Looking back on the careers of Yu Na Kim and Michelle Kwan

[pangtongfan]

It is quite an achievement... although I do wonder if she would have held on to it, if she hadn't largely stayed away from competition for the last quad.

If she competed this whole quad it would mean she was more motivated than she actually was as we saw her and still coming 1st or 2nd in each event she was in. Given that the skating of 2011-2014 was weaker than 2007-2010 a motivated Kim would not have missed a podium even competing the whole quad.

However that is moot in a comparision to Kwan since as I said Kwan from age 15 to 23 never missed a podium, and from age 16 to 20 was never lower than 2nd in any competition. She already matches Kim in the first and surpasses her in the second.

 

[sk8in]

^pangton I'm pretty sure Yuna was recovering from a toe injury for most of the 2013 grand prix season. She also stopped doing the loop apparently because of an injury. That's not exactly the same as 'lacking motivation.' CoP values technique, difficulty, and execution of jumps. That's why Asada pursues the triple axel, and that's why no one just does a triple toe loop that's not in combination anymore.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

However that is moot in a comparision to Kwan since as I said Kwan from age 15 to 23 never missed a podium, and from age 16 to 20 was never lower than 2nd in any competition. She already matches Kim in the first and surpasses her in the second.

You're just using specific age ranges to prove your point.

From age 16 to 24, Kim never missed a podium (technically from 14 to 23, if you count her junior career).
One could also say from age 18-23 (save for the 2011-2012 season, where she certainly would have continued to win given the lower standard that season), Kim never placed lower than 2nd in any competition, which Kwan didn't achieve.

 

[YesWay]

If she competed this whole quad it would mean she was more motivated than she actually was as we saw her and still coming 1st or 2nd in each event she was in. Given that the skating of 2011-2014 was weaker than 2007-2010 a motivated Kim would not have missed a podium even competing the whole quad. .

I was thinking more like: over an extra four years of constant competition, would she have escaped all injuries, illness, fatigue etc, maintain focus and motivation for 4 whole seasons, never have a freak off-day or hit a rut in the ice etc etc? Add to that the foibles of judging, and tech panel etc... and it's entirely possible (!) she could have been off the podium once or twice.

I know some would argue otherwise... but I contend that she is, in fact, ONLY HUMAN! :-D

 

[pangtongfan]

I was thinking more like: over an extra four years of constant competition, would she have escaped all injuries, illness, fatigue etc, maintain focus and motivation for 4 whole seasons, never have a freak off-day or hit a rut in the ice etc etc. Add to that the foibles of judging, and tech panel etc... and it's entirely possible she could have been off the podium once or twice.

I know some would argue otherwise... but I contend that she is, in fact, ONLY HUMAN! :-D

I see your point, but I would say the much higher likelihood is her to not miss a podium even competing full time in those 4 years, especialy as that means her being motivated. The quality of ladies skating was MUCH better from 2007-2010 after all, and she didnt miss a single podium then so......Again in the comparision to Kwan though who didnt miss a podium from 15-23 I find it moot. Had she kept continuing or makes a comeback in the future and continues her streak of not missing a medal past 23 then I will acknowledge it as an edge, but at this point no. As it is now she hasnt done anything Michelle hasnt in that regard.

^pangton I'm pretty sure Yuna was recovering from a toe injury for most of the 2013 grand prix season. She also stopped doing the loop apparently because of an injury. That's not exactly the same as 'lacking motivation.' CoP values technique, difficulty, and execution of jumps. That's why Asada pursues the triple axel, and that's why no one just does a triple toe loop that's not in combination anymore.

I am not referring to just this season. She obviously was not motivated in 2011-2012 whatsoever, but she still showed up at worlds and won the silver easily in 2011, arguably wuzrobbed of the gold. Even today I dont think her motivation is what it was in the past, nor is her skating. Like I said the 2010 Kim would never lose an Olympic gold to Sotnikova, even in a poorly judged event.

 

[leoncorazon]

I think that we should compare programs...Michelle's best in my opinion was The Red Violin at 2000 Worlds...Kim's best I think was either 2010 Olympics or Phantom at 2013 worlds. The technical mark goes to Kim 5.9 vs. 5.8 for Kwan, artistic I give to Kwan 5.9 to 5.8 to Kim...was the artistic mark the tie breaker? I can't remember but if the artistic mark is the decider then Kwan win's by a frog position....or a charlotte stop spiral...We could also go down the list...next being Kwan's Song of the Black Swan vs. Kim's Phantom, then Kwan's Lyra vs. Kim's...and so on and so forth...that being said I think Kwan's body of work is slightly better than Kim's however Kim was able to deliver cleanly at two Olympics and Kwan was not...in the end I think we have to call it a draw and love them both for being fabulous!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Another thing is, while Kwan has had a career of longevity which resulted in some non-podium finishes, not only has Kim never been off the podium her entire career, her gold medal percentage is far better than Kwan's, as in whenever she DID compete she was more likely (21% more likely, in fact) to win gold.

Out of 23 Senior international competitions, Kim's medal stats:
Gold - 16 (70%)
Silver - 4 (17%)
Bronze - 3 (13%)
Non-podium - 0 (0%)

Out of 39 Senior international competitions, Kwan's medal stats:
Gold - 19 (49%)
Silver - 12 (31%)
Bronze - 4 (10%)
Non-podium - 4 (10%)

Kwan competed in 16 more senior international competitions than Kim, and has just 3 more golds than her.

 

[sk8in]

I am not referring to just this season. She obviously was not motivated in 2011-2012 whatsoever, but she still showed up at worlds and won the silver easily in 2011, arguably wuzrobbed of the gold. Even today I dont think her motivation is what it was in the past, nor is her skating. Like I said the 2010 Kim would never lose an Olympic gold to Sotnikova, even in a poorly judged event.

Well obviously her motivation today is not 'what it was.' She is retired. Miki Ando beat her without a triple-triple combination, so I don't see how 2011 Worlds is indicative of 'reputation' bonus points or whatever. The fact is her layout was virtually the same or improved over the course of a 8-9 year career. There are very few skaters who can or will ever be able to say that.

 

[pointyourtoe]

CanadianSkaterGuy
I'm not here to compare them, and I certainly don't think cheesefests mean anything in the medal count, but you do have to remember that because of the skating boom, Kwan was competing in 8-11 events a year for about a 5 year period (96-01). Top skaters during that time had extremely strenuous schedules (for monetary gain, of course) even if the medals are considered jokes because they are cheesefests. That's in addition to the yearly tours of 75+ dates

 

[skatedreamer]

...in the end I think we have to call it a draw and love them both for being fabulous!

:agree:

Works for me!

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think that we should compare programs...Michelle's best in my opinion was The Red Violin at 2000 Worlds...Kim's best I think was either 2010 Olympics or Phantom at 2013 worlds. The technical mark goes to Kim 5.9 vs. 5.8 for Kwan, artistic I give to Kwan 5.9 to 5.8 to Kim...was the artistic mark the tie breaker?

To me, 7 triples with a weaker 3-3 would score equally on technical merit as 6 triples with a harder 3-3. Off topic, but I think Mao's Sochi LP would have beaten every 6.0 LP ever skated. Eight triples, a 2A-3T, the second most difficult 3-3 ever done by a lady and a 3A would for sure get 6.0 on tech, and her overall skating is strong enough to merit a 6.0 in artistry when she's that clean.

 

[pangtongfan]

Off topic, but I think Mao's Sochi LP would have beaten every 6.0 LP ever skated. Eight triples, a 2A-3T, the second most difficult 3-3 ever done by a lady and a 3A would for sure get 6.0 on tech, and her overall skating is strong enough to merit a 6.0 in artistry when she's that clean.

If she skated in the last group for sure. If she skated in the 3rd last flight she would have been lowballed in the marks under 6.0 just as she was under IJS. When factoring in her excellent spins, spirals, and reasonably good footwork though, yes it was worth a 6.0, 6.0 potentially. While her jumps arent as big as Kim, Sotnikova, or some skaters past, she still has excellent air position, rotation, ascent and descent ratio, rythym, flow out, and landings, apart from her < issues which are less important under 6.0 anyway unless they are really glaring ala Bonaly or Hughes, which hers arent to that extent.

As for Kim's 3 lutz-3 toe under 6.0 judges actually seemed to reward the hard 3-3s under 6.0 more than IJS rewards it. On the other hand they never dealt with a top skater who wasnt even trying 1 of the 3 major standard triples (lutz, flip, loop) ever before, and it is hard to say how they would deal with that rare occurence and issue I cant recall them facing from a top skater. By the early 2000s the judges were starting to mark Kwan down in technical merit, and to a lesser degree in presentation, compared to the higher jumps and faster overall skating and ice coverage of Slutskaya though, which would be something in Kim's favor, especialy as her 3-3s are much more consistent than Irina's were.

 

[jenaj]

Michelle was at the senior level earlier because there were no age restrictions. It's a little unfair, for instance, to count her senior competitions when she was 12. Yu Na also won some basically non-contested B events in 2012 and 2013. But in the end, I think it is pointless to try to compare their records and draw any conclusions other than both had amazing competitive results.

Another thing is, while Kwan has had a career of longevity which resulted in some non-podium finishes, not only has Kim never been off the podium her entire career, her gold medal percentage is far better than Kwan's, as in whenever she DID compete she was more likely (21% more likely, in fact) to win gold.

Out of 23 Senior international competitions, Kim's medal stats:
Gold - 16 (70%)
Silver - 4 (17%)
Bronze - 3 (13%)
Non-podium - 0 (0%)

Out of 39 Senior international competitions, Kwan's medal stats:
Gold - 19 (49%)
Silver - 12 (31%)
Bronze - 4 (10%)
Non-podium - 4 (10%)

Kwan competed in 16 more senior international competitions than Kim, and has just 3 more golds than her.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Michelle was at the senior level earlier because there were no age restrictions. It's a little unfair, for instance, to count her senior competitions when she was 12. Yu Na also won some basically non-contested B events in 2012 and 2013. But in the end, I think it is pointless to try to compare their records and draw any conclusions other than both had amazing competitive results.

They are pretty close and I think who a fan prefers is more a reflection of what the fan values, rather than the skaters' objective results.

 

[jkun]

To me, 7 triples with a weaker 3-3 would score equally on technical merit as 6 triples with a harder 3-3. Off topic, but I think Mao's Sochi LP would have beaten every 6.0 LP ever skated. Eight triples, a 2A-3T, the second most difficult 3-3 ever done by a lady and a 3A would for sure get 6.0 on tech, and her overall skating is strong enough to merit a 6.0 in artistry when she's that clean.

Unfortunately, with how the 6.0 system ran, and her skating so early, it would have been hard to get above 5.8s for both marks. Had she skated last, or after her other medal contending competitors, then we could expect a row of 6.0s.

 

[sk8in]

Well I think is Mao's Vancouver performance was judged under the 6.0 system it is likely that she would have an OGM. The historic nature of two triple axels would have weighed a lot more heavily in the final scores, and Yuna's overall speed/power wouldn't have been as valued.

 

[Components]

Sotnikova was not mediocre. She landed 7 triples (6 if her 3T was deemed UR), which is more than the 5 Ando did to win her World title in 2011. Sotnikova also attempted all 5 triples in Sochi, and went for a 3-3, whereas Ando avoided the flip. Ando's 2007 World title skates though were superbly jumped though and better than Sotnikova's Sochi skates.

As actual skaters, I personally think Adelina's skating is currently still average and I've always thought the same about Ando (although at her best, she's somewhat better than Sotnikova is right now).

Calling Sotnikova mediocre when she railed off all that technical content in Sochi is what's laughable. I know she was gifted the win over Kim and Kostner, but her skates were still great, and she deserves more than just "mediocre". If anything, Hanyu was "mediocre" in his win, along with Chan's silver and Ten's bronze, compared to Sotnikova/Kim/Kostner.

