Have the Gang of Four Hit Their Peak?

[Vash01]

Looking at the 4 names, my immediate thought is-

Sasha has definitely not hit the peak. Her best days are ahead of her. We have not yet seen her win a major championship beyond the GPF. She was a beautiful skater with breathtaking flexibility from the day she arrived on the scene. She has made some improvements in her jumps and other aspects of skating, but IMO she is still developing as a competitor. Given enough time she will get there.

Shizuka was great in Dortmund and it seemed like she had just found herself. I was expecting a great performance from her every time this year, and probably everyone else was too. That puts a lot of pressure on a skater. I expect her to be close to the Dortmund level by world championship time. I think we will see a Shizuka who will have more emotion and projection in her skating in the future (not necessarily in Moscow). So she too has room to improve.

I am not so sure about Michelle and Irina. Out of these two, Michelle has room for a 3-3 jump combination, more interesting positions (and changes in position) on her spins, and she needs to go back to a Lori Nichol type choreography. So she too has a little room to improve, and she has not hit the peak yet. If she does not add a 3-3 jump combination and does not add an innovative position to her spin, I would have to say she is not going to grow as a skater at this point. We will find out if that is the case.

Irina is the one I feel does not have much room to grow at this point. Her artistry is still a question mark for many. However, she is not someone with the kind of body that produces lines and extensions. She will always be the powerhouse jumper and vivacious skater who uplifts the audience. I see that as artistry, in a way. She is expressing her true self, as Midori did a decade ago. The only place where I can see an improvement in her is the spiral. The Biellman spiral is bringing her COP points but artistically that position is too repetitive in the program. It is a difficult position and she does it well but I would like to see her work on a different position that is uniquely hers. She cannot compete with Michelle or Sasha on a regular spiral position, so it has to be a different one. Using the Biellman position this year was a brilliant idea on her part, but she definitely needs more variety. Other than that, she seems to be at her peak.

Any of these 4 skaters is a legitimate contender for the world championship in 2005 and OGM in 2006. However, if history is any indication, the OGM has often gone to the skater that was not expected to win or at least was not a heavy favorite. The last time a favorite won was in 1988 (Katarina Witt). So being a favorite will probably work against Irina. Being an underdog will work for Michelle. Depending on how Shizuka does in Moscow, she will be either the favorite or an underdog in 2006. In the latter case her chances are better. I would not make any predictions about Sasha, but she may come up with that magical performance at the right time. It happened with Paul Wylie and it could happen with Sasha.

Of course someone other than these 4 may have a better chance of winning the OGM in 2006- that would be more consistent with what happened in the last 2 Olympics. It is hard to guess who that skater could be- Ando, Phaneuf, Kostner, Rochette, and perhaps a Japanese skater yet to be named, come to mind.

Vash

 

[Kuchana]

The one thing that all these skaters have on their side - especially, Michelle and Irina - is experience. In figure skating and all things for that matter - experience is "the greatest teacher." There may be some new bright talent on the horizon, and someone may come from out of nowhere and wow us - like Sarah did in the Olympics, but that is the name of the game - "Expect the unexpected." Still the seasoned vets don't give up so easily and they can handle the pressure because of their experience. They may each surprise us yet!!!

I echoe your sentiments!! I can't wait to see how Michelle and Irina skate. Let the old timers show their stuff

Shizuka Arakawa seems to be experiencing what Lu Chen did in 1996, Michelle in 1997 and Sarah Hughes in 2003 -- a struggle the year after winning the big one. While equipment is certainly partly to blame, I suspect there is more to it than that. This is the first season Shizuka has skated with a big, red bullseye on her back and the Japanese media tailing her like a pack of unwanted dogs. She seems underconfident and I think this year will be a struggle for her. But by 2006, she very well may have recovered and interesting things could happen in Turin.

For some reason, visions of Albertville with Midori Ito came in my mind as I was reading the above. I felt so sad for Midori I certainly don't want to see Shizuka end up like that. At least for Shizuka it's not the Olympics so hopefully she'll be able to adjust to the pressure in order to prepare for the big one.

I'm not so sure how Arakawa will do for the rest of the season and next year if she competes. I'm quoting a poster by the login of MINAM from FSU at this thread http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=19846

This poster also gave a link to some Japanese interviews Arakawa gave for those who speak Japanese.

http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=2...0000517-yom-spo


It would explain a lot of her season so far.

Which brings up the question.....since she went beyond her expectations in winning the World title, does this mean she's going to Turino and is it more out of the Japanese federation pushing her or her own desire?

