2022 Olympic Team Event discussion and predictions

[HeadBanger]

I just think it's absurd to try to draw conclusions off a ridiculously limited sample size. And further to do it across disciplines where there are wildly different rest periods after the team competition.

To back up my contention, lets take a comprehensive look at all the instances of skaters skating both ends of the team competition:

Lets start with the pairs, since they have the shortest turnaround times, just 5 days between shorts and 4 days between longs. There have been six instances:

Castelli/Shnapir (2014) - Finished 9th in pairs event, finished even lower at Worlds
Berton/Hotarek (2014) - Finished 11th in pairs event, finished 9th at Worlds with a 5 point improvement
Takahashi/Kihara (2014) - Finished 18th in the pairs event and did not advance to long, similar at Worlds
Knierims (2018) - Finished 15th in pairs event, performed very similarly at Worlds
Suzuki/Kihara (2018) - Finished 21st in the pairs event and did not advance to long, similar at Worlds
Duhamel/Radford - Won bronze in pairs event, then retired

Assessments: Small sample size, but there doesn't appear to be any detriment to doing both ends of the teams event even in spite of the extremely short turnaround between Team and Pairs events at the Olympics. The biggest LP meltdown was Tarasova/Morozov in 2018, and they only skated the short in the Team

 

[HeadBanger]

To back up my contention, lets take a comprehensive look at all the instances of skaters skating both ends of the team competition:

Lets start with the pairs, since they have the shortest turnaround times, just 5 days between shorts and 4 days between longs. There have been six instances:

Castelli/Shnapir (2014) - Finished 9th in pairs event, finished even lower at Worlds
Berton/Hotarek (2014) - Finished 11th in pairs event, finished 9th at Worlds with a 5 point improvement
Takahashi/Kihara (2014) - Finished 18th in the pairs event and did not advance to long, similar at Worlds
Knierims (2018) - Finished 15th in pairs event, performed very similarly at Worlds
Suzuki/Kihara (2018) - Finished 21st in the pairs event and did not advance to long, similar at Worlds
Duhamel/Radford - Won bronze in pairs event, then retired

Assessments: Small sample size, but there doesn't appear to be any detriment to doing both ends of the teams event even in spite of the extremely short turnaround between Team and Pairs events at the Olympics. The biggest LP meltdown was Tarasova/Morozov in 2018, and they only skated the short in the Team

Now lets look at the men. They had the next shortest turnarond at 7 days between shorts and 6 days between long programs. There ave been five instances:

Plushenko (2014) - Withdrew with injury before the mens event, he was mainly just there for the team anyway
Bonifacio Parkinson (2014) - Finished 27th in mens event and did not advance to long program. Had finished 33rd at prior Worlds, did not go that year and looks to have retired shortly thereafter
Kolyada (2018) - Finished 8th in the mens event with 264pts. Won bronze at Worlds with 272pts, though interestingly his Olympic LP score was actually higher than Worlds LP.
Chan (2018) - Finished 9th in mens event. Retired after Olympics. LP score was slightly lower than team LP. Possibly fatigue, but difference was minor and Team medal was his main focus
Rizzo (2018) - Finished 21st in mens event. Finised 17th at Worlds with a lower score.

Assessment: A small sample made even smaller with only one really relevant instance... and you can probably see whatever you want in Kolyada's result. Ice is slippery.

 

[HeadBanger]

Now lets look at the men. They had the next shortest turnarond at 7 days between shorts and 6 days between long programs. There ave been five instances:

Plushenko (2014) - Withdrew with injury before the mens event, he was mainly just there for the team anyway
Bonifacio Parkinson (2014) - Finished 27th in mens event and did not advance to long program. Had finished 33rd at prior Worlds, did not go that year and looks to have retired shortly thereafter
Kolyada (2018) - Finished 8th in the mens event with 264pts. Won bronze at Worlds with 272pts, though interestingly his Olympic LP score was actually higher than Worlds LP.
Chan (2018) - Finished 9th in mens event. Retired after Olympics. LP score was slightly lower than team LP. Possibly fatigue, but difference was minor and Team medal was his main focus
Rizzo (2018) - Finished 21st in mens event. Finised 17th at Worlds with a lower score.

Assessment: A small sample made even smaller with only one really relevant instance... and you can probably see whatever you want in Kolyada's result. Ice is slippery.

