Olympic Men, Pairs, Ice dance: some stats

[Baron Vladimir]

I have already put Ladies stats in 'Olympic Ladies: some stats' thread, and stats for the other Olympic figure skating disciplines will go here.
This data is based on the scores skaters got this season in international competitions, such as Challenger and Grand Prix series and Euro/4CC. It includes average scores, range of scores and prediction on Olympic placements based on those range of scores. Average score is (mostly) based on this season scores. Range of scores is based on possible minimum and maximum scores skaters may got this season (meaning that minimum and maximum possible scores are made by any minimal or maximum TES or PCS mark skaters got across all the international competitions they were involved in this season). Predictions on Olympic placement include range of possible skaters placement based on minimum possible and maximum possible skaters scores of this season. Skaters who are medal contenders are ranked by their average score and they have detailed stats of their scores presented. Possible top 10 finishers (which icludes some of possible top 5 finishers) are ranked by possible placements they may got at Olympic and detailed stats are not presented in their scores analyses..(deductions for falls are not included in this data).. Be free to ask if you need some explanations

MEN:

Medal contenders:

1. Uno (JPN)
Average score: 293.89
SP 101.46 (TES 55.43 PCS 46.03/9.27/9.00/9.23/9.26/9.27)
FP 192.43 (TES 100.91 PCS 91.52/9.33/8.92/9.09/9.18/9.24)
Range of scores: 274.82 - 321.30
Olympic placement: 1st - 6th

2. Chen (USA)
Average score: 283.51
SP 99.95 (TES 55.67 PCS 44.28/8.84/8.65/8.91/8.90/8.98)
FP 183.56 (TES 95.62 PCS 87.94/8.86/8.53/8.78/8.93/8.87)
Range of scores: 263.89 - 299.51
Olympic placement: 1st - 8th

3. Hanyu (JPN)
Average score: 280.79
SP 104.31 (TES 56.71 PCS 47.60/9.54/9.37/9.51/9.62/9.56)
FP 176.48 (TES 84.50 PCS 91.98/9.35/9.07/9.00/9.30/9.27)
Range of scores: 258.80 - 308.64
Olympic placement: 1st - 8th
Note: Yuzuru competed only in 2 international competitions this season, but his range of scores is enough even with that to make 'reliable' prediction on Olys placement

4. Fernandez (ESP)
Average score: 278.63
SP 100.88 (TES 53.75 PCS 47.13/9.31/9.28/9.48/9.49/9.57)
FP 177.75 (TES 85.32 PCS 92.40/9.23/9.16/9.03/9.39/9.39)
Range of scores: 253.05 - 299.73
Olympic placement: 1st - 10th

5. Kolyada (OAR)
Average score: 268.28
SP 89.50 (TES 46.92 PCS 42.58/8.67/8.33/8.46/8.59/8.53)
FP 178.78 (TES 92.48 PCS 86.30/8.81/8.42/8.47/8.73/8.72)
Range of scores: 236.84 - 293.93
Olympic placement: 1st - out of top 10

6. Jin (CHN)
Average score: 267.05
SP 90.06 (TES 49.07 PCS 40.99/8.29/7.96/8.25/8.27/8.22)
FP 176.99 (TES 96.91 PCS 80.08/8.27/7.69/8.05/8.05/7.98)
Range of scores: 242.80 - 300.95
Olympic placement: 1st - out of top 10

7. Rippon (USA)
Average score: 258.68
SP 85.96 (TES 43.18 PCS 42.78/8.48/8.28/8.70/8.58/8.74)
FP 172.72 (TES 86.00 PCS 86.72/8.64/8.36/8.77/8.71/8.88)
Range of scores: 250.40 - 269.04
Olympic placement: 2nd - out of top 10

8. Aliev (OAR)
Average score: 245.88
SP 84.93 (TES 45.00 PCS 39.93/8.10/7.88/8.00/8.00/7.95)
FP 160.95 (TES 79.95 PCS 81.00/8.19/7.91/8.02/8.20/8.18)
Range of scores: 225.63 - 274.06
Olympic placement: 2nd - out of top 10

Top 10 contenders:

9. Chan (CAN) 4th - out of top 10
10. Tanaka (JPN) 4th - out of top 10
11. Ge (UZB) 5th - out of top 10
12. Zhou (USA) 5th - out of top 10
13. Yan (CHN) 6th - out of top 10
14. Hendrickx (BEL) 6th - out of top 10
15. Bychenko (ISR) 6th - out of top 10
Note: Patrick competed only in one competition this season, so for his Olympic prediction is used also an average score of last season. Still, prediction on his placement should be taken as the less reliable one.

Note: According to this season scores (and some injuries which preceded them) across all the Mens international competitions, skaters looks like a big mess to be frank (in terms of a very big variety in every individual scores). Knowing that, it should be very hard to predict medal winners and skaters placements at Olys. Still, some of them had better success in important competitions in the past comparing to the others, and that should be taken into account of course.

