Evgenia Medvedeva

[yoloaxel]

Now that NHK is over I bring you: WHAT DOES ZHENYA NEED TO MAKE THE FINAL?

Scenario 1: assuming that Alina will win Rostelecom, if Mako gets a silver there then Zhenya will need at least a silver at IDF with a score higher than Kaori's 213.90

Scenario 2: assuming that Alina will win Rostelecom, if Mako gets bronze or lower, Zhenya will need at least a silver at IDF with a score higher than the other skaters who got silver+bronze (potentially Mako, Sofia and Stanislava), but not necessarily higher than Kaori's 213.90, because both Kaori and Zhenya could qualify in this case, thanks to the lack of a skater with 2 silver medals.

We will know what she needs for sure after Rostelecom, as a lot depends on Mako's placement there.

 

[IceBallerina]

(I wrote this in the Russia ladies thread and I’m pasting it here)

If something crazy doesn’t happen at Cup of Russia, the podium should be:

1. Alina
2. Mako
3. Sofia

At IDF, the podium will likely be

1. Rika
2. Evgenia
3. ?

The Grand Prix final will probably be
1. Alina
2. Rika
3. Satoko
4. Liza
5. Mako
—
6. (Tie-breaker)

Zhenya NEEDS at least a silver in France with a total above 213.91 (I believe that’s the number, correct me if I’m wrong). That’s only if Rostelecom goes according to predictions. That way she can win the tie-breaker and go to the final. Realistically the safest option is to win France, but with Rika there I doubt it.

—
This is where I am begging Zhenya’s team to be smart. She needs all her spins at level four and her step sequences. ONE lutz in the free program. I don’t know if this is a good time to really experiment with layouts either. Most of all, Evgenia needs to go clean. She has to get silver with that 213.91 or else she will not be in the final.

 

[Hello from Brazil]

Guys, I've used Excel to calculate the possible outcomes of the 2 remaining gp events and who would go to the final.
With Alina winning rostelecom and mako 2nd, Evgenia could afford a silver medal and requires a minimum of 213.33 TSS in France to get ahead of Kaori and get the last spot

 

[NoviceFan]

Maybe we have already laid this out previously, but in light of this conversation now, what does 213.91 (the higher one mentioned above, for the sake of argument), look like?

Clean? No calls? Only one lutz? No mistakes?

 

[IceBallerina]

Maybe we have already laid this out previously, but in light of this conversation now, what does 213.91 (the higher one mentioned above, for the sake of argument), look like?

Clean? No calls? Only one lutz? No mistakes?

This is a jumble of two posts I made from a while ago…

Evgenia needs above a 213.90 total if she’s gets silver. A realistic clean SP score with a ! will be around 73 points.

The free will depend on the layout. She’s going to need all her spin levels at 4. They need to only have one lutz as well. If she gets say a 73 in the short, she will need 140.91 in the long program which I think is totally achievable.

Anyways, I think the layout from skate Canada is fine, except for the second lutz. They should keep that layout with a few tweaks

3Lz - 2t - 2lo
2a
3f
2a
—
3f+3t
3s+3t
3lo

At skate Canada with an edge call, unclear edge call, two spins with lost levels, and a < on her loop, she still got 137 points. As I said in my last post if she skates a clean short program (around 73 points) she will only need 141+ points to move ahead of Sakamoto if she gets silver.

Edit: A truly clean free skate with only a ! call should be 145+, maybe nearing 150 if her PCs go up

 

[alpaca]

This is a jumble of two posts I made from a while ago…

Evgenia needs above a 213.90 total if she’s gets silver. A realistic clean SP score with a ! will be around 73 points.

The free will depend on the layout. She’s going to need all her spin levels at 4. They need to only have one lutz as well. If she gets say a 73 in the short, she will need 140.91 in the long program which I think is totally achievable.

Anyways, I think the layout from skate Canada is fine, except for the second lutz. They should keep that layout with a few tweaks

3Lz - 2t - 2lo
2a
3f
2a
—
3f+3t
3s+3t
3lo

At skate Canada with an edge call, unclear edge call, two spins with lost levels, and a < on her loop, she still got 137 points. As I said in my last post if she skates a clean short program (around 73 points) she will only need 141+ points to move ahead of Sakamoto if she gets silver.

