2021-22 Women's Skating Predictions and Rankings | Page 4 | Golden Skate

2021-22 Women's Skating Predictions and Rankings

nussnacker

one and only
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Joined
Mar 16, 2019
But she has had sub-220 in her last 3 internationals. Rostelecom, Worlds, and US Classic.

And yeah, if we were talking about scoring potential, Trusova would rival Valieva. But Trusova doesn't have a consistent 3A yet, nor has she been able to produce the performances she had in her 2019-2020 season internationally yet. It's like when she goes to international competition she gets nervous or takes the foot off the gas, or something.

Yes she did, I know. I think she’ll start doing better than that. I don’t know how many times I should repeat that…

If you really want it, ok, you changed my mind. Liza is #1 on my list now. Does that make it better?
 
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
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Guliakova beat Trusova by a tenth of a point with a sub-200 score. That is very different than Liza beating Trusova with a score of 223 to 198 at Rostelecom and 3.26 points at WC 2021 (and sure Trusova wasn't great there, but Liza fell and didn't skate her best either).

Trusova could do her recent 5-quad skate or her US Classic/Worlds skate, so she's wildly inconsistent. Also, she has had 8 international short programs and has not managed to clear 75 points in any of them, whereas Liza has cleared above 78 in her last three, and above 80 in the last two which were non-Russian internationals.

It is also very trivializing to a skater to be like "They can only win if someone else struggles. So anytime you do win against someone who struggles I'm just going to dismiss it." Liza isn't being handed wins - she's landed 3As left right and centre. She's upgraded her 3-3. She's doing her things - not her fault if others aren't doing theirs. Using results from a while ago isn't a good barometer either - we could then say the only reason Tennell/Young isn't a world silver medalist or Kihira isn't a World gold medalist is because they didn't skate as well at Worlds 2021 as they did at 2020 Four Continents.

The point of power rankings is to show who at the MOMENT you think is best in the world. If skaters are struggling, they shouldn't be ranked higher than skaters who are slaying just because their scoring potential or past skates are better. As you said Trusova/Kostornaia have yet to exhibit if they can show, internationally, the level of performance as their 2019-2020 season, but until they DO do that, edge to Tuktamysheva for the moment. It is astonishing that Alena attempted only one triple axel in Finlandia and wasn't even close, and yet Liza did THREE of them and yet people are still holding Kostornaia in higher regard.

My power rankings right now:
1. Valieva
2. Shcherbakova
3. Tuktamysheva
4. Trusova
5. Kostornaia
6. Liu
7. Sakamoto
8. Kihira
9. Hendrickx
10. Higuchi
I second everything you say. I must say I was a bit shocked when I entered the thread to find Liza being put in 10th place based on her recent results. I agree with your ranking from 1-6 atm. Trusova has yet to prove she can handle her nerves. And she doesn´t get the best PCS either, so she relies on her technical content. All her quads comes with a risk, she was injured parts of last season and couldn´t jump all the quads. That can happen again. We really don´t know yet how the coaching change has affected her. But if everything is working out and she lands her lovely quads, she will easily climb in the power ranking. But we have to see it first, she is a big question mark.

Liza has been in the field for years and she won WC before. She has a lot of experience which is really useful when it comes to competing in the biggest events. If you are going to succeed you got to have a strong mind. It doesn´t really matter what base value you have if you can´t stick to it. Being able to manage your own program is part of the game. If we are going to talk about what skaters are able to jump, we should also include Lizas 4T ;) IMO Liza and Anna are the ones who has the strongest minds now. Kamila did a good showing at Finlandia as well, but there is still a lot to come.

