Is Mao back in the mix?

[wonderlen3000]

If Mao can't nail the 3+3, maybe she should consider doing a 3-3 sequence. She has a nice 3loop so she could do a 3Lo -2A sequence, which is still higher base value than 3Lo+2lo. Akiko score 64+ with just doing 6 triples and sequence so Mao can prob. get around 70 TES range with higher level of spins and foot work.
Beside Yuna never skate a clean FS and her TES score around pretty much around 65-66 range.

 

[silverlake22]

Beside Yuna never skate a clean FS and her TES score around pretty much around 65-66 range.

Yuna also got a 210 without a triple flip, she would have gotten a 216 with it. She doesn't need to go clean. Mao said she's not changing her programs, though a sequence would be a smart move. Still won't get her a 110 without a 3flip though

 

[silverlake22]

Christina Gao 2005 JGPF LP http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oA4ZoDwqV_A

Compare to Yuna Kim 2005 Jr Worlds SP http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kest7mFUys

See what I mean? Brian Orser is also Gao's coach. Hope this means she has a great future ahead of her!

 

[Phoenix347]

I do recall commenting skepticism at people who were claiming Yuna was unbeatable after TEB. About the only person who has a decent chance of beating Yuna when she is at least on par is Mao. Unless Ando can hit her 3F-3Lo cleanly or land a good quad. If Yuna has a major meltdown, the barn door opens to a lot of skaters.

Mao was never out of it. For some reason she was in a funk in early season. Remember that she had 3 competitions in a month and all those were very early in the season. She might have just compete in the wrong time of her training rhythm. I expect her to win Japan Nationals. She will be at Olympics.

What I really want to see is Yuna, Mao, Ando, Rochette, Flatt (I'm assuming she's going), whoever the third Japanese lady is (probably Suzuki) and even Lepisto (most likely to be at Vancouver) and maybe even Kostner to give their best performance (which would put her in the thick of the chase) at the Games so we can see some beautiful programs. And maybe even some wild surprises (Gedevanishvili?? Leonova?? Wagner? Alissa?? Cohen (if she ever shows up to any competition)??) Isn't that what it should really be all about?

 

[bekalc]

To be honest, Kanako reminds me of a mini-YuNa (I have not seen Christina Gao yet) (or perhaps a little better than a 15-year old YuNa was) but I'm not exactly jumping off the couch in excitement...

That is ridiculous. Kanako is not better than 15 year old Yu-na. Now Kanako may have had better basic skating skills and more polish than Yu-na but Yu-na was a MUCH better jumper (by far)

Yu-na at 15 was actually landing the 3loop fairly regularly, had her 3flip/3toe consistent, and was doing a double axel/3toe/double loop OUT of an ina bauer.

Kanako right now has a 3toe/3toe that's it. Has a horrific 3flutz that gets a LOT of minus GOE (for good reason), and no 3loop. And she actually has some questionable technique.

I like Kanako's style of skating a LOT. But she's not as strong technically as Mao, Yu-na, or Miki was at their age-its frankly not even close there.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Beside Yuna never skate a clean FS and her TES score around pretty much around 65-66 range.

Well her FS are pretty clean compared to a lot of the ladies. Point is she doesn't need to be clean. She just needs to stay on her feet for one of the programs and she will be fine.

I like the idea of a 3/3 sequence for Mao, maybe 3 loop, step 3 toe.

 

[Mafke]

Asada this season reminds me a lot of Ando in 2006. In the middle of a rough patch, in the wrong coaching situation and struggling. Yet it's almost certain that she'll be on the oly team no matter how she performs at Japan nats.

I wouldn't be surprised if she rebounded (in 2006 who expected Ando to be the leading Japanese contender in 2010? In 2005, who expected Arakawa to win at Turin?) but at this point I don't expect much out of her olympic performances.

Two big problems:

1) She never had great jump technique as she was always trying to add more revolutions before she had the mechanics of the jump right in the first place. At this point, she needs to do about 3 ax's in a competition to make up for the lack of other jumps and it's no longer a consistent jump for her (and probably won't ever be again).

2) Tarasova isn't a good match. That's not a criticism of either, it's just not a good pairing. (Mishin and Yagudin were also not a good pairing despite the brilliance of both).

 

[antmanb]

The pressure is definitely getting to the ladies so at this point in time I think Kwanford Wife has it dead on - it would more surprising to see the ones we expect on the top of the Olympic podium.

So far all of the ladies (Miki, Yuna, Moa and Joannie) have had issues with nerves and performing.

Arakawa must be sat at home laughing that after all the winning with only 5 triples comments, the best ladies at the GPF were barely pulling 4 triples out.

Let's see what happens at the Olympics but i don't think we'll see more than 5 triples in the winning performance again.