 

[swannanoa54]

Excellent topic, Joesitz!

For me, I only think, at this point in time, that Irina and Michelle are contenders for anything other than the "under 20" skaters.

Shizuka just seems to be struggling. The fire in her eyes is gone. She just doesn't look, to me, like she did at Dortmund. I love her skating, but not when she doesn't seem to love it herself.

Sasha: Well, I was all prepared for Sasha to win Nationals last time. Then I was all prepared for her to win Worlds. Then I was all prepared to grimace because she just can't keep her concentration together. And I don't think she's leaving Robin, but if she does, I hope she will realize that the problem is in her and not her coaches. Coaches can only do so much. She has to skate. And if she were to go back to John Nicks, I believe that would be the biggest mistake she has made in her skating career.

 

[attyfan]

I think that the biggest question for two members of the "gang of four" is health. Irina is skating well, and, I believe her spirit will carry her to Moscow, but I don't know how much beyond that she will be able to go. Sasha's back is also problematic, and, there are times that I believe her inability to skate clean has less to do with her mind than with her extreme flexibility (I read that some doctors studying ballerinas have discovered that the more flexible ballet dancers are more prone to certain joint problems than are dancers who are less flexible).
A lot of people are writing off Michelle Kwan -- which is a good sign that she will do well (she always is more likely to lose as the favorite).

 

[chuckm]

Shizuka's been competing for more years than many of her competitors. She was Japanese Champion in 1998 and 1999, and represented Japan at the 1998 Olympics (she finished a respectable 13th). She won the World Championship, and perhaps she feels she's paid her dues to the Japanese Federation. It doesn't seem as if her heart is in her skating this year. Maybe she's just burnt out and tired of the grind.

 

[russell30]

I have to say that Michelle and Irina have achieved a lot in their lifetime and are still supreme skaters. Irina is having a fantastic year guaranteed the European title, I can't see anyone stopping her, but watch out for Susanna Poykio and Carolina Kostner.

As for Worlds it would be interesting with about 10 contenders for the title, but Michelle and Shizuka will be challenging along with Irina, they seem to be the top three so far.

Sasha I believe might struggle at the US Nationals, I think Michelle, Angela and Kimmie are going to be the top three????

As for Torino 06, It will not be just Irina, Michelle, Sasha and Shizuka, Watch out for Kimmie Meisner, Carolina Kostner, Miki Ando and Mai Asada. Ive got a feeling there is going to be a surprise!!!

 

[Crizzy]

Shizuka's been competing for more years than many of her competitors.

Chuckm, I'm sorry but I don't get this statement. Are you saying that Shizuka has been competing for "more" years than Irina and Michelle? Ummm, Irina and Michelle has been in the scene since what 93/94, nonstop. Shizuka also took some years off to go to school and was out of the loophole for a while. But if you're talking about other younger skaters like Ando, Phanuef, Rochette, Onda, then yes I agree.

 

[chuckm]

Actually, Shizuka has been competing internationally for Japan since 1993. She won Triglav in 1993, was 2nd at 1994 Nebelhorn and won 1995 Nebelhorn. She was Japanese Junior Champion three years in a row, 1996-1998, before winning the Japanese Senior Championship in 1998 and 1999. She went to Worlds and Olympics in1998 and has participated in every GP series since the 1997-1998 season. Even when in college, she competed at Japanese Senior Nationals every year, finishing 5th in 2000, 2nd in 2001 and 2002, and 3rd in 2003 and 2004.

Shizuka didn't represent Japan at Worlds in 2001 because Japan had only one slot at that time. 2001 Japanese Champion Fumie Suguri finished 7th at 2001 Worlds and earned two spots for 2002 Worlds. Japan sent Fumie, Yoshie Onda and Shizuka to 2002 4CC, but Fumie and Yoshie finished higher, so they went to 2002 Worlds, where they finished 3rd and 5th, earning 3 slots for 2003. Arakawa went to 2003 Worlds and finished 8th, then won 2004 Worlds.

So Shizuka, who is nearly 3 years younger than Irina and 1.5 years younger than Michelle, has been competing internationally just as long as they have.

 

[euterpe]

Wow. Shizuka was 11 when she won Triglav and 12 when she won silver at her first Nebelhorn. That was way before the age-eligibility rules changed.

She HAS been around a long time! She turns 23 at the end of this month, she's been competing for nearly 12 years, and she 's been doing the GP every year for 8 solid years. I can understand it if her enthusiasm for skating is beginning to wane.

