How Sasha can beat Irina

[soogar]

I just want to hear Irina's moan again.....
Guys, you remember what she said after last OLY and lost to
Mao Asada at GPF in Japan?

SAID A LOT OF EXCUSES!!! sick, jet lag, I did the same thing in the oly, she is only a child, this cometiton isnt important etc........

I'm looking forward to seeing how she is going to excuse after losing.......

Yeah, the only competition Irina is going to win in these Olympics is the pi$$ and moan competition in the press conference.

As for Sasha winning, I don't see her making the top podium without help with what she has at the moment. I think 3-3s play a big role in who wins. I was reading Sarah's essay in Newsweek and she was talking about how she took the chance and did 2 3-3s even though she wasn't really landing them consistently (which I think is a lot of hyperbole b/c I've watched Sarah skate for many years and she was consistently landing and attempting 3-3s and different ones at that) and that chance paid off in gold.

 

[curious]

Sasha can't OUTJUMP Irina and she has yet to skate a CLEAN program not very promising

 

[nymkfan51]

Sasha has a chance. Her program is well laid out and she has the level of difficulty in her non-jump moves. For her it is all going to be about whether she can do a LP without the falls, step-outs, 2 foots, etc. I don't really know if that's possible or not. Maybe she's saving that one perfect performance for the Olympics ... and it will need to be perfect, IMO, if Irina skates well.

 

[curious]

Sasha has a chance. Her program is well laid out and she has the level of difficulty in her non-jump moves. For her it is all going to be about whether she can do a LP without the falls, step-outs, 2 foots, etc. I don't really know if that's possible or not. Maybe she's saving that one perfect performance for the Olympics ... and it will need to be perfect, IMO, if Irina skates well.

If Irina skates well it won't matter what Sasha does

 

[chuckm]

I have a very hard time believing that if Sasha couldn't skate a clean program at Nationals 2006 where she had no competition, she will skate her first clean FS at Torino. That isn't going to happen.

If both Sasha and Irina have mistakes, Irina will win on PCS if on nothing else. Both of them could be beaten by a performance such as Arakawa did in 2004, and it could come from Arakawa, Suguri or Ando, or even from Kostner (if she can control her nerves) or another unexpectedly strong performance from a European lady (there were several strong performances at Euros today), or even from a recovered Kwan.

Torino will not be a contest between Sasha and Irina. There are other skaters who can challenge both of them.

 

[curious]

I have a very hard time believing that if Sasha couldn't skate a clean program at Nationals 2006 where she had no competition, she will skate her first clean FS at Torino. That isn't going to happen.

If both Sasha and Irina have mistakes, Irina will win on PCS if on nothing else. Both of them could be beaten by a performance such as Arakawa did in 2004, and it could come from Arakawa, Suguri or Ando, or even from Kostner (if she can control her nerves) or another unexpectedly strong performance from a European lady (there were several strong performances at Euros today), or even from a recovered Kwan.

Torino will not be a contest between Sasha and Irina. There are other skaters who can challenge both of them.

Sasha is going to be under huge pressure now that she is view as america's only hope for a medal in torino. Euros was a better skated comp than nats with probabbly the same judges that are going to be at Torino so they will have tons of feed back to improve their programs

 

[soogar]

Sasha is going to be under huge pressure now that she is view as america's only hope for a medal in torino. Euros was a better skated comp than nats with probabbly the same judges that are going to be at Torino so they will have tons of feed back to improve their programs

Well as of now, Michelle is the skater with the more interesting story. There are tons of magazine articles on Michelle's quest for gold that Sasha. That's a good thing for Sasha, but even better for Kimmie.

And a there is a certain skater that won a medal in Euros who can be a serious spoiler.

 

[flowjo35]

Well as of now, Michelle is the skater with the more interesting story. There are tons of magazine articles on Michelle's quest for gold that Sasha. That's a good thing for Sasha, but even better for Kimmie.

That's going to change big time when the olympics roll around. It's already changing after nationals. There will be plenty of media hounding Sasha as America's only hope for a medal in the ladies competition. There will be a lot of pressure on Sasha at the olympics.

 

[SkateFan4Life]

That's going to change big time when the olympics roll around. It's already changing after nationals. There will be plenty of media hounding Sasha as America's only hope for a medal in the ladies competition. There will be a lot of pressure on Sasha at the olympics.

Absolutely. And how Sasha handles that intense pressure will help tell the story as to whether or not she will win gold at Torino.

All things aside, I still expect to see Irina Slutskaya win the gold medal, barring illness or injury.

 

[orchid]

Sasha is going to be under huge pressure now that she is view as america's only hope for a medal in torino. Euros was a better skated comp than nats with probabbly the same judges that are going to be at Torino so they will have tons of feed back to improve their programs

Who is implying Sasha is the only hope for an Olympic medal?

