American Championships: Nationals Predictions Game Round 5

[jenaj]

LADIES
1. Mirai Nagasu
2. Bradie Tennell
3. Ashley Wagner
4. Karen Chen
5. Mariah Bell
6. Caroline Zhang

MEN
1. Nathan Chen
2. Adam Rippon
3. Max Aaron
4. Vincent Zhou
5. Jason Brown
6. Grant Hochstein

DANCE
1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Chock/Bates
3. Hubbell/Donohue
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. McNamara/ Carpenter
6. Parsons/ Parsons

PAIRS
1. Scimeca/Knierim
2. Cain/Leduc
3. Stellato/Bartholomay
4. Kayne/O’shea
5. Denney/Frazier
6. Castelli/Tran

 

[Off My Rocker]

Disclaimer: I have NO CLUE! So I’ll just wing it.

Ladies (anyone got any dice or bingo balls to “predict” this event? I wound up picking 6 names and drew for placement, the resulting order as follows. No science going on here...)
1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Bradie TENNELL
3. Mirai NAGASU
4. Courtney HICKS
5. Karen CHEN
6. Mariah BELL

Men
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Max AARON
3. Jason BROWN
4. Adam RIPPON
5. Alexei KRASNOZHON
6. Vincent ZHOU

Dance (decided to mix this one up, stray from the masses and go out on a limb…however I’m expecting to be WAY off base)
1. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
2. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
3. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
4. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
5. Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS
6. Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER

Pairs
1. Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM
2. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
3. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
4. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
5. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC
6. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

To all competitors, wishing personal best performances from everyone! Skate your hearts out!

 

[Starsfan84]

LADIES
1. Bradie Tennell
2. Mirai Nagasu
3. Ashley Wagner
4. Karen Chen
5. Mariah Bell
6. Courtney Hicks

MEN
1. Nathan Chen
2. Adam Rippon
3. Jason Brown
4. Max Aaron
5. Vincent Zhou
6. Alexei Krasnozhon

DANCE
1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Chock/Bates
3. Hubbell/Donohue
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. McNamara/ Carpenter
6. Parsons/ Parsons

PAIRS
1. Scimeca/Knierim
2. Denney/Frazier
3. Cain/Leduc
4. Castelli/Tran
5. Stellato/Bartholomay
6. Kayne/O’shea

 

[LaArdilla]

Ladies:

1. Mirai NAGASU
2. Ashley WAGNER
3. Bradie TENNELL
4. Karen CHEN
5. Courtney HICKS
6. Mariah BELL


Men:

1. Nathan CHEN
2. Adam RIPPON
3. Jason BROWN
4. Max AARON
5. Vincent ZHOU
6. Alexei KRASNOZHON


Pairs:

1. Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM
2. Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA
3. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
4. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
5. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC
6. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY


Ice Dance:

1. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
2. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
3. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
6. Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS

 

[AKGROWN]

Ladies

The ladies event for me is all about a paradigm shift that needs to occur in US Ladies skating. It needs to start now so that the next Olympic cycle is full of healthy, well-rounded, and well-balanced skaters who are prepared for a future beyond skating. I absolutely hate what I’ve seen happen to so many young skaters who see success early on but cannot sustain it and are nearly broken by it (Gold, Edmunds, Nagasu – should I keep going?). Far too much pressure is placed on these young ladies. They are not allowed to mature and develop into well-rounded young women. It is no wonder they crumble under the pressure and “fail to deliver”. Honestly, I wish we had a higher minimum age limit for senior ladies. I understand how puberty can wreck jumps however, if the culture in skating were to change, to support these girls as they become women, we might see less injuries; less one-hit-wonders at age 14; more emotionally and physically healthy people; and skaters who are equally as talented technicians and artists.

1. Wagner or Nagasu. I’m actually fine with a 1-2 placement ether way as long as both make the Olympic Team.
a. For Nagasu, I want her to prove to herself it wasn’t a fluke for her to have won Nationals so many years ago nor was her placement at the Olympics a fluke either. I have to believe she has held on to skating for so long because she really does love it and I’d like to see her reap those rewards. I’m not sure if winning another Nationals does that for her, but I certainly think making the Olympic Team does.
b. For Wagner, I think I’d like her to finish 2nd and would be okay if she had a mistake or areas for improvement. La-La Land will be new – so I expect there to be room for improvements. Wagner likes being the underdog and seems to do well when she has something to prove. If I were to play psychologist, I think she needs to know she earned her spot on the Olympic Team fair and square. There are times when I really admire her spirit and times when I’m just over the drama that seems to surround her. With that said, she has carried the US Ladies on her back for so many years it’s time for things to go her way. She’s earned at least that.