I´m most worried about Aliona. Based on her performance at Finlandia Trophy i´m worried and I think Liza will be ahead of her the whole season. It´s just not about the mistakes Aliona made at Finlandia, the programs doesn´t work and she really doesn´t look like she enjoys skating now. And that is really sad because she was brilliant with her old programs (before Plushy). I miss the old Aliona and if she was in her old form I would have her higher in my power rankings as well. But not now.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Yes she did, I know. I think she’ll start doing better than that. I don’t know how many times I should repeat that…

If you really want it, ok, you changed my mind. Liza is #1 on my list now. Does that make it better?
No, I'm not asking you to agree. It's fine if you have your rankings and I have mine. I just consider power rankings as what is at the present instead of what we hope for or what we think will happen. If you think Trusova will start doing better than that, it's great, but at the moment I disagree of how high some are ranking her. Like I said, if she reels off 5 quads in her next competition and gets a WR or something, or manages to get her 3A in the short program, my impression of her will change, and quite likely my rankings. But I personally don't judge based on something I haven't seen yet, and given Trusova's issues internationally it is hard to ignore that even given her massive scoring potential. For the record, I have nothing against Trusova and actually love her technical ability and lauded her 5-quad skate. But internationally speaking I'm going off of what I've just recently seen, and Tuktamysheva has just been more consistent based on the results, that's all.
 

alexocfp

Medalist
Joined
Nov 28, 2020
Country
United-States
Geez, figure skating fans are a passionate bunch. Arguments breaking out over one poster’s ranking that really doesn’t mean anything, or hold any value in the large scheme of things. Amazing.

You guys and gals never cease to amaze me; you can argue about anything. Haha
 
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chasingneverland

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 31, 2019
To each their own but I will say, it’s kinda unfair that Liza has proved herself not only at Worlds but also this Finlandia followup including posting an above-80 SP and above-159 FS (which a lot of skaters in your top 10 haven’t done ever).

I mean, not sure if she can keep it up but it’s astonishing that the standards we are holding her too that even when she’s delivering she needs to do it 3-3 times to get any credibility. I mean she is the reigning World silver medalist and has kept a super consistent 3A, while Kihira and Kostornaia are struggling to maintain/regain theirs, and yet people are so sure she’s ahead of them. She just beat Kostornaia - and by a lot. And posted a higher total score than Anna won worlds with.

I mean,but hey, Liza really needs to pay her dues more before we take her seriously.... let’s see if Liza can make the Olympic team AND medal in Beijing. Once she medals and ONLY if she medals we can maaaaybe consider moving her into the top 5 of the power rankings. :laugh:
It's BECAUSE Liza landed three 3As (pretty much her peak) and just barely beat out Anna's world's winning skates, where Anna messed up her spins and only had one quad, which she fell on. Like Liza needs a 3A SP to match Anna's 2A SP. Liza was almost perfect in the FS here and scored a 151 (landing two 3As) with higher PCS than she's ever had before. Anna fell from her only quad - 4F - and Sasha fell on two of her quads and had essentially no program at Worlds and both of them scored 152.

Actually, Liza has never gotten above 159 on a FS. Her best is 153. World's was 151 and World Team Trophy was 146 (World's was 141). Here she got a 151 (landing two 3As with no falls). (For comparison, Rika's best is 154 and Alena's best is 162 (and her Euros score with a fall is 155.) (Anna's best is 162 (with a fall on her 4F) and Sasha's best is 166 (with a fall on her 4S.))

Basically Liza was almost perfect here and Anna, Sasha, Aliona, Kamila, and Rika have ALL beaten that. In fact, Anna, Sasha, Kamila, and Aliona have beaten her score with falls.
 

chasingneverland

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 31, 2019
I wouldn't say her recent results are more like a fluke. Her last 3 international short programs have scored 81.53, 80.35, 78.86. Her last 3 international free skates have scored 151.77, 146.23, 141.60. She beat Kostornaia at Rostelcom last season, and Finlandia this season. And she beat Trusova at Rostelecom and Worlds.

I think a better way of looking at power rankings would be to ask who would you place money on right now to place higher or lower? Are you honestly willing to put money on Liza ending up behind Kostornaia or Trusova (or others people have placed Liza behind... e.g. Kihira/Sakamoto/Young/etc.). You'd think getting 220+ in all her internationals last year, including 2021 world silver, would change people's minds, but man, some of y'all are tough to please. 😏
Rostelecom wasn't international for starters last year. Yes she beat Sasha and Aliona there but both Sasha and Aliona were injured/sick.

