How long will Hanyu's records last?

[aromaticchicken]

The more risk a skater takes, the more likely he will get injured, everything else equal.
The more a skater practices, the more likely he will get injured, everything else equal.
The more a skater practices, the more likely he will deliver under pressure, everything else equal, vice versa.

You're forgetting the rest of the equation..... after those three sentences...

The more a skater gets injured, the less he will practice, everything else equal.
The more a skater gets injured, the less risk that he will take, everything else equal.

 

[MaxSwagg]

^True true. His SP at Worlds actually was his best, and his SP at GPF was cleaner than NHK. But his NHK LP as you said was his absolute best work to date, even if it wasn't his highest scoring.

I agree with this ranking as well.

 

[gsyzf]

You're forgetting the rest of the equation..... after those three sentences...

The more a skater gets injured, the less he will practice, everything else equal.
The more a skater gets injured, the less risk that he will take, everything else equal.

It depends on the risk aversion of the skater. The skater will only practice less temporarily after the injury, unless the injury is career ending.

If the skater is risk averse, then the more a skater gets injured, the less he will practice, everything else equal.
The more a skater gets injured, the less risk that he will take, everything else equal.

But if the skater is risk loving and has a strong desire to win, then he will take risk, if not more risk, after his recovery, despite the injury he had in the past, as long as the risk is necessary for winning.

Did you ever see Hanyu take less risk because of injury or pain? (He did not even lower his tech after the COC collision. He still skated a layout equally as difficult as the layout he had in the olympic season.) He is going for much more risky layout this season, even after the injury he had last season. All of Yagudin, Plushenko, Lycasek and Hanyu are the same. They don't take less risk because of pain or injury. They take as much risk is needed in order to win. They only take less risk if the rules and the competitiveness of the field don't adequately compensate the risk and they can win with less risk.

 

[MaxSwagg]

It depends on the risk aversion of the skater. The skater will only practice less temporarily after the injury, unless the injury is career ending.

If the skater is risk averse, then the more a skater gets injured, the less he will practice, everything else equal.
The more a skater gets injured, the less risk that he will take, everything else equal.

But if the skater is risk loving and has a strong desire to win, then he will take risk, if not more risk, after his recovery, despite the injury he had in the past, as long as the risk is necessary for winning.

Did you ever see Hanyu take less risk because of injury or pain? (He did not even lower his tech after the COC collision. He still skated a layout equally as difficult as the layout he had in the olympic season.) He is going for much more risky layout this season, even after the injury he had las tseason. All of Yagudin, Plushenko, Lycasek and Hanyu are the same. They don't take less risk because of pain or injury. They take as much risk is needed in order to win. They only take less risk if the rules and the competitiveness of the field don't adequately compensate the risk and they can win with less risk.

Lysacek took risks?! No, no, no, no. Lol

 

[gsyzf]

Lysacek took risks?! No, no, no, no. Lol

He did take risk when he was the underdog. The men's field from 2006 to 2010 was very weak. The rules at that time allowed him to win without taking much risk. He didn't take less risk because he got injured but because he could win with a less risky layout. He didn't take more risk because he didn't need to. If he needed take more risk in order to win, he would do that just like he did before 2008-2009. Yagudin and Plushenko also stopped taking more risk than necessary when the field was weak. Hanyu doesn't have that option to take less risk because the men's field is much more competitive now, and judges don't favor him and give his rivals equally high or higher score than him.

 

[OS]

The next winter olympic games hold in Russia by a 15 years Russian who has no artistry but kills the audience with black swan + back to back quads consecutively in the last 30% of the free program miki ando style.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

That sounds fun !!!

 

[MaxSwagg]

It will take 4 quads and 2 3A to break FP and total records. I don't think even Hanyu can break the FS/Total records with 3 quads/2 3A...

 

[Crossover]

Highly likely to be broken this season by either Hanyu or Javi even with 3 quads and 2 3As in FS, or who knows...perhaps by Shoma with a full-rotated 4F and other quads by accidents or Nathan Chen with 3 or 4 different quads.

 

[Lysambre]

Highly likely to be broken this season by either Hanyu or Javi even with 3 quads and 2 3As in FS, or who knows...perhaps by Shoma with a full-rotated 4F and other quads by accidents or Nathan Chen with 3 or 4 different quads.

