How does success at Jr Worlds translate to senior medals?

[skateluvr]

Do Jr Medals likely mean you have a greater chance of medaling in senior events. Wee most World medalists champions in in worlds? History of the different disciplines appreciated.

 

[dorispulaski]

Since the average career in juniors is shorter than the average career in seniors, obviously there are more junior world medallists around than there are senior medals to go round.

In dance (which I know best), lets look at the last 10 years:

Teams or team members who eventually medalled at Senior worlds in bold

2001 1st Romaniuta & Barantsev 2nd Belbin & Agosto 3rd Khaliavina & Shabalin
2002 1st Belbin & Agosto 2nd Khaliavina and Shabalin 3rd Romanovskaya & Grachev
2003 1st Domnina and Shabalin 2nd Hoffman & Elek 3rd Romanovskaya & Grachev
2004 1st Romanovskaya & Grachev 2nd Hoffman & Elek 3rd Matthews & Zavozin
2005 1st Matthews & Zavozin 2nd Virtue & Moir 3rd Gorshkova & Tkachenko
2006 1st Virtue & Moir 2nd Mikhailova & Sergeev 3rd Davis & White 4th Capellini & Lanotte
2007 1st Bobrova & Soloviev 2nd Grunberg & Rand 3rd Weaver & Poje
2008 1st Samuelson & Bates 2nd Crone & Poirier 3rd Gorshkova & Butikov
2009 1st Chock & Zuerlein 2nd Shibutani & Shibutani 3rd Riazanova & Guerreiro
2010 1st Ilinykh & Katsalapov 2nd Paul & Islam 3rd Monko & Khaliavin 4th Shibutani & Shibutani
2011 1st Monko & Khaliavin 2nd Pushkash & Guerreiro 3rd Lichtman & Copley
2012 1st Sinitsina & Zhiganshin 2nd Stepanova & Bukin 3rd Aldridge & Eaton

Sometimes couples break up because one grows too tall for the other:
Lichtman & Copley
Samuelson & Bates
Hoffman & Elek
Sometimes they are just not compatible in some unknown way
Crone & Poirier

Sometimes one or the other suffers a career ending injury
Grunberg & Rand

Or has a medical condition (permanent)
Matthews & Zavozin

Or medical condition (temporary)
Monko & Khaliavin

Or just breaks up
Romaniuta & Barantsev (he ended up skating with Jennifer Wester)
Khaliavina & Shabalin (he ended up winning with his new partner Domnina)
Riazanova & Guerreiro (She is skating with Tkachenko who was Gorshkova's partner, He is skating with Pushkash, new in seniors this year)

Sometimes it just doesn't work in seniors, but they keep trying
Gorshkova & Butikov

And sometimes, I just don't know where they disappeared to
Mikhailova & Sergeev (never finished higher than 6th at Russian championships)
Romanovskaya & Grachev (finished 4th at Russian championships 2 years running & one year 23rd at Worlds)

Looked at the other way, from seniors:
1994 to 1997 Grishuk & Platov (She won junior worlds with a different partner, he won jr worlds 3 times with a different partner)
1998 & 1999 Krylova & Ovsiannakov (He won bronze at jr worlds with a different partner)
2000 Anissina & Peizerat (won Jr Worlds twice with Averbukh)
2001 Fusar-Poli & Margaglio (she was 10th at Jr Worlds with a different partner, he was 16th with a different partner)
2002 Lobacheva & Averbukh (he won Jr worlds twice with Anissina)
2003 Bourne & Kraatz (did not compete at Jr Worlds)
2004, 2005 Navka & Kostamarov (He won jr worlds with a different partner)
2006 Denkova & Staviyski (did not compete at JR Worlds)
2007 Denkova & Staviyski (Did not compete at Jr Worlds)
2008 Delobel & Schoenfelder (best Jr Worlds finish 2nd)
2009 Domnina & Shabalin (best junior worlds finish 1st)
2010 Virtue & Moir (best junior worlds finish 1st)
2011 Davis & White (best Jr worlds finish 3rd)

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Number of junior medalists to medal at Worlds/Olympics

Men: 21
Ladies: 20
Pairs: 5 and 7 halves (Petrova, Sikharulidze, Eisler, Trankov, Steuer, Kawaguchi, Savchenko all had junior success with one/two partners, and senior success with another)
Dance: 6 and ten halves (Grishuk, Platov, Ovsiannikov, Peizarat, Anissina, Averbukh, Shabalin, Ponomarenko, Dubreuil, Faiella)