If Isabeau beats her score at her next event. I don’t think she will, but it’s certainly realistic since Isabeau beat her score by a point comparing their first events.
And what would be so terrible for Adelia
"If Isabeau beats her score at her next event"? In this case, the participation of Sofia Samodelkina in the final will be under threat.
At the moment, only these seven girls have a real chance to qualify for the final:
Adelia Petrosyan (411.78 total, 1/3 places)
Sofia Samodelkina (408.06 total, 2/3 places)
Sofia Akatyeva (233.08+... , 1/.. places)
Veronika Zhilina (216.92+... , 1/.. places)
Sofia Muravyeva (208.20+... , 2/.. places)
Nastya Zinina (206.20+... , 2/.. places)
Isabeau Levito (202.35+... , 1/.. places)
Whatever criteria they choose - just total score (as it seemed to be announced), or they also somehow will take into account places too (for example, some bonus points for places) - Petrosyan is ahead of Samodelkina. Thus, Adela will not get into the top six only if two events are realized: 1) Levito will be ahead of her, and 2) also another girl not from this seven will be ahead of her. If the first event is possible (although the chances of this are not so great in my opinion), then the second event is in the "extremely unlikely" category.
Apparently there is only one candidate for such an action - Minchae Kim. If she can get higher than 219.3 points at her second stage (Baltic Cup) then she will be ahead of Adelia.** This is exactly what I consider an
"unrealistic scenario".
** This is if we are talking about the total score, if the places are also will taken into account, then this is even worse for Kim, since the best set that she can have is 1/4, which is worse than Adelya's 1/3