2020-21 US Women's Figure Skating

[Mathman]

Particularly if she can regain the jumps she had before.

That's the question, of course. What comes easy for a tiny 13-year-old. a couple years later it might pose a different kind of challenge.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

That's the question, of course. What comes easy for a tiny 13-year-old. a couple years later it might pose a different kind of challenge.

I could see her getting back the 3A because it's been a comfortable jump for her in the past. Like Mao, Alysa will probably have to modify her technique substantially to get more height now that she doesn't have the body of a 13 year old child, but she could do it. It's harder for me to see her doing quads in the future. However, an Alysa with a 4-triple SP and 8-triple LP would have done very well at Senior Worlds this year, so there's no reason to think that type of content won't compete for medals next year.

 

[Amei]

However, an Alysa with a 4-triple SP and 8-triple LP would have done very well at Senior Worlds this year, so there's no reason to think that type of content won't compete for medals next year.

Sigh, I don't know if we can necessarily assume Worlds 2021 is a to-be-expected outcome of competition, this year was really weird for the skaters.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Sigh, I don't know if we can necessarily assume Worlds 2021 is a to-be-expected outcome of competition, this year was really weird for the skaters.

It was, but the quads the skaters are doing are high risk elements. Anna and Rika both landed theirs at Nationals but missed them at Worlds. With Olympic pressure, it's almost certain that some who plan quads won't execute them successfully.

 

[Colonel Green]

Sigh, I don't know if we can necessarily assume Worlds 2021 is a to-be-expected outcome of competition, this year was really weird for the skaters.

When the ultra-C elements (where did that suddenly ubiquitous phrase come from?) are limited to only 4 skaters, only two of them have to have an off-competition for somebody with only the standard triples to have a crack at the podium.

 

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When the ultra-C elements (where did that suddenly ubiquitous phrase come from?) are limited to only 4 skaters, only two of them have to have an off-competition for somebody with only the standard triples to have a crack at the podium.

This one has been in use in Russia for years. Ultra-c are 3A and quads in figure skating. But the term was devised in the 60s in Japan. It referred to unique elements in gymnastics. There is a 1965 article in a Russian magazine. An abstract:

"at the Tokyo Olympics, the impression was different. It was no longer enough to keep your legs impeccably straight. It was required to show something that the viewer would lose the breath. A central element appeared in the exercise - a trick. The Japanese called it "ultra-C".

 

[jenaj]

My impression -- just guessing here - is that the powers that be see a lot of up side to Karen's skating, while they hope that the challenges that hold her back can be met with only minor tweeking. This gives her higher potential than Bradie or Mariah, who seem to be maxed out. Alyssa appears to be a long shot at this point. Amber is not yet regarded as a top-rung contender, but who knows what a year will bring?.

I don't see why Alysa is a long shot. She was third at Nationals, in a year when she is readjusting. Unless she does poorly on the GP, I think she is a lock for the team.

 

[chuckm]

Alysa's growth cycle has just begun----it won't be over for at least two more years. Remember how Mirai kept growing and changing in the years following her National title at 13? There were years when she couldn't seem to get her skating together again.

 

[Lzbee]

Alysa's shown she's pretty consistent with a standard triple jump layout which is already enough to be considered a top contender among US ladies imo.

 

[lurkerghost1]

I like Alysa's chances as well but she makes Karen look like Midori Ito in terms of rotating jumps. And I think the point about Mirai is very true, there's no reason to assume Alysa won't be in the middle of a growth spurt next year again.

When the ultra-C elements (where did that suddenly ubiquitous phrase come from?) are limited to only 4 skaters, only two of them have to have an off-competition for somebody with only the standard triples to have a crack at the podium.

Yes at worlds there were only 4 skaters with Ultra-C, and none of them had clean competitions. But next Olympics we can still assume there will be 3 Russians + Rika with Ultra-C, but also probably Young You, another Japanese skater (I expect at least one of Higuchi/Kawabe/Matsuike to make the team with a 3A), maybe Amber Glenn with a 3A herself, etc. So I think it will be harder than ever for a standard program to make the podium.

will Karen keep delivering and add in a 3+3 or will the pressure get to her again?

Strictly from a points perspective, Karen would be better off replacing the 3Lo2T with a second 2A3T instead of trying to add a 3-3 to the free. That would actually give her the best layout possible for a standard program.
I thought maybe her PCS was hurt by not doing a 3-3 in the long program, but she got the same PCS in the short program with the 3-3 so I'm skeptical as to how much the judges actually care.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Yes at worlds there were only 4 skaters with Ultra-C, and none of them had clean competitions. But next Olympics we can still assume there will be 3 Russians + Rika with Ultra-C, but also probably Young You, another Japanese skater (I expect at least one of Higuchi/Kawabe/Matsuike to make the team with a 3A), maybe Amber Glenn with a 3A herself, etc. So I think it will be harder than ever for a standard program to make the podium.