They'd need not only the multiple quads though, because just that isn't quite enough to break the big numbers. They'd need good GOE and great PCS too.

 

[Crossover]

They'd need not only the multiple quads though, because just that isn't quite enough to break the big numbers. They'd need good GOE and great PCS too.

That's why I haven't even included Boyang as a possible skater to break the WR (although I adore him), but the rest are possible according to the tendency to give their PCS and GOEs. The score is not unbreakable.

 

[mcq]

That's why I haven't even included Boyang as a possible skater to break the WR (although I adore him), but the rest are possible according to the tendency to give their PCS and GOEs. The score is not unbreakable.

I doubt they will give Shoma/Nathan PCS as high as 49 in SP and 98.5 in FS so fast, though. They did not even go that crazy on Medvedeva's PCS, the junior to senior wunderkind, yet. Chan hasn't even reach 98.5 in PCS yet, only Hanyu and Javi did, and I think their status as OGM/world champion is also a reason they get it that high (because frankly I always thought the judges give PCS partially as a reputation score too). I think MaxSwagg is right. Looking at the GOE and PCS for the WR, the younger ones might need 6 quads and 3 3A to break the total records. But you are also right, I don't think the score is unbreakable, it could be broken with higher tech.

 

[Lysambre]

That's why I haven't even included Boyang as a possible skater to break the WR (although I adore him), but the rest are possible according to the tendency to give their PCS and GOEs. The score is not unbreakable.

I'm not saying it's unbreakable.

I'm saying it's going to take a lot more than just a few more quads. It's going to take absolutely clean skating, with difficult transitions, difficult entries and exit to jumps, great spins, great interpretation, great skating skills. It's also going to take perfect take off and landings for said jumps (especially landings, or they can say goodbye to that perfect +3GOE). It's also going to take a nice reputation marking to get to the kind of PCS Javier and Yuzuru get.

So, unbreakable? absolutely not.

Breakable just by adding a couple more quads? Very hard to believe.

Breakable by a very complete skater? Sure. Can't wait to see it happen in fact, because it'll be an absolute beauty, especially considering what it took to create these records in the first place. Count me in to applaud when it'll happen :agree:

 

[Biellmann]

How long? Well, until Yuzuru himself breaks it

 

[largeman]

How long? Well, until Yuzuru himself breaks it

Yes, and now it's looking like it will happen this season, in fact I'll go out on a limb and say before the end of 2016.

 

[frida80]

2016 GPF, after Yuzuru lands his 4L, two 4S, and a 4T clean in competition along with his breathtaking performance.

Seriously we've come a long way in the last 8 years when just one quad could net you a win.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Oh guys, don't jinx it
We are talking about the guy that hadn't done a clean LP for yeeeaaaars... I'll have all my fingers and toes and whatever crossed, but I wouldn't expect him to break any records again so soon. He's looking really good in those practice clips, but he was still out a long time after that last injury, and he still feels pain. With a layout like that, I won't expect anything.

I'd say maybe he will give us some new SP records (that's kind of his thing ), but with the LP... I'm not touching that prediction with a 10 foot pole.

 

[Chantilly]

Only Hanyu I think.
Javi has a chance.
But it all depends on what is put on the ice on the day.
But clean, Hanyu is unbeatable.
He seems at least to me a once in a lifetime kind of skater.
He was always strong technically but in the last two seasons he brought the PCS levels up to the technical level.
I've been watching skating a long time and it's been a while since we had this level of technical ability and Artistry.
I would like to see a little more maturity from him but it's been coming.
His only real opponent is himself. Because he seems to peak too early or let's the pressure get to him at worlds etc.
I would call him the Roger Federer of men's skating.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Hard to say... with the judges being scrutinized way more this season (no longer being anonymous, and the ISU seeing who is deviating GOE/PCS wise), I think the scores will be more conservative. The GPF was also an anomaly in terms of the eagerness of the judges to throw out outrageously high scores. So, I think it'll be some time before we see Hanyu's FS/total records beaten.

 

[Chantilly]

Hard to say... with the judges being scrutinized way more this season (no longer being anonymous, and the ISU seeing who is deviating GOE/PCS wise), I think the scores will be more conservative. The GPF was also an anomaly in terms of the eagerness of the judges to throw out outrageously high scores. So, I think it'll be some time before we see Hanyu's FS/total records beaten.

Excellent point.