2024-25 Russian Grand Prix - Stage 3 - Krasnoyarsk
- Thread starter AlexBreeze
- Start date
- Joined
- Aug 8, 2023
57PCS for Chaplygina doesnt make sense to me at all. Scores in general were harsh this event but this score was very low comparatively anyways. Compared to Ovchinnikova for example who we will analyze in a second. It made me curious to investigate further.
It turns out one judge didnt even give her a single 7.
6.75, 6,50, 6.75
WOW!
That amounts to 6.973 points less (a whole jump's worth, with GOE!) than the combined average of all other judges.
No, this is not just a strict judge. The same judge even gave Gorbacheva the highest scores in every category out of all judges.
He did not demonstrate such statistically significant negative deviance with skaters other than Chaplygina.
He also gave Ovchinnikova all 7.50s. That means he gave her over 6.5 extra points over Chaplygina. Ovchinnikova has good SS - good glide and speed - but she also popped 3 of her jumps out of that fast glide so...
If you grant the entire SS gap, which we shouldnt (3 judges scored Ovchinnikova lower in SS!! with 1 equal, and 2 higher!!) that still means she got 4.5 extra points for a Carmen program (an FCCoSp4 worth plus GOE). No other judge demonstrated such a scoring difference between the two athletes.
Lets check the SP. Same judge gave Chaplygina all 6.50s. Which is 3 points less than the average of all other judges (remember its SP, so 3 is a lot). He again gave Gorbacheva the highest of any judge in every category. Interesting.
He cant claim a program just happened to be against his artistic taste. Chaplygina had two totally different programs and he demonstrated statistically significant deviance both times, meanwhile deviating with Gorbacheva in the opposite direction also for two totally different skates. This means you also cant vindicate him by showing he might've scored another skater lower than other judges, first of all because of the statistical magnitude of the deviation, but also because of this correlation of statistically magnitudinous deviation on a single skater across both programs.
I find that this is statistical evidence of unfair judging towards Chaplygina. These deviances could easily be the difference in placement which could be the difference in finals qualification, like we saw last year with multiple skaters. Thankfully, Chaplygina should be at finals anyways.
This judge needs to be suspended by finals so Chaplygina can have a fair chance at her best possible score.
I've caught up with the women's to stage 3 and everyone else to stage 2.
The Chaplygina PCS marks in the SP and FS were a disgrace two great well executed programs, and Agaeva was faultless in the FS low balled her with 61. She would be 5 points higher under international judging and from the USA or Canada. These judges from Russia are so harsh.
I can't believe Akatieva made it to bronze. Akatieva if she can put it together is still dangerous. Definitely will be best of the rest of Petrosian with little trouble with just a little more stability in her jumps. Gorbacheva missed out on her best opportunity yet messing up the combo in her SP I couldn't believe when she did it, maybe cost her gold. It would have been close. Frolova again with that consistency. You cannot fault her she doesn't make errors on her jumps ever. I was sad for Muraviova, but she seemed to be not 100%, maybe some growth changes, Plushenko is probably not the best environment to train in, still she isn't far off.
- Joined
- Aug 8, 2023
Agaeva's PCS was lowballed in the SP definitely.
FS was more fair compared with other girls. She deserves 8s if Akateva barely got 9s. Some judges gave her 7.25s though which is too low. She could've got more SS and presentation for a couple extra points. But the composition score justifiably suffers considering the Coco part. I think they kinda lowballed her on GOE too though. But this whole stage was extremely strict.
To be fair if Muravieva didnt melt down Akateva wouldn't've made bronze. I'm still very happy for her though. I thought anything other than gold would have her in tears but she said bronze is an acceptable result for her first tournament. She seemed to be having grand fun at the award ceremony too. Akateva was talking very confident about her 4T even after the event and she only just started training it. Looking at her technique I'm confident she will have it consistent, which is extremely impressive; she will be the 2nd grown up girl with a competitive quad after Valieva. If she restores a 3A by finals she could beat Petrosian but I think the latter is the favourite no matter what. However Akateva's winning condition could be jump GOE especially on the ultra-c cause she jumps way bigger and softer than Adeliia. Adeliia has the rest though.
She certainly would have taken gold. She lost a whole jump and -5 GOE. Plus some PCS. She only got 63 in the SP she normally gets 73-76, her worst last season was 72 and she looks way better this season in every way. She was only 8 points behind Frolova in the end. She says her 4S is 80%-90% consistent in training though and she plans to jump 2 of them by finals. I see her next to Sadkova now as a bronze dark horse.
Definitely not growth, she looks the exact same and shes already 18. She says she is sick and I think she was injured a few weeks ago as well. She should be in way better form soon and she even says she might try to jump a 4S by the end of the season (she might say that every season though I cant remember).
- Joined
- Aug 8, 2023
Fair enough but when shes sick and can barely breath post-skate we can suspend the search for other answers for now
It was a bad cough and was gasping for breath at the end of the free skate.
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2019
I know, but in the interst of pointing out that while some growth changes can be easily visible, others can be missed even by the team and can be impactful/dangerous in extreme sport like fs
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