And she has a chance. Not that I am a big fan of her current skating. I think it is too slow and basic when compared to her own self in Sochi. But she has experience of Olympics and she can get at the top of her shape by then, give it all and skate clean like she did in Sochi. And everybody else may not withstand Olympic pressure Evgenia included. She seems to be not yet OK with her FS layout. Add lack of Olympic experience, add the crowd who may not be friendly (I hope, it won't happen, though). And then Caro suddenly has a chance even for OGM. That would be a feat even bigger than Maria Butyrskaya's worlds medal.
i dont think getting 70 without 3-3 is overscoring, Figure skating isnt scored solely from TES, there is PCS too. i've seen the program and imo her artistic side is still one of the best. she does have overscoring moment, like her score in 2017 WC which is completely ridiculous, getting high PCS for a clean peformance like in Lombardia is okay, but her WC performance is a mess. if she can get her 3-3 back, even with just 3T-3T and adding one lutz in FP she can scored 140+
3T-3T
3F
3Lo
3F+2T
2A+Lo+3S
3Lz
2A
this is not a bad layout, if she cant do 3F-3T yet
Compared to Alina's layout it is novice skating, but it's not just the layout: for today's standards she is clearly lacking on transitions and some of the jumps are telegraphed.
My bet is that as long as the others (outside the russians) aren't the doing incredible things (for instance that layout is very similar to Gabby's layout last season), she has a chance because yes the russians are doing their own competitions but the rest is far behind and Carolina Kostner can win with her high components.
Out of curiosity, is she planning on upgrading jumps and changing layout a little bit? Or sticking with the same jumps she has so far this season?