A fair way to pick GPF finalists?

[mrrice]

Any minute now I expect an announcement to the effect, "We plan to make an announcement by Thursday."

Do we know exactly who it is that are conducting these ruminations? The ISU Constitution gives the President and his Council virtually unlimited authority between Congresses. The Council does not have to solicit anyone's approval.

I still think the principle of scoring the Bompard event by the results at hand is cleanest and least objectionable. I hope they are not thinking along the lines, "How can we manipulate the rules to make sure that the most popular skaters will be there and we can make more money."

Mathman, I think that's exactly what's happening. Spain must be freaking out. No Patrick Chan in his big comeback season. Come on......The GPF needs Patrick as much as Patrick needs them.

 

[sowcow]

FYI, the ISU Council had met on Oct 16-18 in Lausanne.

The Council agreed to meet again on April 9-11, 2016 in Budapest, Hungary on June 5, 11 & 12, 2016 in Dubrovnik, Croatia. http://static.isu.org/media/241657/1975-decisions-of-the-council-communication.pdf​

Oops ... my mistake!

The correction has been made to the original post: see here

I actually did check the isu.org website to confirm the meeting date; and I did see the Oct 16-18 date for the (last) meeting in Lausanne. But, I must have been too focused on the actual days (i.e. 16-18), which just so happen to match up perfectly with the ISU meeting currently taking place this week in Lausanne. In other words, by coincidence Nov 16-18 happen to have been Monday, Tuesday and today (Wednesday) of this week. My Bad! [although, understandably bad!]

___________________________________
​

Nevertheless, it does not change my conclusion that...

I do NOT think there has been much $$$ lost due to the cancellation...

BALANCE SHEET:

So, as best as I can figure it...

REVENUES ≧ 78% of event budget
EXPENSES = same as event budget

Of course, everything is relative ... however, to this point, I do NOT think the ISU has lost significant $$$ because of the cancellation of TEB. Yes, they will be short some revenue; but, it is a "drop in the bucket" when looking at the ISU's overall yearly budget!

Cheers,
Steve

 

[YesWay]

Yes, there will be some loss due to ticket refunds; however I believe revenues from ticket sales at GP events usually comprise less than 33% of total revenues!? In the current TEB case, half the competition was cancelled (plus the popular exhibition) so refunds likely will amount to a maximum of ~⅔ (or ~66%) of total ticket revenues; which, assuming my 33% figure is correct, equates to ~22% of event revenues (= ⅔ x 33%).

Just to point out:

Friday TEB tickets cost peanuts (8 euros flat rate, no allocated seating)

Each of the two sessions on Saturday cost a lot more (eg. 55 euros for a "gold" seat), and tickets for the gala on Sunday cost more again (eg. 65 euros for a "gold" seat).

ie. your percentages are a long way out.

But on the other hand, not sure ticket revenue is that significant vs advertising etc... given the (relatively small) number of seats available, and they weren't sold out...

 

[Icey]

If they wait long enough, they won't have to make a decision. Are most of the skaters already in Moscow for the Russian leg of the competition?

 

[StitchMonkey]

If they wait long enough, they won't have to make a decision. Are most of the skaters already in Moscow for the Russian leg of the competition?

probably.... i think practices started today.

And this is what I am fearing as well... they are stalling to see how COR goes so they can make a more advantageous decision then...can't say I am a fan of that.

 

[tulosai]

If they wait long enough, they won't have to make a decision. Are most of the skaters already in Moscow for the Russian leg of the competition?

Yes they should be... official practices start bright and early tomorrow morning.

 

[mrrice]

probably.... I think practices started today.

And this is what i am fearing as well... They are stalling to see how cor goes so they can make a more advantageous decision then...can't say i am a fan of that.

Exactly!!! Can you imagine what these skaters are going through? Good grief, they've been through enough already and I can only imagine the extra stress this must be causing them and their Families.

 

[ice coverage]

... Do we know exactly who it is that are conducting these ruminations? The ISU Constitution gives the President and his Council virtually unlimited authority between Congresses. The Council does not have to solicit anyone's approval. ...

The ISU Council, AFAIK.

