Not necessarily. Otherwise, you'd have taken issue with Kihira being on the list at all, and Shcherbakova who hasn't landed quads this season would need to be much lower. And you wouldn't bring up Rostelecom 2020, since it's been almost a year since then (not "in the moment"). And why would you put Kostornaia ahead of Liu when you've been complaining about Finlandia scoring, and Liu has landed more 3As this season, than Kostornaia has in this and the last? And you wouldn't put Higuchi on it, who has literally not shown the ability to do a clean LP this season (and landed a clean 3A in a competition that reads more like test skates, except without even needing to do her SP before she did the LP - and you said you don't want to take test skates into account) - sounds more like a "hope" to me. You're taking the past and momentum and politics into account all on your own, but weight it differently.
Anyway, my list is mine. I don't mean for it to be a "hope", and it can't possibly be what I think will happen, since I put 6 Russians on it. And I can update mine at whichever pace I want to. As stated, if she changes my mind during GPF, then she'll be up. @nussnacker suggested after 3 GPs, which maybe I won't do, but the rest of you can.
I’m cognizant that Kostornaia actually would have matched Liu’s score had she not had the REP issue and also the strength of her SP. And I think she’s returning to form better than Liu is. It’s not like I line up everyone’s seasons best total and call it my top 10. I also said I don’t pay a lot of heed to test skates but have stated that I do consider them somewhat (hence why I have Trusova 4th instead of lower).
I put Higuchi on the list because she still showed a solid 3A and 3-3 combo in Japan Open. But since it’s also one competition and Higuchi isn’t the most consistent I put her in 10th. I think she has momentum but isn’t worthy to be ahead of Kihira and Sakamoto quite yet.
Also yes Rostelecom was a while ago so I don’t give it much credence either. But it is within a year - some folks seem to be using the 2019-2020 season as more indicative of skaters’ level than more recent competitions. People are also cherry picking skaters’ higher technical consistency in 2019 and the higher PCS level in 2021.
People are saying Liza can only win if Trusova and Kostornaia don’t mess up. Agreed. But they’re not exactly NOT messing up! Liza doesn’t have the quads but she is wayyy more solid in her layout and consistency than the other senior Russians.