Olympic Ladies: some stats

[yoloaxel]

If you love stats like me, this is for you I've indicated the total score season average (taken from skatingscores.com), SB and PB, along with some other interesting numbers. It's gonna be a ride!

Evgenia Medvedeva
SAvg: 228.82
SB: 232.86
PB: 241.31

Alina Zagitova
SAvg: 221.54
SB: 238.24
PB: 238.24

Satoko Miyahara
SAvg: 206.58
SB: 214.03
PB: 218.33

Maria Sotskova
SAvg: 204.74
SB: 216.28
PB: 216.28

Carolina Kostner
SAvg: 206.54
SB: 215.98
PB: 216.73

Kaori Sakamoto
SAvg: 196.98
SB: 214.21
PB: 214.21

Kaetlyn Osmond
SAvg: 213.10
SB: 217.55
PB: 218.13

Gabrielle Daleman
SAvg: 186.93
SB: 196.83
PB: 213.52

Bradie Tennell
SAvg: 200.40
SB: 204.10
PB: 204.10

Mirai Nagasu
SAvg: 185.42
SB: 194.46
PB: 194.95

Karen Chen
SAvg: 178.51
SB: 182.80
PB: 199.29

Highest Average GOE:

Evgenia Medvedeva: 1.09
Alina Zagitova: 1.00
Kaetlyn Osmond: 0.94

Highest Average PCS:

Evgenia Medvedeva: 9.45
Carolina Kostner: 9.26
Kaetlyn Osmond: 8.92

Highest Average BV in SP:

Alina Zagitova: 34.24
Evgenia Medvedeva: 33.10
Mirai Nagasu: 32.82

Highest Average BV in FS

Alina Zagitova: 65.61
Bradie Tennell: 62.77
Evgenia Medvedeva: 62.21

 

[Nathan13]

Bradie Tennell: 62.77

:eeking:

I really think people are going to be surprised at how high she places at the Olympics.

Thank you for the numbers!

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Can’t believe Karen has never surpassed the 200pts barrier.

#OlympicGoalz

 

[Mathman]

This emphasizes how far ahead of the the pack Medvedeva and Zagitova are. The winning total for Olympic gold will probably be 230.

 

[Scout]

This emphasizes how far ahead of the the pack Medvedeva and Zagitova are. The winning total for Olympic gold will probably be 230.

Possibly higher than 230, given Olympic inflation and that both Med and Zag have been close or above 240.

 

[mrrice]

:eeking:

I really think people are going to be surprised at how high she places at the Olympics.

Thank you for the numbers!

I won't be surprised if Bradie finishes in the top 6 but, I don't think she'll be in the final flight. I think she'll move up from 7th or 8th with a strong Free Program like she did at Nationals. All 3 of the Russian ladies have stronger SP's and so do Gabby, Kaetlyn, and Carolina. I have realistic expectations and I will be thrilled if we have 2 skaters in the top 10. Karen was 4th a year ago but, for some reason, I just don't like her programs this season.

 

[truthbooth]

I did not realize how close Kaori Sakamoto is in SB to Kostner/Osmond/Sotskova. It'd be something if she snags the bronze. Even making it to PyeongChang seemed very unlikely for her just three months ago.

 

[Shayuki]

I did not realize how close Kaori Sakamoto is in SB to Kostner/Osmond/Sotskova. It'd be something if she snags the bronze. Even making it to PyeongChang seemed very unlikely for her just three months ago.

Yes. In addition, both of these ladies have been very inconsistent whereas Kaori's been quite consistent with clean skates lately and her scores have an upward momentum. It'd be very interesting if she actually won bronze, that's for sure.


Another interesting thing to note is that Wakaba Higuchi's SB is #3 in the world but she's not even skating at the Olympics.

 

[Lamente Ariane]

To be fair, Wakaba got that #3 score at Lombardia Trophy where pretty much everybody was overscored.

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Can’t believe Karen has never surpassed the 200pts barrier.

#OlympicGoalz

That's because she has. Just the once, though, at last season's Nationals:

Date	Competition	Level	SP	FS	Total
			Pos	Score	Pos	Score	Pos	Score
14–22 Jan. 2017	U.S. Championships	Senior	1	72.82	1	141.40	1	214.22

The whole record-keeping thing in figure skating is a mess, what with the way that the governing body (the ISU) only recognises certain competitions. And it makes compiling statistics a complete nightmare.

Scores are scores. It should be the case that ALL scores are recognised by the governing body (Provided the competition is run to ISU rules, of course). But, it isn’t.

