I think it's ridiculous at this stage of the game to project medalists at the Olympics.
LADIES
- Irina Slutskaya has a chronic illness. When she last skated at Torino (Europeans) she seemed to have problems with the altitude and that may have been the reason why her FS was so poor. She had no problems beating Liashenko and Poykio even with her poor performance, but if she skated like that against the Japanese and US ladies, a medal might be out of reach.
- Sasha Cohen continues to have problems skating a clean FS in the major events. In addition, she has had two injuries this season alone (back and groin). This season, she's had more incidences of double-footing jumps than falls, but that can be a problem for her if others skate clean.
- Shizuka Arakawa seems to have lost her competitive fire this past year. Over the years, Shizuka has never been a consistent skater from one year to the next, so whether or not she can regain her 2003-2004 form is questionable.
This year, Shizuka and also seemed to be struggling with technical inconsistency. The 3/3s that were readily credited under 6.0 have been pretty much downgraded to 3/2s under CoP. She may have delivered the skate of a lifetime at 2004 Worlds and may not be able to recapture that moment, and she would have to to have a chance at Olympic gold.
- Carolina Kostner has never been a consistent performer, and she suffers badly from competition nerves when skating in her home country. She barely won the bronze medal at 2005 Worlds and would have to see a huge upgrade in her PCS scores to hold onto a medal.
- Michelle Kwan has indicated that she understands what has to improve to make herself competitive under CoP. But despite a truly awful QR at Worlds 2005, and a CoP-negative FS, Kwan came within .38 of medaling. Major upgrades to her skating are within her capabilities, should she decide to go ahead and compete at Torino, so she cannot be eliminated as a medal contender, perhaps even an OGM contender, if she does upgrade drastically. I think for her to have a strong chance at a medal, she must compete in the GP.
MEN
- Plushenko has had his hernias corrected, but he still has back problems and a long-standing knee injury. He is going to lose training time, but he does have a legitimate excuse for forgoing the GP and the rest may be the best possible medicine for his physical problems.
- Lambiel's quads in the Worlds FS were very impressive, but his consistency on the other jumps was not. Throughout his career, he has not been known for consistency from one event to another. We need to see how he will perform in the GP to get a handle on how he will do sans injury---and that is assuming he doesn't incur still another injury (he's had two knee surgeries so far in his 19 years)
- Joubert is coming out of a disastrous season when he had to change coaches and constantly revise his FS. His parents do not get along with his current coach, which is causing him great personal turmoil. He has got to resolve all these problems in order to have a clear head for Torino. Whether he can regain his form of the 2003-2004 season remains to be seen.
- Buttle says he is working on his quad for this coming season, but in past seasons he hasn't had much success landing the quad in competition. His 3A is only about 50% reliable as well. If other men are landing consistent quads and delivering clean programs, it is questionable whether Buttle can medal with no quad and a missed jump or two.
- Sandhu cannot be relied on to deliver a clean program with all jumps landed. Ever. His ability to medal is very questionable.
- Unless Chengjiang Li can drastically update his programs to include transitions and MIF, he is unlikely to medal unless all the other men splat badly.
- As of today, neither Weir nor Lysacek has a competition quad, although both say they are planning quads for the Olympic season. Weir is very consistent on his other jumps and can earn very superior PCS skills, and Lysacek is a fairly consistent jumper with an engaging performance personality. If either or both can show that they have consistent performance quads, they cannot be eliminated as potential medal contenders.