Mao may feel much happier having gotten her crappy season out of the way early, gone home and knuckled down to some hard work to try to fix the problems and maybe hang on to stay in the mix with the other ladies (who will also miss the top step) and have a surprise winner land above them all!

Ant

 

[snowflake]

When is this exciting Japanese Nationals?

 

[Bennett]

If Mao can't nail the 3+3, maybe she should consider doing a 3-3 sequence. She has a nice 3loop so she could do a 3Lo -2A sequence, which is still higher base value than 3Lo+2lo. Akiko score 64+ with just doing 6 triples and sequence so Mao can prob. get around 70 TES range with higher level of spins and foot work.
Beside Yuna never skate a clean FS and her TES score around pretty much around 65-66 range.

nice. I wish Mao has Kirt or Takeshi next season. they would know these things. TAT doesnt seem to be doing well with COP.

 

[seniorita]

I would never write off mao because of her bad starting, and she is the most natural talented of the ladies in my opinion. When she doesnt apply this talent into her programs it is frustrating.
I dont know why her coach doesnt have a plan B or C in case she messes her axels. It looked that way in Russia.
This thing article that Tarasova is only her consultant upseted me very much...so who is her coach?

 

[bekalc]

(Mishin and Yagudin were also not a good pairing despite the brilliance of both).

Yagudin owes a LOT of his success to Alexei Mishin. Yagudin came to Tarasova with brilliant jumps/good skating skills and that was due to the teaching of Alexei Mishin. Even when he was with Tarasova he never stopped doing the exercises and drills that Mishin taught him. (Even his first coach was Mishin's former student).

Yes Tarasova helped him improve artistically. But without the technical foundation that was laid down by Mishin, Yagudin would have never been the champion he was.

Mishin has a brilliant ability to teach young children how to jump, while giving them also good basic skating technique. He's not the greatest packager, but as a technical coach I don't think Mishin is really second to anyone. I mean just look at how young Elizaveta is developing. Excellent skating skills, excellent edges, and GREAT jumping technique. That's Mishin's work.

He taught Alexei for years. Yes their partnership stopped working but for a long period of time it was quite successful.

 

[silverlake22]

I do recall commenting skepticism at people who were claiming Yuna was unbeatable after TEB. About the only person who has a decent chance of beating Yuna when she is at least on par is Mao. Unless Ando can hit her 3F-3Lo cleanly or land a good quad. If Yuna has a major meltdown, the barn door opens to a lot of skaters.

I would switch Mao and Miki. If Miki is on par and does a 3lz-3lo she has a shot at beating a conservative Yuna. Unless Mao does all three of her 3axels. If even one is UR or popped, she's out. The reason why? The rest of her jumps in the LP.
3f-2lo
3lo (often UR- or at least was at TEB)
3f-2lo-2lo (both loops often UR)
3t
2a
Mao does not attempt even one lutz, and her 3 jump combination is weak due to the high probability of one or both of her double loops being downgraded. Plus Yuna's 3lz-3t is worth more than Mao's 3a-2t (10 vs 9.5 points) and Yuna's chances of hitting that combination are much higher than Mao's are.

The other thing. Mao had a pretty good showing at TEB, and her score was 173.99. Rachael Flatt's score at SA, with the fall in the short and her last spin not counted (comparable mistakes to Mao's at TEB), was 174. 91. Just goes to show that the 3a really isn't THAT valuable, given it's huge risk factor. A 3lz-2t in the 2nd half of the program is pretty much the same in value as a 3a in the 1st half (8.03 vs 8.2 points). Rachael's 3f-2t-2lo at the end of the program is worth 9.13 points which is essentially the same as 9.5 that Mao's 3a-2t at the beginning of the program is worth. Her 3f-3t at the beginning is woth exactly the same, 9.5.

Rachael, Yuna, and Miki have mastered how to get the most points they can without taking huge risks. Mao has not. It's a lot easier to land a 3lz-2t than a 3a, or a 3f-2t-2lo, 3f-3t (for Rachael) or 3lz-3t (for Yunas) than a 3a-2t for Mao. If Rachael or Yuna were to double the second jump or UR it, it wouldn't completely kill the whole jump sequence. For Mao, there is a much bigger risk of this

 

[sorcerer]

When is this exciting Japanese Nationals?

Dec.25th to 27th, JST.

The criteria of JSF in sending skaters to Olympics and Worlds:

1. the skater reaching the highest among the Japanese on the GPF podium (not off the podium) of each discipline, this under the condition that the skater competes in the Nationals.
<Miki and Nobu already locked, unless they pull pull out of Nats>

2. the winner of the Japanese Nationals.
<If Miki and/or Nobu wins the Nats, it will be criterion #3 below applied to the 2nd place finisher, no automatic slot for him/her.>

3. selected from
(A) the podium finishers at Nationals,
(B) GP Finalists, and
(C) the top three Japanese ISU rankers at the time of Nationals;
determined under thorough considerations.

