Men OGM Contenders 2018

[MaiKatze]

This thread is ALL about thinking about, speculating about and discussing chances, layout, match-ups and general speculating about the coming season. Otherwise, we could all just wait for the skating to start and say nothing. It's like a fantasy figure skating game we can play till stuff starts to happen for real.

My personal guess about chances for the Olympic podium is

Podium favorites: Yuzuru Hanyu, Shoma Uno, Boyang Jin, Nathan Chen these guys have the most momentum from last season
Podium threats: Javier Fernandez, Patrick Chan these guys could easily make the podium but have lost a little momentum from the previous season, however, if they can find the balance between their technical upgrades and jump stability, they can win it, even if their odds are slightly longer.
Dark horses: Mikhail Kolyada, Vincent Zhou, Jason Brown, Joshua Farris, Maxim Kovtun, Takahito Mura, -and more.

You're positive he's going then? Are there any interesting youngsters coming from juniors this season? Yamamoto still injured? My money is also on Mura, but what about Daisuke Murakami? Is Tanaka done? He was disappointing at 4CC/Worlds but it's not like Mura had a stellar season.

 

[Interspectator]

You're positive he's going then? Are there any interesting youngsters coming from juniors this season? Yamamoto still injured? My money is also on Mura, but what about Daisuke Murakami? Is Tanaka done? He was disappointing at 4CC/Worlds but it's not like Mura had a stellar season.

Daisuke Murakami or Tanaka Keiji or Mura. I chose Mura because he's my sentimental favorite of the 3. But I like them all, and they get similar scores and evaluations from the judges.

 

[Tutto]

Podium favorites: Yuzuru Hanyu, Shoma Uno, Boyang Jin, Nathan Chen these guys have the most momentum from last season
Podium threats: Javier Fernandez, Patrick Chan these guys could easily make the podium but have lost a little momentum from the previous season, however, if they can find the balance between their technical upgrades and jump stability, they can win it, even if their odds are slightly longer.
Dark horses: Mikhail Kolyada, Vincent Zhou, Jason Brown, Joshua Farris, Maxim Kovtun, Takahito Mura, -and more.

My guess is that two of the three medals (in no particular order) will go to the favourites and the third will be a total surprise

 

[4everchan]

You're the one who 'started' that though by comparing his BV to that of the other guys and saying his BV would be higher than/equal to Javis, Yuzus and Shomas (so assigning all of them BVs already as well). Thing is, we don't have any 100% set layout for any of them, but it's very likely Patrick won't have a higher BV than Yuzu & Shoma. While both have already introduced upgrades to their BV by putting their quad combos in the second half, they might still upgrade more - Yuzu might bring the 4Lz, Shoma a 4F3T instead of the 4T3T. Both would mean they'd have a higher BV than Patrick, even if Patrick introduces the 4F and puts 2 of his jumping passes in the 2nd half as well - so they could basically still end up "un-catchable" for Patrick in BV, additionally to them having known layouts already that are higher than most of that Patrick could put out, outside of the absolute highest upgrade version with a lot of unknown factors (adding 4F, quad in the 2nd half of the SP, 3A in the 2nd half of the SP....)
As for Javi, it is very unlikely, but he has talked about maybe going for the 4Lo. It would be a big risk to go for it in the SP as well (and 2017 WC SP IMO says he wouldn't need it), but he might do it. At least Javi seems to have trained the 4Lo more regularely than Patrick the 4F (ditto for Yuzu and the 4Lz).