Now lets do the Ladies. They have the longest rest, with 10/11 days between the shorts and 11 days between the long programs. There have been three instances:

Lipnitskaya (2014) - Finished 5th in the women's event with 200. Won silver at Worlds with 207, but a lower score in her long program compared to Sochi
Osmond (2014) - Finished 13th in women's event with 169. Finished 11th at Worlds with similar score. Sochi women's LP was her highest scoring LP of the season
Kostner (2018) - Finished 5th in women's event with 212. Finished 4th at Worlds with 209. Had won the short program at Worlds and actually struggled in the LP (as did everyone else as memory serves)

Assessment: Again, horribly small sample size, but really not seeing fatigue from doing both skates in the Team being a big factor in LP scores. Nor really should it be with that much rest between the Team and Women's events.

 

[HeadBanger]

Now lets do the Ladies. They have the longest rest, with 10/11 days between the shorts and 11 days between the long programs. There have been three instances:

Lipnitskaya (2014) - Finished 5th in the women's event with 200. Won silver at Worlds with 207, but a lower score in her long program compared to Sochi
Osmond (2014) - Finished 13th in women's event with 169. Finished 11th at Worlds with similar score. Sochi women's LP was her highest scoring LP of the season
Kostner (2018) - Finished 5th in women's event with 212. Finished 4th at Worlds with 209. Had won the short program at Worlds and actually struggled in the LP (as did everyone else as memory serves)

Assesment: Again, horribly small sample size, but really not seeing fatigue from doing both skates in the Team being a big factor in LP scores. Nor really should it be with that much rest between the Team and Women's events.

And for good measure, the Ice Dance. Actually have had 8 instances here, including all five teams from 2018. Doesn't seem to be much consternation about this one, but here it is anyway. They've had 8 days rest between like programs.

Davis/White (2014) - Won gold
Virtue/Moir (2014) - Won silver
Reed/Reed (2014) - 21st, did not advance to long
Bobrova/Soloviev (2018) - Finished 5th
Virtue/Moir (2018) - Won gold
Shibutanis (2018) - Won bronze
Cappellini/Lanotte (2018) - Finished 6th
Muramoto/Reed (2018) - Finished 15th

Assessment: These were all pretty much right in line with expectations. If anything, the extra skates seemed to help teams like V/M and the Shibs

 

[HeadBanger]

In summary: The sample sizes are far to small to draw any sort of firm conclusions as to the effects of skating two team event programs prior to ones performance regular event, but what examples there are don't seem to indicate it's detrimental.

At the end of the day, I'd leave it up to the skater. If they want to, let them. If they don't, don't. It's in all likelihood more mental than anything... and ice is as always, slippery

 

[Blades of Passion]

You have ZERO singles examples to prove your point that a skater can successfully do both team segments and do well enough to medal in the individual.

I've given countless examples, you just ignore them.

Singles skaters factually did 2 Long Programs at Worlds, and 2 Long Programs in a single day at the GPF. Look up Yagudin vs Plushenko and see how competitive they were able to be.

We also have MANY examples of skaters doing back-to-back Grand Prix events, which on pure physical level could be harder since it involves flying between different locations! Or people going to 4CC right after Nationals. And of course, the FACT that most top competitive skaters do full SP + LP performances every single day in practice, often twice a day or more! Back-to-back programs in training also a thing!

People absolutely can do 4 programs in a week at the Olympics. It's already apparent from so many other sports. Figure skaters have EASY competitive schedules compared to others.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think it would be tough to bring your peak level four times in the span of a week, from an emotional standpoint. I really wish they would close with the team event so the athletes could better assess how prepared they are to do two more programs. With Nathan, I felt like the team event put doubts in his mind for the individual event, whereas had he done the team event last he might have been more motivated to make up for his indivudal event performance.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I've given countless examples, you just ignore them.

Singles skaters factually did 2 Long Programs at Worlds, and 2 Long Programs in a single day at the GPF. Look up Yagudin vs Plushenko and see how competitive they were able to be.

We also have MANY examples of skaters doing back-to-back Grand Prix events, which on pure physical level could be harder since it involves flying between different locations! Or people going to 4CC right after Nationals. And of course, the FACT that most top competitive skaters do full SP + LP performances every single day in practice, often twice a day or more! Back-to-back programs in training also a thing!

People absolutely can do 4 programs in a week at the Olympics. It's already apparent from so many other sports. Figure skaters have EASY competitive schedules compared to others.

