2021-22 Women's Skating Predictions and Rankings

[Joekaz]

I have. Matsuike has nice skating skills and lovely arms but I think Liu has better expression and projection. Matsuike has very tidy skating but I'm not excited by her yet. There's something generic about her, and she loses steam towards the end of her programs, which adversely affects her jumps. She has potential, but she's not better than Liu IMO.

You also don't have to patronize me. Just because I disagree with you doesn't mean I'm not watching the skating. I could just as easily retort that while you might be watching, you're never actually watching with your bias aside (which you've definitely made clear affects your assessment of these skaters). You might say the top 5 or 6 Japanese girls skate better than Liu, which is correct if the Japanese girls actually complete their tech content but that rarely happens. You admit that the Japanese have grossly underperformed in big competitions lately and yet you seem so assured that they deserve to be in the top 10 or ahead of Liu, who has underperformed but still consistently cleared 200s which not many Japanese skaters can boast this season. You might like the skating of those Japanese skaters more than Liu, which is fair, but that doesn't rank them ahead of her. For example, Miyahara is miles ahead of Liu artistically, but I wouldn't rank her higher given her technical struggles. Kihira is a better skater than Liu, but she's injured and having learned that she's barely jumping lutzes and flips, let alone 3A/quads, I would currently rank her behind Liu. Rankings are about results/placement/positions, not necessarily who the best figure skater on their best day is. Otherwise Kostornaia should be higher because of her potential, and skaters like Daleman might be in the top 10 if they were in their prime. You have to look at the current state of affairs.

And the current state of affairs is that Liu fired her coach despite getting very lenient scoring from the judges this season. Two Japanese have been the victim of very harsh scoring on the other hand, Higuchi and Kawabe. Higuchi's free the other day was grossly underscored and Im sure you'll agree far better than anything Liu is capable of. Of course scorong isn't only a product of nationality, but more of Fed support, which Liu has and those 2 don't. Btw, on her best day Daleman wouldn't be top 10 today. She was barely better most of the time than sloppy ass Osmond. Lol

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

And the current state of affairs is that Liu fired her coach despite getting very lenient scoring from the judges this season. Two Japanese have been the victim of very harsh scoring on the other hand, Higuchi and Kawabe. Higuchi's free the other day was grossly underscored and Im sure you'll agree far better than anything Liu is capable of. Of course scorong isn't only a product of nationality, but more of Fed support, which Liu has and those 2 don't. Btw, on her best day Daleman wouldn't be top 10 today. She was barely better most of the time than sloppy ass Osmond. Lol

Ohhhh I get it - it’s not just Americans you have an axe to grind against, it’s all North Americans. Cute. Explains a lot.

Must be a terrible burden for you knowing that “sloppy” Osmond has a World title and Olympic medals of every colour. And Daleman is an Olympic gold medalist too no matter what you say about her. Speaking of Higuchi - shout out to her for placing 2nd when Osmond soundly defeated her and Miyahara (JPN) to win her World gold!

 

[Joekaz]

Ohhhh I get it - it’s not just Americans you have an axe to grind against, it’s all North Americans. Cute. Explains a lot.

Must be a terrible burden for you knowing that “sloppy” Osmond has a World title and Olympic medals of every colour. And Daleman is an Olympic gold medalist too no matter what you say about her. Speaking of Higuchi - shout out to her for placing 2nd when Osmond soundly defeated her and Miyahara (JPN) to win her World gold!

Canadians never do get enough credit for being in on the corruption gravy train in Olympic years, you are right about that travesty. Just ask Mirai about Canadian Olympic shenanigans. It is amazing that Canada has produced so few good skaters lately, almost as bad as the pathetic American women post Michelle. Im American but I value good skating and root for individuals. Kwan was my favorite, but the Japanese have just been a higher level of skating since she left. I like Kostornaia too, but most of the Russians are great fast rotators, but not particularly good skaters. So you can rub your maple leaf while I enjoy many talented entertaining women skaters from Japan.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Canadians never do get enough credit for being in on the corruption gravy train in Olympic years, you are right about that travesty. Just ask Mirai about Canadian Olympic shenanigans. It is amazing that Canada has produced so few good skaters lately, almost as bad as the pathetic American women post Michelle. Im American but I value good skating and root for individuals. Kwan was my favorite, but the Japanese have just been a higher level of skating since she left. I like Kostornaia too, but most of the Russians are great fast rotators, but not particularly good skaters. So you can rub your maple leaf while I enjoy many talented entertaining women skaters from Japan.

