Chan v. Hanyu: 2015-16

[Ophelia]

By the way people continuously go on and on and on and on and on about Chan's edges and SS, you'd think they were talking about the qualifications for the greatest male ice dancer ever.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Canada is unlikely to win the gold medal in the team event.

LADIES. The current crop of ladies cannot compete with the Russian and Japanese ladies and while there are no promising younger Canadian ladies coming up, there are plenty of both Russian and Japanese prodigies in the wings eager to move up and romp.

MEN. Chan is the best Canadian man, but he will be 27 in 2018 and it remains to be seen if he will be able to expand his repertoire enough to be competitive with Hanyu,who will be 22 for the Olympics, and Uno,who will be 20. Nam will be 19 and has the jumps, altbeit small, but he lacks charisma. Then there's Jing, who could improve his presentation with the proper coaching.

PAIRS. Duhamel/Radford are not invincible after all, which was proved in the GPF this year, and they will be 30 and 31 in the Olympics. They will be challenged by the two young Chinese teams Yu/Jin and Sui/Han as well as Stolbova/Klimov.

DANCE. Right now, Weaver / Poje are riding high as the GPF champions. But as we all know, rankings in ice dance can change rapidly when no one team has been dominant for years, which has been the status quo since V/M and D/W left after the last Olympics. W/P won the GPF last year but lost the World Championship to Papadakis/Cizerone, and World silver to Chock/Bates.

IMO, Canada looks pretty good for silver again, but gold is very unlikely.

But you also need to consider:
1) LADIES - Russia is incredibly far ahead of Canada, but there are Japanese skaters who might place above the Russian entries and make it a closer race -- and it's not held in Sochi where Lipnitskaia was propped above Kostner in the SP; if anything Korea might be more likely to hold down Russian female skaters I could picture an Canadian skater placing 5th SP and 4th FS, with a Russian skater only winning one of the SP or LP
2) MEN - Here's where the Canadians are likely to make up ground lost in ladies; a lot depends on the development of Pitkeev and Nguyen; again, like ladies the Russian team won't have the benefit of skating in Sochi (i.e. Plushenko's FS would have probably placed behind Reynolds and Machida if it was in Korea versus Sochi), so the placements might not be as high
3) PAIRS - D/R aren't invincible (heavy faves, but no realist would have called them invincible), and it'll be interesting to see if they can hold off the Chinese; this discipline (like Dance) is way too up and down to predict right now -- especially given we don't know how Seguin/Bilodeau (who, btw, beat Stolbova/Klimov at Skate America ) will progress... as far as age -- well, Shen/Zhao were much older when they won the OGM, just saying
4) DANCE - Weaver/Poje will be a force come 2018, but the Russians are currently way behind... Bobrova/Soloviev were the highest ranked Russian team to make it to the GPF and it wasn't even close - Americans, Italians and Canadians ahead of them -- and likely French too if Pap/Ciz had competed at the level they were last season.

I think it's way too early to predict. But Russia was extremely strong in the team competition in Sochi, particularly due to unexpectedly high-placing performances by Plushenko and Lipnitskaia. They are however (at the moment) weaker in men's and ice dance, whereas Canada could quite possibly place 1st in pairs (versus Sochi where 2nd place was pretty much the best possibility in both segments), and quite possibly place 1st in ice dance (versus Sochi where 2nd was pretty much the best possibility by V/M in both segments against D/W). If the current state of affairs continues, and given the lack of Sochi Russianflation, it'll definitely be a much closer call than saying "gold is very unlikely" for Canada.

 

[Mathman]

Just for reference, this is what the judges are supposed to be looking for in scoring the the "Skating Skills" component.

Balance, rhythmic knee action, and precision of foot placement. Flow and effortless glide. Rhythm, strength, clean strokes, and an efficient use of lean create a steady run to the blade and an ease of transfer of weight resulting in seemingly effortless power and acceleration.

Cleanness and sureness of deep edges, steps, and turns. The skater should demonstrate clean and controlled curves, deep edges, and steps.

Varied use of power/energy, speed, and acceleration. Variety is the gradation – some of which may be subtle

Multi directional skating. Includes all direction of skating: forward and backward, clockwise and counterclockwise including rotation in both directions.

Mastery of one foot skating. No over use of skating on two feet.

 

[noskates]

The Olympics are more than 2 years away from now. If it's fun to spend time predicting - have at it. But so many factors can change between now and then. Injuries, teams breaking up, whatever. Other than having something to talk about I think it's pretty ridiculous to even try and predict what will happen.

