- Joined
- Feb 9, 2009
Well it seems I must change my dance predictions.....
1. Virtue/Moir
2. Davis/White
3. The Italians
1. Virtue/Moir
2. Davis/White
3. The Italians
GPF Podium Prediction
- Thread starter wonderlen3000
- Start date
- Joined
- Mar 25, 2008
It's in order of qualification. So for instance in the men's, Johnny will go first and Nobu will be last. And even more strangely, S/S will be in the first group in the pairs, because they qualified as the fourth team.
I refuse to make a guess as to the podiums, other than to state that it's extremely likely that V/M will win unless they make serious mistakes. Their FD is better than any of the other qualifiers.
ETA: I wrote that B/A would withdraw and didn't know that they'd already done so. Wow, I have psychic powers!
This was a mean reaction to it, but really funny.
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No idea what's gonna happen in Men.
Ladies
1. Kim
2. Ando (may have had more time to practice than Rochette)
3. Rochette (may need a break after the recent comp; could be off the podium if she is really, really tired)
Akiko
Although any Japanese highest podium finisher would lock one spot of the JPN Olympic team, Akiko's chances for getting this spot may be very slim. Judging by the way her PCS was underscored at SC, I think that she needs at least one skater to have a serious meltdown to get on the podium. Plus, she needs to go above Miki. Unless Miki has a serious meltdown, I feel that her chances of making the Olympics team at this comp is very small.
Therefore, as a result, she would have less pressures here. Then I feel that Akiko actually may do well here and place the fourth, assuming that Kim, Miki, and Rochette would skate okay.
In contrast, perhaps she would be under a lot of pressures at Nationals and may not do very well there.
Wagner may do and score well unless she is too excited and happy with GPF.
Ladies
1. Kim
2. Ando (may have had more time to practice than Rochette)
3. Rochette (may need a break after the recent comp; could be off the podium if she is really, really tired)
Akiko
Although any Japanese highest podium finisher would lock one spot of the JPN Olympic team, Akiko's chances for getting this spot may be very slim. Judging by the way her PCS was underscored at SC, I think that she needs at least one skater to have a serious meltdown to get on the podium. Plus, she needs to go above Miki. Unless Miki has a serious meltdown, I feel that her chances of making the Olympics team at this comp is very small.
Therefore, as a result, she would have less pressures here. Then I feel that Akiko actually may do well here and place the fourth, assuming that Kim, Miki, and Rochette would skate okay.
In contrast, perhaps she would be under a lot of pressures at Nationals and may not do very well there.
Wagner may do and score well unless she is too excited and happy with GPF.
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ETA: I wrote that B/A would withdraw and didn't know that they'd already done so. Wow, I have psychic powers!
Me too, I posted earlier (on #18) that I predicted that they'd withdraw. I guess they have done that as their routine, we caught their pattern
.I was just waiting to see what would be her excuse. When they know that they would not win, paticularly to the younger teams like V/M or D/W, they have no reason to go. With this new system, I don't know this tactic will work. V/M and D/W have much more difficult programs. They have higher technical skills, not sure if she can upgrade her skills in short few months.
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2009
My new Ice Dance predictions:
1. Meryl Davis & Charlie White
2. Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir
3. Sinead Kerr & John Kerr
1. Meryl Davis & Charlie White
2. Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir
3. Sinead Kerr & John Kerr
- Joined
- Nov 2, 2005
I decided to just to go with statistics to and see how close I come.
Ladies Season Combine Score Average
1.Yu Na Kim 199.00
2.Joannie Rochette 173.04
3.Miki Ando 167.24
4.Akiko Suzuki 162.19
5.Alena Leonova 160.46
6.Ashely Wagner 159.98
Mens Season Combine Score Average
1.Nobunari Oda 241.05
2.Evan Lysacek 234.94
3.Daisuke Takahashi 222.8
4.Jeremy Abbott 220.72
5.Brian Joubert 220.04
6 Johnny Weir 208.12
Pairs Season Combine Score Average
1.S/Z 201.18
2.P/T 195.49
3.S/S 190.56
4.M/T 189.32
5.K/S 186.59
6.Z/Z 177.44
Ladies Season Combine Score Average
1.Yu Na Kim 199.00
2.Joannie Rochette 173.04
3.Miki Ando 167.24
4.Akiko Suzuki 162.19
5.Alena Leonova 160.46
6.Ashely Wagner 159.98
Mens Season Combine Score Average
1.Nobunari Oda 241.05
2.Evan Lysacek 234.94
3.Daisuke Takahashi 222.8
4.Jeremy Abbott 220.72
5.Brian Joubert 220.04
6 Johnny Weir 208.12
Pairs Season Combine Score Average
1.S/Z 201.18
2.P/T 195.49
3.S/S 190.56
4.M/T 189.32
5.K/S 186.59
6.Z/Z 177.44
Man, I hope that's wrong (Wagner in 6th, that is)
But it could happen ... man, this GPF really shows you what the U.S. women are up against at the Olympics. Still, Suzuki and Leonova are not THAT great. They're not necessarily better than Wagner at her best. Really anything could happen here. ... the only truly shocking thing would be for Kim to be off the podium.