Lol, I enjoy talented skaters from Japan too. As I said, I’m pretty unbiased when it comes to nationality. I mean you just roll differently and think Japanese skaters can do no wrong and North American skaters are pathetic.

Yeah and a bummer that North Americans are so bad and wouldn’t even come top 5 at Japanese Nationals and yet Chen beat all 3 Japanese at Worlds last year, Tennell beat Kihira/Miyahara in the FS, Schizas beat the Japanese #3, and Liu has higher scores than most of the Japanese women this season.

But of course that’s just my hot take from not having ever watched any figure skating ever in my life.

 

[Joekaz]

Lol, I enjoy talented skaters from Japan too. As I said, I’m pretty unbiased when it comes to nationality. I mean you just roll differently and think Japanese skaters can do no wrong and North American skaters are pathetic.

Yeah and a bummer that North Americans are so bad and wouldn’t even come top 5 at Japanese Nationals and yet Chen beat all 3 Japanese at Worlds last year, Tennell beat Kihira/Miyahara in the FS, Schizas beat the Japanese #3, and Liu has higher scores than most of the Japanese women this season.

But of course that’s just my hot take from not having ever watched any figure skating ever in my life.

At least you finally admit the obvious, now go back to reading scores.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Canadians never do get enough credit for being in on the corruption gravy train in Olympic years, you are right about that travesty. Just ask Mirai about Canadian Olympic shenanigans. It is amazing that Canada has produced so few good skaters lately, almost as bad as the pathetic American women post Michelle. Im American but I value good skating and root for individuals. Kwan was my favorite, but the Japanese have just been a higher level of skating since she left. I like Kostornaia too, but most of the Russians are great fast rotators, but not particularly good skaters. So you can rub your maple leaf while I enjoy many talented entertaining women skaters from Japan.

Lol, I enjoy talented skaters from Japan too. As I said, I’m pretty unbiased when it comes to nationality. I mean you just roll differently and think Japanese skaters can do no wrong and North American skaters are pathetic.

Yeah and a bummer that North Americans are so bad and wouldn’t even come top 5 at Japanese Nationals and yet Chen beat all 3 Japanese at Worlds last year, and Schizas beat the Japanese #3.

Canadians never do get enough credit for being in on the corruption gravy train in Olympic years, you are right about that travesty. Just ask Mirai about Canadian Olympic shenanigans. It is amazing that Canada has produced so few good skaters lately, almost as bad as the pathetic American women post Michelle. Im American but I value good skating and root for individuals. Kwan was my favorite, but the Japanese have just been a higher level of skating since she left. I like Kostornaia too, but most of the Russians are great fast rotators, but not particularly good skaters. So you can rub your maple leaf while I enjoy many talented entertaining women skaters from Japan.

Also side note: interesting how you criticize Liu for switching coaches in the Olympic season (and leveling up her coaching in terms of legitimacy and experience, at that) when you extol the virtues of Michelle Kwan who prior to the Olympics dropped her coach in favour of her dad, of all people. The irony, eh.

 

[alexocfp]

Canadians never do get enough credit for being in on the corruption gravy train in Olympic years, you are right about that travesty.

The way this was phrased made me laugh. Haha

How does one go about getting on the “corruption gravy train?” Because I wouldn’t mind a few of my favorite skaters climbing on it. Haha

And, I absolutely love Kaori (our very own living, breathing bundle of sunshine and chaser of rain clouds), but unfortunately, her and the rest of her countrywoman today don’t come through in the clutch in the big events. I wish that wasn’t the case, but sometimes the truth hurts.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

At least you finally admit the obvious, now go back to reading scores.

Lol, I think I’ve made it apparent that scores aren’t the only thing I’m able to read.

 

[Joekaz]

Lol, I think I’ve made it apparent that scores aren’t the only thing I’m able to read.

You do appear to be a good reader. Observer of skating, not so much.