Bottom line: if Patrick goes for that 2nd quad, he will get a lot closer in BV, and he is a medal contender - even for the OGM - anyway thanks to overall quality. The specific thought of him overtaking Yuzu or Shoma on BV though... seems very, very unlikely.

of course, i am guilty of sharing news that Patrick is indeed working on a new quad. :scard7:

even if i have mentioned BVs, I simply said that he was planning to do two quads SP this year, and now, if he were to use a new 4f, he would be closer to the other guys., or surprisingly higher than some of the top 6... for the guy who was way below everyone else last year, with one quad SP that's quite interesting to notice don't you think? .. that's all...
However, my point remains the same : some skaters have announced their layouts, and Patrick is far from it, so deciding the order of his jumping passes in looking at BV is a bit much... i didn't go that far as to do maths and so on.... my comment to the other poster is simply that if we can of course speculate about BVs, and if we can say, well, it looks like Patrick may no longer be the lowest in BV among the top 6, is that it is still too soon to start going into details.

I went with a global common not with a detailed analysis... and that's the difference here... I believe we can make general comments, while looking at layouts and second half passes and so on, which may be possible for some skaters is not for others. My comment came from the fact that Patrick's upgrade had been taken for granted but as far as we know, he could still go back to a one quad SP.... Patrick is not the kind of skater who just, mid season, learns new quads and includes them in programs like Shoma or Nathan. That was my entire point. Sorry if I didn't clarify enough. :scratch: I thought I was pretty clear.

YMMV

 

[xeyra]

I know BV talk is useless but I've done the math on the planned layouts for the SP for next season so I wanted to see how Patrick with the 4F in the SP, if he did bring it, would stack up.

*Nathan CHEN: 4Lz3T 4F // 3A BV: 53.15 (0.00)
*Boyang JIN: 4Lz3T 3A // 4T BV: 51.33 (0.00)
Shoma UNO: 4F // 4T3T 3A | BV: 51.31 (1.46)
Yuzuru HANYU: 4Lo // 3A 4T3T | BV: 51.01 (1.35)
Patrick CHAN: 4T3T 4S // 3A | BV: 48.05 (4.75) OR 4T3T 4F // 3A BV: 49.85 (6.55)
*Javier FERNÁNDEZ: 4T3T 4S // 3A | BV: 47.75 (0.00)

Number in parenthesis is the BV difference against last season's SP layout.
*No information on upgrades yet.

Well, since we can't be sure of anyone's layouts, and it's off season, I just threw the kitchen sink at it. I think I didn't do any mistakes (though I did earlier on Boyang's but have corrected it).

ALTERNATIVE LAYOUTS

Boyang JIN
4Lz3T 3A // 4S | BV: 51.55
4Lz3T // 3A 4T | BV: 52.18
4Lz3T // 3A 4S | BV: 52.40
4Lz // 4T3T 3A | BV: 52.61

Javier FERNÁNDEZ
4T3T // 4S 3A | BV: 48.80
4S // 4T3T 3A | BV: 49.21
4T // 4S3T 3A | BV: 49.23
4Lo 4T3T // 3A | BV: 49.25
4Lo 4S3T // 3A | BV: 49.45
4Lo // 4T3T 3A | BV: 50.71
4Lo // 4S3T 3A | BV: 50.93

Patrick CHAN
4T3T 3A // 4S | BV: 48.25
4F3T 3A // 4T | BV: 50.03
4T3T 3A // 4F | BV: 50.23
4F3T 3A // 4S | BV: 50.25
4F 3A // 4T3T | BV: 50.46
4T3T // 4F 3A | BV: 51.08

Shoma UNO
4Lo // 4F3T 3A | BV: 53.21

Yuzuru HANYU
4Lz // 3A 4T3T | BV: 52.61

Nathan CHEN
4Lz3T // 4F 3A | BV: 54.38

I won't touch FS layouts for now. Eek.

As a personal note, I think the SP is where we'll see the least change and risk. Not when the BV differences are minimal (Due to the limited layout, SP BV differences can only vary in about 5-8 points when you enter 2-quad territory but FS ranges can involve 15+ points) and a clean SP with known jumps, great GOEs and high PCS can yield you better results going into the FS. SP score differences will never vary too much when clean compared to FS scores.