Last time I checked, factually:
2 Long Programs at Worlds (one of which was a qualifying segment not even worth a ton) + 1 SP = 3 programs, not 4
2 Long Programs at the GPF + an SP = 3 programs, not 4

Not to mention that was done long before the demands of the current IJS. Back then was child's play and skaters didn't have to do as intricate spins, transitions or footwork. Ice dancers definitely didn't have the same physical demands. These were the days when the best men would do one quad in each program, and some wouldn't even do any. You can't use such blatant strawmans as that. Even still.... I would be curious to see how many skaters were able to consistently deliver across all of these programs versus competitions where they only had to do two segments.

We aren't questioning a skater's ability to do 4 programs in a week, or heck 10 full-on programs in a single day. They're trained and could "do"/run through them. But what is ACTUALLY pertinent is their ability to consistently skate well in all these programs - in competition, under pressure. I would also be curious to know how many singles skaters have done back-to-back Grand Prix events and delivered their best in all 4 programs. And that's just the Grand Prix where the pressure of Olympic medals aren't on the line.

Chen compromising his individual gold chances to get 1 or 2 extra placements in the team FS is simply asinine. And I'm pretty sure Russia will handily beat the US, as they have no weak discipline... so even if Chen orZhou won the FS segment, I don't think it'll make a big difference. US are vulnerable in women and pairs, and will quite likely lose to Russia in ID if S/K is fielded. Burning out Chen for a more robust silver isn't worth it. Even if Japan wins silver and US bronze, which is possible, and Chen goes on to win gold, it's worth it. But if Chen leaves his best skating in the team event, the US still doesn't win, and then Chen fails to win gold in individual, it'll be an utter disaster.

And you forget that that skaters are also thinking about their own best interests too. I'm pretty sure Lipnitskaia has some regrets about peaking in both programs in team instead of in the individual event (where she fell in each program) and would have rather it happened the other way around - and she'd have two gold medals to show for it. Russia would probably have regretted it too (losing the women's individual gold) had Sotnikova not had the skate of her life to make up for a poor showing by Lip, and thus earned Russia's first ever women's Olympic gold — congrats again to Adelina, by the way on her historic win!

 

[Greengemmonster]

I really wonder who they will pick for the team event in Women's.

I used to think Alysa was a sure bet until the judges were super stingy with her on GOEs in her GPs. Mariah is very well received by international judges but no 3-3. They did love her at Rostelecom. It's a hard one!

Olympics = international judges, go with Mariah?

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I really wonder who they will pick for the team event in Women's.

I used to think Alysa was a sure bet until the judges were super stingy with her on GOEs in her GPs. Mariah is very well received by international judges but no 3-3. They did love her at Rostelecom. It's a hard one!

Olympics = international judges, go with Mariah?

Mariah's sample size of 1 good free skate at Rostelecom isn't enough to convince me that she's the best bet for the FS. Certainly for the SP, Liu has been better all season, in her GPs too (since those are apparently the only "real" comps which matter, to some people). Technical proficiency will rule the day, and I am certain the international judges will not be as lenient as they were on Bell/Chen at Nationals. Bell would need a nicer looking 3-3 (instead of one that's eked out and not the most reliable) - just a triple double isn't going to cut it and no way would she have cleared 140 internationally for her Nationals FS. Liu while scrappy technically gets the job done, whereas Bell plays it safe. A FS without a triple-triple will have the Russians and Japanese teams laughing.

Either way, there isn't any consistently strong US woman and the Russia fed is licking their chops at not just the Japanese but potentially other countries putting distance between Russia and the US in the ladies SP. And that's what the difference will be, I think.

The US will likely field just one woman (because men and dance are cleary the disciplines where they have 2 entries who can legit challenge for top positions in those disciplines). With Bell and Chen both having failed to clear 70 in the SP all season, and the US likely just fielding one woman, it leads me to believe Liu will do both segments. In the FS it really doesn't matter because Russia's gonna be first, Japan second, and then a margin before the US in 3rd and then a wide margin before Canada and country#5. The only one who could theoretically challenge Japan, if they execute their content, is Liu.

Sure they could go with Chen in both segments as BOP seems to think will happen (and then Liu and Bell for women), but if Zhou continues to deliver at Nationals, it will be very hard to justify not having both Chen and Zhou do the men's segments. The women are a mess, and the men have two very technically strong candidates to win either segment .

The real question is who the US will put in the team event for pairs. After their stellar skates at Nationals, the US should go with C-G/L, especially with Alexa already having a team medal.

 

[Wafflecakes]

I am really hoping for a surprise this year in the team event. They have been all too predictable in recent years.

As many have discussed, on paper the Russians have it locked up. However, their men and pairs are inconsistent enough that a bomb could happen. Though I think it would take big mistakes in both disciplines for Japan or the US to have a shot.