 

[Joekaz]

The way this was phrased made me laugh. Haha

How does one go about getting on the “corruption gravy train?” Because I wouldn’t mind a few of my favorite skaters climbing on it. Haha

And, I absolutely love Kaori (our very own living, breathing bundle of sunshine and chaser of rain clouds), but unfortunately, her and the rest of her countrywoman today don’t come through in the clutch in the big events. I wish that wasn’t the case, but sometimes the truth hurts.

I agree with you that the Japanese women haven't come through and skated to their potential. Higuchi's skyfall was probably the last time. But their Fed evidently does not have good tasting gravy, because they also don't get very favorable judging. For instance, Im sure you will agree that Chen had no business being in front of Sakamoto last year after her rampant display of URs. But as I have said before, the Russians are clearly the toughest competitors when it counts,something the Japanese need to learn. The Americans simply lack the talent right now. The Koreans are stronger btw.

 

[Lzbee]

You do appear to be a good reader. Observer of skating, not so much.

I don't understand what you hope to achieve with your tirades? You're not going to change anyone's mind by telling them they're stupid for not agreeing with you.

(Also, the ranking is literally about who you think will get the medals. ie. Who will score better. Why don't you start a thread on ranking who is the best skater instead?)

 

[Joekaz]

I don't understand what you hope to achieve with your tirades? You're not going to change anyone's mind by telling them they're stupid for not agreeing with you.

(Also, the ranking is literally about who you think will get the medals. ie. Who will score better. Why don't you start a thread on ranking who is the best skater instead?)

I never said he was stupid. My whole point is that this is a thoroughly corrupt sport. Just blindly going by bogus scores instead of how they actually skate is wrong to me. So when I say that, your response is to start spouting statistics and ignoring obvious cases of judging bias, I respond. Then I get personally attacked for hating Americans because I give my opinion of their abilities. I thought his assessment of Matsuike vs Liu was actually pretty good, that Rino skates better, but Liu projects better. But he loses me when he starts spouting scores to say Liu is far ahead when those scores are clearly based on missed URs and inflated PCS. That being said, I like Liu and am impressed how much she improved from last year. She has a bright future I think. But she is very young and being pushed too fast because of the Olympics. I also agree the Japanese have grossly underperformed at big events the last few years,although again it was obvious Chen should not have been ahead of Sakamoto last year. I hope to get people to drop their national bias and don't take the scores too seriously, even within your own country, because fed bias is a bigger factor than nationality. You are correct I think however, that I should quit responding and let it go. So that's what I will do. Thank you.

 

[readernick]

The Americans simply lack the talent right now. The Koreans are far stronger btw.

Not going to get into the rest of this pointless battle, but I don't think this comment is true. In general, Korean skaters have not been beating the Americans. In fact, Korea and America each have one decent skater Liu/ Young capable of scoring well and a bunch of skaters with nice qualities but terrible inconsistency who have been trying their hardest to race for the bottom of the list in the choice for Olympic spots. Lots of talent in Korea but the skaters aren't showing to their full potential in competition at the junior or senior level.

I do think both Korea and America have more talent in juniors. However, the Korean juniors ( exception Kim Chaeyeon) are very inconsistent and thus only got two medals compared to the 6 the Americans won.

 

[Joekaz]

Not going to get into the rest of this pointless battle, but I don't think this comment is true. In general, Korean skaters have not been beating the Americans. In fact, Korea and America each have one decent skater Liu/ Young capable of scoring well and a bunch of skaters with nice qualities but terrible inconsistency who have been trying their hardest to race for the bottom of the list in the choice for Olympic spots. Lots of talent in Korea but the skaters aren't showing to their full potential in competition at the junior or senior level.

I do think both Korea and America have more talent in juniors. However, the Korean juniors ( exception Kim Cheyeon) are very inconsistent and thus only got one medal compared to the 6 the Americans won.

I shouldn't have said far. I do think the Korean seniors are better this year, but as you say they haven't been showing it. I wish I had your self restraint. Lol

 

[Lzbee]

I hope to get people to drop their national bias and don't take the scores too seriously, even within your own country, because fed bias is a bigger factor than nationality.

I think you're preaching to the choir. Most people here already know that, considering the amount of debating about scores.

It seems to me that you're upset that people aren't following/advocating for the Japanese ladies more. I can understand that but there are aspects of other skaters' skating that I personally enjoy watching/talking about more and I'm sure that's the case for others too. It's really not necessarily to do with nationality.