3. Chen or Hicks. I’m rather ambivalent about their skating. What I do appreciate is both ladies are mature, well-rounded, and have paid their dues.
4. Bell or Tennell – I see Bell and Tennell as skaters for the next cycle. My fear is that they are experiencing too much success too quickly – especially Tennell. I’d rather they spend the next 4 years honing their skills, solidifying their technique, developing their artistry, and gaining more experience. In essence, developing into more well-rounded skaters and people. USFS needs to take the time to develop these skaters (and others – get rid of Nationals for anyone under Novice. That success doesn’t translate to Juniors and Seniors. Cultivate a healthy and deep Junior and Senior field) so that the success they have is sustainable and they are in a much better position to navigate the challenges that will come with the success eludes them.

Men
1. Chen
2. Rippon
3. Brown
4. Arron
5. Zhou

Pairs – IDK

Dance
1. Hubble/Donahue (yeah, it won’t happen. In the past, I’ve not been a fan of their music choices but this year, WOW!! They are growing on me and frankly, I think I just didn’t understand them as a couple before. I’d love it if they earned the Olympic bronze).
2. Shibs
3. Chock/Bates

 

[Ice Diva]

Ice Dance:
1. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONAHUE (if I keep hoping, it could happen) :hap93:
2. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
3. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
4. Kaitlyn HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
6. Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS

Pairs:
1. Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM
2. Haven DENNY / Brandon FRAZIER
3. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
4. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC
5. Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA
6. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

Ladies:
1. Bradie TENNELL
2. Mirai NAGASU
3. Ashley WAGNER
4. Karen CHEN
5. Courtney HICKS
6. Mariah BELL

Men:
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Jason BROWN
3. Adam RIPPON
4. Max AARON
5. Vincent ZHOU
6. Alexei KRASNOZHON

 

[skylark]

Ladies

The ladies event for me is all about a paradigm shift that needs to occur in US Ladies skating. .... Honestly, I wish we had a higher minimum age limit for senior ladies. I understand how puberty can wreck jumps however, if the culture in skating were to change, to support these girls as they become women, we might see less injuries; less one-hit-wonders at age 14; more emotionally and physically healthy people; and skaters who are equally as talented technicians and artists.

:agree: :hap57:

 

[Hyena]

Ladies:
1. Bradie TENNELL
2. Mirai NAGASU
3. Ashley WAGNER
4. Karen CHEN
5. Caroline ZHANG
6. Courtney HICKS


Men:
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Adam RIPPON
3. Max AARON
4. Jason BROWN
5. Alexei KRASNOZHON
6. Vincent ZHOU


Pairs:
1. Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM
2. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC
3. Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA
4. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
5. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
6. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY


Ice Dance:
1. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
2. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
3. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
6. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT

 

[penniavaswen]

Men
1. Nathan Chen
2. Adam Rippon
3. Max Aaron
4. Jason Brown
5. Vincent Zhou
6. Alex Krasnozhon

Ladies
1. Mirai Nagasu
2. Bradie Tennell
3. Ashley Wagner
4. Karen Chen
5. Caroline Zhang
6. Mariah Bell

Pairs
1. Scimeca/Knierim
2. Cain/Leduc
3. Castelli/Tran
4. Stellato/Bartholomay
5. Denney/Frazier
6. Kayne/O’shea

Dance
1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Chock/Bates
3. Hubbell/Donohue
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. McNamara/Carpenter
6. Parsons/Parsons

 

[Alchamei]

Ladies
1.Nagasu
2.Tennell
3.Wagner
4.Chen
5.Bell
6.Edmunds

Men
1.Chen
2.Brown
3.Rippon
4.Aaron
5.Zhou
6.Hochstein

Pairs
1.Scimeca-Knierim/Knierim
2.Cain/Leduc
3.Denney/Frazier
4.Casteli/Tran
5.Kayne/O'Ohea
6.Stellato/Bartholomay