 

[millie]

Sasha can't OUTJUMP Irina and she has yet to skate a CLEAN program not very promising

Sasha QUOTE " Everyone seems to like to put that label on me. "Will she do two good programs" "I think that's a little unfair. I will say honestly that I haven't very often skated perfect programs back to back. But then again, not many people do or have". What Sasha is saying is true. Not too many skaters if any have done perfect programs. With the new scoring system, it doesn't matter if it's a clean program or not, she will still get points for what she does best and that might bring her on top of the podium.

 

[Piel]

Sasha does so many things better than Irina. The only advantage Irina has on Sasha is the size of her jumps and the %$@* Biellman. Sasha's spiral, spins, footwork, and choreography are far superior to Irina's.

 

[R.D.]

Yes...but Irina has stability, consistency, power and speed in her favor- things that Cohen doesn't seem to have (yet). The judges seem to prefer that.

 

[Piel]

And that is what sucks about FS judging now..Personally I do not find power an attractive quality in skating. I want it to be pretty and lyrical.

 

[rain]

I think both skaters have their weaknesses and strengths - and thus both have a good shot at the gold. Slutskaya certainly has momentum on her side, as well, but I never count Cohen out. Under COP, skating absolutely clean is much less important now than it was under 6.0, and this gives Cohen much more of a shot. Even if she doesn't skate absolutely clean under what will be tremendous pressure, I don't know that I've ever seen her have a complete meltdown. One or two mistakes, yes, but not a meltdown. Under COP, she may be able to compensate for a couple of bobbles. Of course, it will depend also on how everybody else skates. Just to point out - judging from reports from Europeans, Slutskaya didn't skate absolutely perfect either, but nonetheless won quite easily.

The comparasin of elements is very interesting and informative. I hadn't quantified it, but in a post on U.S. nationals I replied to somebody who said they thought Cohen's technical content would have to be seriously upped if she wanted to challenge in Torino. I argued she was actually right in the ballpark with the other top ladies. Thanks for proving my point, lol. But seriously, I do think both Slutskaya and Cohen will probably try to add as much technical content as possible - they also might end up removing some of it according to their skate order and what everyone else has done once they hit Torino.

Should be an interesting competition.

 

[Vash01]

Sasha does so many things better than Irina. The only advantage Irina has on Sasha is the size of her jumps and the %$@* Biellman. Sasha's spiral, spins, footwork, and choreography are far superior to Irina's.

Irina's edges, speed, height on jumps and power are far superior to Sasha's. Just getting a leg in a very high position does not make a great spiral. Sasha is almost on the flat of her blade when she does the spiral. She is more beautiful to watch because of her lines, but Irina is the better athlete and better overall skater. However, the better skater does not always win, so Sasha may end up winning, even with her wobbly jumps and mistake filled program.

However, the gold is not just between these two. There are half a dozen other ladies that can win, including Michelle Kwan(if she is healthy enough to skate).

Vash

 

[Rgirl]

Mathman,
I guess you mean "How Sasha Can Beat Irina Legally." Well that's no fun. Just kidding.

I like them both, plus at least two other skaters. And maybe somebody who hasn't captured my heart before will at these Olympics.

I just hope the top three are decided among skaters who each have good short and long programs, although that seems to rarely happen in Olympic singles skating.

Rgirl

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Mathman,
I guess you mean "How Sasha Can Beat Irina Legally." Well that's no fun. Just kidding.

Rgirl

I swear I was thinking the exact same thing...

And I still don't have an answer...

 

[mzheng]

I just hope the top three are decided among skaters who each have good short and long programs, although that seems to rarely happen in Olympic singles skating.

Statisticly will be 50%*50%*50%*50%*50%*50%=2% chance, assume each has 50% chance of skating a clean SP and/or LP. Am I right mm? I'm rusty on math now.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Sasha, imo, is as good if not better than Irina. Everyone knows of Irina's serious illness and Sasha's flu is probably already gone so any sympathetic votes from the judges is in Irina's court.

The roar of the crowd will go to Irina (notwithstanding a bigger roar for Carolina). She is by far the most popular skater in Europe, which imo, carries some weight.

The WOW factors are the answers: Irina's high jumps v. Sasha's high extensions. This also carries some weight.

The contest is decided upon the Technical scores v. the PCS scores and how much each of the skaters will be held up in their weaker of the two.

It will be close if both ladies skate clean. How much the Georgian girl and maybe Kimmie will act as spoilers for the teenage gold is a wait and see.
The Japanese ladies should do a silver and bronze without the spoilers.

For all the Kwaniacs (including me): She will skate beautifully but will lack any technical distinction for a medal.

Joe