- Joined
- Oct 31, 2006
Men:
1. Oda
2. Abbott
3. Lysacek (WHY, BRIAN, WHY?
Now I'm forced to put Evan on the podium! :banging
Ladies:
1. Kim
2. Rochette
3. Ando
Pairs:
1. Shen/Zhao
2. Savchenko/Szolkowy
3. Pang/Tong
Dance:
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Pechalat/Bourzat
1. Oda
2. Abbott
3. Lysacek (WHY, BRIAN, WHY?
Now I'm forced to put Evan on the podium! :bangingLadies:
1. Kim
2. Rochette
3. Ando
Pairs:
1. Shen/Zhao
2. Savchenko/Szolkowy
3. Pang/Tong
Dance:
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Pechalat/Bourzat
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- Joined
- Jun 3, 2009
Hmmm....
Since there's only six competitors, I'll just predict the entire rankings... And just for the fun of it, I'll predict where they'll end up in each program)
Men
1. Nobunari Oda (3, 1)
2. Evan Lysacek (2, 2)
3. Daisuke Takahashi (1, 3)
4. Brian Joubert (5, 4)
5. Jeremy Abbott (4, 5)
6. Johnny Wier (6, 6)
Hard to say. Takahashi has the highest score ever, but he's not known for his competitive steadiness (and it was 4CC, which people are inclined to dismiss for it's high scoring. Lysacek (of all people) has the highest PCS of the year. What's remarkable if how varied this line-up is but it doesn't even hint at the depth this season. If last season was any indication, Abbott tends to peak quite early, so maybe he's more of a threat? Oda certainly seems the safest bet at this point, and Lysacek is steady enough a competitor to succeed where headcases don't.
Women
1. Yu Na Kim (1, 1)
2. Miki Ando (3, 3)
3. Joannie Rochette (2, 4)
4. Akiko Suzuki (4, 5)
5. Alena Leonova (5, 2)
6. Ashley Wagner (6, 6)
As expectations rise for Leonova, I've gotta wonder just how far she can go this season. She seems to be somewhat immune to the pressure, but then again, there's still time. I've gotta say that her run has been quite something though: Europeans, Worlds Juniors and Seniors, WTT, and now the two GP events. Is she a darkhorse candidate for an Olympic Medal? Maybe not, but she's certainly skating like she is one.
Having said that, it's clearly Kim vs the rest. She showed signs of vulnerability at Skate America, though. It's interesting how quickly it became about Kim the "invulnerable." Her record breaking scores are obviously a reason, but Worlds 09 and TEB 09 are the only times in the past year where she put together two winning programs (two programs that were ranked first). Rochette and Asada beat her in the long at 4CC, Asada beat her at the GPF, and of course, Flatt topped her at Skate America. Anyway, I wonder if part of the reason that meme came to the forefront was simply the lack of a reasonable competitor. Asada was supposed to be that competitor, but problems have seemingly multiplied for her. Rochette acquired steadiness last year, but had two disappointing GP outings and we're still unsure how she'll deal with the pressure. Ando is the only other competitor to have 30 points, but given that she was essentially PCS'd the victory over a steady-if-rough Leonova and was behind Phaneuf in the TES, I think I'm wondering. Ando has only won one program this season! Think about that. All these competitors have had two short and two long program performances, and four of them have only won one. Rochette won two, and that was with the bombingest ladies field this season (compare that to last season: Kim and Rochette with four, Asada with two). Just gives you an idea of how spotty this season is.
Anyway, I'm placing Ando above Rochette simply because I think Rochette will need more time to improve and presumed jetlag.
Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy (2, 1)
2. Shen/Zhao (1, 2)
3. Pang/Tong (3, 3)
4. Murkthova/Trankov (5, 4)
5. Kavaguti/Smirnov (4, 5)
6. Zhang/Zhang (6, 6)
What happened to the Zhangs this season? They've been the steadiest competitors this quadrennial with three silver medals. They've been off the podium exactly once this quadrennial, and that was at the 2007 worlds (and if you recall, that event had a lift disqualified in the short that had them in 10th). And what happened to M/T? How have they gone from a team that had friction issues and general issues with a successful long program done two clean long programs (yes, the second was largely clean) to Love Story? And what of K/S? Are they the Russian number ones?
I'm predicting S/S over S/Z on the strength of their long program. I think S/Z will win the short, S/S the long and overall. I also really wonder if this line-up will stay the way it is.
Dance
1. Virtue and Moir (2, 1)
2. Davis and White (1, 2)
3. Pechelat and Bourzat (3, 3)
4. Kerr and Kerr (4, 4)
5. Cappellini and Lanotte (5, 5)
6. Crone and Poirier (6, 6)
First off, grr to Belbin and Agosto for preventing a North American sweep of the podium (baring three disasters and a barnstorming skate from C/P). But from there....
I think Davis/White will eek out a program win on the OD only to lose the FD and the gold to Virtue/Moir. P/B beat out the Kerrs at TEB and I'm expecting the same here - K/K seem to struggle with the levels moreso than P/B (or anyone in this group, truth be told). C/L and C/P are just happy to have made it.
Since there's only six competitors, I'll just predict the entire rankings... And just for the fun of it, I'll predict where they'll end up in each program)
Men
1. Nobunari Oda (3, 1)
2. Evan Lysacek (2, 2)
3. Daisuke Takahashi (1, 3)
4. Brian Joubert (5, 4)
5. Jeremy Abbott (4, 5)
6. Johnny Wier (6, 6)
Hard to say. Takahashi has the highest score ever, but he's not known for his competitive steadiness (and it was 4CC, which people are inclined to dismiss for it's high scoring. Lysacek (of all people) has the highest PCS of the year. What's remarkable if how varied this line-up is but it doesn't even hint at the depth this season. If last season was any indication, Abbott tends to peak quite early, so maybe he's more of a threat? Oda certainly seems the safest bet at this point, and Lysacek is steady enough a competitor to succeed where headcases don't.
Women
1. Yu Na Kim (1, 1)
2. Miki Ando (3, 3)
3. Joannie Rochette (2, 4)
4. Akiko Suzuki (4, 5)
5. Alena Leonova (5, 2)
6. Ashley Wagner (6, 6)
As expectations rise for Leonova, I've gotta wonder just how far she can go this season. She seems to be somewhat immune to the pressure, but then again, there's still time. I've gotta say that her run has been quite something though: Europeans, Worlds Juniors and Seniors, WTT, and now the two GP events. Is she a darkhorse candidate for an Olympic Medal? Maybe not, but she's certainly skating like she is one.
Having said that, it's clearly Kim vs the rest. She showed signs of vulnerability at Skate America, though. It's interesting how quickly it became about Kim the "invulnerable." Her record breaking scores are obviously a reason, but Worlds 09 and TEB 09 are the only times in the past year where she put together two winning programs (two programs that were ranked first). Rochette and Asada beat her in the long at 4CC, Asada beat her at the GPF, and of course, Flatt topped her at Skate America. Anyway, I wonder if part of the reason that meme came to the forefront was simply the lack of a reasonable competitor. Asada was supposed to be that competitor, but problems have seemingly multiplied for her. Rochette acquired steadiness last year, but had two disappointing GP outings and we're still unsure how she'll deal with the pressure. Ando is the only other competitor to have 30 points, but given that she was essentially PCS'd the victory over a steady-if-rough Leonova and was behind Phaneuf in the TES, I think I'm wondering. Ando has only won one program this season! Think about that. All these competitors have had two short and two long program performances, and four of them have only won one. Rochette won two, and that was with the bombingest ladies field this season (compare that to last season: Kim and Rochette with four, Asada with two). Just gives you an idea of how spotty this season is.
Anyway, I'm placing Ando above Rochette simply because I think Rochette will need more time to improve and presumed jetlag.
Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy (2, 1)
2. Shen/Zhao (1, 2)
3. Pang/Tong (3, 3)
4. Murkthova/Trankov (5, 4)
5. Kavaguti/Smirnov (4, 5)
6. Zhang/Zhang (6, 6)
What happened to the Zhangs this season? They've been the steadiest competitors this quadrennial with three silver medals. They've been off the podium exactly once this quadrennial, and that was at the 2007 worlds (and if you recall, that event had a lift disqualified in the short that had them in 10th). And what happened to M/T? How have they gone from a team that had friction issues and general issues with a successful long program done two clean long programs (yes, the second was largely clean) to Love Story? And what of K/S? Are they the Russian number ones?
I'm predicting S/S over S/Z on the strength of their long program. I think S/Z will win the short, S/S the long and overall. I also really wonder if this line-up will stay the way it is.
Dance
1. Virtue and Moir (2, 1)
2. Davis and White (1, 2)
3. Pechelat and Bourzat (3, 3)
4. Kerr and Kerr (4, 4)
5. Cappellini and Lanotte (5, 5)
6. Crone and Poirier (6, 6)
First off, grr to Belbin and Agosto for preventing a North American sweep of the podium (baring three disasters and a barnstorming skate from C/P). But from there....
I think Davis/White will eek out a program win on the OD only to lose the FD and the gold to Virtue/Moir. P/B beat out the Kerrs at TEB and I'm expecting the same here - K/K seem to struggle with the levels moreso than P/B (or anyone in this group, truth be told). C/L and C/P are just happy to have made it.
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- Joined
- May 21, 2009
Men
1. Nobunari Oda
2. Daisuke Takahashi
3. Evan Lysacek
Women
1. Yu Na Kim (no doubt)
2. Joannie Rochette
3. Miki Ando
Pairs
1. Shen/Zhao
2. Pang/Tong
3. Murkthova/Trankov
4. Savchenko/Szolkowy ( they might win SP,,,but not LP unless their stabilty improves)
Dance
1. Davis and White
2. Virtue and Moir
3. Pechelat and Bourzat
1. Nobunari Oda
2. Daisuke Takahashi
3. Evan Lysacek
Women
1. Yu Na Kim (no doubt)
2. Joannie Rochette
3. Miki Ando
Pairs
1. Shen/Zhao
2. Pang/Tong
3. Murkthova/Trankov
4. Savchenko/Szolkowy ( they might win SP,,,but not LP unless their stabilty improves)
Dance
1. Davis and White
2. Virtue and Moir
3. Pechelat and Bourzat
Great Analysis... Looked very possible. but i think we should wait for the final line up and decide the ranking, especially since so many athletes are withdrawing due to injury
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- Joined
- Oct 13, 2009
I think that would be very nice to see.. But I'm not counting on it..
On the other hand, with respect to Brian's news, I'm readjusting my men podium. For the first time, I feel like Tomas is not going to bomb, so I'm thinking he may come in third behind Oda and Lysacek or maybe even second. Will be interesting to see if he will bomb or not..
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2009
Especially after Joubert withdrew! I'll change my predictions later.
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2009
With Joubert out, Verner in, I'm reminded that none of these skaters are really "long program" skaters. Verner has questionable stamina issues, Abbott, Takahashi and Wier are prone to mental lapses, especially when the pressure's on. Oda and Lysacek are the closest to being described as "long program" skaters. Indeed, Lysacek's performance at Worlds 06 and 09 as well as Olympics 06 certainly affirm that contention, and Oda has the long program of the season over on the guy's side. So, I think Oda and Lysacek will still go 1-2, on the basis of Oda's long and Lysacek's consistency.
Verner has the quad in his short, and we know he can score well even without the big levels, and assuming he gets those levels he'll definitely be in the hunt after the short. But it's the long program that I'm curious about. Worlds 08, Euros 09 and even Worlds 09 are examples him being unable to convert success in the short to the long.
So what of Takahashi and Abbott? I think these two guys share the short program of the season award, so I'm particularly glad that they made it.
Wier's still in sixth, I'm afraid.
1. Nobunari Oda (4, 1)
2. Evan Lysacek (3, 2)
3. Tomas Verner (1, 4)
4. Daisuke Takahashi (5, 3)
5. Jeremy Abbott (2, 5)
6. Johnny Wier (6, 6)
Men
1. Jeremy Abbott
2. Nobunari Oda
3. Evan Lysacek
4. Daisuke Takahashi
5. Tomas Verner
6. Johnny Weir
Ladies
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Joannie Rochette
3. Miki Ando
4. Alena Leonova
5. Ashley Wagner
6. Akiko Suzuki
Dance
1. Virtue/Moir
2. Davis/White
3. Pechelat/Bourzat
4. Cappellini/Lanotte
5. Kerr/Kerr
6. Crone/Poirier
Pairs
1. Shen/Zhao
2. Savchenko/Szolkowy
3. Pang/Tong
4. Murkthova/Trankov
5. Kavaguti/Smirnov
6. Zhang/Zhang
1. Jeremy Abbott
2. Nobunari Oda
3. Evan Lysacek
4. Daisuke Takahashi
5. Tomas Verner
6. Johnny Weir
Ladies
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Joannie Rochette
3. Miki Ando
4. Alena Leonova
5. Ashley Wagner
6. Akiko Suzuki
Dance
1. Virtue/Moir
2. Davis/White
3. Pechelat/Bourzat
4. Cappellini/Lanotte
5. Kerr/Kerr
6. Crone/Poirier
Pairs
1. Shen/Zhao
2. Savchenko/Szolkowy
3. Pang/Tong
4. Murkthova/Trankov
5. Kavaguti/Smirnov
6. Zhang/Zhang
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