Ice Dance
1.Hubbell/Donohue
2.Shibutani/Shibutani
3.Chock/Bates
4.Hawayek/Baker
5.Parsons/Parsons
6.McNamara/Carpenter

 

[falling_dance]

Ladies

1. Bradie Tennell
2. Karen Chen
3. Mirai Nagasu
4. Ashley Wagner (I wouldn't mind being wrong here.)
5. Caroline Zhang
6. Courtney Hicks

Men

1. Nathan Chen
2. Adam Rippon
3. Jason Brown
4. Max Aaron
5. Vincent Zhou
6. Grant Hochstein

Pairs

1. Scimeca/Knierim
2. Denney/Frazier
3. Castelli/Tran
4. Kayne/O'Shea
5. Stellato/Bartholomay
6. Cain/LeDuc

Dance

1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Chock/Bates
3. Hubbell/Donohue
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. McNamara/Carpenter
6. Parsons/Parsons

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Right everybody. Some news.

Now that the SP Start Orders have been put onto the Entries / Results Page, we can see that there have been some changes to the entry lists.

The first thing to note is that there are no changes to the Singles categories. So, that is something.

In Pairs, there is one withdrawal:

No.	Name	Club	Qualifying
W/D	Jade ESPOSITO / Rique NEWBY-ESTRELLA	Colonial FSC / Dallas FSC	Eastern 2

Meanwhile, the following partnerships have been added:

StN.	Name	Club	Qualifying
1	Alexandria YAO / Jacob SIMON	Peninsula SC / Skokie Valley SC
9	Caitlin FIELDS / Ernie Utah STEVENS	Indiana World Sk Acad FSC / Indiana World Sk Acad FSC
11	Winter DEARDORFF / Max SETTLAGE	Northern Kentucky SC / Broadmoor SC
14	Nica DIGERNESS / Danny NEUDECKER	Broadmoor SC / Seattle SC

The Short Dance start order hasn't been posted yet. But, I really hope there aren't any changes, as I am going to make out my predictions now.

Hope this helps

CaroLiza_fan

 

[Antyv]

...
Meanwhile, the following partnerships have been added:
...

With such big changes it is necessary to arrange voting before the beginning of each events, and not an hour before all events. The preliminary list of pairs was very incorrect.

 

[synteis]

Ladies:
1. Mirai Nagasu
2. Bradie Tennell
3. Ashley Wagner
4. Starr Andrews
5. Karen Chen
6. Mariah Bell

Men:
1. Nathan Chen
2. Jason Brown
3. Adam Rippon
4. Max Aaron
5. Vincent Zhou
6. Grant Hotchstein

Dance:
1. Shibutanis
2. Hubbell/Donahue
3. Chock/Bates
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. McNamara/Carpenter
6. Parsons/Parsons

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

With such big changes it is necessary to arrange voting before the beginning of each events, and not an hour before all events. The preliminary list of pairs was very incorrect.

I don't know what was up wth the USFSA this year. Normally, they have a PDF that gets continuously updated in the weeks leading up the Nationals, and somebody (usually ice coverage) would keep an eye on it and let us know if there were changes.

But, I couldn't find a link a PDF for this year's Nationals on here, and I am not familiar enough with the USFSA website to know where to find it, given that it wasn't in the obvious places.

So, since I don't follow American domestic skating, I was just relying on the extremely useful posts that Doris had put up in each of the competition threads.

As somebody who organises Predictions Games, it drives me mad that organisers of some events don't put up the Entries / Results Pages until the day before the event starts. Admittedly, for this event, there were lower age level competitions before the Senior competitions started. But, the problem here was that Entry /Results Pages made by Ice Network don't have a page listing the Entries. So, you don't know for sure who is competing until the SP Start Orders are put up.

If the organisers announced the Start Orders in advance, there would be no problem. Like, Skate Canada announced the Start Orders for Canadian Nationals weeks ago. But, no. In America, they do it the day before the competition is held. Which is why there is no Short Dance Start Order yet, because that competition isn't until Friday.

And that is why I wish all skating competitions had the SP Start Orders strictly following the ranking of the skaters. Because it would make life an awful lot simpler in many ways.

