2022 Olympic Team Event discussion and predictions

[mskater93]

Skating 4 programs over the course of a week, and never more than 1 in a single day, is absolutely not more difficult than what athletes in other sports do at the Olympics. That's already far less than what the skaters already do in training!! Time to get real. This notion that it's too difficult is full absurdity.

Not to mention, there are competitors who already HAVE done this, and performed very well. Everyone in skating would do it if there were 2 individual medals on the line and if it was required to compete a SP + LP in the 1st event to qualify to the more prestigious event afterward. It's simply not become the norm yet. The team event needs to be treated more seriously.

It's not going to be your choice anyway. If USFS treats things as they have the last 2 Olympics, they will *ASK* Nathan his preference first and if he chooses to split, that will be 1, then they will *ASK* whoever wins Dance this week (and both teams already said they would split), that will be 2 and there will be no more team split. As for Ladies, Alyssa Liu holds the highest SP and LP score this season for US ladies in international comps. Mariah Bell is *NOT* a better choice for the LP, as much as I love her skating as her 3/3 has disappeared (this is pending what happens this week, of course). Pairs is a crap shoot no matter what the US chooses, so...

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Such a load of crap, as usual. Zhou has not at all "proven" himself to be reliable. He's had ONE performance in the past 3 years that says "I might be able to beat a top-form Shoma" and he did poorly in his most recent LP! And it's absolutely true that Shoma has not yet maximized his extremely difficult jump layout this season, whereas Zhou has. What he did at Skate America is the end game for the season. He's not suddenly going to be adding in a Quad Loop, or a +3Lo combo, or be able to produce +5 GOE jumps.

Nathan Chen skating both segments is 100% factually the best chance of USA winning the Team Gold. There is NO arguing against that. This is a competition. The best team needs to be selected. Predict Zhou to win the Men's singles event, or even the Silver, if you think he's so reliable and capable. But you won't. Because you know the truth and are just being annoying.

USA is not "Silver at best" in the Team event. There is a definite chance to win. Russia does not have consistent Men, and never-say-never about what can randomly happen in other disciplines. Also, the reality of politics needs to be understood. Russia wants as many Gold medals as possible. They will have a "chat" with the technical specialist if it looks like their Team Gold is in jeopardy. Zhou WILL be given every call possible, if he is deemed to be a threat. They can't do that to Nathan Chen. He's untouchable...because he rotates his jumps.

Sure, factually Chen is the best bet doing both segments in the team event given his scoring potential. But factually, then Valieva and Sinitsina/Katsalapov should compete in both segments of the team event for Russia as they are the highest potential scorers. Sure you could say the Russian women could split both entries, but Sasha/Anna lack a 3A for the SP and have had freeskates this season which Japan could potentially beat, so Valieva is really a much safer bet. And factually, Sakamoto/Hanyu should compete in both segments for Japan. Last Olympics, factually, Canada would have scored higher in the team event keeping Osmond in both segments.

There are plenty of countries where they would score better having the #1 entry for both segments, if they didn't share the love by splitting the discipline with the country's #1 and #2 skaters. I mean, that's just stating the obvious.

Going into 2022, I can think of just two examples where a medal-threat country's top two individual entries are essentially on par with each other in terms of point scoring ability/reliability, and thus won't make a difference if they split the team event, namely the US' H/D and C/B in ice dance and Russia's pairs teams. In every other case, countries should just go with their best entry in every discipline if they truly want to minimize risk and maximize points (e.g. Canada is unlikely to medal but if they want a shot they really should go with just Messing/Schizas/J+R/G+P).

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

She has the best LP this season from any USA woman. Her skating is much more mature than Alysa's and definitely deserves higher PCS. The advantage of a 3Axel between the SP and LP is exactly the same, but PCS is worth 2x as much in the LP. Thus, Alysa has the potential advantage in the SP because of the 3Axel base value, but in the LP she falls behind.

Who cares about Bell's "maturity"/best LP over Liu? It's a points game and Liu's technical ability on even an off day is more enough to offset Mariah's maturity. And your PCS argument doesn't even hold any weight if you look at the numbers this season. Liu's average free skate PCS score has actually been HIGHER than Bell's this 2021-2022 season, and has scored 65+ PCS in 4/5 free skates, whereas Bell has produced 65+ PCS in 1/3 free skates.

Alysa's FS PCS this season:
- 66.58 (NHK)
- 67.39 (Skate Canada)
- 66.45 (Nebelhorn)
- 69.20 (Lombardia)
- 64.14 (Cranberry Cup - where Bell competed)
Average: 66.75

Mariah's FS PCS personal best this season:
- 69.43 (Rostelecom)
- 64.53 (IdF)
- 61.20 (Cranberry Cup - where Liu competed)
Average: 65.05

 

[HeadBanger]

I like the team event, too. It rewards countries that are strong in all or most disciplines. Would we see Japan trying to develop pairs and dance teams without it? It gave us one of the most exciting things in 2018 when Mirai did her triple axel. It also gives us more skating to watch.

