2023-24 Russian Women's Figure Skating

[Amei]

I don't know about you guys but I feel very underwhelmed about our ladies this year.

Valieva's jumps look even better this year, but she has gotten slow, her skating skills really degraded, she now looks like Tuktik did in the past, no flow in step sequence and moves look too elaborated. Of course as long as she hits her jumps judges keep giving her those ridiculous scores.
I like the short program but the long one is a huge miss.

Agree I think the FS is a miss based on what was put out this weekend however she had eye surgery a few weeks ago which could have been impacted her this weekend. I can't remember where I heard it, but I once heard if unprepared you can fake it through a SP, but you can't fake it through a FS if you are unprepared it will show

 

[icewhite]

I very much doubt they will return for 2024 worlds and the top skaters may already have changed a lot when they do. But if I had to decide now I'd definitely send Petrosyan. Although my personal favourite is Muravieva.
(By the way as much as I love Kaori, I don't think she will be world champion again this time, I think it will be someone with a 3A.)

At this point, to me, Muravieva and Khromykh look most like they might exceed a certain time limit and become more like Liza. Although all 3 are very different. Muravieva just has all the basics and I think it kind of speaks volumes Maiia is still there, despite her height, despite being out for a while, not replaced by someone younger. I think she has a rather mature style now. We will see how it all develops now with the new age limit and such, but sometimes the skaters "survive" that you underestimated when the ones hyped the most have already disappeared.

I have no idea how to estimate Valieva. It's very impressive what she's still able to do when she clearly does not have a little girl's figure anymore. She's clearly not the skater anymore she was, though, but I'm not sure if that means she cannot return to it, and then there's the thing with the ban hanging over her head and her being the people's favourite... so many aspects.

 

[yume]

It also depends big time on the timeline of when Russians will be officially let back during the season and what they will be allowed to compete in. Remember Mura and Adeliya dont have senior minimums to compete in worlds nor Europeans rn they need to gain them by competing in challengers or in other Senior B comps. If they allow them back too late for the girls to get them or they only allow them to compete at worlds but nothing else this season then Liza might be the only option. I would send Liza, if she decides to continue to compete this season either way as the judges know her and she was receiving pretty good scores prior to the ban. She doesn't need gold at worlds silver will do and with her 3A and decent 2 skates she should do that rather easily.

I thought worlds minimums were valid only two seasons? Won't Liza have to earn the minimums too if Russians are allowed back?

 

[yume]

If it was just me I'd send Kseniia, she's my absolute favourite and she has everything needed to hold her own in international competitions. Though she may not challenge Kaori for the title, if only because she doesn't have the momentum Kaori has after two Worlds title, so if I have to pick from the skaters with stronger jumps I'll send Mura, sure she's a bit nervy at times but she just skates beautifully.

But if it ever does happen that Russia is allowed to compete at Worlds it's practically a given that they will pick Adeliia, she's the obvious choice.

Rusfed looking at you for daring to mention another skater than one from Tutberidze, Mishin or Plushenko.

 

[Mariiiiskate]

I thought worlds minimums were valid only two seasons? Won't Liza have to earn the minimums too if Russians are allowed back?

Oh i forgot that the current season count towards this 2 season rule you are right, they all would need to earn it.

 

[Mathematician]

The obvious candidates are Petrosyan, Mura and Tuktik.

Obvious to who? Tuktik over Valieva? You sure? Tuktik herself says she doesnt even feel motivated to skate anymore and it shows. I would easily send even Zinina or Zhilina over her.

 

[snowflake]

Obvious to who? Tuktik over Valieva? You sure? Tuktik herself says she doesnt even feel motivated to skate anymore and it shows. I would easily send even Zinina or Zhilina over her.

But if she had the chance to compete internationally again I bet she would have the motivation.

 

[Mathematician]

But if she had the chance to compete internationally again I bet she would have the motivation.

