I think we can compare Valieva with Kostornaia's layout from last year. Valieva will have a 3A in the short and two 4Ts in the long. It's a little more in BV than Kostornaia's three 3A's.
Valieva will also, like Kostornaia, be showered with great GOEs and high PCS.
It took Shcherbakova three high value quads to beat Kostornaia at Nationals last year. And it was only just...
Trusova doesn't have Shcherbakova's spins and PCS, so yes, Trusova probably needs four quads to beat a clean Valieva.
But then again, Valieva has never landed those three ultra jumps clean. And her 3Lz has been a bit wonky as well.
And at this point, Shcherbakova will probably go for two quads and will most likely have stamina problems so I don't think she's in the mix for gold.
Anyways, it will be exciting to see how it all plays out.