Canada seems out of it (It is shocking how shallow their talent pool is in recent years. No depth at all.) Who knows though.

 

[[email protected]]

As many have discussed, on paper the Russians have it locked up. However, their men and pairs are inconsistent enough that a bomb could happen. Though I think it would take big mistakes in both disciplines for Japan or the US to have a shot.

What are you talking about? M/G is one of the most consistent pairs during the last years.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

What are you talking about? M/G is one of the most consistent pairs during the last years.

2/4 SPs this season have been subpar (for them at least) where they scored 73.64 and 73.76 which is definitely beatable.

 

[jenaj]

I really wonder who they will pick for the team event in Women's.

I used to think Alysa was a sure bet until the judges were super stingy with her on GOEs in her GPs. Mariah is very well received by international judges but no 3-3. They did love her at Rostelecom. It's a hard one!

Olympics = international judges, go with Mariah?

I’m pretty sure Alysa will be skating the team event. She has consistent 3-3s which Mariah lacks.

 

[ks777]

I’m pretty sure Alysa will be skating the team event. She has consistent 3-3s which Mariah lacks.

I thought you were talking about Alissa Czisny for a sec..

 

[Blades of Passion]

Chen compromising his individual gold chances to get 1 or 2 extra placements in the team FS is simply asinine.

He doesn't compromise anything, this is a fearmongering statement that flies in the face of what other athletes have done. The need for him to do the LP is a far bigger difference than you are making it out to be too. As I've already provided the math for, USA almost surely needs to win both segments of the Men's event if they are going to win the Team event. The competition could definitely come down to 1 team point, and besides that, Zhou could finish behind the Russian guy with what he's been showing. There's no way USA would be able to win like that.

And what's important to consider, is Nathan doesn't need to do his full tech content in the Team LP to beat the others. It's an ideal practice session for him. He gets to feel his LP on competitive Olympic ice and assert his dominance going into the individual event. Thus, competing the Team LP should in fact be seen as HELPFUL to his chances of winning the individual event.

 

[jenaj]

I thought you were talking about Alissa Czisny for a sec..

 

[jenaj]

Mariah's sample size of 1 good free skate at Rostelecom isn't enough to convince me that she's the best bet for the FS. Certainly for the SP, Liu has been better all season, in her GPs too (since those are apparently the only "real" comps which matter, to some people). Technical proficiency will rule the day, and I am certain the international judges will not be as lenient as they were on Bell/Chen at Nationals. Bell would need a nicer looking 3-3 (instead of one that's eked out and not the most reliable) - just a triple double isn't going to cut it and no way would she have cleared 140 internationally for her Nationals FS. Liu while scrappy technically gets the job done, whereas Bell plays it safe. A FS without a triple-triple will have the Russians and Japanese teams laughing.

Either way, there isn't any consistently strong US woman and the Russia fed is licking their chops at not just the Japanese but potentially other countries putting distance between Russia and the US in the ladies SP. And that's what the difference will be, I think.

The US will likely field just one woman (because men and dance are cleary the disciplines where they have 2 entries who can legit challenge for top positions in those disciplines). With Bell and Chen both having failed to clear 70 in the SP all season, and the US likely just fielding one woman, it leads me to believe Liu will do both segments. In the FS it really doesn't matter because Russia's gonna be first, Japan second, and then a margin before the US in 3rd and then a wide margin before Canada and country#5. The only one who could theoretically challenge Japan, if they execute their content, is Liu.

Sure they could go with Chen in both segments as BOP seems to think will happen (and then Liu and Bell for women), but if Zhou continues to deliver at Nationals, it will be very hard to justify not having both Chen and Zhou do the men's segments. The women are a mess, and the men have two very technically strong candidates to win either segment .

The real question is who the US will put in the team event for pairs. After their stellar skates at Nationals, the US should go with C-G/L, especially with Alexa already having a team medal.

It will also have to do with what Nathan wants. I think he will not want to do both segments.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

It will also have to do with what Nathan wants. I think he will not want to do both segments.

Are you sure? I thought the US fed was going to go with whatever BOP wants!

(But yes, Nathan probably won't want to do both segments, and there's absolutely no reason why he should want both segments, given that Zhou is a solid option for the SP given his 4 strong SPs this season; and even in the FS he's a viable option with the 2nd highest FS this season internationally too. USFS will also want to give some mileage/motivation/share the love with Zhou, given he is an actual individual medal contender.)