At Saturday's announcement of the cancellation of TEB, Peter Krick of the ISU said that "the Council" must make the decision ... and repeatedly referred to "the Council" in his remarks.
Krick's comments start at approx. 2:48 of The Blade Boys video:

https://youtu.be/R8zlqG9cd8o?t=2m48s​

(Krick said also that he would propose that the SP/SD results be used for GPF qualification, and that he expected his proposal to be accepted. But ... here we are still without definitive word on the outcome of his proposal.)

 

[StitchMonkey]

The ISU Council, AFAIK.

At Saturday's announcement of the cancellation of TEB, Peter Krick of the ISU said that "the Council" must make the decision ... and repeatedly referred to "the Council" in his remarks.
Krick's comments start at approx. 2:48 of The Blade Boys video:

https://youtu.be/R8zlqG9cd8o?t=2m48s​

(Krick said also that he would propose that the SP/SD results be used for GPF qualification, and that he expected his proposal to be accepted. But ... here we are still without definitive word on the outcome of his proposal.)

I am starting to wonder if he spoke too soon on this. Maybe other parties had more of a "cancel the whole event" mindset and are less than happy that this Pandora's box has been opened. Now, so many people seem to think take the SP is best, that the ISU will face much more backlash if they take a cancel it all approach than they would have if the seed had not been planted.

 

[sowcow]

Just to point out:

Friday TEB tickets cost peanuts (8 euros flat rate, no allocated seating)

The two sessions on Saturday cost a lot more (eg. 55 euros for a "gold" seat), and tickets for the gala cost more again (eg. 65 euros for a "gold" seat).

ie. your percentages are a long way out.

But on the other hand, not sure ticket revenue is that significant vs advertising etc... given the number of seats available, and they weren't sold out...

Re: "...your percentages are a long way out."

Maybe not as much as you'd think...

You're correct that tickets get more expensive as the competition goes on (and therefore contribute MORE to the overall event ticket revenues). Indeed, post-event accounting would normally show that ticket revenues from just the Friday portion of the TEB would likely contribute LESS THAN the 33% I claimed [which I used to represent the % of total TEB event ticket revenues that would NOT need to be refunded - see here]

BUT, the TEB was cancelled mid-competition. Therefore, revenue from SAME DAY ticket purchases would not have been collected. What % of tickets for GP Event competitions and GP Event exhibitions are sold "SAME DAY / DAY OF"?? That I don't know; but would guess it to be 33%+.

So, I agree that normally the Friday ticket sales would represent a smaller % of the total event ticket revenues (perhaps 20% versus the 33% I used in my calculation). BUT in this case, without the revenue contribution for SAME DAY / DAY OF ticket sales for the Saturday events and the Exhibition; therefore the ticket revenue for the Friday events will have contributed MORE THAN NORMAL to the overall event ticket revenues (...likely back around the ⅓ or ~33% level).

____________________


Regardless, I believe you're absolutely correct in your assessment that you're "...not sure ticket revenue is that significant [vis-à-vis total revenue]"; which is the more important point here in determining relative ISU $$$ losses as a result of the cancellation of the TEB.

Steve

 

[Eddie Lee]

Spain must be freaking out. No Patrick Chan in his big comeback season. Come on......The GPF needs Patrick as much as Patrick needs them.[/QUOTE]

Patrick Chan took a year away from competition. How did Figure skating survive his absence? No participant should receive preferential treatment. By the way, based on Chan's comp records, he's not an automatic shoo-in for any given competition--except maybe for Canadian Nationals!

 

[Mathman]

Mathman, I think that's exactly what's happening. Spain must be freaking out. No Patrick Chan in his big comeback season. Come on......The GPF needs Patrick as much as Patrick needs them.

To tell the truth, I don't think Chan is so terribly important to the event. It's in Spain, and the local fans will be cheering for Javier Fernadez, with plenty of nail-biting competition from Hanyu and others. Will the television ratings in Canada increase? Maybe a little, but the Grand Prix is not a television money-maker in any case, and Canadian fans have Duhamel & Radford and Weaver & Poje to keep their interest up. There will be greater focus on Nationals and Worlds, no matter how the the Grand Prix turns out.

