skate Canada | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| GP Russia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| GPF | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 (4S into a 2S) |
| Nationals | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Europeans | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 27 | 19 | 6 | 2 |
2020-2021 Season
| Competition | Attempted | Landed | Falls | Popped |
| Cup Stage 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Cup Stage 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| GP Russia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Total | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
^^^
So it looks like she's basically no better this year with the quad then she was last year. At least she's consistent although the way people compare the seasons one would have thought there was a big difference. People often forget (or willingly ignore?) how well she was doing last season up until the GPF.
The way the chart goes it would make sense just to attempt 3 because outside of the Japan Open she doesn't ever land the 4th but I guess despite her improvements she's likely never going to get the GOE and points on the other stuff Kamila and Anna get so having only 3 would be like only having 2 which puts her at a disadvantage because they attempt 2 as well. The 4th is obviously there (excluding her personal ambitions) to give her breathing room for mistakes but having it really does add to the risk of things going really bad.
Has there been any explanation for the Rostelecom meltdown? In her interview right after she said she "didn't know what happened" and then people online were claiming she was injured but considering the illness that spread through Plushenko's camp after I'm guessing she was just not feeling well?
So it looks like she's basically no better this year with the quad then she was last year. At least she's consistent although the way people compare the seasons one would have thought there was a big difference. People often forget (or willingly ignore?) how well she was doing last season up until the GPF.
The way the chart goes it would make sense just to attempt 3 because outside of the Japan Open she doesn't ever land the 4th but I guess despite her improvements she's likely never going to get the GOE and points on the other stuff Kamila and Anna get so having only 3 would be like only having 2 which puts her at a disadvantage because they attempt 2 as well. The 4th is obviously there (excluding her personal ambitions) to give her breathing room for mistakes but having it really does add to the risk of things going really bad.
Has there been any explanation for the Rostelecom meltdown? In her interview right after she said she "didn't know what happened" and then people online were claiming she was injured but considering the illness that spread through Plushenko's camp after I'm guessing she was just not feeling well?
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2019
There was kinesiotape on the big thigh muscle of the jumping leg. Perhaps fallen one time too many, or even on the heel of the blade, in training?
According to those same boards and sources, Trusova sort of trains herself. It is often told she is headstrong and stubborn when it comes to training regime. Unless Aleksandra has exclusive ice time and nobody is allowed in, any parent of the other kids skating on the same ice could post on those message boards and discussion fora, telling the truth or making up lies.
Mikhaylov is only 22 years old and was an ice dancer. One should consider if he really has the experience to deal with a high level athlete like Trusova with her whole arsenal of jumps, and the authority to deal with her parents when it comes to program content decisions.
Trusova left Khrustalniy for a reason after all and the fiasco of Rostelekom with "I didn't know what happened" and "here, have an icecream" makes one wonder if she really understands what needs to be done. Then there are these all consuming ambitions that perhaps prevail over common sense ....
We'll know in a week if Aleksandra has stabilised her mind and is able to deliver the needed content under greater pressure still against fierce contenders that fully know her weaknesses.
A lot probably depends on starting order in the short program. It will be most interesting for sure.
According to those same boards and sources, Trusova sort of trains herself. It is often told she is headstrong and stubborn when it comes to training regime. Unless Aleksandra has exclusive ice time and nobody is allowed in, any parent of the other kids skating on the same ice could post on those message boards and discussion fora, telling the truth or making up lies.
Mikhaylov is only 22 years old and was an ice dancer. One should consider if he really has the experience to deal with a high level athlete like Trusova with her whole arsenal of jumps, and the authority to deal with her parents when it comes to program content decisions.
Trusova left Khrustalniy for a reason after all and the fiasco of Rostelekom with "I didn't know what happened" and "here, have an icecream" makes one wonder if she really understands what needs to be done. Then there are these all consuming ambitions that perhaps prevail over common sense ....
We'll know in a week if Aleksandra has stabilised her mind and is able to deliver the needed content under greater pressure still against fierce contenders that fully know her weaknesses.
A lot probably depends on starting order in the short program. It will be most interesting for sure.
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My guess is that it would be approximately +3 (+1 for 2nd half combo and +2 for 3A) for Sasha +4 (for the 4F) For Anna and +5 (+2 for 3A and +2 for 2nd half combo) for Kamilla but in the end it will differ by less than 2 points. And dont forget this is all just theory anywhay. Heither Sasha, Anna or Kamilla has to this day ever delivered the content I based by analysis on.
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- Mar 20, 2019
Your calculations have been incredible so far...on Kamila is it not +2 +2 so +4? With Sasha, I think the GOE would be closer to 1.7 if she does it well. Although on that note I would say Kamila would get +2.2 for a clean 3Lz.
My thoughts on the other page considered Sasha doing 3Lz-3Lo, but I hope for 3F-3T. It would be so much safer, and as you've shown, still enough to win. On your calculations, if Sasha did the 3Lz-3Lo, but replaced the 4S with a 3F, do you think she would win then too?
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- Jan 12, 2014
All these hypotheticals..... what is the skate order?
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