There were a lot of great skates and moments during the 2018 competition, even well away from the podium. Marchei and Hotarek's free skate was wonderful, and their reaction even better. Bychenko's short program was a highlight. Mirai's triple axel.

Heck, my favourite skate of the entire Olympics may have been Aimee Buchanan's short, was just there to fill out her nations team and obviously not in the same calibre as everyone else, but she had the skate of her life and the joy on her and her teammates faces really reminds you what the Olympics are all about.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Skating 4 programs over the course of a week, and never more than 1 in a single day, is absolutely not more difficult than what athletes in other sports do at the Olympics. That's already far less than what the skaters already do in training!! Time to get real. This notion that it's too difficult is full absurdity.

Not to mention, there are competitors who already HAVE done this, and performed very well. Everyone in skating would do it if there were 2 individual medals on the line and if it was required to compete a SP + LP in the 1st event to qualify to the more prestigious event afterward. It's simply not become the norm yet. The team event needs to be treated more seriously.

That is a demanding requirement to ask any medal hopeful - but it is especially demanding to ask that of someone in singles. Nobody in singles who has competed in both team events has ever gone on to win an individual medal.

The only skaters to have competed in both team segments and have an individual medal from that Olympics are D/W and V/M in 2014 ice dance; D/R in 2018 pairs; V/M + Shibs in 2018 ice dance.

There have also been skaters who have done both segments and NOT done well after the team event - see: Lipnitskaia, Osmond, Berton/Hotarek in 2014 and Scimeca-Knierim/Knierim in 2018.

Yay for more skating during the Olympics but the tea is - the team event does NOT need to be treated "seriously" as you say it does. It's a chest-beating contest of the major countries, and the format only favours major feds. Historically it's been a 3-way race -- it's hilarious how NBC even tries to make it exciting by making it seem like the Italians/French/etc. were threats when in 2014 and 2018 it was always going to be Russia/Canada/US in some order. And now thanks to Canada's major slump and M/K serving it Japan is slated to medal. But most of the other countries have been usually far behind because they are usually lacking in one or several disciplines and for a variety of reasons lack the ability to challenge the top countries. Canada easily won the team event last time and even still I cared more for Osmond and D/R and V/M's individual medals.

I mean, skaters like Chen, Kolyada, Abbott and Castelli/Shnapir who performed poorly in their team event segment(s) still have Olympic medals from it. Komatsubara/Koleto - a team that has been only as high as 19th at Worlds - is likely to get a medal from the 2022 team event.

 

[Lzbee]

How are Georgia's chances for bronze?

I know that Gubanova could place as high as 3rd for women's if all goes swimmingly and Morisi can either win GPs or land no jumps but I'm not familiar at all with the pairs or ice dance.

 

[Ziotic]

How are Georgia's chances for bronze?

I know that Gubanova could place as high as 3rd for women's if all goes swimmingly and Morisi can either win GPs or land no jumps but I'm not familiar at all with the pairs or ice dance.

I mean the stars would have to align by several members of other teams not being allowed to compete for whatever reason.

I’m also fairy certain they are sending Alina and Anastasia

 

[Blades of Passion]

If USFS treats things as they have the last 2 Olympics...

The selections the last 2 Olympics were perfect from a Public Relations perspective, considering USA had no real chance to win the team Gold the past 2 times. THIS time there is a GOLD medal on the line and that is what the public cares about.

It doesn't matter how *we* perceive the team event, outside the skating world it is looked upon very favorably. Winning this Gold would be a HUGE boost for U.S. Figure skating and the skaters involved. If USFS does not try to win the event, they are doing a massive disservice to the athletes and their entire program.

As for Ladies, Alyssa Liu holds the highest SP and LP score this season for US ladies in international comps.

No, Mariah Bell has the highest LP score in actual international competition this season.

Who cares about Bell's "maturity"/best LP over Liu?

The points care. Bell's 140 LP score at Rostelecom beats anything Liu has done at that level of competition.

 

[lurkerghost1]

The selections the last 2 Olympics were perfect from a Public Relations perspective, considering USA had no real chance to win the team Gold the past 2 times. THIS time there is a GOLD medal is on the line and that is what the public cares about.

It doesn't matter how *we* perceive the team event, outside the skating world it is looked upon very favorably. Winning this Gold would be a HUGE boost for U.S. Figure skating and the skaters involved. If USFS does not try to win the event, they are doing a massive disservice to the athletes and their entire program.

You're still ignoring all the actual points about the history of team event competitors flopping in individual (besides ice dance and Duhamel/Radford) such as Osmond, Lipnitskaya etc. USFS is doing a massive disservice to themselves if they put Nathan into both programs in the team knowing this history (and knowing Nathan's Olympic history) and then expect him to win gold individually. THAT is what is most likely to cost them a gold, statistically.

