Whatifery is exactly what this is: "If she doesn’t backload the program, she doesn’t win. It’s that simple."
There's no difference between this and my "analysis" that if Alina had backloaded but had fallen on her first jump in that programme, she wouldn't have won, mutatis mutandis. Or my "analysis" that if Alina had back-loaded and had skated clean in her free, but had fallen on her first jump in her short programme, she wouldn't have won, mutatis mutandis. Or my "analysis" that if Alina had skated exactly as she did do. and so had everyone else from 2nd to 5th (mut. mut.) but Carolina had surprised everyone with a secret quad, Carolina would have won a shock gold.
In your what-if and my what-ifs and an infinite number of other what-ifs, "the margin of victory was so slim that" XYZ "was indeed the difference" that did/did not "take Alina over the top" [XYZ and did/did not according to the particular pointless what-if selected.
Without the mutatis mutandis element, any number and combination of whatiferising ifs and ans is both possible and just white noise. Why would other factors stay the same? and Why wouldn't other factors stay the same?