Edit: A truly clean free skate with only a ! call should be 145+, maybe nearing 150 if her PCs go up

Thanks for the calculations! If everything goes as predicted and is in her favor (in terms of PCS, GOE and all), I think 73+ and 140-145+ is definitely manageable. France is the one GP comp I would like Orser and his team to go for the "competition specific win" strategy, since they seem to know they can do this. In fact, I think that if she is totally clean with a basically perfect skate (no levels lost or anything either), beating Kihira is definitely not an unrealistic goal either for the gold. I think the biggest advantage she has over the other skaters here is that unlike most of them, she responds extremely strongly to pressure, and usually in the best way (for example even if she didn't win, her Olympic FS was incredible despite the immense pressure). I really hope she does well and end the second-third place streak haha.

 

[NoviceFan]

Thanks for the calculations! If everything goes as predicted and is in her favor (in terms of PCS, GOE and all), I think 73+ and 140-145+ is definitely manageable. France is the one GP comp I would like Orser and his team to go for the "competition specific win" strategy, since they seem to know they can do this. In fact, I think that if she is totally clean with a basically perfect skate (no levels lost or anything either), beating Kihira is definitely not an unrealistic goal either for the gold.I hope she does well and end the second-third place streak haha.

Thanks for this! This is such a nail biter, but I have faith in Evgenia. She is such a pressure player. I am confident she will give it her best shot.

 

[NoviceFan]

This is a jumble of two posts I made from a while ago…

Evgenia needs above a 213.90 total if she’s gets silver. A realistic clean SP score with a ! will be around 73 points.

The free will depend on the layout. She’s going to need all her spin levels at 4. They need to only have one lutz as well. If she gets say a 73 in the short, she will need 140.91 in the long program which I think is totally achievable.

Anyways, I think the layout from skate Canada is fine, except for the second lutz. They should keep that layout with a few tweaks

3Lz - 2t - 2lo
2a
3f
2a
—
3f+3t
3s+3t
3lo

At skate Canada with an edge call, unclear edge call, two spins with lost levels, and a < on her loop, she still got 137 points. As I said in my last post if she skates a clean short program (around 73 points) she will only need 141+ points to move ahead of Sakamoto if she gets silver.

Edit: A truly clean free skate with only a ! call should be 145+, maybe nearing 150 if her PCs go up

Thank you so much for this!

 

[Dmitryfromsiberia]

I would put 3lo in the first part and 3F in the second.

 

[Fluture]

I would put 3lo in the first part and 3F in the second.

Agreed.

Overall, I just don‘t want to think about her chances or layouts because after having Rika seen skate so spectacularly today, I‘m even more nervous for Zhenya than before. I try to calm myself by saying she‘ll be hungry for the win and a hungry/angry Zhenya is the best one competitive wise. The good thing is, she said after SCI that she knows she needs to get a gold at IdF so a silver probably isn‘t even a possibility for her. She‘ll come to France to win and she‘ll do everything she can to make that happen. I hope she can slay and enter the GPF. It would really be important for her.

 

[bubblecherry]

I think Zhenya will start training a 4Sal after this season. Just a gut feeling/prediction

 

[Dmitryfromsiberia]

I think Zhenya will start training a 4Sal after this season. Just a gut feeling/prediction

If she wants to win, she has to do it. I hope on 4S and 3A.

 

[Fluture]

If she wants to win, she has to do it. I hope on 4S and 3A.

3A? I mean, I could maybe see 4S happen but if not even Alena Kostornaya who has a ridiculously good 2A has a 3A yet... And even Rika and Liza have problems with their consistency on their trixel. Zhenya‘s 2A has become better but I see absolutely no room for another revolution. And I don‘t think it‘s her main focus either. If she will land an ultra-c element, it will be 4S, I‘m pretty sure about that.

 

[Wheelz]

Thanks for this! This is such a nail biter, but I have faith in Evgenia. She is such a pressure player. I am confident she will give it her best shot.

I agree with you that Evgenia is, without a doubt, a pressure player. She will go to France ready to compete and give it her best shot. That’s all anyone can ask of her.

I also think her comeback during the free program at SCI should give her a massive confidence boost.

 

[DeeDee18]

3A? I mean, I could maybe see 4S happen but if not even Alena Kostornaya who has a ridiculously good 2A has a 3A yet... And even Rika and Liza have problems with their consistency on their trixel. Zhenya‘s 2A has become better but I see absolutely no room for another revolution. And I don‘t think it‘s her main focus either. If she will land an ultra-c element, it will be 4S, I‘m pretty sure about that.

