No 3/3 for Kwan or Cohen

[Ogre Mage]

Based on reports, Michelle and Sasha will proabably NOT be attempting a 3/3 at worlds. This of course increases the chance that they will skate clean, but it brings down their degree of difficulty somewhat. Presumably, it means that both are more focused on delivering a high-quality, well rounded performance instead of pulling off the big tricks.

What does this mean for the rest of the field? Discuss.

 

[yelyoh]

Well it might depend on how influenced the judges are by the impending use of the COP. Even though it is not going to be in effect for this competition, the utter importance of jump content might be diminished as judges place a bit more weight on the other elements in the programs (with one eye cast towards the COP). In that case, both Sasha's and Michelle's other strengths could counterbalance the relative lack of jump content. Of course, the other ladies would have to deliver on the jumps.

I also think another factor could be the qualifying round groups.
Last year, Sasha was in a more competitive QR group than Fumie. She had a good skate but finished third. Fumie was in a weaker group, had a mediocre skate, but wound up in a better position going into the SP. Overall, I thought Sasha had a slightly better competiton than Fumie but wound up behind her.

If some skater (Ando, Kostner, Arakawa) has three great skates jam packed with 3/3 combos and sells the rest of the program, then MK could wind up having to settle for less than gold and Sasha might once again find herself shy of the podium.

I do think there is room for a big upset. I can also imagine a scenario in which there was not one US lady on the podium.

I for one am not a jumpoholic so I could care less about the lack of 3/3s, but I'm not judging.

Oh gee, I forgot to mention luck in the random selections of the computer.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Based on reports, Michelle and Sasha will proabably NOT be attempting a 3/3 at worlds. This of course increases the chance that they will skate clean, but it brings down their degree of difficulty somewhat. Presumably, it means that both are more focused on delivering a high-quality, well rounded performance instead of pulling off the big tricks.

What does this mean for the rest of the field? Discuss.

It means that the posters who complain incessantly that MK has no 3x3s will have to come up with another 'lack of technical skill' nitpick. Both MK and Sasha have a high degree of presentation. Is it enough? We'll soon see.

We haven't seen Miki, and we know Fumie does have 3x3s and are consistent, and Shizuka with her 3x3 and stunning presentation, the Ladies are HOT for gold. Especially if most of the judges are looking for high degree of technical achievement.

Irina could be a threat if she has her act back together. With Shizuka, MK and Sasha and their fabulous presentations, Elena (both of them) will be left behind with their technical prowess because the presentation won't 'sing' as Uncle Dick will say.

Jenny and Julia will be waiting in the wings for any mistakes by the top contenders.

The above is just my take on the Ladies.

Joe

 

[Fossi]

I also think another factor could be the qualifying round groups.
Last year, Sasha was in a more competitive QR group than Fumie. She had a good skate but finished third. Fumie was in a weaker group, had a mediocre skate, but wound up in a better position going into the SP. Overall, I thought Sasha had a slightly better competiton than Fumie but wound up behind her.
.

Sasha needed a clean short program. She failed to do this. She had just as good a shot as Fumie but didn't capitalize on it. It was not only the QR that "hurt" Sasha. She didn't skate "clean" in any portion of Worlds '03.
I am thinking Arakawa has a great shot at this title. She has the 3/3's and good presentation. If Kwan or Cohen faulter, I think that we may be in for an upset IF Arakawa skates clean. With TT's influence, she might do that.
I agree, all the harping on Michelle Kwan about the 3/3's got annoying when only a few skaters can do it consistently. Sarah and Tara are the only ones I know that did them consistently.

 

[Mathman]

Interesting speculation, Yelyoh, about whether the CoP will cast its shadow over the judging.

WOW, what a contest this is going to be (I hope). It would be a shame if after all this buildup only one competitor skates well and wins by default.

Mathman

 

[wvgal57]

Elena Sokolova, I keep saying -- watch out for her! She's hungry, she's mad, she's got a sharp, neat, well choreographed short program and sells the double heck out of it. With her consistency with her 3lutz/3toe she may very well do one in the short program. Also, I think the judges are going to be looking for good lutzes...Elena's is done on a deep back outside edge as is Arakawa's.

Elena has actually landed more 3/3's since Olympic year than anyone else - she's taking over the Queen of 3/3 mantle. She's also landing 3loop/3loop.