And it is going to continue to be a nightmare until the ISU changes their approach to recognising scores. Which they won’t.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[ice coverage]

.... Scores are scores. It should be the case that ALL scores are recognised by the governing body (Provided the competition is run to ISU rules, of course). ...

Given that the judges at Nationals are not required to meet ISU standards for judges, I don't see why the ISU should be expected to recognize the scores at Nationals.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Given that the judges at Nationals are not required to meet ISU standards for judges, I don't see why the ISU should be expected to recognize the scores at Nationals.

It would be nice to see an ISU referee though and establish a corridor and oversee the panel. Nationals scores are often unrealistic and when the judges and coaches are even more closely involved with each other there is even more potential for favoritism. I don’t think it’s just my opinion either.

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Given that the judges at Nationals are not required to meet ISU standards for judges, I don't see why the ISU should be expected to recognize the scores at Nationals.

I can see your point, and I do agree with it.

But, why is this even the case? It SHOULD be a requirement that judges at Nationals meet ISU Standards.

Apart from anything else, it would give the ISU a bigger pool of judges to be able to call upon for judging at international competitions. Because we do tend to see the same faces popping up again and again. And if one of them turns out to be a bad egg, using them frequently can cause all sorts of problems down the line.

Another option would be to have an ISU representative on site to oversee the competition. Just thinking about how the Guinness Book Of Records sends out people to oversee record attempts in order for them to be recognised.

This latter option would not be practical in the long term, because it would be costly to send representatives out to every single competition. But it could be used as a stop gap in the short term until more judges reach the ISU standards.

Those are just my thoughts. But, thank you for giving me the opportunity to raise them.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[Nathan13]

I won't be surprised if Bradie finishes in the top 6 but, I don't think she'll be in the final flight. I think she'll move up from 7th or 8th with a strong Free Program like she did at Nationals. All 3 of the Russian ladies have stronger SP's and so do Gabby, Kaetlyn, and Carolina. I have realistic expectations and I will be thrilled if we have 2 skaters in the top 10. Karen was 4th a year ago but, for some reason, I just don't like her programs this season.

I have her 4th in my predictions.

Her PB is 67, without inflation from being #1 US Lady. I don't think 70-71 is out of the question. I don't think placing ahead of any of the top ladies is out of the question in the short if one makes mistakes. We can be hypothetical and say *if they all go clean she won't even be in the top 8* but I've yet to see a competition where the expected result was the final result because everyone skated their planned content perfectly :confused2:

Also, Karen has both the same programs as last year, so I don't know that they are really going to factor much into where she will place. Although I sort of liked her Carmen, I am glad she went back to On Golden Pond for the short because it has the potential to be a wonderful Olympic moment.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Her PB is 67, without inflation from being #1 US Lady. I don't think 70-71 is out of the question. I don't think placing ahead of any of the top ladies is out of the question in the short if one makes mistakes. We can be hypothetical and say *if they all go clean she won't even be in the top 8* but I've yet to see a competition where the expected result was the final result because everyone skated their planned content perfectly

Yeah, I am definitely bullish on Bradie, not for an individual medal but for a strong placement. She went into SA with no name recognition but is going to the Olympics as the US National Champion. The judges will also get at least one more look at her in the Team event. A low 70s SP is not out of the question, and could put her in the final group for the LP.

 

[Miss Ice]

This emphasizes how far ahead of the the pack Medvedeva and Zagitova are. The winning total for Olympic gold will probably be 230.

Yeah, with no actual change/improvement to what they were putting out while getting in the 220's. (And in the case of Zagitova, even in the 200's/210's or whatever it was last season).

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Yeah, with no actual change/improvement to what they were putting out while getting in the 220's. (And in the case of Zagitova, even in the 200's/210's or whatever it was last season).

I think Alina's rise is due to her closeness to Evgenia's technical (and arguably performance) level. Alina getting low 60s and Evgenia getting mid 70s in PCS is acceptable when they are competing in different divisions, but when they compete head-to-head, those scores have to reflect what they put on the ice that day, not what they earned in previous seasons.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

I found and did some more data about ladies scores, which also including the prediction of most possible skaters placements at olympics based on those scores. I thought i should post that in the Olympic tread, but i can post it here if people are thinking is more accessible place to read it

 

[Nathan13]

I found and did some more data about ladies scores, which also including the prediction of most possible skaters placements at olympics based on those scores. I thought i should post that in the Olympic tread, but i can post it here if people are thinking is more accessible place to read it

please share here!

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

To be fair, Wakaba got that #3 score at Lombardia Trophy where pretty much everybody was overscored.

To be fair Wakaba has one of the absolute best programs this season