Lol, shes been skating for like 15 years. She is so far past that. If she doesnt have the artistic drive within her anymore the international stage isnt going to get that out of her. Even if it gave her competitive motivation (which I doubt it would), if her artistic inspiration is gone it doesnt matter - she wont skate well. Let her retire, shes done great things but theres no need to act like shes still at the top when she doesnt even believe that herself.

 

[snowflake]

Lol, shes been skating for like 15 years. She is so far past that. If she doesnt have the artistic drive within her anymore the international stage isnt going to get that out of her. Even if it gave her competitive motivation (which I doubt it would), if her artistic inspiration is gone it doesnt matter - she wont skate well. Let her retire, shes done great things but theres no need to act like shes still at the top when she doesnt even believe that herself.

Okay I don't know what motivates her and you don't either. She's said she misses international skating.

 

[Remilia]

And a question, is Russia was allowed to compete at the World's, who would you sent if you were them?
They have one spot, if they would manage to win, they would have 3 next year.

Well, the odds of them being allowed back for worlds is slim, but I would love for it to happen. If it does, the obvious choice would be Adeliia or Muravieva (not including Kami, because her status is too much of a question mark right now). They wouldn't get the usual big pcs due to not having competed internationally as seniors before, but I think out of the two, Muravieva would definitely receive higher pcs. But even with watered down content, either of the two would easily be able to place in the top 3.

Personally, I'm more interested in who would get sent to junior worlds, though the obvious answer would be Akatieva or Veronika (or Alina, assuming she still has her quads).

 

[Rudel-chw]

Tuktik herself says she doesnt even feel motivated to skate anymore

That's new to me ... where did she said that?

 

[Paulipau]

That's new to me ... where did she said that?

She said that it is hard for her to find a motivation.

 

[lariko]

And a question, is Russia was allowed to compete at the World's, who would you sent if you were them?

I think it would have been decided between Petrosyan and Muravieva, if this was possible. While Petrosyan on paper has better TES, her jumps are visually small, losing out to the current gold standard of Shimada's jumps, so they will be far easier to lowball on GOE and q, <. Her artistry also comes and goes. Muravieva, when she hits them, shows large, beautiful 3A.

The judging internationally was extremely ah... variable on GOE, with huge scrutiny for q, e and <. 3 PCS components also makes it far easier to score by pre-ranking, rather than randomly. So... yeah, if Russians are ever international, their choice will likely be the winner of nationals if they go straight into a big competition, or someone who scores fairly well in smaller internarionals with a hostile technical panel.

 

[Skating91]

I don't know about you guys but I feel very underwhelmed about our ladies this year.

Valieva's jumps look even better this year, but she has gotten slow, her skating skills really degraded, she now looks like Tuktik did in the past, no flow in step sequence and moves look too elaborated. Of course as long as she hits her jumps judges keep giving her those ridiculous scores.
I like the short program but the long one is a huge miss.

Adelia was great but same problem as all those previous seasons, she would get pity points for those REP quads, it makes her vulnerable.

Mura is a total package when it comes to PCS but her programs/packaging are getting repetitive, she can do better than this I think.
She always had some consistency flukes, nothing to do but to hope for the best.

Ksenia's programs are perfect, she is a beautiful artistic skater. I don't think she can win anything at all but she is a lovely addition to every competition.

Maiia I never understood the attention she is given, I would much rather see Frolova for example. Same inconsistent triples but Anna is more interesting artistically.

Tuktik's short program is great for her, she even seems fast over ice in it. And I'm glad that she was able to keep the quality of spins.

Akatieva, the short is very pompous, I hate it. It doesn't show her lovely qualities at all.

Nika, Anastasia - both very young skaters, and both very promising. They just need the competition experience for now.

And a question, is Russia was allowed to compete at the World's, who would you sent if you were them?
They have one spot, if they would manage to win, they would have 3 next year.

Look, I'm a biased Valieva fan but the short program went far better than I could have hoped and that's how I felt before knowing about the procedure on her eyes. Rewatching several times, I think the SP is something special.