 

[ouridol]

I think that as long as these two ladies skate clean--a 3/3 is not nessecary for them. of course, I would like to see one, but as of right now they are definently the 2 'cheif' competitors. I am just hoping for great, clean skates from all the competitors

 

[sarahmistral]

I for one am all for seeing the technical ante upped--especially when CoP might forever diminish the importance of the added difficulty in doing 3/3s--but I would hardly call six to seven triple jump programs "lack of jump content"...striking the delicate balance between flow, edging, and interesting choreography on the one hand and high, clean jumps on the other, to me, that's the heart of the matter..i think, well, basically the obvious--that the jumps must flow with the rest of the program and that the whole must add up to a superior program, and of course, we can't forget how the program is performed on the particular night...it's shaping up to be a monstrously exciting competition, and ITA with Mathman about hoping there won't be a champion crowned by default as the sole survivor of a splatfest (this being figure skating, not reality tv--one would hope, anyway). Drat...I had something else to add to that, but I seem to have forgotten it, so I'll end this here mid-20s and getting senile already

Sarah

BTW, Fossi, did you actually say that Arakawa is training with Tatiana Tarasova, or did I misunderstand? If I didn't, BOY am I behind the times

 

[alain707]

Based on reports, Michelle and Sasha will proabably NOT be attempting a 3/3 at worlds.

For me this piece of news is disappointing when more and more of the ladies are increasing their technical difficulties. How many 3-3s will we see in the short ? I don't think Kostner, Sokolova, Arakawa, Ando and will leave their 3-3 combo at home before skating. We are bound to see even more in the long. I fancy more Mikki Ando's attitude when she says about her performance at Jr Worlds: “The quadruple Salchow wasn't important for this competition, but it was important for the future. It was important for me personally to try it.”
Kwan and Cohen are playing conservative being aware that they have an edge over most of the field regarding presentation. Especially for Sasha isn't it a bit shortsighted ? IMO they are not safe from an upset. Provided of course that the judges judge what they see and not what they know from past competitins. Truely it's been enough in the last decade to put up a clean program without a 3-3 combo to win the title, but times might be changing now.

 

[jesslily]

Maybe both Sasha and Michelle and their coaches have realized how important to put 3/3 in their programs. But they are not best strong jumpers comparing with Miki Ando, Arakawa, and a few others. And maybe the 3/3s can not be landed everyday in Cohen and kwan's practice. So they have to depend on their artistry to make marks.

 

[equestrianguy]

I have to say I DO NOT watch figure skating to watch a jump off! Yes, I understand that in skating that there must be a jump requirement for competition, but leave it at that.. Especially, for the ladies.. I do enjoy watching the men do the quads and BIG combinations, but thats not why I enjoy the ladies.. They are ladies.. They should be graceful..NOT jumping beans.. I enjoy the ladies for their interpretation of music, spirals, laybacks, interesting flexibility, expression...NOT how many jumps they can do.. I would be happy if they were just restricted to 4-5 jumps in the long programs.. Then we could enjoy the music and overall program.....not waiting to see if they fall or not.. Anyway, thats my two cents! lol .......................Peace

 

[yelyoh]

Saramistral,
I wrote "relative lack of jump content." If Ando does a quad sal and a 3/3 combo and four additional triples and Michelle does a 6 triple program, Ando could be given the nod by the majority of judges. I was not implying that a 6 triple program is devoid of jump content; that is why I used the word "relative." Having said that, I doubt that Ando will accomplish that.
yelyoh

 

[Fossi]

I agree the programs should be balanced and the skater should have great presentation and artistry.
Irina was jumping all over the place early in her career, but the judges sent her a message: work on your presentation. So she improved it, it wasn't perfect, but it was good.
Tara was a jumping bean with good presentation.
Sarah worked hard on her presentation. She had consistent 3/3's and great presentation.
Skating isn't all jumping. It's a combination of everything.
I would love to see the 3/3's, but I know they're hard. Sarah had an injury after all the 3/3's. So did Tara. It's not an easy thing to do.
If Ando wins, I will be happy for her. I just want great skating that will knock my socks off!
I think Arakawa will win though. She has great presentation and consistent 3/3's to boot. If there's a darkhorse....let it be her!