Anyway, for the Nationals Game, you can post predictions for each category right up to the start of it's SP. And that is the way it has always been for the Nationals Game and the ISU Game, for the simple reason that they include events that are spread out over a whole week, or even longer. Not like the GP's, which are condensed into a few days.

For the Nationals Game and the ISU Game, the time in the OP is a target time to get your predictions in, rather than a deadline (which it is with the GP Game). We just advise you to do it early so that you aren't running around at the last minute.

But it still doesn't make it any less annoying when the organisers don't release the information early, though.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[geige]

What I think will happen:

Men:
1. Nathan Chen
2. Adam Rippon
3. Jason Brown
4. Max Aaron
5. Vincent Zhou
6. Grant Hochstein

Ladies:
1. Bradie Tennell
2. Ashley Wagner
3. Karen Chen
4. Mariah Bell
5. Mirai Nagasu
6. Caroline Zhang

What I really want:
1. MIRAI
Everybody else ties for last place

Please prove me wrong Mirai

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

I have to be honest here. When it came to the Ladies, I took the two skaters who I have really big soft spots for, and put them straight to the top. And put them in the order I would most like to see them finish.

For the remaining podium place, I was being pulled in so many directions. Do I go for experience (Ashley)? Do I go for the revelation of this season (Bradie)? Do I go for the revelation of last season (Mariah)? Do I go for the youngster who has been looking promising for the past few years (Karen)?

I don’t know what Ashley’s condition is now. But, after what happened at Skate America, I am inclined to be cautious. So, I decided to put her outside my Top 5.

Of the remaining three, I made my decision based on how they have been doing this season. Each of them have done three competitions where they have done 2 segments (I word it like that because Karen had 2 competitions where she only skated in 1 segment).

Generally speaking, Bradie has been scoring highest. So, I chose her for the remaining podium position. Which is good going considering I had never even heard tell of her this time 2 months ago.

With Karen and Mariah, it was tough choosing. Because although Mariah had the highest SB of the two, her other scores were lower than all of Karen’s.

For my alternate, I was dithering between Ashley and somebody who I would love to see up there – Caroline Zhang. But, even if she isn’t fully fit, I still see Ashley as more likely to get into the Top 6 than Caroline. So, I went for Ashley, and then Caroline.

For the rest of the field, I just put them into absolute PB order. Although there are quite a few that I am familiar with (more than I was expecting going into this), I haven’t actually seen many of them recently.

With the Men, I also knew who I was putting into the Top 2 positions regardless of who was there. Nathan was the obvious choice for winner. But, I wanted go with Max for the silver.

Whether he gets it or not will be down to the guys that I knew were going to be my next two, but just hadn’t decided which way round to put them. Jason and Adam have actually been achieving very similar scores to each other and to Max so far this season. So, there was nothing to choose between them.

But, I personally like Jason more. So, I put him on the remaining step on the podium.

Although I don’t like the version of the song he is using for his SP (despite what his ISU Bio says, it is NOT Snow Patrol singing. If it had been, I would have loved it!), Vincent was always going to be completing my Top 5.

The question was who to have as my alternate. I had three names in mind – Hochstein, Krasnozhon and Dolensky. That was the order I was thinking of having them in. But then I looked up their scores and found that although Grant had the highest absolute PB of the three, it was 2 years old. And the other two have been scoring significantly higher than him this season. So I put him into 8th (ooh, one place lower than I put his fiancée in Ladies.)

Both Tim and Alexei set their absolute PB’s at their most recent competition. And there were only 2 points difference, in Tim’s favour. But, he has only done 3 competitions since last year’s Nationals, all of which have been in the US. Alexei has done 6 competitions, and they have been a mixture of domestic and international events. So, I went for him as my alternate.

For the rest of the field, I kept them in absolute PB order. Yes, I know Ross’ absolute PB is from way back in 2013, but his recent scores have been pretty respectable. He is by no means finished yet.

In Pairs, I knew who were going into my Top 5 , and in what order. The question was who to have as my alternate. And there were quite a few to choose between. Because, I haven’t seen a lot of these partnerships for a long time. And so don’t I know where they are liable to be compared to those few that I have soon.

So, I went to the absolute PB’s. And I quite liked the order that it came up with, so I went with it.