Those hard elements don't matter much unless the skaters hit everything else, too. The Russians are good at pulling themselves together after mistakes on difficult jumps, but the others tend to come undone. Amber, Young, and Wakaba didn't even make their respective world teams despite being able to do a 3A, so I'm not sure why anyone would think they'd be unbeatable against someone with solid 3 and 7 triple programs.

 

[jenaj]

That's the question, of course. What comes easy for a tiny 13-year-old. a couple years later it might pose a different kind of challenge.

She already has her triples back again (and showed big improvement in skating skills). She doesn't need more to make the US ladies team.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I don't see why Alysa is a long shot. She was third at Nationals, in a year when she is readjusting. Unless she does poorly on the GP, I think she is a lock for the team.

I wouldn't go as far as saying she's a lock, but she's definitely in the mix. Mariah had a rough Nationals but she's been pretty good everywhere else the last few years, and if they're doing the same technical content I'd give Mariah the edge. I also can't see a 3A-less Alysa beating Bradie and Karen if they skate well. At this point, I think the short-list is those four plus Amber. I do hope at least one of Alysa or Amber rise to the challenge and master the harder jumps, because with a 3A they would be a good pick to do the SP in the team event.

 

[Skater Boy]

I don't see why Alysa is a long shot. She was third at Nationals, in a year when she is readjusting. Unless she does poorly on the GP, I think she is a lock for the team.

I thought she won pewter - th . Regardless she is in the mix though who knows in 10 mos what will happen. Karen, Mariah, Bradie and Amber all are capable of beating her. I guess for Gracie fans if she skated like she did in 2014 she too could beat Ms. Liu.

 

[macy]

She already has her triples back again (and showed big improvement in skating skills). She doesn't need more to make the US ladies team.

i think this is pretty true, she doesn't need a 3A or any quads to make the olympic team. however she has to be squeaky clean, be consistent and keep showing big improvements in PCS (as she did at nationals), and she does need her big jumps if she wants to be competitive with the top skaters in the world.

Alysa showed a *ton* of improvement by nationals in all areas of her skating, and Jeremy Abbott had nothing but positive things to say about the direction her skating was heading (and the improvements she already made in such a short time). it sounds like they have a good plan the next 10 months and i think she will do fine.

 

[oly2018]

I don't think Alysa is even close to being a lock. We have no idea how she will score with a senior international panel. She definitely looked better at nationals, but her performance quality was still pretty young. On the jgp, she was often hammered for rotations, so judges may be looking for that. She has a lot to prove before she is named to an Olympic team.

 

[katymay]

I could see her getting back the 3A because it's been a comfortable jump for her in the past. Like Mao, Alysa will probably have to modify her technique substantially to get more height now that she doesn't have the body of a 13 year old child, but she could do it. It's harder for me to see her doing quads in the future. However, an Alysa with a 4-triple SP and 8-triple LP would have done very well at Senior Worlds this year, so there's no reason to think that type of content won't compete for medals next year.

I think she will get the 3A back. She thrives on competition-seems to enjoy it and not suffer from nerves-so I suspect she will be sent to Germany to get the 3d spot.

 

[Mathman]

When the ultra-C elements (where did that suddenly ubiquitous phrase come from?) are limited to only 4 skaters, only two of them have to have an off-competition for somebody with only the standard triples to have a crack at the podium.

To add to Samkrut's expl;anation, I belive the idea (in Japanese gymnastics in the 1960s) was that there were A level tricks (elementary). B level (intermediate) and C level (advanced). Ultra-C was "on beyond C."

It would have been cool if they had been called Blue, Indigo, Violet and Ultra-violet levels.

 

[katymay]

I don't think Alysa is even close to being a lock. We have no idea how she will score with a senior international panel. She definitely looked better at nationals, but her performance quality was still pretty young. On the jgp, she was often hammered for rotations, so judges may be looking for that. She has a lot to prove before she is named to an Olympic team.

Not sure about the Olympic team, but I think she will be sent to Germany to get the 3d slot. She is dependable, never melts down, as I said, thrives in competition settings. Her BV is certain to be at a top level. Amber and Mariah-too risky.

 

[Amei]

Not sure about the Olympic team, but I think she will be sent to Germany to get the 3d slot. She is dependable, never melts down, as I said, thrives in competition settings. Her BV is certain to be at a top level. Amber and Mariah-too risky.

You are putting a lot of stock in a very limited amount of data, and the only senior competitions she's going to have under her belt is domestic competitions.