If you want to promote not taking the scores seriously, I would join you in that as it definitely leads to a happier viewing experience. But people are more likely to follow you if approach it from a positive angle rather than tearing other skaters down.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I agree with you that the Japanese women haven't come through and skated to their potential. Higuchi's skyfall was probably the last time. But their Fed evidently does not have good tasting gravy, because they also don't get very favorable judging. For instance, Im sure you will agree that Chen had no business being in front of Sakamoto last year after her rampant display of URs. But as I have said before, the Russians are clearly the toughest competitors when it counts,something the Japanese need to learn. The Americans simply lack the talent right now. The Koreans are stronger btw.

While I agree that Chen was gifted 4th, and should have been behind Hendrickx/Sakamoto, Kaori didn't exactly do herself favours either. She should have done a 3L in the SP instead of her flutz, giving up 2 points there. She also flubbed her final FS spin which if it were a level 4 would have given her 4th place. At any rate it doesn't really matter because if Chen coming in 4th at Worlds doesn't make her a great skater to you, so it's not like Sakamoto coming 4th would have made her a great skater either, right?

Also, this "Japanese are criminally underscored" narrative is getting pretty yawn-worthy. The Japanese women were still rather gifted with PCS at Worlds. Sakamoto still got 68 PCS, which outside of Japan is about as good as she should have been getting last season - sorry she's not a 70 PCS clean skater yet (although I don't think a clean Liu/Trusova/Valieva/Tuktamysheva are either), but I get the Japanese #1 PCS boost. Also, technically speaking, Kaori was gifted with the non-flutz calls - you can especially see it at 0.25x speed at this angle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9N1FFqQm-s#t=4m53 or even this angle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrfrWuYsyQY#t=1m18s - very clearly an inside edge on takeoff, and yet she went from an e to a ! (although that was home ice so maybe internationally she'll actually get called on it).

At 2021 Worlds, Kihira somehow got 69 PCS with several errors including a fall on her last jumping pass (half her jumping passes didn't get +GOE). Miyahara is always lovely to watch, and perpetually one of my fave skaters, but even I have to acknowledge that she had two falls, two pops, several </<<, and was still awarded 63 PCS (including 8.5s... really?!). In the SP she had two major errors (fall and singling a combo) and still garnered almost 34 PCS. So I'm not seeing where this "they don't get favourable judging" narrative is coming from if we look at Worlds.

Yes, the Russians and Americans are often overscored (I certainly don't think any of them clean are good enough skaters/programs to be pulling mid-70s, except maybe 2019-2020 season Kostornaia whose programs just aren't doing it for me this year. And I also think Russian skaters are definitely more overscored relative to Japanese skaters (due to their considerable technical superiority) — but it's not like the Japanese aren't ever being thrown carrots either. They're just, as you said, underperforming technically speaking and the system forces poor technical performers to not get huge scores even if the judges try to save them on PCS. I also find that each Japanese skater has something that the other Japanese skaters needs - Sakamoto needs Matsuike's non-stiff arms and Miyahara's finesse, Mihara and Matsuike needs Sakamoto's projection and speed, Miyahara needs Sakamoto's jumping ability, Higuchi needs more consistency and avoiding pops, and Rika needs to be healthy. Nobody's "total packaging" it at the moment, the closest being Sakamoto.

edit: Also not that it needs explaining, but I went over Liu and Matsuike's programs again and I can't imagine how you could even put them on par. Liu skates with much more speed and has far more transitions in/out of her jumps and within her program. Her spins are also faster with better positions and centering. The judges were even pretty correct with her scoring I thought given that she skated "clean" with no visible errors (aside from the URs which she was marked down for, so you can't even argue they held her up there).

 

[[email protected]]

My ranking without taking into account 3 only quota:

1. Valieva
2. Scherbakova
3. Trusova (if she is back)
4. Tuktamysheva
5. Kostornaya
6. Khromykh
7. Sakamoto
8. Hendrixx
9. Liu
10. You

I did it with the assumption that Maia's fiasco in Warsaw was a one time event and she will fight back with clean programs including 2 quads.