I am not doing my Ice Dance predictions yet, just in case there are any late changes to the entries.

CaroLiza_fan


AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIPS

Ladies

1. Mirai NAGASU
2. Polina EDMUNDS
3. Bradie TENNELL
4. Karen CHEN
5. Mariah BELL

Just for fun:
6. Ashley WAGNER
7. Caroline ZHANG
8. Amber GLENN
9. Starr ANDREWS
10. Angela WANG


Men

1. Nathan CHEN
2. Max AARON
3. Jason BROWN
4. Adam RIPPON
5. Vincent ZHOU

Just for fun:
6. Alexei KRASNOZHON
7. Timothy DOLENSKY
8. Grant HOCHSTEIN
9. Ross MINER
10. Alexander JOHNSON


Pairs

1. Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM
2. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
3. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC
4. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
5. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN

Just for fun:
6. Chelsea LIU / Brian JOHNSON
7. Jessica CALALANG / Zack SIDHU
8. Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN
9. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY
10. Erika SMITH / AJ REISS

 

[desertskates]

This one is soooo tough for the ladies Really hoping everyone ends the week feeling they skated their very best. Good luck to your faves!

Men:

1. Chen
2. Ripppon
3. Aaron
4. Brown
5. Zhou
6. Dolensky

Ladies:

1. Tennell
2. Wagner
3. Nagasu
4. Bell
5. Chen
6. Hicks

Pairs:

1. Scimeca-Knierim / Knierim
2. Cain / LeDuc
3. Castelli / Tran
4. Denney / Frazier
5. Stellato / Barthalomey
6. Calalang / Sidhu

Dance:

1. Shibutani / Shibutani
2. Chock / Bates
3. Hubbell / Donohue
4. Hawayek / Baker
5. McNamara / Carpenter
6. Parsons / Parsons

 

[ice coverage]

I don't know what was up wth the USFSA this year. Normally, they have a PDF that gets continuously updated in the weeks leading up the Nationals, and somebody (usually ice coverage) would keep an eye on it and let us know if there were changes.

But, I couldn't find a link a PDF for this year's Nationals on here, and I am not familiar enough with the USFSA website to know where to find it, given that it wasn't in the obvious places.

So, since I don't follow American domestic skating, I was just relying on the extremely useful posts that Doris had put up in each of the competition threads.

.... If the organisers announced the Start Orders in advance, there would be no problem. Like, Skate Canada announced the Start Orders for Canadian Nationals weeks ago. But, no. In America, they do it the day before the competition is held. Which is why there is no Short Dance Start Order yet, because that competition isn't until Friday. ...

Water under the bridge, but my three cents, since you mentioned me:

(1) The link to the USFS pdf of Nats qualifiers has been on the USFS home page for some days now. [The USFS home page always has been the source of the PDF link, in my experience.]
It is true that USFS did not publish the PDF as early as usual.
Sylvia had posted a list weeks earlier on her blog. Sylvia is not an official source, but she has a very strong track record for reliability. Sylvia's blog is well-known and well-respected among fans interested in U.S. skaters.
Weeks before the USFS pdf became available, the link to Sylvia's blog was posted on GS (by Mrs. P and others, IIRC).
I cannot remember whether or not someone on GS posted the USFS pdf of Nats qualifiers.
(I did not bother to, because by then it seemed that anyone who cared about the list of qualifiers already was well aware of Sylvia's lists. And Sylvia's lists [both of Nats qualifiers and of Nats practice groups] proved to be 100% reliable.)

(2) It is impossible for IceNetwork to post starting orders until USFS holds the draws.
USFS generally does not hold the draws until a day or two before each segment, and then IceNetwork posts starting orders within hours of each draw.
The Senior Short Dance Draw does not take place until 10:15 am PT today (Wednesday Jan 3).

(3) It is inevitable that multiple threads are discussing US Nats, and information gets posted in multiple threads.
For example, on Dec 2, I had posted that Digerness/Neudecker and Deardorff/Settlage would compete in Senior Pairs -- with the source being Broadmoor Skating Club.

https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/s...ss-nationals&p=1875333&viewfull=1#post1875333​

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I have to be honest here. When it came to the Ladies, I took the two skaters who I have really big soft spots for, and put them straight to the top. And put them in the order I would most like to see them finish.