Maybe that's why Kwan doesn't want to do the GP any more---after a while, all the travel and the back-to-back competitions become a burden that does negatively affect your skating.

 

[lavender]

Yeah I can see how it can get old. It's even worst being on top for so long which Michelle has done.

Maybe Sasha would be happier having more say so like she did with Nicks. I don't know if moving back to Nicks or staying with Robin will change her fate but I think she would happier back in California.

 

[R.D.]

Maybe Sasha would be happier having more say so like she did with Nicks. I don't know if moving back to Nicks or staying with Robin will change her fate but I think she would happier back in California.

Wasn't Robin supposed to be a "temporary fix" for the sudden SC/TT split? Wouldn't surprise me if she does some more "coach hopping".

 

[wvgal57]

Irina says she sees a lot she can still do with COP and she's working towards it. The girls doing GP havent' had a break since October so I've read various skaters say that you can't really train between GP series and the finals. So we'll see.

Irina's Bielman spiral is a beaut and she'll be keeping it :agree: It's extremely difficult to balance yourself like that with no arms at your side and then do that change of edge. Why do you think she's getting Level 3 on this element. She'll not be changing it anytime soon! Irina's had a lot of different spiral sequences but I like this one best of all, even though I loved her gorgeous catchfoot backwards spiral. We may even see one of these as a mitf.

Irina has uncorked a couple 3/3's already this season in competition so I'm not really worried about those now. She's also put out some new spins and a fews moves in her new exhibition that I think she is test driving.

Irina will never be a lyrical skater in the sense of a Sasha Cohen and she doesn't want to be. She is comfortable in her own skin and she'll never be molded into someone else.

The judges have always rewarded Irina's excellent skills but COP actually highlites just how good she really is. Whether she wins in Moscow is another story - the media is gonna be flat out awful and I hope Irina is able to handle the pressure. She's a veteran at this but she still admits to getting very nervous.

She's been on top for so long though, I do wonder how she does it.

 

[R.D.]

A lot of people are writing off Michelle Kwan -- which is a good sign that she will do well (she always is more likely to lose as the favorite).

Who's writing her off? I think she's the overwhelming favorite for the Nationals and the only American contender for a podium spot at worlds.

Interesting statements about Arakawa...I never knew she has been around so long. And, with all the issues she's having, I can't help but wonder whether all four (maybe with the exception of Irina who seems reinvigorated) are going through some sort of "crisis" in deciding whether to continue or not. Kwan, of course, with her "one step at a time" stuff and skate problems and Cohen with her issues. However, better it happen now than next season.

If MK goes to Turin you bet that she will be a favorite. The American media certainly will crown her as the favorite, the big question will be "will third time be the charm for Kwan?" Cohen will have a lot of pressure on her, too. I don't see either of them winning. Of course, if a skater were to struggle through most of the season, no-one will be expecting her to win or break through.

 

[Kuchana]

Who's writing her off? I think she's the overwhelming favorite for the Nationals and the only American contender for a podium spot at worlds.

If MK goes to Turin you bet that she will be a favorite. The American media certainly will crown her as the favorite, the big question will be "will third time be the charm for Kwan?" Cohen will have a lot of pressure on her, too. I don't see either of them winning. Of course, if a skater were to struggle through most of the season, no-one will be expecting her to win or break through.

It seems to me that a lot of people have written off Michelle this year for Worlds but then what's new? Being that she hasn't competed in the GP series nor been judged under the COP along with people saying that Irina is the definite one to watch out for.

I hope Michelle won't be touted as a favorite in Turin. That's the last thing she needs.

 

[Fossi]

I stated last year, right after Worlds, that I thought Sasha Cohen came the closet she will ever get to a World title, and she blew it. I don't know if she will ever be able to get that close again. I think she peaked last season and it has been down hill ever since. She'll be luck to make the Worlds podium, but I bet the judges will hold her up again. Of all the current ladies skaters, I think she has been held up the most.
Kwan? I don't know about her. She needs to do something different. She almost won the LP at Worlds last year, so I can't say she's not a contendor. She beat everyone in the LP except Shizuka and even Shiz needed two amazing 3/3's to top Kwan. I don't know if she'll be on the Worlds podium this year though.
Irina? I see nothing new from her. She is doing too many beillmann's and not enough in betweens. She has a lot of energy, but is still very "Irina." I think it might be time for her to reinvent herself for Turino. I don't think any of the skaters will beat her this year though.
Shizuka? She may have peaked at Worlds last year. She peaked at the right time, but I question if she can come back to form?

