Doggygirl said:
Red Dog, I think you will find the score sheets far more telling if you dig a bit deeper. Simply looking at total TSS, TES, PCS and the PCS breakdown isn't where I anyway, find the most telling things. It's in the elements for me, especially when comparing top skaters who are close to each other. Especially across competitions - TES tells more IMO than PCS does across comps.
Here's an example, when examining why Irina scored 70 in the SP at COC. Look at the GOE. Irina did a "clean" program (according to the judges, which I define as no negative GOE on any elements). She got +7 GOE - in the SHORT program. I believe that was a result of skating 100% clean with strong, well executed high level elements, and skating WITH attack and WITH verve and WITH showmanship.
That's one thing Irina does right. She commands the ice, is a powerful performer, and is VERY consistent. And ITA, too, that that will make her very difficult to beat if she keeps that up. She's showing no signs of slowing down.
But my real beef is that I think Irina's being scored a little higher sometimes than she should be.
Ironically while many people are complaining about Irina's PCS scores, she was only scored about 1.5 points higher on total PCS (for SP) at COC than she was at World's. And IMO, her COC SP was performed better than her SP at World's, so that small uptick in PCS is OK. The real story of the 70 point SP is to be found in TES.
The LP is interesting in the other direction. Her World's LP (IMO) was one of those "on fire" performances. It was clean if you go by my definition, which is NO negative GOE on any elements. (that was not the case in her LP at COC). Her total score and PCS were higher for that "on fire" LP at world's than at COC.
She DID get a bunch of high 7s and low 8's, though (in the COC SP). I believe Irina's Moscow LP score was something like 132? I don't think ANY other skater on their best day can post a score like that. MAYBE, maybe Cohen but she'd have to light the place on fire (maybe literally, too
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I'm not so much into analyzing and looking into these sheets. They are fun to look at just to see where everyone is, and to attempt making predictions for future competitions, but that's about it.
LBC, I totally agree with you that Sasha does in fact, have the technical content (especially if planned = actual) to rival Irina. She has just GOT to get some clean skates under her belt. I really think Irina's "crushing" SP score at COC had to do with the fact that she not only did all of the elements cleanly, she did them ALL cleanly in a very commanding and confident way. IMO, that is what will make Irina difficult to beat if she keeps skating this way through the season. It's not about PCS gifts IMO.
Well, we'll see. But IMO it's NOT about getting clean skates under your belt. All it takes is that ONE performance, and you can be as inconsistent as ever, but if it all comes together in the most important event of the season, you still achieve your goal. Remember, this is not a lifetime achievement award- it's simply who wins that night. Even the best of the best have off nights every now and then.
Now, granted, getting "clean skates under [one's] belt" helps build confidence. But I would be more worried about a skater who comes crashing through the gate, because by the time Feb. rolls around, will you still have some left in you? Irina is doing well now, but will she continue to? IIRC she has one more event, then the GPF. Let's see how she does there. She's basically all but guaranteed a win, but it would be interesting to look at point values.
RD - You're making Sasha into a poor underdog and hoping the underdog will win but she is the top contender to beat Irina and has been since 2005 Worlds.
Perhaps, but...
Irina's got consistency across the board. Cohen does not.
Irina (lately) has not been skating with caution. Can't say the same for Cohen
BUT- it seems like Cohen has a one-jump advantage over Slutskaya. Can she fully utilize that advantage? She's going to HAVE to land all seven of those jumps to win the OGM. It's that simple. Even a single stumble, two-foot or save could be the end. Not to mention
STOP SKATING CAUTIOUSLY. I can't possibly stress that enough.
It's not necessarily about making Cohen into an underdog. I already said she will be the American favorite. She WILL be a favorite whether she likes it or not. Nothing I say or do can stop that. But you're certainly right, she is one of the top contenders. But keep in mind that there's Irina.
Then there's Arakawa, Cohen, and the others.
Sasha had a 58.0 base at TEB and Irina a 57.8 That is mainly because she is doing 7 triples and Irina only 6. Sasha had 3 elements downgraded from Campbell's. Only had 1 level 4 in the LP. Her spiral got downgraded to a level 3 and another spin to a level 2 along with her footwork going down to a 2. The difference is that Irina executes her jumps better. Sasha just had all kinds of negative goe's on her jumps at TEB. Ended up with at tech score about the same as her base.