For the remaining podium place, I was being pulled in so many directions. Do I go for experience (Ashley)? Do I go for the revelation of this season (Bradie)? Do I go for the revelation of last season (Mariah)? Do I go for the youngster who has been looking promising for the past few years (Karen)?

I don’t know what Ashley’s condition is now. But, after what happened at Skate America, I am inclined to be cautious. So, I decided to put her outside my Top 5.

Of the remaining three, I made my decision based on how they have been doing this season. Each of them have done three competitions where they have done 2 segments (I word it like that because Karen had 2 competitions where she only skated in 1 segment).

Generally speaking, Bradie has been scoring highest. So, I chose her for the remaining podium position. Which is good going considering I had never even heard tell of her this time 2 months ago.

With Karen and Mariah, it was tough choosing. Because although Mariah had the highest SB of the two, her other scores were lower than all of Karen’s.

For my alternate, I was dithering between Ashley and somebody who I would love to see up there – Caroline Zhang. But, even if she isn’t fully fit, I still see Ashley as more likely to get into the Top 6 than Caroline. So, I went for Ashley, and then Caroline.

For the rest of the field, I just put them into absolute PB order. Although there are quite a few that I am familiar with (more than I was expecting going into this), I haven’t actually seen many of them recently.

With the Men, I also knew who I was putting into the Top 2 positions regardless of who was there. Nathan was the obvious choice for winner. But, I wanted go with Max for the silver.

Whether he gets it or not will be down to the guys that I knew were going to be my next two, but just hadn’t decided which way round to put them. Jason and Adam have actually been achieving very similar scores to each other and to Max so far this season. So, there was nothing to choose between them.

But, I personally like Jason more. So, I put him on the remaining step on the podium.

Although I don’t like the version of the song he is using for his SP (despite what his ISU Bio says, it is NOT Snow Patrol singing. If it had been, I would have loved it!), Vincent was always going to be completing my Top 5.

The question was who to have as my alternate. I had three names in mind – Hochstein, Krasnozhon and Dolensky. That was the order I was thinking of having them in. But then I looked up their scores and found that although Grant had the highest absolute PB of the three, it was 2 years old. And the other two have been scoring significantly higher than him this season. So I put him into 8th (ooh, one place lower than I put his fiancée in Ladies.)

Both Tim and Alexei set their absolute PB’s at their most recent competition. And there were only 2 points difference, in Tim’s favour. But, he has only done 3 competitions since last year’s Nationals, all of which have been in the US. Alexei has done 6 competitions, and they have been a mixture of domestic and international events. So, I went for him as my alternate.

For the rest of the field, I kept them in absolute PB order. Yes, I know Ross’ absolute PB is from way back in 2013, but his recent scores have been pretty respectable. He is by no means finished yet.

In Pairs, I knew who were going into my Top 5 , and in what order. The question was who to have as my alternate. And there were quite a few to choose between. Because, I haven’t seen a lot of these partnerships for a long time. And so don’t I know where they are liable to be compared to those few that I have soon.

So, I went to the absolute PB’s. And I quite liked the order that it came up with, so I went with it.

I am not doing my Ice Dance predictions yet, just in case there are any late changes to the entries.

CaroLiza_fan


AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIPS

Ladies

1. Mirai NAGASU
2. Polina EDMUNDS
3. Bradie TENNELL
4. Karen CHEN
5. Mariah BELL

Just for fun:
6. Ashley WAGNER
7. Caroline ZHANG
8. Amber GLENN
9. Starr ANDREWS
10. Angela WANG


Men

1. Nathan CHEN
2. Max AARON
3. Jason BROWN
4. Adam RIPPON
5. Vincent ZHOU

Just for fun:
6. Alexei KRASNOZHON
7. Timothy DOLENSKY
8. Grant HOCHSTEIN
9. Ross MINER
10. Alexander JOHNSON


Pairs

1. Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM
2. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
3. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC
4. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
5. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN

Just for fun:
6. Chelsea LIU / Brian JOHNSON
7. Jessica CALALANG / Zack SIDHU
8. Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN
9. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY
10. Erika SMITH / AJ REISS

I love how you always put your faves at the top, no matter what
If Polina does place, you'll be the clear gold medalist here!