5. If the paradigm shift with men and ladies was sudden (quads one year, no quads the next; juniors with amazing success on seniors immediately) and pairs virtually non-existent, the paradigm shift in ice dance has been marked, gradual and perhaps the most complex. And nowhere is the dichotomy (trichotomy?) as complex as within the European scene. I think how Euros’ plays out with be an interesting blueprint for the rest of the quad in Europe.
Anyone paying attention knows that
Pechelat/Bourzat are the favourites. And with good reason! They have two acclaimed programs, have finally emerged as the French Fed’s number one (no asterisk necessary) and have CLEARLY worked extremely hard heading into this season). But they’re not locks. They have no error buffer (should other top teams skate clean). Their biggest advantage over the field is that they can produce high-level, high quality performances (good/great TES) and their PCS are equal or better than the rest. It would constitute a minor surprise if they lost.
But if they do, it’ll be to
Faiella/Scali. Just to reiteration: bronze at first GP. WD of the next. That was their 10/11 season thus far. But remember, that was their 09/10 season too, and we know how that turned out: silver at Euros, top five at the Olympics, bronze at home. So it’s definitely plausible for them to rise as the season progresses. But doesn’t everyone just wonder... what if last year was a peak? It happens – the right confluence of events (withdraws, injuries, luck, training) allows a skater/team to have a great season/moment that remains unmatched for the rest of their career (Stefan Lindemann at Worlds 04, Chait/Sakhnovski at Worlds 02). And I sorta feel that way about F/S.
And then there’s the
Kerrs. You know, I really thought they’d hang in there a season or two, have a couple good results, snag the European title at home in 2012, and call it a day with their best result. But losing to C/P, while somewhat predictable (a technically gifted young team at home) was still a bit jarring, even if you’re used to the new paradigm. An injury taking them out of CoR... not what the doctor ordered for a team that even when healthy struggles to get the high marks on TES (which are more important when your PCS advantage is minimized).
I think most of us, heading into this season would’ve predicted these as our European Medalists. But the skate gods.... they’re Dionysian tricksters sometimes. And this is where the current state becomes... murky.
What to do about Russian trio? The internet buzz was all about
Ilynikh/Katsalpov. They were gonna do what the Canton quartet did - shoot to top ten their first year at Worlds. Follow that with a medal or two then win in Sochi with the weight of the mighty Russian federation behind them. The new paradigm was quick, instant success, a far cry from the old work your way up the ranks of the days of yore. Ignore the fact that the circumstances were dramatically different. Then came the skates. Missing the podium at NHK? Explanable (though not so much when you remember they beat the Shibutanis the year prior up and down the block, and now were losing to them even when the Shibs had a fall!). Barely making the podium at Russian Nationals? Just over a new team that was disgracefully overmarked? Not so much. You’ve gotta wonder about just how much politicking effects things when you hear Tarasova criticizing them for their lack of prep work but pushing K/A with her might.
Then we have
Bobrova/Soloviev. The thing that makes this so weird is that basically they went from the number three Russian team (slightly) to the number one. Remember, in 2008/09 they were fourth at Russian Nationals (and this is without DomShabs competing), and they only clinched their Olympic spot by less than a point, so you have the sense that they were never really the ascending stars in the eyes of the federation. So what now? They’re good skaters without much to be excited about (how some people feel about Crone/Poirier). I do think the Kerrs need to be worried, as do F/S (if they haven’t figured out what went wrong earlier this season, beyond the dress). I think they’ll be on the podium.
And finally,
Riazanova/Tkachenko. If you check out
this thread, you’ll see most of us neglected to mention them, but man-oh-man have they made a splash. This is even more surprising when you remember that Riazanova and Tkachenko are also fairly new to each other. Actually, is Wikipedia is accurate, this team is newer than Ilynikh/Katsalpov! While their best isn’t really close to B/S’s, I do think they have the potential to score quite well.
Also, a strong skate could push
Hoffman/Zavosin into the top five, but they need someone to bomb/underperform. And a little lament for
Cappellini/Lanotte. Like
Samuelson/Bates, this is probably the worst season to lose.