 

[FlattFan]

By the way people continuously go on and on and on and on and on about Chan's edges and SS, you'd think they were talking about the qualifications for the greatest male ice dancer ever.

Eh, ice dancers, on average, have better skating skills than single skaters. That's because all they do is working on their skating skills. But if you can find any male ice dancer who can compete with Patrick Chan, you might as well skin him and put him in a museum. Charlie White is not even close, and he's 99%-ile.

 

[wookchub]

where did you hear he doesn't like competing? I heard the opposite... he has said he likes the energy around the competitions. He likes the preparation. He loves skating that is why he is back... I mean, Katarina Witt came back and she had NO jumps... and wasn't even a contender... but she wanted to be at the Olympics... and I am sure her fans were thrilled to see her programs.

That's how I feel about Patrick, yet, he is getting better and better as the year goes and who knows what will happen in 2018.... life changes so fast... nobody can tell for sure how things will evolve. Some athletes, Chan knows very well about that, peaked before the games and let the pressure mess up with them.... it happens, sickness happens too.... other people may surface or resurface... some wunderkid may have all quads by then... Who KNOWS? I get edgy when I hear things like "he is done... " Keep in mind that he could also get a gold medal in a team event in 2018... maybe that's also something on his mind, because really, Yuzu cannot get that one... so there are lots of things in motion

I would certainly hope that Patrick thinks more of himself than to aim for a team medal simply because Yuzuru is not likely to win one. Considering Yuzuru's contribution to Team Japan's effort was superior to Patrick's for Canada, I'm not sure the glory lies there. Patrick should work hard and aim to win a gold for himself in 2018. That's a very reasonable goal for him.

 

[qwertyskates]

Just for reference, this is what the judges are supposed to be looking for in scoring the the "Skating Skills" component.

^^^THIS....it is sad that "performance" and "style" have outweighed SS quality in the sport. To me, figure skating is also about the mastery of the art of SS, there aren't many who can execute the list you posted, and dance moves are not SS, "wow" moves like cantilevers are all crowd pleasers but not SS, and unfortunately they are the new "artistry" and get higher PCS now.

 

[blueberryhill]

^^^THIS....it is sad that "performance" and "style" have outweighed SS quality in the sport. To me, figure skating is also about the mastery of the art of SS, there aren't many who can execute the list you posted, and dance moves are not SS, "wow" moves like cantilevers are all crowd pleasers but not SS, and unfortunately they are the new "artistry" and get higher PCS now.

If I were a judge, I would mark DOWN for moves like cantilevers and ESPECIALLY hydroblading. Imo, they do not belong in a competitive program. Before I get accused of bashing any skaters currently using those moves let me explain further.

When I first saw hydroblading it was with Bourne and Kraatz, whom I was a big fan of. When B/K trained briefly under Klimova/Potomorenko they tried to convince B/K to leave out the hydroblading as they viewed it as gimmicky. That's when I realized that those moves were not considered to be SS. In B/K's defense, they at least moved their hydroblading from side to side upping the difficulty but it was still not what I consider to be mastery of the blade.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I would definitely include hydroblading and cantilevers as part of mastery of the blade. These in particular show some of the greatest mastery because of where your weight is balanced and controlling the edge in spite of literally bending over backward or having your body leaned over so close to the ice. And it's particularly difficult to keep the flow/edge going when you rise up out of it.

I get that it can seem gimmicky, but I think it's a wonderful highlight. Hanyu's hydroblading is particularly lovely (although Brown did it first, lol... and Shae/Vic before that).

 

[Bonesfan]

I would definitely include hydroblading and cantilevers as part of mastery of the blade. These in particular show some of the greatest mastery because of where your weight is balanced and controlling the edge in spite of literally bending over backward or having your body leaned over so close to the ice. And it's particularly difficult to keep the flow/edge going when you rise up out of it.

I get that it can seem gimmicky, but I think it's a wonderful highlight. Hanyu's hydroblading is particularly lovely (although Brown did it first, lol... and Shae/Vic before that).

Hanyu started hydroblading in performances at age 13.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I meant Brown in his Riverdance brought it to competition. Unless there was a competition skate where Hanyu also did it?

(And obviously I'm sure skaters other than Brown have done hydroblading in competition -- heck, even my freeskates as a kid would have them... although not quite as well-executed.

 

[AprilS]

Hanyu started hydroblading in performances at age 13.

Can't forget Akiko in her Kill Bill (? can't really remember) SP Actually... I'm pretty sure a lot of skaters have hydrobladed in the past in competitive programs

Maybe you just remember Jason's best cause his went viral in Oly season?

