- Joined
- Dec 7, 2022
Thank you for the previews, @icewhite! I have a couple of differing opinions and thoughts though
For me, I think Beccari/Guarise's recent rough outing at Challenge Cup has made me a little wary of their chances to medal. They scored just a 175 at that event. Conti/Macii looked stronger there, although they are still not quite back to the same magic that they had last year. I worry about possible twist errors (which they had at Challenge Cup) and other tidiness issues, but I think they have a very good shot at the podium if they can skate cleanly because they have both the quality and the BV needed. Interestingly, they went back to a prior SP, which hopefully will be the reset they need to put out their strongest performances of the season. I still think Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps have the best shot at winning, and the only thing stopping them is themselves. They have all of the pieces and can put out clean skates, but they just can't overthink it and let the pressure get to them. They have two of the strongest programs of this field and their visible improvements with the speed and skating skills compared to last season have put them ahead of everyone else. I also wouldn't count out Miura/Kihara. Apparently at 4CC, they had just done a few FS runthroughs before competing there, which is insane. Seeing as how Ryuichi seems to have largely recovered and Riku used that break to work on her own strength and skating, they can absolutely end up on that podium if they are able to train uninterrupted by injury. Hopefully Hase/Volodin will be able to use their Euros experiences and their training time since Euros to deliver clean skates at Worlds. I think their programs, especially the free, will hinder them from taking the gold, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them on the podium as well.
For ice dance, I think Gilles/Poirier are going to win. Never underestimate the power of a home crowd, especially in ice dance. Their programs are really fantastic, and their SB at Skate Canada is just 2 points off of Chock/Bates. I think the illness that Chock/Bates had (which hopefully ended up being minor and they have recovered from) might provide that slight edge to Gilles/Poirier that when coupled with a home crowd will push them to the gold. They, like Deanna and Max, just need to not get in their heads and skate cleanly and with passion and joy.
For the men, I'm curious as to how Ilia's lack of training time will affect him. I believe he's spent around a month or so in Europe touring with Art on Ice and doing some additional shows afterwards. While he's been showing some lovely 4As and other quads during the shows, having to spend so much of your time on the road away from your coaches and a regular place to train has to seriously affect his preparation for Worlds. He was doing a show in Italy just last week, and likely next week skaters will be starting to taper their practices and focus on being well-rested for Worlds. It seems as though he's been skating to maintain rather than having that block after US Nats to improve his skating and consistency. It's a vital training window; it's why we see skaters be so good at Worlds (well, that and peaking). Now, of all of the top men competing, he is the one with the most consistent and stable jumps, but I think lacking those extra program runthroughs will affect his PCS scores and perhaps his consistency a bit. That's not to mention the boot issues he was having at US Nats, during which he had to switch back to his old boots. Those can't last him all the way to Worlds, but he should have had enough time to break in those new boots and feel comfortable in them. Unfortunately, that break-in period will again ever so slightly hinder his training, although it's better to do it and get it over with than be skating on dead or brand-new boots at Worlds. Of course, his BV does make two clean skates from him near-impossible to beat, but considering his last skate at US Nats was a little shakier and his adverse training conditions heading in, I don't think he has quite the advantage some people think. For me, the one who has all of the pieces lined up is Yuma Kagiyama (I'm trying to be unbiased here, I swear). Yuma has put out two near-clean FS at Japanese Nationals and 4CC, and has introduced the 4F into his programs with relative success. Although he hasn't landed it cleanly yet, it has looked fairly consistent in practice. He landed a beauty during the 6-minute warmup at 4CC, so we know he can do it during the pressure of competition. His almost-clean skate at 4CC gives him something to work on for Worlds whilst boosting his confidence, and gave him a huge momentum swing heading in. He has two of the strongest programs in the field, and his training has been really good heading in, as he mentioned during a recent open practice that his condition was really good. This is crucial for Yuma, as he tends to skate similarly in competition and practice and relies on solid training to combat nerves. He just finished a training intensive, likely in which he worked on his 4F consistency and jump/spin quality, and is currently heading to Canada to brush up on his choreography with Lori Nichol (and perhaps Caro). This is a very smart move, giving him a chance to adapt to the time zone and most likely opportunities to practice on an NHL-size rink prior to Worlds. For me, he is in the ideal position heading into Worlds. I think that he has all of the pieces to win, but again he just has to put everything together and skate like a champion like he did at 4CC. This is the best-poised Yuma has been to take a Worlds title and he has four years of experience to draw on to help him push through. I also wouldn't count out Shoma. He's had the longest break out of all of the top 4, and his skates at Japanese Nationals were quite solid. If he can just get his consistency and that extra quarter-turn rotation back, I would not be surprised to see him regain his World title. His programs are subtle, yes, but also masterpieces of skating and he has the BV to take the title as well. I have a feeling he will look like a different skater at Worlds compared to the fall and winter. I concur that Adam may have peaked too soon, doing that many competitions in a row has to be so hard on your body. He might have had the chance since Europeans to peak back up for Worlds, but even then, I think some of the roughness of his skating will hold him back. He's a fantastic skater to watch, but his 4Ts he's been posting recently on Instagram are just a little bit scratchy and forwards. In such a tight field, a +2 versus a +4 quad will make a huge difference in who medals and who doesn't.
But, as always, I think we will know more when the practices start. I am very excited for this event, and I think it could shape up to be one of the strongest Worlds we've seen in a while. (Hopefully I haven't jinxed the event or anyone with this post)
I agree about Beccari/Guarise - I wrote the preview before the Challenger Cup, but even then it was bold -I stand by my prediction just for fun, though
In regards to Yuma, I'd be the happiest if he managed to get that title, but I'm not sure he's there yet with his bv. I think Malinin, if he feels he will lose, will just pull out another 4-4-4 combo or whatever
I don't see Gilles/Poirier as winners. I think it's more likely that if Chock/Bates don't do it, it will be the Italians. But what do I know about ice dance, so
we'll see. My personal favourites are all teams that won't medal, so I guess I'll just try to enjoy the show.
