Actually, Amber could score over 210 without too much trouble with a stronger SP.. confident jumps not nervous ones, getting her levels, and having a least one more triple in her FS. Unlike many other US women she rotates when not too nervous. Now, the question is whether she will do that because her problems with competitive nerves are well documented. Hence this competition being the only time she has scored over 200 internationally.
Honestly, Karen has only scored over 200 three times internationally her entire long career. So, I wouldn't say she is extremely likely to do so consistently at every competition either. It depends on the technical caller. She could score 170 or 205 for very similar outings depending on how strict the technical calling is..
Mariah has done so 7 times ( I think) and has a higher PB than Karen or Amber, but I agree she doesn't seem terribly competitive at the moment and would also need lax technical calling.
Bradie is the one who has a lot of scores over 200. She has scored over 210 far more than any of the other US women. This is why, she is the one who many of us think will make the team if her health allows it.
Amber, Karen and Mariah better watch out for Lindsay.