 

[blueberryhill]

I would definitely include hydroblading and cantilevers as part of mastery of the blade. These in particular show some of the greatest mastery because of where your weight is balanced and controlling the edge in spite of literally bending over backward or having your body leaned over so close to the ice. And it's particularly difficult to keep the flow/edge going when you rise up out of it.

I get that it can seem gimmicky, but I think it's a wonderful highlight. Hanyu's hydroblading is particularly lovely (although Brown did it first, lol... and Shae/Vic before that).

I respectfully but strongly disagree.

 

[chuckm]

I Patrick should work hard and aim to win a gold for himself in 2018. That's a very reasonable goal for him.

It is?

He not only has to catch up with tech that's in place now for many of the top men: two quads in the FS and two 3A; but he has to consider the added tech difficulty being planned by Hanyu and others: 4lo, different quads.

Look at Chan's 2013 TEB performances (the last time he put together a clean SP + clean FS) for which he received a total 295.27.

SP: 98.52 4t, 3a, 3z+3t
FS: 196.75 4t+3t, 4t, 3a, 3z+1lo+3s, 3z, 3lo, 3f+2t, 2a

To be competitive with Hanyu he would need TWO quads in his SP to add an additional 10 points. He would need to learn 4s.

In the FS he would need to add 4s and a second 3a in combination. Even this might not be enough to overtake Hanyu if Hanyu adds 4lo to his current repertoire.

 

[Ophelia]

Well...we've had 1 good men's competition so far, so who knows if we'll keep seeing consistent quads or if we'll revert to a splatfest. Just last season people were moaning about how men's was unwatchable. Point being it still remains to be seen how reliable quad-loaded programs are.

2 years is enough to learn another quad, isn't it?

 

[Bonesfan]

I meant Brown in his Riverdance brought it to competition. Unless there was a competition skate where Hanyu also did it?

(And obviously I'm sure skaters other than Brown have done hydroblading in competition -- heck, even my freeskates as a kid would have them... although not quite as well-executed.

Well, I for one, would love to see you as a kid hydroblading! I would imagine as a kid it would be both fun and challenging

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Yes, Chan needs a 4S (in both programs) and two 3As to be competitive with Hanyu at his best, I think you can say the same to any of Hanyu's competitors - that gold in 2018 isn't a reasonable aim, given the skates Hanyu has put out there. Even Javier skating practically his absolute best is still 16 points behind Hanyu in the FS. Uno skating his best is also 19 points back. Jin can match (or surpass) Hanyu's tech score but will be so far back on PCS it won't matter. And if it's unreasonable for Patrick, it's also unreasonable for Ten to win gold in 2018, since he doesn't have a 4S.

Just because one skater/team is slated to win gold (see: V/T in Sochi) doesn't mean you can't try to compete against them. I highly doubt Hanyu will deliver clean SP+FS in every competition between now and 2018, and there's no guarantee he will skate clean in Pyeongchang anyways.

At this point, Patrick needs to work on what he does best and make small improvements. There's no point putting out a jump layout you're not comfortable with in an effort to try to keep up. As we've seen, a clean performance can go a long way. People forget that he's coming back after a year off (and yet still managed to defeat Hanyu at Skate Canada). His priority is to win, but his purpose is trying to show a different side of his skating. Everyone's so quite to hit the panic button... but Chan just delivered another 190+ FS, which shows he's still very competitive, and you never know what's going to happen. If everyone bombs like in Sochi, somebody else might be able to nab the OGM. Ice is slippery, after all.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Well, I for one, would love to see you as a kid hydroblading! I would imagine as a kid it would be both fun and challenging

I do it now as an adult! It's a bit harder getting low enough, but it's a lot of fun to do, and a crowdpleaser on public ice rinks (especially when I wipe out, lol).

 

[Bonesfan]

Well, I for one, would love to see you as a kid hydroblading! I would imagine as a kid it would be both fun and challenging

I do it now as an adult! It's a bit harder getting low enough, but it's a lot of fun to do, and a crowdpleaser on public ice rinks (especially when I wipe out, lol).

Wow - totally awesome! Respect.

 

[Jammers]

IMO, Uno had the best jump quality of the GPF FS (yes, moreso than even Yuzu - who I thought actually had nicer jumps in his NHK FS even if his GOE was a bit higher here).

The flow Uno gets on his landings is just to die for.

Uno's jumps still scare me. His technique among the top 5 skaters is probably the weakest but he seems to be landing them for the most part but i would like to see better technique on the 3axel especially.