It says this criterion "3" in particular is primarily for Oly Games and that the slot(s) for the Worlds determined by this "3" might differ from the Olys, which is to give chances to runner ups.

Akiko Suzuki already satisfies 3(B) and 3(C) so she is at the moment the closest to the Oly games aside from Miki in this system, literal-wise.

But of course Mao who satisfies 3(C) and who happens to have a god chance for the automatic criterion "2" is the strongest bet among those chasing the 2 slots left for the Japanese ladies.

ETA:
If Miki/Nobu wins Nats, the other 2 ladies/men sent to Worlds will possibly be different from those sent to Olys, especially the ladies.

 

[Bennett]

Dec.25th to 27th, JST.

The criteria of JSF in sending skaters to Olympics and Worlds:

1. the skater reaching the highest among the Japanese on the GPF podium (not off the podium) of each discipline, this under the condition that the skater competes in the Nationals.
<Miki and Nobu already locked, unless they pull pull out of Nats>

2. the winner of the Japanese Nationals.
<If Miki and/or Nobu wins the Nats, it will be criterion #3 below applied to the 2nd place finisher, no automatic slot for him/her.>

3. selected from
(A) the podium finishers at Nationals,
(B) GP Finalists, and
(C) the top three Japanese ISU rankers at the time of Nationals;
determined under thorough considerations.

It says this criterion "3" in particular is primarily for Oly Games and that the third slot for the Worlds might differ from the Olys, which is to give chances to runner ups.

Akiko Suzuki already satisfies 3(B) and 3(C) so she is at the moment the closest to the Oly games aside from Miki in this system, literal-wise.

But of course Mao who satisfies 3(C) and who happens to have a god chance for the automatic criterion "2" is the strongest bet among those chasing the 2 slots left for the Japanese ladies.

Oh, thanks! Great!!!

Wasn't 3(C) initially created to "rescue" Dai, as JFS was not sure in the beginning of the season if he would recover in the timely manner, IIRC? But now it seems to rescue Mao.

Then it seems clear that Mao would certainly go, no matter what. I do not know if it is good or not though, considering what happened 4 yrs ago with Miki.

 

[100yen]

So basically, Yuna wins. Mao is bound to pop, UR, or fall one at least one of her 3 3axel attempts. If she does, even if Yuna is subpar, Yuna will probably win. Plus then there's Mao's flutz and potential UR calls on her 2loops at the end of combinations. With the technical panel so strict recently, Mao would be smarter to abandon some of her 3a attempts, but the thing is, she needs them to have a shot at winning. Even with them, she won't get a 210 like yuna does

Someone is Yu-Na biased :sheesh:

 

[silverlake22]

Someone is Yu-Na biased :sheesh:

Heh. Maybe. If Mao actually delivered this season like we know she can this bias would be less. Plus Yuna is pretty , meaning judges won't give her bad scores even if she bombs because I can't find any other explanation for the medaling of Kiira and Laura this GP season other than their good looks....ice skating is becoming a beuaty pageant

 

[R.D.]

Well, it seems to be mainly the Finnish girls who are getting the "beauty points"

Still though, at least Kiira- her skating just doesn't do anything for me (looks, on the other hand ). Laura, I dunno- I've paid little attention to her but her SC FS was catchy.

And Yuna- well...maybe she's someone that one has to see live, because while she's clearly better than her competitors, I still don't get the BIIIIIIG deal over her.

 

[silverlake22]

Well, it seems to be mainly the Finnish girls who are getting the "beauty points"

Still though, at least Kiira- her skating just doesn't do anything for me (looks, on the other hand ). Laura, I dunno- I've paid little attention to her but her SC FS was catchy.

And Yuna- well...maybe she's someone that one has to see live, because while she's clearly better than her competitors, I still don't get the BIIIIIIG deal over her.

I've seen her live and it really does make a different. She is so fast on the ice and her jumps are so powerful! And Laura is fun to watch but she still only ever does 2-4 triples in her programs and gets really high scores

 

[Bennett]

Well, it seems to be mainly the Finnish girls who are getting the "beauty points"

Still though, at least Kiira- her skating just doesn't do anything for me (looks, on the other hand ). Laura, I dunno- I've paid little attention to her but her SC FS was catchy.

I do not necessarily think that they are getting the scores primarily because of their pretty faces (of course, it may be a factor). Don't forget that their skating skills are just fantastic. I really love their skating skills. I agree that Kiira's programs and technical elements may not be too extremely exciting to watch. Her costumes are also disappointing to me. Yet, her strokes are wonderful even though not extremely fast. Laura is a great performer and is a whole package that portrait specific themes. Her skating is very fast and she has beautiful techniques if and when she lands those jumps.