That SP is a score of high 70's every day, maybe get dinged hitting the boards at the end but that won't happen again. When she skates again mid-November it will be flawless and at least 80 with a double axel.

She did not fall or step out on any jumps (just popped a double axel making it a single axel but it's test skates), the euler looked better than before, completed all 3-3 combos easily.

There's been a relative slowness since Russian Nationals last year (comparing to 2021-22 Valieva the best of all time) that wasn't there when she skated in Kazan early November, I think she just has to adjust to her new proportions and some components she may not be able to perform again.

Plus maybe Gleik should not give her such complicated programs. There was too much going on in the FS. I don't know what to think of the FS. I think it's been made with a high energy performance in mind but I don't think anyone in the world could carry it out let alone Kamila. He's made this program for a 15 year old Kamila.

But compare to the world champion's performances on the weekend, Kamila's jumps are better, spins are better, content much, much more complicated, Kamila in better physical condition. So if people are going to criticise Kamila in the midst of a difficult puberty then they have to apply the same standards to all skaters. Akatieva and Petrosian didn't have content nearly as complicated and busy as Kamila in the FS. It's clear she hasn't spent as much time performing the free skate as the short program, the eye procedure came at the worst time of the season, I'll reserve judgement until mid-November. It's going to be an epic free skate if she can pull it off.

As for world's, it will be between Adelia and Kamila. Adelia will have higher technical content, so she will have to be very inconsistent for Kamila to be chosen over her. Although, Kamila would be almost certain of winning gold and draw the eyes of the world to the tournament.

 

[Skating91]

I think it is related to her health problems. She is not in shape.

The skills have degraded since after the Kazan stage last November. She couldn't keep up with the Truman program she had to speed it up and cut corners in the second half at nationals and the GP final. Maybe there was a tipping point with weight, plus she did have what seemed to be a right knee injury late last season. There is no taping on her knee now I'm sure it's fine, and I thought she looked in great physical shape on the weekend.

Then in the spring shows performing In Memoriam was not as agile as the previous season, the Bolero program she performed in Moscow twice did not work out as planned.

She's probably 52kg now, she was 45kg at the Olympics. It's like trying to perform the same moves as before but with a relatively heavy backpack on you. Shcherbakova I think said was 42 or 43kg at the Olympics and that's nearly 18 years old. So Kamila is doing incredibly well. She is without a doubt the best skater on Earth 17 years or older.

 

[Skating91]

I think it would have been decided between Petrosyan and Muravieva, if this was possible. While Petrosyan on paper has better TES, her jumps are visually small, losing out to the current gold standard of Shimada's jumps, so they will be far easier to lowball on GOE and q, <. Her artistry also comes and goes. Muravieva, when she hits them, shows large, beautiful 3A.

Has Shimada ever landed a clean quad in competition though? It seems to be getting worse for her she wasn't close to landing her quad in the recent JGP. But her combinations and triple axel is quite stable (they usually are for Adelia as well along with the quad flip). Adelia has multiple quads she could land fully rotated last season.

The judging internationally was extremely ah... variable on GOE, with huge scrutiny for q, e and <. 3 PCS components also makes it far easier to score by pre-ranking, rather than randomly. So... yeah, if Russians are ever international, their choice will likely be the winner of nationals if they go straight into a big competition, or someone who scores fairly well in smaller internarionals with a hostile technical panel.

I think Adelia will get dinged like Grassl did last season (while Shoma with his heavily prerotated and blade assisted quad flip with receive 4's and 5's for GOE). I'm not a judge, so maybe not picking up on the subtleties of Shoma's blade assisted quad flip.

 

[lariko]

Has Shimada ever landed a clean quad in competition though? It seems to be getting worse for her she wasn't close to landing her quad in the recent JGP. But her combinations and triple axel is quite stable (they usually are for Adelia as well along with the quad flip). Adelia has multiple quads she could land fully rotated last season.