I think Zhenya is very lucky to train with a top (males) coach cause he teaches quads and literally specializes in axels. So while a 3A is not something she can achieve based on what she has right now, BOrser knows how to raise jump height so I'm just gonna wait and see what happens... But I agree, the 4S will probs come first.

 

[NoviceFan]

I think Zhenya is very lucky to train with a top (males) coach cause he teaches quads and literally specializes in axels. So while a 3A is not something she can achieve based on what she has right now, BOrser knows how to raise jump height so I'm just gonna wait and see what happens... But I agree, the 4S will probs come first.

I agree with this.

Also remember, Evgenia herself put the possibility of a 4S out there. I do not think we will see it this season, but they’re working on building a solid foundation for a long successful career, which for all intents and purposes, would have to include an upgrade on her technical content.

She’s been with her new team since mid-July. It’s just November. The improvements are visible. I am excited for IdF. I am excited for the rest of this season. I am even more excited for next season. I am excited to see the 1.5-year mark. As fans, we have so much to look forward to.

 

[NoviceFan]

I agree with you that Evgenia is, without a doubt, a pressure player. She will go to France ready to compete and give it her best shot. That’s all anyone can ask of her.

I also think her comeback during the free program at SCI should give her a massive confidence boost.

Very well said! Agree with this completely.

 

[melgirl25]

I have to admit that when I saw the scores this morning of the top 3, I was worried (219 and up). Meanwhile, here we are calculating how she can get a 213. My heart sunk a little bit for Zhenya because one, I thought she probably wont make it to the Grand Prix Final and two, if she does her chances of getting on the podium are low.

Anyway, I am over it now and behind her all the way. This season we are seeing anything can happen and after this weekend, there is no clear favorite for the Final or Worlds. It is a tough field and you have to earn your spot on the podium.

I was looking at Program Components . I know I know it's not good to compare scores when they are different competitions but it made me see that she is still competitive in this grand prix and we all know that her PCS is recovering from new choices in music and she and judges adjusting to it. She can make up these points.

1st place NHK - 67.55 in Free Skate

2nd place NHK - 71.50 in Free Skate
2nd place NHK - 35.75 in Short program

1st place Helsinki - 72.11 in Free Skate
1st place Helsinki - 35.77 in Short

Zhenya 1st place Skate Canada: 70.56 in Free Skate
Zhenya 5th place Skate Canada: 34.33 in Short - We all know what happened here so it's remarkable that her score is still this high.

 

[NoviceFan]

I have to admit that when I saw the scores this morning of the top 3, I was worried (219 and up). Meanwhile, here we are calculating how she can get a 213. My heart sunk a little bit for Zhenya because one, I thought she probably wont make it to the Grand Prix Final and two, if she does her chances of getting on the podium are low.

Anyway, I am over it now and behind her all the way. This season we are seeing anything can happen and after this weekend, there is no clear favorite for the Final or Worlds. It is a tough field and you have to earn your spot on the podium.

I was looking at Program Components . I know I know it's not good to compare scores when they are different competitions but it made me see that she is still competitive in this grand prix and we all know that her PCS is recovering from new choices in music and she and judges adjusting to it. She can make up these points.

1st place NHK - 67.55 in Free Skate

2nd place NHK - 71.50 in Free Skate
2nd place NHK - 35.75 in Short program

1st place Helsinki - 72.11 in Free Skate
1st place Helsinki - 35.77 in Short

Zhenya 1st place Skate Canada: 70.56 in Free Skate
Zhenya 5th place Skate Canada: 34.33 in Short - We all know what happened here so it's remarkable that her score is still this high.

Correct me if I am wrong - but I thought the judges in NHK were quite generous with GOEs, at least compared to Skate Canada. I remember thinking that when I looked at the SP scores. I haven’t reviewed the one for the free, but know that Sayoko’s program for example was not perfect and they made several calls, yet her score was up there. I echo what you said, it’s hard to compare scores across the board, because skaters maybe be performing differently from competition to competition, but definitely, the way GOEs have been awarded so far, has been quite inconsistent, at least to a layman like me.

PCS is really where, for the here and the now, Evgenia can edge out the other skaters. Her PCS should go up with a clean performance in IdF.

 

[Vandevska]

To be honest she's getting good PCSs despite the problems she has. I got a bit worried today too (although I really enjoyed the competition). The only thing I'm hoping for is 2 clean programs with no spins issues and UR, and to see her smile. I think it might be hard to win, but not impossible, she's been known to deliver even when everyone falters.