Even so, I agree with your conclusion that Patrick and the GP Finals need each other about the same amount.

 

[mrrice]

Eddie Lee said, "Patrick Chan took a year away from competition. How did the Figure skating survive his absence? No participant should receive preferential treatment. By the way, based on Chan's comp records, he's not an automatic shoo-in for any given competition--except maybe for Canadian Nationals![/QUOTE]

Eddie, you're missing the point of what a "Comeback" is. Take Jeremy Abbott (Please ) Just Kidding. If he returns, several of his fans will be watching whether he wins or loses. Patrick doesn't have to win to make me watch him. That's what being a "Fan" is all about. We're in it for the long haul.

 

[tulosai]

Patrick Chan took a year away from competition. How did Figure skating survive his absence? No participant should receive preferential treatment. By the way, based on Chan's comp records, he's not an automatic shoo-in for any given competition--except maybe for Canadian Nationals!

Oh really? Please do elaborate.

I'm not a huge Chan fan myself but here are the facts:

From 2009-2013 Chan finished on the World podium all 5 times, and finished 1st three times. Actually furthermore the other two were silver- he didn't even get bronze. By his own choice he did not go to Worlds the next 2 years.

At the 2014 Olympics he was second.

He has made the GPF every year since 2007 except for 2009 and last year when he didn't compete at all. In the last 4 years that he made the final, he always finished on the podium and finished first twice.

He has meadled at every GP event he has entered, including the GPF, since the 2010-2011 season. Since the 2007-2008 season he has only failed to medal at 3 GP events, and 2 of those were the final.

Since the 2007-2008 season he has only not medaled at 5 events he entered total, and the last time he failed to medal was in the 2009-2010 season. 4 of the events he failed to medal at can fairly be classified as major (Worlds, Olys, GPF). The only 'minor' event he has failed to medal at was (get ready for it!) Skate Canada in 2009.

I'd say it's a pretty safe bet that he is indeed a shoo in for most competitions, sorry.

 

[mrrice]

To tell the truth, I don't think Chan is so terribly important to the event. It's in Spain, and the local fans will be cheering for Javier Fernadez, with plenty of nail-biting competition from Hanyu and others. Will the television ratings in Canada increase? Maybe a little, but the Grand Prix is not a television money-maker in any case, and Canadian fans have Duhamel & Radford and Weaver & Poje to keep their interest up. There will be greater focus on Nationals and Worlds, no matter how the the Grand Prix turns out.

Even so, I agree with your conclusion that Patrick and the GP Finals need each other about the same amount.

You're completely correct. Its just that I love watching Patrick skate, that's all. I can wait until Nationals......

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Patrick is definitely consistently high-scoring, if not consistently consistent.

 

[Mathman]

Eddie, you're missing the point of what a "Comeback" is. Take Jeremy Abbott (Please ) Just Kidding.

(We're in trouble now!)

Patrick doesn't have to win to make me watch him. That's what being a "Fan" is all about. We're in it for the long haul.

But this is true of any skater. I would tune in to watch Mirai, but I don't expect the ISU to create new rules just for me.

 

[Eddie Lee]

Exactly!!! So no jiggling to get him to the GP Final. If his winning Skate Canada plus his Standing at TEB (sans manipulation) earns him the GP final, fine. Short of that, no way!!!

 

[sowcow]

Similar to the weekly Grand Prix Event predictions ... it'll be interesting to see if anyone correctly predicts the outcome of the ISU decision/ruling (related to the TEB, and the subsequent ranking for the GPF)!!

...anyone care to figure out the 'odds'? hehe

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Similar to the weekly Grand Prix Event predictions ... it'll be interesting to see if anyone correctly predicts the outcome of the ISU decision/ruling (related to the TEB, and the subsequent ranking for the GPF)!!

...anyone care to figure out the 'odds'? hehe

For medals, I think they will use the SP results. My guess for GPF qualification is that TEB participants will have the option of double-counting their other result, or use the SP result as their TEB result combined with their other result. I don't think this is the most fair way but it is somewhat simple.