 

[MaiKatze]

My guess is that two of the three medals (in no particular order) will go to the favourites and the third will be a total surprise

The question is, who would you consider a total suprise? One of them Dark Horses of Interspectator, I guess. The only one I could see make it on the podium is a totally clean Jason Brown that landed a quad. There are six men, imho, that will work out the medals between them. I don't think it'll be the year of the darkhorses, or surprises.

 

[xeyra]

The question is, who would you consider a total suprise? One of them Dark Horses of Interspectator, I guess. The only one I could see make it on the podium is a totally clean Jason Brown that landed a quad. There are six men, imho, that will work out the medals between them. I don't think it'll be the year of the darkhorses, or surprises.

Mikhail Kolyada with his planned 4Lz in SP and FS could maybe threaten the podium. I think he's the only one who could have BV and possibly PCS to be competitive if he went absolutely clean. But this would also require 4 of the Top 6 men to somehow bomb their way out of a medal, given their scoring averages.

 

[Violet Bliss]

The one thing I'm absolutely sure of about the next Mens OGM is that it won't be a guadless champion.

 

[MaiKatze]

Mikhail Kolyada with his planned 4Lz in SP and FS could maybe threaten the podium. I think he's the only one who could have BV and possibly PCS to be competitive if he went absolutely clean. But this would also require 4 of the Top 6 men to somehow bomb their way out of a medal, given their scoring averages.

Oh yeah, Kolyada has potential, but he isn't consistent enough. And his PCS aren't as good as Jason Browns. Of course, there could be a Sochi repeat of some losing their nerves, zayaking etc. There were plenty of medal candidates in Sochi, too. Machida, Takahashi, Fernandez...I still think the situation is different this time. It's not as easy to catch up and like you said, four men need to bomb! Not only make one or two mistakes, but really crumble. I just don't see that happening. One perhaps, two maybe, but four? No.

 

[xeyra]

Oh yeah, Kolyada has potential, but he isn't consistent enough. And his PCS aren't as good as Jason Browns. Of course, there could be a Sochi repeat of some losing their nerves, zayaking etc. There were plenty of medal candidates in Sochi, too. Machida, Takahashi, Fernandez...I still think the situation is different this time. It's not as easy to catch up and like you said, four men need to bomb! Not only make one or two mistakes, but really crumble. I just don't see that happening. One perhaps, two maybe, but four? No.

Who is!?

 

[SnowWhite]

I know BV talk is useless but I've done the math on the planned layouts for the SP for next season so I wanted to see how Patrick with the 4F in the SP, if he did bring it, would stack up.

*Nathan CHEN: 4Lz3T 4F // 3A BV: 53.15 (0.00)
*Boyang JIN: 4Lz3T 3A // 4T BV: 51.33 (0.00)
Shoma UNO: 4F // 4T3T 3A | BV: 51.31 (1.46)
Yuzuru HANYU: 4Lo // 3A 4T3T | BV: 51.01 (1.35)
Patrick CHAN: 4T3T 4S // 3A | BV: 48.05 (4.75) OR 4T3T 4F // 3A BV: 49.85 (6.55)
*Javier FERNÁNDEZ: 4T3T 4S // 3A | BV: 47.75 (0.00)

Number in parenthesis is the BV difference against last season's SP layout.
*No information on upgrades yet.

For Patrick, just bringing in the 4S would already be an almost 5 point jump from his previous layout! With a 4F in his SP, that would be 6.55 points.

Edit: I forgot to add that, as can be seen, the power of backloading a combo is still very strong for a BV.

Maybe I'm missing something, but why does 4T3T 4S // 3A gives Patrick 48.05 in BV and Javi 47.75 in BV?

 

[MaiKatze]

The one thing I'm absolutely sure of about the next Mens OGM is that it won't be a guadless champion.

The 2018 Olympic Games, subtitle choices.