 

[ancientpeas]

:thumbsup: Nice work! Most people seem to have those top 4 as the top chances for medals. Kolyada will have a medal from the team event so maybe that will free him up to have the skate of his life.

However.. I'll never forget '92 and '94 when Kurt Browning went in as the overwhelming favourite and didn't even walk away with a medal. The ice is indeed slippery.

Both Chan and Hanyu have not competed much this year. I think Yuzuru will be fine and maybe if Canada can win the gold in the team event that will really allow Patrick to have a wonderful, beautiful skate. I'm not saying he'll medal but I'd love to see him just have a skate that is free from the burden of having to win all the time.

 

[danse]

However.. I'll never forget '92 and '94 when Kurt Browning went in as the overwhelming favourite and didn't even walk away with a medal. The ice is indeed slippery.

^This. One of the best skaters to never win an Olympic medal. Just couldn't get his ducks in a row at the highest pressure moments of his career.

 

[anyanka]

However.. I'll never forget '92 and '94 when Kurt Browning went in as the overwhelming favourite and didn't even walk away with a medal. The ice is indeed slippery.

That still bewilders me to this day.

And I'd like to add that there's no "Sure thing". Remember in 1994 when not only Kurt was favoured, but the professionals returned for the first time to Olympic ice and that included Boitano and Petrenko, the previous two champs? None of them medaled, we got Urmanov, Stojko and Candeloro instead. Also, Candeloro being written off and returning in 1998 for a second consecutive bronze ahead of Eldridge was a major surprise too.

 

[Mathman]

Thanks for taking the time to compile these statistics. The spread of possible placements, basically "gold medal to 'didn't make the cut for the LP'" is the most illuminating conclusion. It's still a total grab bag on the eve of the Games.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

PAIRS

Medal contenders:

1. Sui/Han (CHN)
Average score: 228.61
SP 78.77 (TES 41.32 PCS 37.45/9.32/9.31/9.34/9.40/9.45)
FP 149.84 (TES 74.40 PCS 75.44/9.39/9.35/9.42/9.53/9.46)
Range of scores: 219.53 - 236.09
Olympic placement: 1st - 6th

2. Savchenko/Massot (GER)
Average score: 221.61
SP 75.04 (TES 38.41 PCS 36.63/9.09/9.06/9.12/9.24/9.28)
FP 146.57 (TES 71.82 PCS 74.75/9.28/9.26/9.31/9.42/9.45)
Range of scores: 210.89 - 236.75
Olympic placement: 1st - 6th

3. Tarasova/Morozov (OAR)
Average score: 219.30
SP 76.94 (TES 40.32 PCS 36.62/9.23/9.00/9.21/9.20/9.14)
FP 142.36 (TES 68.68 PCS 73.68/9.32/9.07/9.18/9.25/9.13)
Range of scores: 200.26 - 230.74
Olympic placement: 1st - 10th

4. Duhamel/Radford (CAN)
Average score: 214.19
SP 74.55 (TES 38.74 PCS 35.81/8.95/8.80/8.98/9.00/9.03)
FP 139.64 (TES 69.00 PCS 70.64/8.87/8.71/8.78/8.93/8.86)
Range of scores: 197.99 - 226.38
Olympic placement: 1st - 10th

5. James/Cipres (FRA)
Average score: 212.85
SP 74.06 (TES 39.20 PCS 34.86/8.61/8.55/8.85/8.78/8.79)
FP 138.79 (TES 68.18 PCS 70.61/8.78/8.63/8.87/8.92/8.93)
Range of scores: 206.27 - 217.57
Olympic placement: 2nd - 8th

6. Yu/Zhang (CHN)
Average score: 207.84
SP 72.06 (TES 38.64 PCS 33.42/8.37/8.22/8.33/8.55/8.30)
FP 135.78 (TES 67.78 PCS 68.00/8.62/8.38/8.50/8.55/8.45)
Range of scores: 193.61 - 219.20
Olympic placement: 2nd - out of top 10

7. Zabiiako/Enbert (OAR)
Average score: 200.60
SP 70.02 (TES 37.70 PCS 32.32/8.10/7.87/8.13/8.16/8.14)
FP 130.58 (TES 65.33 PCS 65.25/8.15/7.97/8.19/8.23/8.24)
Range of scores: 181.12 - 210.35
Olympic placement: 3rd - out of top 10

Top 10 contenders:

8. Marchei/Hotarek (ITA) 4th - out of top 10
9. Astakhova/Rogonov (OAR) 4th - out of 10
10. Peng/Jin (CHN) 4th - out of top 10
11. Della Monica/Guarise (ITA) 6th - out of top 10
12. Seguin/Bilodeau (CAN) 6th - out of top 10
13. Moore-Towers/Marinaro (CAN) 6th - out of top 10
14. Scimeca Knierim/Knierim (USA) 7th - out of top 10

 

[Baron Vladimir]

ICE DANCE:

Medal contenders:

1. Papadakis/Cizeron (FRA)
Average score: 199.54
SD 80.79 (TES 41.90 PCS 38.89/9.64/9.58/9.83/9.73/9.83)
FD 118.75 (TES 59.93 PCS 58.82/9.69/9.64/9.88/9.87/9.94)
Range of scores: 191.18 - 204.06
Olympic placement: 1st - 3rd

2. Virtue/Moir (CAN)
Average score: 198.57
SD 81.27 (TES 42.56 PCS 38.71/9.56/9.55/9.81/9.67/9.80)
FD 117.30 (TES 59.05 PCS 58.25/9.59/9.54/9.81/9.74/9.86)
Range of scores: 195.63 - 202.60
Olympic placement: 1st or 2nd

3. Shibutani/Shibutani (USA)
Average score: 190.46
SD 78.17 (PCS 40.79 PCS 37.38/9.33/9.17/9.39/9.39/9.45)
FD 112.29 (PCS 56.03 PCS 56.26/9.41/9.25/9.39/9.43/9.40)
Range of scores: 187.04 - 194.25
Olympic placement: 2nd - 8th

4. Hubbell/Donohue (USA)
Average score: 186.04
SD 74.86 (TES 38.54 PCS 36.32/9.02/8.93/9.16/9.11/9.18)
FD 111.18 (TES 56.21 PCS 54.97/9.15/8.94/9.27/9.20/9.25)
Range of scores: 179.54 - 191.05
Olympic placement: 3rd - 10th

5. Bobrova/Soloviev (OAR)
Average score: 184.67
SD 73.95 (TES 37.27 PCS 36.68/9.17/9.00/9.23/9.20/9.25)
FD 110.72 (TES 55.12 PCS 55.60/9.20/9.06/9.34/9.35/9.38)
Range of scores: 179.11 - 189.37
Olympic placement: 3rd - 10th

6. Chock/Bates (USA)
Average score: 184.65
SD 73.81 (TES 37.33 PCS 36.48/9.03/8.98/9.20/9.19/9.20)
FD 110.84 (TES 55.66 PCS 55.18/9.12/9.08/9.27/9.20/9.31)
Range of scores: 181.22 - 188.05
Olympic placement: 3rd - 10th

7. Cappellini/Lanotte (ITA)
Average score: 183.70
SD 74.29 (TES 37.38 PCS 36.51/9.03/8.92/9.23/9.18/9.28)
FD 109.41 (TES 54.46 PCS 54.95/9.05/8.97/9.22/9.25/9.30)
Range of scores: 178.47 - 188.28
Olympic placement: 3rd - 10th

8. Weaver/Poje (CAN)
Average score: 180.49
SD 71.93 (TES 36.12 PCS 35.81/8.92/8.80/8.90/9.09/9.05)
FD 108.56 (TES 54.38 PCS 54.18/8.98/8.95/9.09/9.10/9.16)
Range of scores: 172.29 - 190.01
Olympic placement: 3rd - out of top 10

Top 10 contenders:

9. Gilles/Poirier (CAN) 5th - out of 10
10. Guignard/Fabri (ITA) 6th - out of top 10
11. Zahorski/Guerreiro (OAR) 8th - out of top 10
12. Coomes/Buckland (GBR) 8th - out of top 10

 

[Baron Vladimir]

After the Team event finished its worth to mention that all skaters scores in Team event were in range of their scores presenting here except Nathan who scored his lowest SP and outside of his current range. Mirai average scores is better now and she could finish 4th with that kind of skate.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Most of the men skated in their range of scores and in range of theirs projected placements based on those range of scores. Hanyu, Fernandez, Zhou and Samohin skated slightly better than they did in previous competitions this year. However, Yan skated bellow his range.
Pairs skated in the upper part of their possible range of scores, on the border of their highest possible scores Duhamel/Radford even scored slightly (higher) outside of it, while Marchei/Hotarek scored noticeably higher.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

After Oly Ice Dance competition is finished, we can say that V/M and P/C skated even better than they did this season On the other side C/B underperformed comparing to the scores they got this season. All of the other top ice dancers skated in the range of their possible scores and projected placements.

 

[anyanka]

Did anyone else notice this curiosity in ice dance?

The same teams that placed 5th to 7th did so in both 2014 and 2018.

5. Bobrova / Soloviev
6. Cappellini / Lanotte
7. Weaver / Poje

That is just plain odd.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

In Ice Dance generally (comparing to the other disciplines) there is less changing in placements through the years (as it is also the case during one season). But in that example you mention its worth notice that those teams could place higher at this Oly if its not American teams S/S and H/D who went ahead of them in placements through this Oly quad (while P/C replaced D/W kind of)

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Ladies skated too in the range of their projected placements based on their possible minimum and maximum scores of this season. Some of them particulary impressed. Congrats to Alina, Evgenia, Kaetlyn, Satoko and Dabin for giving even more than what they have already gave :clapper: