Men OGM Contenders 2018

[sarama]

I think this is going to be one of the most exciting OG men's competitions. It's not just between two men but six men who all could be on the podium in any order. All of them have really pushed skating to the next level. I know I'm going to be glued to my seat... sigh bed, in the middle of the night... I won't be getting any sleep obviously. But I cant wait for the men's event.

It's going to be a thrilling event just because anything could happen... And I feel you, those two sleepless weeks are going to be exhausting, but they will be so worth it especially for the men!

 

[LRK]

I've realised that my feelings regarding the men's event can be summed up by... the songs from The Hobbit :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zakVfDY0xZk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxFlieVD204

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vj5ImRiTtRw

 

[mrrice]

I swear I've asked this question before but I can't find it so I'm going to ask it again. Has Patrick talked about his plans regarding the team event? I don't really know the order of things but, he really has a chance of winning a team OGM with Canada and I wonder if that would be enough for him. He already has a Silver from Sochi and with Hanyu, Shoma, and Jin skating so well, he might try to focus his energy on the team event. Didn't Yulia have her best skate during the team event?

 

[Violet Bliss]

It's interesting to note that Patrick was a favorite to win at Sochi as far as odds were concerned and believed but he was not a favorite skater of many. This time around, his perceived odds are quite low and chances deemed slim yet he has become a sentimental favorite of many more fans than before.

He has a different perspective this time and the pressure is much less so I hope to see him at his best with the most memorable and masterful performances.

 

[NoNameFace]

It's interesting to note that Patrick was a favorite to win at Sochi as far as odds were concerned and believed but he was not a favorite skater of many. This time around, his perceived odds are quite low and chances deemed slim yet he has become a sentimental favorite of many more fans than before.

He has a different perspective this time and the pressure is much less so I hope to see him at his best with the most memorable and masterful performances.

hello there

I agree - seeing Patrick in competition post-Sochi helped me personally see in him more than 'just' a World Champion, Olympic medalist and a formidable competitor. Somehow, I receive his skating as more 'at ease', with more flow and 'movement dialogue' put there aside of technical elements. Yes - his skating always has tis kind of reflective, lyric and artistic vibe, but it evolved into something very intimate, individual and special in my opinon.

This past season, what I gathered from Patrick's skating, performances is a feel of profound impact, impression made and lingering on my mind long after watching. And all of this is made not by his jumps, programs being successful - he made me look, admire and then think mostly by the way he molds his body into instrument expressing the music, how he can focus on this very moment to create an impression that calls deep inside my sensitivity. Ad yes - maybe due to my age showing , but Patrick is really calling into some sentiment I have for artists like him, because I truly miss such moments nowadays...

Not only he seems to be in a different place how and with different perspective than before 2014, but as I said - he made me change/adjust my perspective on him, too.

 

[kevinVchicago]

I'm so excited for this season. I'm rooting for Jin Boyang! He can absolutely medal. I hope it's a gold. I would love to see Deniss Vasiljevs and Mikhail Kolyada skate with the TES to challenge the top 5. Looking forward to see what they all have in store for this year. It's such a great men's field.

 

[chillgil]

isn't there that olympic games curse thing where whoever wins OGM won bronze in their first worlds? hello boyang....

 

[Interspectator]

isn't there that olympic games curse thing where whoever wins OGM won bronze in their first worlds? hello boyang....

It's Yuzu or Boyang. Or the whole thing is nonsense.

 

[silverlake22]

I feel strongly that the podium will consist of Hanyu, Uno, and either Jin or Chen. I love Javi but fear he'll be 4th again

 

[4everchan]

well just in case it gets there.. Patrick is working on his 4flip.... he had landed it years ago said David Wilson in interview and there is an article now talking about him trying things out.

FYI as a follower of Patrick, his 3F has always been better than his 3Loop or 3Salchow... so who knows??? Perhaps he may even feel better with the 4flip and include it in the SP..

if he indeed did that, his BV would be same as Shoma, higher than Javi and Yuzu.... only guys with the 4lz in the Sp, if they earn all levels on non-jump elements would start with a higher base value than Patrick.... so that can change things slightly as last year, Patrick had the lowest base value in the top 6 at worlds for the SP.... With his gorgeous skating it could be very dangerous for the other guys. Experience may be a factor too.... in any case... this is still early on and there is no layout confirmation not even program confirmation... but two words


GO PATRICK!!!!!!!!!

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

well just in case it gets there.. Patrick is working on his 4flip.... he had landed it years ago said David Wilson in interview and there is an article now talking about him trying things out.

FYI as a follower of Patrick, his 3F has always been better than his 3Loop or 3Salchow... so who knows??? Perhaps he may even feel better with the 4flip and include it in the SP..

if he indeed did that, his BV would be same as Shoma, higher than Javi and Yuzu.... only guys with the 4lz in the Sp, if they earn all levels on non-jump elements would start with a higher base value than Patrick.... so that can change things slightly as last year, Patrick had the lowest base value in the top 6 at worlds for the SP.... With his gorgeous skating it could be very dangerous for the other guys. Experience may be a factor too.... in any case... this is still early on and there is no layout confirmation not even program confirmation... but two words


GO PATRICK!!!!!!!!!

:agree2:

 

[xeyra]

I know BV talk is useless but I've done the math on the planned layouts for the SP for next season so I wanted to see how Patrick with the 4F in the SP, if he did bring it, would stack up.

*Nathan CHEN: 4Lz3T 4F // 3A BV: 53.15 (0.00)
*Boyang JIN: 4Lz3T 3A // 4T BV: 51.33 (0.00)
Shoma UNO: 4F // 4T3T 3A | BV: 51.31 (1.46)
Yuzuru HANYU: 4Lo // 3A 4T3T | BV: 51.01 (1.35)
Patrick CHAN: 4T3T 4S // 3A | BV: 48.05 (4.75) OR 4T3T 4F // 3A BV: 49.85 (6.55)
*Javier FERNÁNDEZ: 4T3T 4S // 3A | BV: 47.75 (0.00)

Number in parenthesis is the BV difference against last season's SP layout.
*No information on upgrades yet.

For Patrick, just bringing in the 4S would already be an almost 5 point jump from his previous layout! With a 4F in his SP, that would be 6.55 points.

Edit: I forgot to add that, as can be seen, the power of backloading a combo is still very strong for a BV.

 

[4everchan]

^^ this is assuming that Patrick puts both quads back to back.... which he did the only time he tried two quads in a SP. However, it will depend on his program as for years, he has done 3a second and kept the solo jump for the second half. I think it's a bit too soon to assign these numbers but i guess it's the off season

 

[xeyra]

^^ this is assuming that Patrick puts both quads back to back.... which he did the only time he tried two quads in a SP. However, it will depend on his program as for years, he has done 3a second and kept the solo jump for the second half. I think it's a bit too soon to assign these numbers but i guess it's the off season

Yeah I was going by his attempted two quad layout at WTT. It's right we don't know much yet but the layout above was what I think might be the more realistic possibility.

But we have to account for the risk/reward, in an Olympic season. Second half in SP terms seems a bit silly once you do two quads on the first half of a FS but not many risk combos or quads there. A 4T3T 3A // 4F layout seems doable but you'd be asking him to do his new quad as his last jump, which is different than doing an old friend like the 3Lz.

Still, this would be more likely than 4F 3A // 4T3T or 4F3T 3A // 4T, because in the first he'd be risking the combo at the end, and the second would be asking him to do a combo on his new quad.

Whatever he does, thought, it's still going to put him in a much more dangerous position against the others BV wise.

 

[4everchan]

Yeah I was going by his attempted two quad layout at WTT. It's right we don't know much yet but the layout above was what I think might be the more realistic possibility.

But we have to account for the risk/reward, in an Olympic season. Second half in SP terms seems a bit silly once you do two quads on the first half of a FS but not many risk combos or quads there. A 4T3T 3A // 4F layout seems doable but you'd be asking him to do his new quad as his last jump, which is different than doing an old friend like the 3Lz.

Still, this would be more likely than 4F 3A // 4T3T or 4F3T 3A // 4T, because in the first he'd be risking the combo at the end, and the second would be asking him to do a combo on his new quad.

Whatever he does, thought, it's still going to put him in a much more dangerous position against the others BV wise.

the point i am making

we cannot look at WTT because his programme wasn't designed to welcome two quads, for instance, the elaborate and draining step sequence was right before the 3lz, so when they decided to add the second quad, they moved things around and it didn't work out for him.

considering the short length of a SP and the fact that Patrick has included in his LP a quad in the second half now, it is quite possible that he builds his program differently this time
4t-3t, 3a... // 4f (or 4s)

I can totally see this happen but in which case, either the step sequence would come after the final jump (moving a spin earlier or just some choreo) or if it still comes earlier, it could be slightly less elaborate to allow for enough time to set up a quad in the second half. with blackbird, there was no time to do so.

that's why I am saying that it's too early to assign Patrick with BVs as you cannot judge based on wtt which in itself wasn't making any sense with the choreo in place. Patrick like everyone else, needs time to set up a quad properly and as it wasn't the plan at the beginning of the season, his program was too tightly knit for it.

so yes in the end, no matter what he does, bringing a second quad anywhere anyways, is going to raise his BV.. but we knew that already... that's the plan.

 

[yude]

I think the skater (in top 6?) who makes less mistake is going to win.

Go, Yuzuru Hanyu, Go!!

 

[Li'Kitsu]

that's why I am saying that it's too early to assign Patrick with BVs

You're the one who 'started' that though by comparing his BV to that of the other guys and saying his BV would be higher than/equal to Javis, Yuzus and Shomas (so assigning all of them BVs already as well). Thing is, we don't have any 100% set layout for any of them, but it's very likely Patrick won't have a higher BV than Yuzu & Shoma. While both have already introduced upgrades to their BV by putting their quad combos in the second half, they might still upgrade more - Yuzu might bring the 4Lz, Shoma a 4F3T instead of the 4T3T. Both would mean they'd have a higher BV than Patrick, even if Patrick introduces the 4F and puts 2 of his jumping passes in the 2nd half as well - so they could basically still end up "un-catchable" for Patrick in BV, additionally to them having known layouts already that are higher than most of that Patrick could put out, outside of the absolute highest upgrade version with a lot of unknown factors (adding 4F, quad in the 2nd half of the SP, 3A in the 2nd half of the SP....)
As for Javi, it is very unlikely, but he has talked about maybe going for the 4Lo. It would be a big risk to go for it in the SP as well (and 2017 WC SP IMO says he wouldn't need it), but he might do it. At least Javi seems to have trained the 4Lo more regularely than Patrick the 4F (ditto for Yuzu and the 4Lz).

Bottom line: if Patrick goes for that 2nd quad, he will get a lot closer in BV, and he is a medal contender - even for the OGM - anyway thanks to overall quality. The specific thought of him overtaking Yuzu or Shoma on BV though... seems very, very unlikely.

 

[Interspectator]

This thread is ALL about thinking about, speculating about and discussing chances, layout, match-ups and general speculating about the coming season. Otherwise, we could all just wait for the skating to start and say nothing. It's like a fantasy figure skating game we can play till stuff starts to happen for real.

My personal guess about chances for the Olympic podium is

Podium favorites: Yuzuru Hanyu, Shoma Uno, Boyang Jin, Nathan Chen these guys have the most momentum from last season
Podium threats: Javier Fernandez, Patrick Chan these guys could easily make the podium but have lost a little momentum from the previous season, however, if they can find the balance between their technical upgrades and jump stability, they can win it, even if their odds are slightly longer.
Dark horses: Mikhail Kolyada, Vincent Zhou, Jason Brown, Joshua Farris, Maxim Kovtun, Takahito Mura, -and more.

 

[karne]

isn't there that olympic games curse thing where whoever wins OGM won bronze in their first worlds? hello boyang....

Oh my goodness, I would love to see Boyang win. Not just because he's a fabulous little skater, but because the ensuing freakouts, meltdowns and implosions here would be spectacular...

Dark horses: Mikhail Kolyada, Vincent Zhou, Jason Brown, Joshua Farris, Maxim Kovtun, Takahito Mura, -and more.

*patent-pending evilkarneglare* If you were going to name a bunch of the American men, then you forgot someone, Specs...

 

[Interspectator]

Oh my goodness, I would love to see Boyang win. Not just because he's a fabulous little skater, but because the ensuing freakouts, meltdowns and implosions here would be spectacular...



*patent-pending evilkarneglare* If you were going to name a bunch of the American men, then you forgot someone, Specs...

There was the 'and more' there cause I was sure to miss some one Really though, I did miss a bunch of guys off this list. Denis Ten, for instance has dropped off my lists entirely, but he may prove me terribly wrong. He's just not on my radar at the moment.
Max (who I assume you have on your list) could also be a surprise podium placer on the GP series and other competitions, but I just don't feel like he's in the dark horse territory for the Olympic podium because of his previous season.
I admit though, that Joshua Farris is on my Dark Horse list from sheer sentiment and hope. So I'm not purely logical about this.