Olympic Ladies: some stats

[Osmond4gold]

To be fair, best to omit all stats received in home country comps. In an Olympic year with nations wishing to promote their own regardless of the skate, neutral nation results are much more a reflection of the current state of ladies skating elite, than those achieved on home soil.

For the record the last time the Top competed in head to head comp. (minus Medv), the results were within 10 points from Gold to 5th place (see below).
GPF Ladies - Final Results

1. Alina ZAGITOVA RUS 2 1 223.30
2. Maria SOTSKOVA RUS 4 2 216.28
3. Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN 1 5 215.16
4. Carolina KOSTNER ITA 6 3 214.65
5. Satoko MIYAHARA JPN 3 4 213.49

Also, NA elite women have one less comp. result as they did not compete at 4CC's due to timing/distance travel, just weeks before the OG. Not to mention that Europeans occurred in Moscow, and results are included in the stats. That comp. as many here have suggested, was a bit of a love in, and drivers of best season scores for some. Just saying

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Yeah, i included international competitions only. Osmond stats and predictions based on those stats are really really good comparing to the others, so dont be afraid I will post it tommorow tho

 

[YesWay]

To be fair Wakaba has one of the absolute best programs this season

Two of the best, actually ;-D

It's a global tragedy, that they will not be seen at the Olympics, by the millions of "once every four years" viewers... they're the kind of programs and delivery, that could entice people into following figure skating...

 

[Baron Vladimir]

This data is based on the scores skaters (mostly) got this season in international competitons, such as Challenger and Grand Prix series and Euro/4CC. It includes average scores, range of scores and prediction on Olympic placements based on those range of scores. Average score is (mostly) based on this season scores. Range of scores is based on possible minimum and maximum scores skaters may got this season (meaning that minimum and maximum possible scores are made by any minimal or maximum TES or PCS mark skaters got across all the international competitions they were involved in this season). Predictions on Olympic placement include range of possible skaters placement based on minimum possible and maximum possible skaters scores of this season. Skaters who are medal contenders are ranked by their average score and they have detailed stats of their scores presented. Possible top 10 finishers (which icludes some of possible top 5 finishers) are ranked by possible placements they may got at Olympic and detailed stats are not presented in their scores analyses..(deductions for falls are not included in this data).. Be free to ask if you need some explanations

LADIES:

Medal contenders:

1. Medvedeva (OAR)
Average score: 229.40
SP 79.92 (TES 41.94 PCS 37.88/9.36/9.37/9.56/9.46/9.60)
FP 149.48 (TES 74.00 PCS 75.48/9.40/9.34/9.41/9.49/9.54)
Range of scores: 221.76 - 235.55
Olympic placement: 1st - 4th

2. Zagitova (OAR)
Average score: 222.23
SP 72.66 (TES 39.43 PCS 33.23/8.23/8.13/8.36/8.43/8.39)
FP 149.57 (TES 79.36 PCS 70.21/8.66/8.58/8.98/8.80/8.86)
Range of scores: 206.56 - 238.33
Olympic placement: 1st - 7th

3. Osmond (CAN)
Average score: 214.13
SP 74.38 (TES 38.74 PCS 35.64/8.81/8.66/9.02/9.00/9.06)
FP 139.75 (TES 68.17 PCS 71.58/8.96/8.75/8.89/9.04/9.10)
Range of scores: 208.66 - 221.92
Olympic placement: 1st - 7th

4. Kostner (ITA)
Average score: 207.20
SP 73.41 (TES 36.23 PCS 37.18/9.14/9.09/9.33/9.42/9.50)
FP 133.79 (TES 60.08 PCS 73.71/9.17/9.05/9.19/9.29/9.37)
Range of scores: 191.40 - 222.26
Olympic placement: 1st - out of top 10

5. Myahara (JPN)
Average score: 206.88
SP 70.53 (TES 36.13 PCS 34.40/8.55/8.41/8.63/8.65/8.76)
FP 136.35 (TES 66.00 PCS 70.35/8.78/8.56/8.78/8.87/9.00)
Range of scores: 191.56 - 219.71
Olympic placement: 2nd - out of top 10

6. Sotskova (OAR)
Average score: 205.25
SP 69.07 (TES 36.41 PCS 32.66/8.20/7.94/8.26/8.18/8.25)
FP 136.18 (TES 68.74 PCS 67.44/8.45/8.14/8.55/8.47/8.54)
Range of scores: 192.29 - 216.49
Olympic placement: 2nd - out of top 10

7. Sakamoto (JPN)
Average score: 197.61
SP 66.73 (TES 36.88 PCS 29.85/7.63/7.38/7.48/7.62/7.50)
FP 130.88 (TES 66.78 PCS 64.10/8.00/7.79/8.04/8.14/8.09)
Range of scores: 171.12 - 214.24
Olympic placement: 2nd - out of top 10

Top 10 contenders:

8. Tennell (USA) 4th - 10th
9. Daleman (CAN) 4th - out of top 10
10. Tursynbaeva (KAZ) 4th - out of top 10
11. Nagasu (USA) 5th - out of top 10
12. Chen (USA) 8th - out of top 10
13. Choi (KOR) 9th - out of top 10
14. Hendrickx (BEL) 9th - out of top 10

 

[yoloaxel]

Wow, @BaronVladimir, thank you for these info!

What really makes me curious is how Zagitova has the potential to score so high (almost unbeatable imo) but has also scored some low SPs this season. Granted, her PCS are rising steadily, but I think she's probably the most unpredictable variable here.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Yeah, Kostner also. They have a really big range of possible scores. Sakamoto is hardly predictable too. It could be an interesting fight for the medals If Zagi finishes her short on pair (or very close) with Zhenya, then she will have more chances to win a gold, based on their scores in the free. Karo and Kaetlyn are very good SP skaters, so they could be in a very good position (to fight for the medals) before the free.

 

[macy]

I have this feeling that bradie may be a surprise to some at the Olympics...I just have this feeling she's going to place higher than some think. I mean, she didn't have a name for herself at all before skate America, and she pulled a bronze in her first GP ever and now is national champion. sky's the limit from here.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I have this feeling that bradie may be a surprise to some at the Olympics...I just have this feeling she's going to place higher than some think. I mean, she didn't have a name for herself at all before skate America, and she pulled a bronze in her first GP ever and now is national champion. sky's the limit from here.

It's not out of the question. A lot of the top contenders have technical issues that could cause problems when combined with Olympic pressure. I just wish Bradie had a few more international opportunities this season to get the upward scoring momentum we saw from Alina.

 

[Putina]

Bradie Tennell: 62.77

:eeking:


I really think people are going to be surprised at how high she places at the Olympics.

Thank you for the numbers!

I agree. I would say she will be on the podium if she skates like she did in the Nationals.

 

[Osmond4gold]

Baron Vladimir, I appreciate all the work you have put into the stats - thank you! As a reminder, as per my earlier post, both of the Russian ladies achieved their best ever scores at the recent Europeans held in Moscow, which gave a significant boost to previous best int'l scores/averages. Consider the following, as poster Puchi had pointed out on another Thread;

- Medvedeva's best non-Russian high score : 224.39 (NHK), on Russian soil (Euros) 232.86, difference 8.47 points

- Zagitova's best non-Russian high score: 223.30 (GPF) on Russian soil (Euros): 238.24, difference 14.97 points

At the end of the day stats are subjective and often open to influences of many factors. Where they count imho, is when ALL compete at the same event and are judged by the same panel, like a GP Final, an Olympics or a World champs.

 

[russianfan]

- Zagitova's best non-Russian high score: 223.30 (GPF) on Russian soil (Euros): 238.24, difference 14.97 points

but you also forgetting that at Europeans Alina was perfectly clean, which wasn't the case at GPF, and overall skated way better at Europeans.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

but you also forgetting that at Europeans Alina was perfectly clean, which wasn't the case at GPF, and overall skated way better at Europeans.

finally someone said it!

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

finally someone said it!

Didn’t DrivingMissDaisy not only already say it but pointed out that 9pts was in TES . May have been a different thread. That Turkish judge though :shocked:

 

[VenusHalley]

I predicts that Zagitova will have meltdown Yulia style, Medvedeva will fall and mess up a bit, Kostner will mess up too.

And somebody completely unexpected will win.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Didn’t DrivingMissDaisy not only already say it but pointed out that 9pts was in TES . May have been a different thread. That Turkish judge though :shocked:

oh yeah, true

also VenusHalley, does that not seem a bit morbid and unnecessary?!

 

[VenusHalley]

Well, Alina skated clean in both programs for first time even in Europeans and there is a similar media circus, Evgenia does not seems so secure in her skating (due to being off ice for some time... and losing her streak may cause some emotional upheaval - she will try too hard to proved herself, there are rumors of changing up her program and she is somewhat perfectionist)... and we know how Carolina is, as much as I love her. She had a good seasons and then the FS in Europeans happened. (though she seems to be able to fight for it more, it seems. Still).

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I predicts that Zagitova will have meltdown Yulia style, Medvedeva will fall and mess up a bit, Kostner will mess up too.

And somebody completely unexpected will win.

Evgenia wasn't her best at Euros, but she is tough and has performed brilliantly in high pressure situations, most notably skating perfectly right after Anna's meltdown at Worlds. She hasn't been as solid this season, in part due to injury, but if she regains her confidence she could easily claim the OGM. I'm interested to see if Evgenia moves some of her content to the 2nd half of the LP to close the TES gap with Alina, because the big PCS advantage Med had over her younger teammate has evaporated.

 

[tjb]

Baron Vladimir, I appreciate all the work you have put into the stats - thank you! As a reminder, as per my earlier post, both of the Russian ladies achieved their best ever scores at the recent Europeans held in Moscow, which gave a significant boost to previous best int'l scores/averages. Consider the following, as poster Puchi had pointed out on another Thread;

- Medvedeva's best non-Russian high score : 224.39 (NHK), on Russian soil (Euros) 232.86, difference 8.47 points

- Zagitova's best non-Russian high score: 223.30 (GPF) on Russian soil (Euros): 238.24, difference 14.97 points

At the end of the day stats are subjective and often open to influences of many factors. Where they count imho, is when ALL compete at the same event and are judged by the same panel, like a GP Final, an Olympics or a World champs.

in russia zhenya and alina had their best performances of the season. and the scores are reflecting it.
in the meantime in canada osmond had her worst performance of the season. and we all can see the scores

 

[Ziotic]

in russia zhenya and alina had their best performances of the season. and the scores are reflecting it.
in the meantime in canada osmond had her worst performance of the season. and we all can see the scores

Her highest score from Autumn classic was the one and only time I can recall her actually landing all 7 triples(although she singled an axel). So how is it her worst performance of the season??

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Her highest score from Autumn classic was the one and only time I can recall her actually landing all 7 triples(although she singled an axel). So how is it her worst performance of the season??

It took me a few moments the other day to figure out why she had a fall deduction and then I realized she fell during her choreography...right? Not on any element.

Probably not the best event to judge her scoring potential though...GPF is a pretty accurate read on how the judges view her.