I am commenting on GoE, q, e, < potential on the style of jumping. Petrosyan rotates fast, but her jumps are not visually impressive, so I would expect her being dinged quite a lot. In the JGP so far, high PCSs and GoEs outstripped higher tech, and that includes smaller or slower jumps. Winning on TES is that much harder now, and PCS demand stuff that is not strong suit in Russian schools. I am sure RusFed will factor it. Unfortunately, all of it is a moot point.

 

[Remilia]

Has Shimada ever landed a clean quad in competition though? It seems to be getting worse for her she wasn't close to landing her quad in the recent JGP. But her combinations and triple axel is quite stable (they usually are for Adelia as well along with the quad flip). Adelia has multiple quads she could land fully rotated last season.

She has, but seems to be having some difficulty with it this season. However, Shimada is a junior, and Adeliia would be competing as a senior, so I'm not sure why the two are being compared

 

[Skating91]

I am commenting on GoE, q, e, < potential on the style of jumping. Petrosyan rotates fast, but her jumps are not visually impressive, so I would expect her being dinged quite a lot. In the JGP so far, high PCSs and GoEs outstripped higher tech, and that includes smaller or slower jumps. Winning on TES is that much harder now, and PCS demand stuff that is not strong suit in Russian schools. I am sure RusFed will factor it. Unfortunately, all of it is a moot point.

She generally lands her quads clean and rarely falls. Even with 0 GOE she's going to be a powerful scorer landing 3/3 quad attempts in the free program like in the GP Final. 3A is fairly stable as well. No-one else in world seniors or juniors has three quad attempts in a program.

Last season Petrosian:

		GOE
Russian GP Final	4F	Mostly 3
	4T+2A+SЕQ	Mostly 3
	4T	Mostly -2
Russia Champs	4Lo<< F
(coming off injury)	4T+2A+SЕQ	Mostly 3
	4T	Mostly 3
GP Stage 2	4T	Mostly -3
	4Lo F
	4T+2A+SЕQ	Mostly 3
Successfully jumped 5/9
Fell 2/9

Also add the Channel 1 Cup but couldn't find scoresheets. Landed 3A in each program then landed 4T+2A in the free, popped a 4T was 2T.

Compared to the gold standard jumper last season and the first GP of this one:

JGP Japan	4T<F
Triglav Trophy	No quad attempted
Junior World's	4Tq
Japan Champs	4T<F
Junior GP Final	4Tq
Junior Nationals	4T<F
JGP Poland I	4Tq
JGP Czechia	4T<F
Succesfully jumped 0/7
Fell 4/7

 

[lariko]

What I am trying to say is that her GoE and clean executions might not be the same internationally as they are in Russia. So, all those positive grades would deflate, and once underrotaions accumulate, with low PCS, her scoring might be far lower than it appears. As an example, Kim with a 3A lost to Nakai who popped hers into a single. Also, take a look at the junior women this season with 3-2 combos scoring significantly higher than those who land 3-3s, because 3-3s are called. Same thing happens currently in men's singles, and even more pronounced, because PCSs are prorated even higher.

The comparison is not between specific skaters per se, it's about the realities of the scoring and 3 components PCS. It is far, far easier to eyeball how the legit difference in 3 marks can average out, versus 5, so it is easier to rank the skaters however you want. Spins also had a wider hi-lo spread this season internationally.

About the only thing Russian internal judging was stricter with so far (last season) is Step Sequences. I dunno why, but it was pretty visible.

And small, low jumps are easy to lowball, plus, SS is looking at edges, deep knees and whatever else hard to see things the Japanese skaters do, versus the fast coverage the Russians do.

But, again, the proof is in the pudding, and we don't have the pudding, and by the looks of it, Russians might as well develop their own FS leagues anyway, because there is no indication whatsoever that they will ever compete internationally again.

The day the selection of a woman to compete internationally and how she is scored is the biggest problem for RusFed, will be a good day. But my prediction is still the same. National champions as first choice if they don't have Challengers/GPs spots to see how scoring will pan out and higher international scores if they have enough data to see how each skater holds up to the scrutiny of the unfriendly panels. It's just logical.