2021-22 Russian Women's Figure Skating

[chasingneverland]

Everyone says Liza needs to place top 3 at Rusnats (aka beat one of Anna Sasha Kamila) but I don’t think that’s true at all. If Liza consistently scores 230+ this season which she did here even without 3Lz-3T or 4T, she will have a chance of going even if she places 4th at nationals.

Why? Because if Sasha continues having skates scoring below 220 she is liable to be passed by Kihira or Sakamoto or Liu or even Hendrickx and Tennell. Heck she got 216 at US Classic and I’m not even sure I’d call that a meltdown. The point is if Russia has Kamila + Anna as a guaranteed 1-2 which seems likely, why would they risk Sasha who could either win it all or place 6th if Liza is consistently delivering bronze-worthy performances? Russia doesn’t care if it’s Kamila or Sasha winning gold but they do care if Sasha is off the podium entirely which at this point seems way more possible from a probability standpoint than Liza.

If Sasha struggles throughout the season but suddenly puts it together at Rusnats I see her being skipped over even if she places 2nd or 3rd, the risk is too high. Or even maybe she’s named to the Euros team and bombs there and then Liza in 4th is switched in. Really, if any of Kostornaia/Khromykh/Usacheva are consistently scoring 230+ they could make the team as a guaranteed bronze winner but Liza at this point seems more consistent than them.

The thing is Anna, Sasha, and Kamila can score 240+ internationally with falls/watered down skates. Khira has her own consistency/injury problems. All of them can beat a clean Sakamoto, etc even when they're not clean. Sasha had a disaster at Worlds and even then won the FS. If Sasha places 2nd or 3rd at RusNats they'll take her without a doubt. Sasha scores high internationally, even when not clean.

Also while Eteri allows her skaters to try challenging skates that they're not entirely consistent with at lower stake competitions, she has repeatedly watered down their skates preferring to rely on consistency at higher skate competitions or when they need to gain consistency. She's done that with Anna, Sasha, Kamila, and Aliona, in the past (including Aliona recently at Finlandia).

 

[lurkerghost1]

The thing is Anna, Sasha, and Kamila can score 240+ internationally with falls/watered down skates. Khira has her own consistency/injury problems. All of them can beat a clean Sakamoto, etc even when they're not clean. Sasha had a disaster at Worlds and even then won the FS. If Sasha places 2nd or 3rd at RusNats they'll take her without a doubt. Sasha scores high internationally, even when not clean.

Also while Eteri allows her skaters to try challenging skates that they're not entirely consistent with at lower stake competitions, she has repeatedly watered down their skates preferring to rely on consistency at higher skate competitions or when they need to gain consistency. She's done that with Anna, Sasha, Kamila, and Aliona, in the past (including Aliona recently at Finlandia).

Sasha's senior international scores from seasons 19-20, 20-21, and now 21-22: 238 241 234 233 225 198 217 216
Only 5/8 scores or 62% are above 220 - a mark Kihira/Sakamato/Tennell/Liu can hit when clean (and likely at least one of them will do so at the Olympics).
Let's add the domestic scores from last season, yes there is domestic judging and bonuses but not totally useless and it helps Sasha's case: 240 248 246 241 - now 75% are above 220, pretty good.
Ok not bad, BUT it's a clear downward trajectory that both Eteri and Plushenko have not been able to fix. If we drop her debut season 19-20, now none of three international scores aka 0% are above 220, and 4/7 - only 57% - are above 220 including the four domestic scores.

Now compare with Liza:
Three seasons (19-20 20-21 21-22) internationally: 214 212 205 209 221 223 220 226 233 - 4/8 or 50% above 220
Three seasons w/ added domestic scores: 204 213 204 220 226 - total 6/13 or 46% above 220 - yes this is behind Sasha.
Two seasons (19-20 20-21) international: 100% above 220 - clear upward trajectory vs. Sasha's 0%.
Two seasons international + domestic: 75% above 220 still ahead of Sasha's 57%.

Basically, outside of the first half of 19-20 season when Sasha debuted, Liza has been ahead of Sasha.

I am not saying Sasha won't break 240. In fact I expect her to go 250+ at one GP. But I also expect her to go below 220 again either at GP, GPF, Rusnats, or Euros if she makes it. Does Rusfed really want to risk losing that bronze if Liza/Aliona/Daria/Maya are consistently 220+ when they are so far ahead of the pack? If this was 2019 and Kihira was a serious favorite for a medal then yes I'd say they need to risk Sasha, but that's not the case anymore.

If Sasha continues to struggle through the season, doesn't podium at GPF, but then is clean enough at nationals to place 2nd or 3rd I'm not sure they risk her. Obviously if she wins they will take her for sure but unless her track record suddenly changes (which I hope it does and she lays down clean skate after clean skate) they're not going to help her out. Again this is all assuming Anna and Kamila are going - never count Anna out but its possible if the quads don't happen that both Sasha and Liza go.

 

[Skatesocs]

This program as it is for Aliona just does not deserve high PCS that's a fact. Her PCS for the SP for a first performance of the season is really high! And her jump GOEs so high. And spin GOEs too (which honestly surprises me). But all of this shows she has nothing to worry about with the judges. Just get better. 10 weeks is time on the table.

I mean she has more to worry about with the Russian judges, which is both funny and sad. Mostly sad.

Yeah, I think she'll be fine. Hope to see her on the third spot for the team. If not, then Trusova with 3 quads landed. If not, then a world wide power shortage.

 

[Arbitrary]

RusFed must understand the reality.
The reality sends a clear message - Sasha is interesting. Entertaining. The WOW girl!
People waits for her every time she competes. Everyone wants to see what she decided to show off today. Another quad? Combo? ORed quad, Rippon?

The rest is just "clean lines, rotations, occasional high-value jumps".
The 2-3 quad girls are ordinary those days. But the show must go on.

-----------

From the other side, to send a non-3Ax girl to Olympics means a medal down for sure.
Either Sasha makes everyone to believe the 3Ax is OK, or it will be Kostornaya or Tuktamisheva.

-----------

From the 3rd side: would she do the watered SP at Worlds clean, the Gold was her...

 

[chasingneverland]

Sasha's senior international scores from seasons 19-20, 20-21, and now 21-22: 238 241 234 233 225 198 217 216
Only 5/8 scores or 62% are above 220 - a mark Kihira/Sakamato/Tennell/Liu can hit when clean (and likely at least one of them will do so at the Olympics).
Let's add the domestic scores from last season, yes there is domestic judging and bonuses but not totally useless and it helps Sasha's case: 240 248 246 241 - now 75% are above 220, pretty good.
Ok not bad, BUT it's a clear downward trajectory that both Eteri and Plushenko have not been able to fix. If we drop her debut season 19-20, now none of three international scores aka 0% are above 220, and 4/7 - only 57% - are above 220 including the four domestic scores.

Now compare with Liza:
Three seasons (19-20 20-21 21-22) internationally: 214 212 205 209 221 223 220 226 233 - 4/8 or 50% above 220
Three seasons w/ added domestic scores: 204 213 204 220 226 - total 6/13 or 46% above 220 - yes this is behind Sasha.
Two seasons (19-20 20-21) international: 100% above 220 - clear upward trajectory vs. Sasha's 0%.
Two seasons international + domestic: 75% above 220 still ahead of Sasha's 57%.

Basically, outside of the first half of 19-20 season when Sasha debuted, Liza has been ahead of Sasha.

I am not saying Sasha won't break 240. In fact I expect her to go 250+ at one GP. But I also expect her to go below 220 again either at GP, GPF, Rusnats, or Euros if she makes it. Does Rusfed really want to risk losing that bronze if Liza/Aliona/Daria/Maya are consistently 220+ when they are so far ahead of the pack? If this was 2019 and Kihira was a serious favorite for a medal then yes I'd say they need to risk Sasha, but that's not the case anymore.

If Sasha continues to struggle through the season, doesn't podium at GPF, but then is clean enough at nationals to place 2nd or 3rd I'm not sure they risk her. Obviously if she wins they will take her for sure but unless her track record suddenly changes (which I hope it does and she lays down clean skate after clean skate) they're not going to help her out. Again this is all assuming Anna and Kamila are going - never count Anna out but its possible if the quads don't happen that both Sasha and Liza go.

The thing is that this is Liza at essentially full potential. Sasha isn't. And we KNOW Sasha doesn't need 4 or 5 quads to easily medal.

Furthermore Sasha is more than capable of getting bronze (at the least) especially because you're comparing a messy Sasha to a clean Liza, Aliona, Daria, and Maiia (as well as the others), which isn't fair.

Keep in mind that Aliona is still getting back into form and Maiia and Daria haven't even debuted internationally as seniors yet. So it's a bit disingenuous to worry about losing a bronze when the season has barely started and hasn't even started for Anna, Maiia, and Daria. Also there is no guarantee that everyone doesn't (including Liza) but potential and reputation will be taken into account.

 

[nussnacker]

The thing is Anna, Sasha, and Kamila can score 240+ internationally with falls/watered down skates. Khira has her own consistency/injury problems. All of them can beat a clean Sakamoto, etc even when they're not clean. Sasha had a disaster at Worlds and even then won the FS. If Sasha places 2nd or 3rd at RusNats they'll take her without a doubt. Sasha scores high internationally, even when not clean.

Also while Eteri allows her skaters to try challenging skates that they're not entirely consistent with at lower stake competitions, she has repeatedly watered down their skates preferring to rely on consistency at higher skate competitions or when they need to gain consistency. She's done that with Anna, Sasha, Kamila, and Aliona, in the past (including Aliona recently at Finlandia).

I agree that Sasha needs to build reputation for consistency and that it is very crucial for her to earn the ticket to Olympics. If she’s not consistent, I don’t think Rusfed will think to send her. Sotskova was consistent all season and crumbled under the pressure at Olympics. I’m sure they’ll prefer someone who can deliver no matter how high the pressure is.

But if Sasha is not consistent, it’s not Liza whom this ticket is going to, because Liza isn’t known for consistency either. It will go to someone who can podium, imo, it’s Aliona. Aliona was clearly not delivering today, but she’ll go only upward from here. I’m pretty sure this will be her worst performance of the season and she’ll deliver better skates at GPs.
Unlike Aliona, Liza delivered. This was one of the best and cleanest performances in her career, if not the best one. Liza pretty much received the max PCS she ever got (and likely will get) and with this her scores are close to being maxed out.

We’ll see how they’ll be scored at GPs, because I don’t think the scoring in Finland is representative of how things will go throughout the season.

 

[lurkerghost1]

Furthermore Sasha is more than capable of getting bronze (at the least) especially because you're comparing a messy Sasha to a clean Liza, Aliona, Daria, and Maiia (as well as the others), which isn't fair.

Keep in mind that Aliona is still getting back into form and Maiia and Daria haven't even debuted internationally as seniors yet. So it's a bit disingenuous to worry about losing a bronze when the season has barely started and hasn't even started for Anna, Maiia, and Daria. Also there is no guarantee that everyone doesn't (including Liza) but potential and reputation will be taken into account.

Yes no one is doubting that Sasha is capable of getting bronze and even gold. I am talking about Rusfed taking into account the likelihood of getting a medal. In the extremely unique current situation, where a Russian sweep is by far the most likely to occur and Kihira, Young, Liu not where they need to be to seriously challenge, Russian ladies are essentially competing against themselves.

Should someone else win bronze it will be moreso like the 3rd Russian lady losing bronze than anyone else winning it (barring major tech upgrades from someone else). And who is most likely to lose bronze? Sasha. Aliona even with her issues in seniors has always scored 220+ in seniors until today. From a probability standpoint, it is currently true that Anna + Kamila + Liza is the most likely team to secure the sweep. Sasha needs to either start delivering 230+ regularly or hope that Kihira and co. get it together themselves such that the fed will have to risk it on her instead of the "safe" Liza (or Aliona/Daria/Maiia).

It's not a disingenuous worry at all. In 2018 Rusfed knew that gold and silver was the best they could get, that no one else was going to beat Osmond after she won the short at the GPF barring a meltdown. But this time thhey 100% do not want to be in the position of Sasha bombing, finishing off the podium below Kaori scoring 225, and then having to explain why they left Liza/Aliona/Daria at home, who wouldn't challenge for gold but would have walked away with the bronze..

I agree that Sasha needs to build reputation for consistency and that it is very crucial for her to earn the ticket to Olympics. If she’s not consistent, I don’t think Rusfed will think to send her. Sotskova was consistent all season and crumbled under the pressure at Olympics. I’m sure they’ll prefer someone who can deliver no matter how high the pressure is.

But if Sasha is not consistent, it’s not Liza whom this ticket is going to, because Liza isn’t known for consistency either. It will go to someone who can podium, imo, it’s Aliona. Aliona was clearly not delivering today, but she’ll go only upward from here. I’m pretty sure this will be her worst performance of the season and she’ll deliver better skates at GPs.
Unlike Aliona, Liza delivered. This was one of the best and cleanest performances in her career, if not the best one. Liza pretty much received the max PCS she ever got (and likely will get) and with this her scores are close to being maxed out.

We’ll see how they’ll be scored at GPs, because I don’t think the scoring in Finland is representative of how things will go throughout the season.

No, there is no guarantee it will be upward from here. I would love to see this be a turning point for her but we've said this too many times now. Liza vs. Aliona the last year is definitely advantage Liza in results and consistency. Liza beat her at Rostelecom, at Cup Finals, and now here. If Liza beats her again at Skate Canada it will firmly be in Liza's court.

Liza won't go higher in PCS but she can surely improve otherwise. She only attempted 7 triples here (no -3T), when she replaces 3Lz-2Ax w/ 3Lz-3T in first half she can add up to 2.77 pts based on previous scores. She lost up to 3.84 pts from the 3Aq-2T vs. her previous best 3A-2T, and 2.17 on the 3Lox. Lastly she only got 1 level 4 - she rarely if ever gets StSq4 but can usually get another level 4 spin. All in all that's another 9.28 points in tech she can get. Of course she won't get all her best elements at the same time but realistically with a clean performance that's still another 4-6 points. Not considering 4T because she hasn't shown it in program of course

 

[nussnacker]

Yes no one is doubting that Sasha is capable of getting bronze and even gold. I am talking about Rusfed taking into account the likelihood of getting a medal. In the extremely unique current situation, where a Russian sweep is by far the most likely to occur and Kihira, Young, Liu not where they need to be to seriously challenge, Russian ladies are essentially competing against themselves.

Should someone else win bronze it will be moreso like the 3rd Russian lady losing bronze than anyone else winning it (barring major tech upgrades from someone else). And who is most likely to lose bronze? Sasha. Aliona even with her issues in seniors has always scored 220+ in seniors until today. From a probability standpoint, it is currently true that Anna + Kamila + Liza is the most likely team to secure the sweep. Sasha needs to either start delivering 230+ regularly or hope that Kihira and co. get it together themselves such that the fed will have to risk it on her instead of the "safe" Liza (or Aliona/Daria/Maiia).

It's not a disingenuous worry at all. In 2018 Rusfed knew that gold and silver was the best they could get, that no one else was going to beat Osmond after she won the short at the GPF barring a meltdown. But this time thhey 100% do not want to be in the position of Sasha bombing, finishing off the podium below Kaori scoring 225, and then having to explain why they left Liza/Aliona/Daria at home, who wouldn't challenge for gold but would have walked away with the bronze..

No, there is no guarantee it will be upward from here. I would love to see this be a turning point for her but we've said this too many times now. Liza vs. Aliona the last year is definitely advantage Liza in results and consistency. Liza beat her at Rostelecom, at Cup Finals, and now here. If Liza beats her again at Skate Canada it will firmly be in Liza's court.

Liza won't go higher in PCS but she can surely improve otherwise. She only attempted 7 triples here (no -3T), when she replaces 3Lz-2Ax w/ 3Lz-3T in first half she can add up to 2.77 pts based on previous scores. She lost up to 3.84 pts from the 3Aq-2T vs. her previous best 3A-2T, and 2.17 on the 3Lox. Lastly she only got 1 level 4 - she rarely if ever gets StSq4 but can usually get another level 4 spin. All in all that's another 9.28 points in tech she can get. Of course she won't get all her best elements at the same time but realistically with a clean performance that's still another 4-6 points. Not considering 4T because she hasn't shown it in program of course

Knowing scoring at Skate Canada Liza likely won’t get the same PCS as in Finlandia. The PCS scoring was generous overall, but really generous to Liza in particular, in my opinion of course. She won the PCS in this competition, I just don’t think this will remain to be the pattern at other competitions, that’s all.
Her silver is very well deserved though, the placements are definitely correct, there’s no denying that.

There is no guarantee of anything, but I personally happen to firmly believe this will only be upward from here for Aliona. Liza beat her, when Aliona was spiraling downward, when she was not even doing 3-3 and doubling jumps. Since then, Aliona clearly improved. You could see it the SP. She was confident and she was pretty much close to her former self.

We can agree to disagree. It can happen that Liza will keep beating her all season, but I currently think she’ll pull herself together, and she sounded very determined to do so. She had a very fair evaluation of what happened and like she had a clear plan on how to go forward. That’s a good sign to me.

 

[flanker]

I would also remind that Liza with three triple Axels and better performance under much more reasonable scoring lost to Sakamoto with none at WTT and I expect the scoring at GP and other ISU big championships/OG will look much more like at WTT than Finlandia.

 

[PavelSky]

About who will go to the Olympics.

There is also the European Championship between RusNats and the Olympics.

The first 3 places at the RusNats will go to Euro. If someone performs unsuccessfully at the European Championship, RusFED can replace the participant with the one who took fourth place at RusNats.

I would not draw conclusions from just one competition.

 

[Arbitrary]

I'm pretty sure Liza is already on board for Olympics. It's just politically correct from every point of view.
She may participate is Teams SP and being swapped for FP.

Just keep herself healthy and fit and it's enough. No tournaments required except RusNats.

 

[Azikin]

I'm pretty sure Liza is already on board for Olympics.

I'd say wait for RusNats..

 

[PavelSky]

I'd say wait for RusNats..

I agree.
Liza was also good at the beginning of last season, but at RusNats she took only 7th place.

Selection based on the results of the Russian Cup Final this season won't work.

 

[Climb]

I'm pretty sure Liza is already on board for Olympics. It's just politically correct from every point of view.
She may participate is Teams SP and being swapped for FP.

Just keep herself healthy and fit and it's enough. No tournaments required except RusNats.

I could see that happening, but the problem is that means either Shcherbakova or Trusova won't go to Olympics
It seems a bit too much. I think being the first alternate is more realistic for Tuktamysheva

 

[Seven Sisters]

A question for the Russian speakers in this thread, if I may. I had always thought that the proper pronunciation of Tuktamysheva’s surname was (more or less) Tuk-tah-MEH-sheh-vah (accent on the third syllable.) However, the rink announcers at Finlandia consistently pronounced it as Tuk-tah-meh-SHAY-vah (accent on the fourth syllable, with a long vowel sound). Which is more correct?

 

[Mawwerg]

A question for the Russian speakers in this thread, if I may. I had always thought that the proper pronunciation of Tuktamysheva’s surname was (more or less) Tuk-tah-MEH-sheh-vah (accent on the third syllable.) However, the rink announcers at Finlandia consistently pronounced it as Tuk-tah-meh-SHAY-vah (accent on the fourth syllable, with a long vowel sound). Which is more correct?

I think third syllable accent is the most common however I remember a video where Liza introduced herself with an accent on the second one. All other cases sound really weird.

 

[Novalis]

A question for the Russian speakers in this thread, if I may. I had always thought that the proper pronunciation of Tuktamysheva’s surname was (more or less) Tuk-tah-MEH-sheh-vah (accent on the third syllable.) However, the rink announcers at Finlandia consistently pronounced it as Tuk-tah-meh-SHAY-vah (accent on the fourth syllable, with a long vowel sound). Which is more correct?

The Finlandia announcers should not be considered "a source" in the pronouncing names department. Except maybe Finnish names

 

[Seven Sisters]

The Finlandia announcers should not be considered "a source" in the pronouncing names department. Except maybe Finnish names

Thanks everyone! I was afraid I had been pronouncing her name incorrectly all these years, and wanted to correct it if so,

 

[Jontor]

As I see it. This is the power ranking of the Russian women right now.

1, Kamila
2./3. Anna/Sasha
4. Liza
5. Maiia
6. Daria
7. Alëna

At the moment, I can't see Alëna beating anyone of the top six. She had good reputation PCS in Finlandia, but if she goes like this that reputation might crumble.
There is an argument that you could swap her PCS with Gubanova (who has NO reputation PCS). If so, Gubanova would have been 3rd in Finlandia and Alëna only 5th.

Still, it's early days to say anything really. We haven't seen Anna/Sasha/Maiia/Daria yet, and I would not count out Ksenia either.
And given that there will be juniors like Akatieva et al competiting at Senior Nationals, one or two of the seven mentioned girls might end up as low as 8th-10th.

 

[Skatesocs]

I am talking about Rusfed taking into account the likelihood of getting a medal.

I don't think it's so very simple. Between someone who can very much win the gold when landing all her tech content vs someone who is "consistent" but is a lesser skater than the top Japanese and top American women (I'm talking about Alysa here before some of you @ me lol) and more than likely will lose to them if they go clean (and will be politicked against on those terms at least by the USFSA), whom will you pick? Certainly not Tuktamysheva. If they pick Trusova, they have 70% chances of bronze. If they pick Kostornaia, they might have 50% currently, can increase if she gains more confidence, and the judges will give her the most PCS of the lot. If they pick Tukt... probably 30%.