"The days of Vancouver are really and truly over"
"Real men jump 7 quads...anything less and it's Ladies skating"

 

[xeyra]

Maybe I'm missing something, but why does 4T3T 4S // 3A gives Patrick 48.05 in BV and Javi 47.75 in BV?

Spins. Javi uses a FUSp that is lower BV than most spins others use. Unless Javi changes that for next season.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Follow up question on my last post: Will there ever be a quadless Mens medalist at the Olympics? Even Worlds?

 

[xeyra]

Follow up question on my last post: Will there ever be a quadless Mens medalist at the Olympics? Even Worlds?

I'm afraid maybe only in very, very dire circumstances for all the other men with higher scoring potential... *knocks on wood*

Small medals in the SP are not completely out of the possibility, as we can see with Jason Brown SP's scoring potential, but that would require a lot of popping and +COMBO happening to top men.

 

[icybear]

I just hope that everyone is scored fairly. That way I'll be happy with whatever the results is.

 

[4everchan]

I just hope that everyone is scored fairly. That way I'll be happy with whatever the results is.

I hope so too... but what is fairly????
IMHO, Patrick is clearly supposed to be ahead of others in PCS and even when he skates flawlessly like in the SP at worlds, he scored less PCS than Javi, pretty much the same as Yuzuru who had a major combo misfiring and of course, he was barely above Shoma and a bit above the other but the difference he can create to his advantage in PCS is not even equivalent to a 2 axel... while nowadays, a guy can just throw in a quad and well game over

so, in light of that, I am leaving the judges out of this : i simply hope that the winner will be someone who can skate two wonderful programs so he can enjoy his gold medal .

 

[mrrice]

Follow up question on my last post: Will there ever be a quadless Mens medalist at the Olympics? Even Worlds?

Oh Violet...I certainly hope not. For that to happen, several of the top skaters would have to BOMB and bomb big. Jason is a great skater, dancer, and performer. However, having seen him live "several" times, I can tell you that a clean Joshua Farris deserves a higher TES score. IMO, they are very close when it comes to performance quality. Joshua has a more subtle style but, it's quite powerful in person. Is there another quadless skater who is in contention? I can't imagine a skater who can win their respective Nationals without one in this day and age.

SnowWhites list has six skaters on it and they ALL have quads. I know Mikhail has a quad and so do several other Top skaters who are not listed. Hanyu, Patrick, Jin Boyang, and Javi can all perform as well as Jason and without a quad, I can't see him defeating any of them.

 

[Tavi...]

Oh Violet...I certainly hope not. For that to happen, several of the top skaters would have to BOMB and bomb big. Jason is a great skater, dancer, and performer. However, having seen him live "several" times, I can tell you that a clean Joshua Farris leaves Jason in the dust. Is there another quadless skater who is in contention? I can't imagine a skater who can win their respective Nationals without one in this day and age.

SnowWhites list has six skaters on it and they ALL have quads. I know Mikhail has a quad and so do several other Top skaters. Hanyu, Patrick, Jin Boyang, and Javi can all perform as well as Jason and without a quad, I can't see him defeating any of them.

Umm, mrrice, when was the last time you saw Jason and Josh skate live? 2010 or 2011, maybe? Because it's 2017 now, and Jason and Josh haven't been juniors for four years. Quite frankly, it seems like you dont realize that things have changed.

 

[mrrice]

Umm, mrrice, when was the last time you saw Jason and Josh skate live? 2010 or 2011, maybe? Because it's 2017 now, and Jason and Josh haven't been juniors for four years. Quite frankly, it seems like you dont realize that things have changed.

Look....I'm old OK.. But yes, it was in fact, 2011 that I saw them live. However, I've seen them on TV several times. I love Jason and if he can land a quad in each program, I'm all for him being 7th. I am not however, ready to see him defeat any of the top 6 at Worlds. In fact, I'm not ready to see him defeat a clean Adam Rippon unless he lands a quad in each of his programs.