 

[mzheng]

I think she peaked last season and it has been down hill ever since.

I've indirectely heard the pereson in the known saying the same thing after watching her in person at Campbell.

 

[Vash01]

I Irina? I see nothing new from her. She is doing too many beillmann's and not enough in betweens. She has a lot of energy, but is still very "Irina." I think it might be time for her to reinvent herself for Turino. I don't think any of the skaters will beat her this year though.

You see nothing new from her? have you noticed her spiral is quite different this year?

Not enough in betweens? What are you watching?She has steps before most of her jumps. TYour statement "but is still She is very Irina" sounds like a flaw. Actually it is a great compliment to a skater to be herself. She does not try to copy someone else. It is a strength, not a weakness.

Vash

 

[mzheng]

TYour statement "but is still She is very Irina" sounds like a flaw. Actually it is a great compliment to a skater to be herself. She does not try to copy someone else. It is a strength, not a weakness.

Vash

I agree with this one. I thought that Onda just should be like herself not to try to potrait ballenina, she would be a much enjoyable skater.

 

[clairecloutier]

It's my personal feeling that Sasha's career is now on a downward spiral. Personally, I think it all began last year when she left TT. Sasha was a gifted, talented skater before she went to TT, but it was Tarasova who gave her the final polish needed to make her a World championship contender--better programs, more confidence, more attitude. Now, it's like a house of cards falling. She's left TT, left Robin, is injured, hasn't been training full-time, and is now back with the same coach she had at the junior level. Only diehard Sasha fans can possibly think she's moving in the right direction. I agree with Fossi that last year was her best chance to win Worlds. It's going to be an uphill struggle from here to Torino, and to me, her chances don't look good. If she does win any championships from here on in, I agree with a previous poster that it will be a once-in-a-lifetime kind of thing. Of course, there is always that possibility that the once-in-a-lifetime performance *could* happen in Torino.

I expect to see Shizuka bounce back. It's not easy being a new world champion and suddenly anointed favorite, especially if she had been planning to retire this year. But she is too good a skater not to come back. She was so magnificent last year at Worlds and the final pro-am. I have to think she'll be back.

Irina is still Irina. She's reworked her programs a bit for COP, but is fundamentally unchanged. However, she is skating better than ever this year. I agree with several others that her form, line, and presentation are not as classic and perfect as many of the other ladies. But she probably makes up for it with her speed and the difficulty of her jumps and spins. To me, Irina will never be one of the greats of the sport, but she is very good at what she does. I think she is definitely the favorite at Worlds this year and could be one of the contenders in Torino.

Michelle to me is the biggest question mark. After a brilliant Nationals last year, she has not really skated outstandingly at any event since then. And the fact is that her bronze medal at Worlds was her lowest Worlds placement since 1996. There is no doubt in my mind that Michelle is fully capable of winning Worlds this year and even the Olympics--if she wants it enough. But that, to me, is the major question. Is her motivation there, or is it not? I don't think any of us really know at this point (maybe even she doesn't). If the motivation is there, then she could win Worlds or Olympics. But I agree with other posters that her best chance at winning the OGM will be if she actually loses Worlds this year. Michelle has come into 2 Olympics now as the favorite and has seized up both times and skated conservatively, ultimately costing her the OGM. She may skate more freely and aggressively if she isn't the favorite in Torino. Regardless, I wish her the best.

 

[attyfan]

IMHO, how Kwan skates at Worlds this year will not be relevant in determining if she will be the favorite in Turino; her status will be determined at Nats in '06. After all, Kwan lost Worlds in '97; she became the overwhelming favorite to win Nagano after her classic skate at '98 Nats. Kwan was regarded as having "given away the OGM' when she split from Frank Carroll; some people thought she split just to avoid being the favorite. She had a great skate at Nats, though, whereas Irina skated badly at Euros, so Kwan went to SLC as the overwhelming favorite.

I also believe that it really doesn't matter if Kwan wins in Moscow. Her main jobs will be (a) prove to the world that she is not afraid of the CoP, which she will do simply by showing up and competing; and (b) do her bit to secure the maximum number of spotss for U.S ladies in Turino that can be expected under the circumstances, which she has done successfully since 1994. After doing that, she can, if she likes, make another run at the Olys. If she doesn't like the CoP, she will still be able to retire honorably because she will be handing on the state of the US ladies program to the up-and-comers in much, much better shape than what she received (the post Tonya/Nancy highly publicized mess).