Ando's "skating" is not better than Sotnikova's. Ando's skating was pretty terrible compared to most top skaters these days. There are Russian and US juniors with much better skating skills, and certainly Juniors in Japan who are much better skaters than she was at her *peak*. She was not much better in 2007 than she was in 2011, nevermind outside of the jumps she was merely average (spins, for example). The most noticeable thing about her "comeback" this year was that:

1. Girl can jump (seriously, when I seen her do those huge 3Lz I was like "PROPS!")
2. She can't skate or spin to save her life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9U76uPa8Ss

Lol. She skated around the rink doing predominantly crossovers, with some three turns and mohawks thrown in. Her chest is almost on her thigh while doing crossovers. She telegraphs half of her jumps. She was like the female Plushenko. The poster child for how reputation can affect your PCS scores, because like him any judge looking at the program objectively would have a hard time going above 5s or 6s in any of the PCS categories for that programs - especially for SS and TR.

I do think [and like] that her spinning was better back then. I'm pretty sure she was lipping back then as well, which is probably why she avoided the flip for a time later in her career.

Whether you think Sotnikova was gifted the gold is your opinion. Do not state it as fact.

Ando won her world medals because she stayed upright when better skaters faltered, and reputation judging - cause no one else was able to pull in her PCS levels with that amount of weak skating and an apparent lack of ability to hear music.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Well I think is Mao's Vancouver performance was judged under the 6.0 system it is likely that she would have an OGM. The historic nature of two triple axels would have weighed a lot more heavily in the final scores, and Yuna's overall speed/power wouldn't have been as valued.

Under 6.0, Mao in 2010 probably would have still done her under-rotated 3-3s and 3(f)Lz, both of which weren't really penalized under the old system, so I think she would have had a good chance to win.

 

[Components]

Under 6.0, Mao in 2010 probably would have still done her under-rotated 3-3s and 3(f)Lz, both of which weren't really penalized under the old system, so I think she would have had a good chance to win.

Which is why it's bad to compare skaters across eras and it's bad to place a program in a different era and "guess" how it would have fared against the competition.

If current skaters skated under 6.0, their entire programs would have been constructed differently, their technical content would not be laid out the same way (front-loaded SPs were par for the course in 6.0, for example, and skaters like Plushenko (i.e. Vancouver) who laid their programs out like that lose Olympic Medals/Titles because of it).

Some of the issues we have with current skaters were never thought about in 6.0. There are even required elements in the SP or FS that were completely removed later in IJS - like the Spiral Sequence for Ladies.

IJS is all about the points - more sport. 6.0 was all about the "effect" of the program - more art.

Also, the Ordinal System was such that Mao wouldn't have been looking at the rankings and seeing she had almost no chance of catching Kim if she was close to Clean in Vancouver if 6.0 was used. All she would have had to do was place ahead of her in the FS to win the competition (Top 3 "Chose their own Destiny"), which is a different psychological effect than what can potentially happen in IJS due to its points system.

 

[CarneAsada]

The talk about 6.0 makes me wonder if Mao and Yuna would have more clean programs under 6.0. The greater emphasis on clean programs and the decreased emphasis on squeezing points out of spins might have helped.

Under 6.0, Mao in 2010 probably would have still done her under-rotated 3-3s and 3(f)Lz, both of which weren't really penalized under the old system, so I think she would have had a good chance to win.

Under 6.0 Mao would at least have won the required elements in the SP as a 3A-2T was more highly regarded than any kind of 3-3. In the long I do think she might have attempted her flutz and her 3-3 if it was in any state to be seen by the public, but that is doubtful as her 3Flip was reportedly getting worse and worse in practices. Under 6.0 she wouldn't have needed a 3-3 anyway as no amount of double Axels could make up for two 3As. The major difference if they were under 6.0 is that Mao wouldn't have bothered trying to fix her flutz and that could have changed everything.