I would put money on Liza ending up behind Sasha.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Basically Liza was almost perfect here and Anna, Sasha, Aliona, Kamila, and Rika have ALL beaten that. In fact, Anna, Sasha, Kamila, and Aliona have beaten her score with falls.
I know everyone likes to point out Anna won Worlds without a quad, but she will need it this season. If she has just jumps through the 3Lz her base value will be 6th best among the Russian seniors (if not worse) and I don't think she'll be scored as favorably on PCS and GOE. As for Liza, she can squeeze a few more points out of her LP by adding the 3Lz-3T which we saw her do in the SP.
 

chasingneverland

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 31, 2019
I know everyone likes to point out Anna won Worlds without a quad, but she will need it this season. If she has just jumps through the 3Lz her base value will be 6th best among the Russian seniors (if not worse) and I don't think she'll be scored as favorably on PCS and GOE. As for Liza, she can squeeze a few more points out of her LP by adding the 3Lz-3T which we saw her do in the SP.
Her BV won't be 6th and she has a PCS advantage over everyone but Kamila, most likely.

Finally, it's unfair to say Liza can squeeze a few more points out of her FS without pointing out that ALL of Kamila, Anna, Sasha, Aliona, and Rika HAVE. And they've actually landed it in competition. My point though is that they don't HAVE to. Kamila, Anna, and Sasha can all outscore her with watered down skates.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Finally, it's unfair to say Liza can squeeze a few more points out of her FS without pointing out that ALL of Kamila, Anna, Sasha, Aliona, and Rika HAVE. And they've actually landed it in competition. My point though is that they don't HAVE to. Kamila, Anna, and Sasha can all outscore her with watered down skates.
Sure it is. We're talking about adding an element she did the day before, whereas I don't think Anna has done a quad since Russian Nationals. Liza can't beat Anna with a quad, or Sasha with two quads, or Alena with a 3A. Her goal is to produce a steady level with her three 3As and challenge everyone else to bring their near-peak form. Personally, I'm liking Liza's chances now that she's getting those spin and PCS scores close to the best Russians.
 

Skatesocs

Final Flight
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May 16, 2020
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chasingneverland

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 31, 2019
Sure it is. We're talking about adding an element she did the day before, whereas I don't think Anna has done a quad since Russian Nationals. Liza can't beat Anna with a quad, or Sasha with two quads, or Alena with a 3A. Her goal is to produce a steady level with her three 3As and challenge everyone else to bring their near-peak form. Personally, I'm liking Liza's chances now that she's getting those spin and PCS scores close to the best Russians.
Anna landed her 4F (albeit with a step out) at the World team trophy (literally the last competition we saw her). (Also keep in mind she didn't need it either there or at World's. As soon as Sasha messed up her SP she also didn't need a quad at World's.) Also it's a completely different thing to introduce a new element to a program. But yes, she could but so could everyone else and they've all shown that.

The thing is that Anna with one quad, Sasha with two quads, and Kamila with 2 quads, isn't near-peak form. That's what they were doing injured/ill. That's their watered-down skates.

Finally, the thing is she needs them to mess up. And mess up consistently. (Not just one fall here and there - they can all afford one (or two) fall(s).) Anna can literally fall on one quad and beat her. (And she did.)
 
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Skatesocs

Final Flight
Joined
May 16, 2020
I just consider power rankings as what is at the present instead of what we hope for or what we think will happen.
Not necessarily. Otherwise, you'd have taken issue with Kihira being on the list at all, and Shcherbakova who hasn't landed quads this season would need to be much lower. :shrug: And you wouldn't bring up Rostelecom 2020, since it's been almost a year since then (not "in the moment"). And why would you put Kostornaia ahead of Liu when you've been complaining about Finlandia scoring, and Liu has landed more 3As this season, than Kostornaia has in this and the last? And you wouldn't put Higuchi on it, who has literally not shown the ability to do a clean LP this season (and landed a clean 3A in a competition that reads more like test skates, except without even needing to do her SP before she did the LP - and you said you don't want to take test skates into account) - sounds more like a "hope" to me. You're taking the past and momentum and politics into account all on your own, but weight it differently.

Anyway, my list is mine. I don't mean for it to be a "hope", and it can't possibly be what I think will happen, since I put 6 Russians on it. And I can update mine at whichever pace I want to. As stated, if she changes my mind during GPF, then she'll be up. @nussnacker suggested after 3 GPs, which maybe I won't do, but the rest of you can.
 