 

[skaket023]

My ranking without taking into account 3 only quota:

1. Valieva
2. Scherbakova
3. Trusova (if she is back)
4. Tuktamysheva
5. Kostornaya
6. Khromykh
7. Sakamoto
8. Hendrixx
9. Liu
10. You

I did it with the assumption that Maia's fiasco in Warsaw was a one time event and she will fight back with clean programs including 2 quads.

I like that you put Kostornaya ahead of Khromykh as her skating skills are better than most on that list.

If she had her 3A's (and more footwork), the non-Russian international judges would bump her up that list! They seem to like her more than the Russian judges.

 

[Joekaz]

While I agree that Chen was gifted 4th, and should have been behind Hendrickx/Sakamoto, Kaori didn't exactly do herself favours either. She should have done a 3L in the SP instead of her flutz, giving up 2 points there. She also flubbed her final FS spin which if it were a level 4 would have given her 4th place. At any rate it doesn't really matter because if Chen coming in 4th at Worlds doesn't make her a great skater to you, so it's not like Sakamoto coming 4th would have made her a great skater either, right?

Also, this "Japanese are criminally underscored" narrative is getting pretty yawn-worthy. The Japanese women were still rather gifted with PCS at Worlds. Sakamoto still got 68 PCS, which outside of Japan is about as good as she should have been getting last season - sorry she's not a 70 PCS clean skater yet (although I don't think a clean Liu/Trusova/Valieva/Tuktamysheva are either), but I get the Japanese #1 PCS boost. Also, technically speaking, Kaori was gifted with the non-flutz calls - you can especially see it at 0.25x speed at this angle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9N1FFqQm-s#t=4m53 or even this angle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrfrWuYsyQY#t=1m18s - very clearly an inside edge on takeoff, and yet she went from an e to a ! (although that was home ice so maybe internationally she'll actually get called on it).

At 2021 Worlds, Kihira somehow got 69 PCS with several errors including a fall on her last jumping pass (half her jumping passes didn't get +GOE). Miyahara is always lovely to watch, and perpetually one of my fave skaters, but even I have to acknowledge that she had two falls, two pops, several </<<, and was still awarded 63 PCS (including 8.5s... really?!). In the SP she had two major errors (fall and singling a combo) and still garnered almost 34 PCS. So I'm not seeing where this "they don't get favourable judging" narrative is coming from if we look at Worlds.

Yes, the Russians and Americans are often overscored (I certainly don't think any of them clean are good enough skaters/programs to be pulling mid-70s, except maybe 2019-2020 season Kostornaia whose programs just aren't doing it for me this year. And I also think Russian skaters are definitely more overscored relative to Japanese skaters (due to their considerable technical superiority) — but it's not like the Japanese aren't ever being thrown carrots either. They're just, as you said, underperforming technically speaking and the system forces poor technical performers to not get huge scores even if the judges try to save them on PCS. I also find that each Japanese skater has something that the other Japanese skaters needs - Sakamoto needs Matsuike's non-stiff arms and Miyahara's finesse, Mihara and Matsuike needs Sakamoto's projection and speed, Miyahara needs Sakamoto's jumping ability, Higuchi needs more consistency and avoiding pops, and Rika needs to be healthy. Nobody's "total packaging" it at the moment, the closest being Sakamoto.

edit: Also not that it needs explaining, but I went over Liu and Matsuike's programs again and I can't imagine how you could even put them on par. Liu skates with much more speed and has far more transitions in/out of her jumps and within her program. Her spins are also faster with better positions and centering. The judges were even pretty correct with her scoring I thought given that she skated "clean" with no visible errors (aside from the URs which she was marked down for, so you can't even argue they held her up there).

I basically agree with you here. When I said the Japanese were underscored, I meant in comparison with their main competition, not necessarily the raw scores. Your breakdown of the Japanese women is quite good. Matsuike injured her ankle leading into her first GP and has been far below what she was showing before the injury. So, at least there is a reason for her poor performance. Her basic flow across the ice and deep edges still outclass Liu in that respect, despite her injury. Liu on the other hand, has not been very impressive despite very generous scoring(she got away with many URs and or Qs, although a few were called, and very inflated PCS) with no excuses at all. Liu is the best American, however, but I think they are pushing her too much because of the Olympics. She is young and has no shot at an Olympic podium, so she should concentrate on improving and aim for the next Olympics.