I still don't think she needs this at all. A clean SP and 2 4Ts should be enough quite handedly. There is no more debate about underscoring, she got completely acceptable PCS and GOE at the qualifier there is not much reason to expect Olympics will have some sort of egregious meddling. She didn't even skate well there. It would take at minimum 2 axels and otherwise clean programs from someone else which I don't see happening. Adeliia's GOEs are huge and her spins are clearly the best, StSq likely second to none so might even require a third axel from a challenger if she even takes 33 PCS in the SP and comparable FS scoring. Glenn's 3A looks better but otherwise still inconsistent and nervous, Alyssa seems really far from a 3A right now though I heard she had boot issues and apparently wasn't training properly, but based on recent performance I have my doubts that she is that far off her peak.
I think that there are others who are capable of getting solid GOEs and of presenting excellent spins and footwork. To me, what can't be dismissed is the base value of big jumps. I think that this is especially true at the Olympics, where the eyes of the world are upon us. If Petrosian does two quad toes but no triple Axel, and someone else does two triple Axls but no quads (assuming everybody is cleanish, of course), that may not be a margin that is impossible to overcome.
Oh I agree, I'm just saying Adeliia isn't at any disadvantage anywhere which is what makes the BV dangerous. The BV could reasonably be overcome with superior levels, GOEs and PCS. Well, at least 2 4Ts could be, 4 ultra-c would indeed be a wrap no matter what. I do think her spins are the best by a margin though it seems even the most hard-hearted redditors agree with this. Point is there doesn't seem to be anywhere that any other skater could even slowly creep up on her by adding up small gaps, which is generally how BVs get overcome.
Yes but it would require a pretty big PCS gap, and I don't know, we don't see 36s that often internationally so if Adeliia even gets 33 which is entirely likely this gap isn't big enough to close the difference considering the spin GOEs alone on top of the BV. Only 2 4Ts would definitely make it close enough to where a couple minuses could lose it for her though.
This question is one of the most exciting of the season indeed. We just began so difficult to speculate. It would likely be one of the Japanese girls who have a, in my opinion. Amber just doesn't look mentally ready for it yet. We'll see how she does in this coming FS though.
Agreed. But to me it is beginning to look like a triple Axel will be necessary, although not sufficient.
TBH, my opinion stayed the exact same. It seems as I said, that Glenn has a great axel, but still inconsistent. Liu needs her 3A. The other girls are lagging although there was some underscoring on PCS. Sub-200 won't cut it. I am more interested than anything right now to see Nakai. If she can skate as she did a second time and prove it wasn't a fluke, she will likely become the favourite from the internationals.
They are going to need a lot more than this if they want to start closing any sort of gaps. Its starting to look rough. We need 9s. More levels. More everything.
If it weren't for Adeliia, I would say no. Although, Nakai would be the final answer to this question. Until she proves herself a clean Kaori without even any ultra-c seems to be the most dangerous skater. Its hard to see her being so inconsistent. I hope for this final season she really puts in the work to peak one last time. Adeliia said after qualification and test skates she took another break and just started recovering again. I'd suggest taking a look at her SP from yesterday it was already a different skater from what we saw earlier. 2 4Ts planned today it will tell us a lot. If she falls it wont say much to me, other than that all our girls, including the internationals, need a lot more time and we're all looking similar. If she lands them already in this state, its big.
This season, only Kaori Sakamoto and Ami Nakai have scored in this range (224.23 and 227.08 respectively) but the season has merely begun.
I have a sneaky feeling that the craziest triple Axel fest won't take place in the Olympic Games. Instead, we will see it in the Japanese Nationals where ladies will fight for the remaining Olympic spot
Well, that changes the equation. If Adelia is not guaranteed to come to Milano with an automatic 10 point lead before the skating even begins, then the focus changes from big jumps to clean skate.
Certainly a skater has to deliver on her content.
That's where the fun comes in, As the season progresses we can look back on our early fortune-telling and laugh at ourselves. I have already moved Amber Glenn up a notch for the time being.