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drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
The thing is that Anna with one quad, Sasha with two quads, and Kamila with 2 quads, isn't near-peak form. That's what they were doing injured/ill. That's their watered-down skates.
Does Anna have a quad now? Anna, Alena, and Sasha are getting to the age when Alina started struggling with her jumps. Sasha still looks strong, but Alena and Anna don't seem to be at their peak and there's no guarantee they'll get back there.
 

chasingneverland

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 31, 2019
Does Anna have a quad now? Anna, Alena, and Sasha are getting to the age when Alina started struggling with her jumps. Sasha still looks strong, but Alena and Anna don't seem to be at their peak and there's no guarantee they'll get back there.
Anna was injured again before the season began (broken toe) but according to her coach has her quad back.

Also, Anna doesn't need her quad(s) to beat Liza. She's beaten her without it. (It's for Kamila and (?) Maiia that she needs it.)
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Also, Anna doesn't need her quad(s) to beat Liza.
Maybe. But I think you're staying stuck in the past. Whether or not Liza deserves PCS scores on par with Kamila and Alena, she is now getting them from international judges. Her 3A also looks to be better, as she's not turning out on the landing like she normally did last season. If Liza is clean with three 3As, getting those elevated scores, and with the backing of an influential coach who isn't coaching all of the other contenders, she's not going to lose someone with no 3A/quad when all of the other Eteri skaters attempt those elements. Unless the top Russian women are a complete mess this season, no one will make the short list of contenders without those difficult jumps.
 

Skatesocs

Final Flight
Joined
May 16, 2020
Whether or not Liza deserves PCS scores on par with Kamila and Alena, she is now getting them from international judges.
She got it all of once. Shcherbakova is now reigning WC, and we haven't even seen her compete internationally this season (she got 73 at WC 2021 with a fall). Kamila's first ever senior comp saw her get 72 PCS with a fall, and 35 in the SP with a fall. This is the problem - for the rest of the skaters, the past seems to matter more than Tuktamysheva's, and we must base Tuktamysheva's momentum on one datum point.
 
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drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
She got it all of once. Shcherbakova is now reigning WC, and we haven't even seen her compete internationally this season (she got 73 at WC 2021 with a fall). Kamila's first ever senior comp saw her get 72 PCS with a fall, and 35 in the SP with a fall. This is the problem - for the rest of the skaters, the past seems to matter more than Tuktamysheva's, and we must base Tuktamysheva's momentum on one datum point.
We've often seen skaters get rewarded for delivering consistently strong performances, so her scores could rise more with better technical content and solid skates. Liza has on two occasions posted scores higher than what won Worlds, and while scores can vary from event to event, to say she couldn't beat a quadless Anna is silly.
 

Dawn825

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 19, 2021
Everything can change as soon as next week, or over the GP, or the day before Nationals. So this is all just speculation, and my thoughts about rankings change several times a day. Maybe I'll try to commit to something right before SkAm :shrug:

But it seems to me the biggest thing holding back Liza is that the federation doesn't want her on the Olympic team. She has never been a favorite, at least not since 2015. And the story of the last several years has been entirely about Team Tutberidze, that this one camp has produced an assembly line of unbeatable jumpers who could take up 2 full Olympic podiums. Having four of these teen "prodigies" get beaten by an "old" skater from another coach makes the whole team look overrated and vulnerable - and that is NOT the look the fed is going for heading to the Olympics, or the next quad. In my opinion Liza has more that proven herself to be at least 4th in the ranking of Russian ladies, landing probably around 20 triple axels in the last year - she should certainly come in above Maiia, who's landed 3 quads, and Aliona, who's landed 0 triple axels recently.
I believe the federations dream team would be Kamila, Sasha and Anna, based on a combination of past achievements, future potential, current condition, and international reputation. But if one of them were to real fall apart or get injured in the next few months, I still don't think the fed would see Liza as first in line to take an spot Olympic spot, despite her vastly improved consistency and reputation. While Aliona is no longer in favor with them, she does currently have the right coach for the narrative. And I suspect they might even rather have a well-performing Maiia on the team, who has both the coach and maybe the quads. Quads, not triple axels, are a crucial part of the "unbeatable Russians" headline.

In short, I don't think politics will allow any skater that isn't both from TT and jumping quads on the Olympic team.
 
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