In the last 3 years by the way Vincent has given three performances that are on-par with top-level Shoma, not just one. You forget 2019 World Team Trophy and 2021 US Nationals. Also you said Zhou would not upgrade his Skate America layout but actually he upgraded his layout for nationals, he's now repeating 4Lz instead of 4S.

No, Mariah Bell has the highest LP score in actual international competition this season.



The points care. Bell's 140 LP score at Rostelecom beats anything Liu has done at that level of competition.

If we only go by GP results, then Vincent (1+2) outperformed Nathan (1+3) on the GP...

 

[Blades of Passion]

You're still ignoring all the actual points about the history of team event competitors flopping in individual (besides ice dance and Duhamel/Radford) such as Osmond, Lipnitskaya

Nathan is far more experienced than Osmond and Lipnitskaya in 2014. That's a bad example. And Osmond already flopped like a wet rag doll in the team event, and in most Long Programs of her career, you can hardly blame the team event for her problems. It's little more than superstition to think Nathan competing both team event segments would suddenly cost him the individual. People used to have to skate an entire extra qualifying Long Program at the World championships!!! They used to have to skate two Long Programs the SAME day at the Grand Prix Final!!! They got through it! They delivered! THE WORLD IS ROUND, PEOPLE.

If we only go by GP results, then Vincent (1+2) outperformed Nathan (1+3) on the GP...

That would be a completely superficial take. Very common around here, and very wrong. Nathan has the higher scores on the Grand Prix (not to mention the past 5 years), which of course you know. Why do people constantly introduce these bad faith arguments to try and support their other bad faith opinions? Just infuriating.

 

[lurkerghost1]

Nathan is far more experienced than Osmond and Lipnitskaya in 2014. That's a bad example. And Osmond already flopped like a wet rag doll in the team event, and in most Long Programs of her career, you can hardly blame the team event for her problems.

Lipnitskaya was inexperienced but she was not a flopper, she had just laid down 3 clean free skates in the month before the individual event. And what of Scimeca/Knierim? And Nathan himself is coming off his most inconsistent GP showing in years.

It's little more than superstition to think Nathan competing both team event segments would suddenly cost him the individual. People used to have to skate an entire extra qualifying Long Program at the World championships!!! They used to have to skate two Long Programs the SAME day at the Grand Prix Final!!! They got through it! They delivered! THE WORLD IS ROUND, PEOPLE.

Yeah the programs were not as hard back then from an athletic standpoint. Skaters don’t really train stamina much compared to other winter sports like skiing or cross country cuz it’s just not a skill that’s valued today and it is valued even less than it used to be. Schizas for example said she modified her training program to prepare for skating 4 programs in 10 days in the team event. Which makes sense because the team comp is a better shot at a medal for her than individual. You really expect nathan to do the same and take away time training the elements themselves to train stamina? When he is the gold medal favorite and has shown many times now that his current training schedule for big events usually works out?

That would be a completely superficial take. Very common around here, and very wrong. Nathan has the higher scores on the Grand Prix (not to mention the past 5 years), which of course you know. Why do people constantly introduce these bad faith arguments to try and support their other bad faith opinions? Just infuriating.

Are you kidding? My argument was obviously bad faith to point out how your argument about Alysa’s scores not counting because they’re not from GPs is also bad faith. “Of course you know” that challengers are also real international competitions yet you do not refer to them as such.

 

[Osmond4gold]

Nathan is far more experienced than Osmond and Lipnitskaya in 2014. That's a bad example. And Osmond already flopped like a wet rag doll in the team event, and in most Long Programs of her career, you can hardly blame the team event for her problems. It's little more than superstition to think Nathan competing both team event segments would suddenly cost him the individual. People used to have to skate an entire extra qualifying Long Program at the World championships!!! They used to have to skate two Long Programs the SAME day at the Grand Prix Final!!! They got through it! They delivered! THE WORLD IS ROUND, PEOPLE.



That would be a completely superficial take. Very common around here, and very wrong. Nathan has the higher scores on the Grand Prix (not to mention the past 5 years), which of course you know. Why do people constantly introduce these bad faith arguments to try and support their other bad faith opinions? Just infuriating.

What the heck are you talking about Max? Osmond had the 3rd best TES in both the SP and LP in the Team event, so, so much for flop! She went on to disprove every insult you ever bestowed, to become World Champion, never missing a podium in every competition her entire last season. Sorry that her legacy as a 3 time OG and 2 time World medalist, didn't turn out quite the way you thought it would.

 

[HeadBanger]

What the heck are you talking about Max? Osmond had the 3rd best TES in both the SP and LP in the Team event, so, so much for flop! She went on to disprove every insult you ever bestowed, to become World Champion, never missing a podium in every competition her entire last season. Sorry that her legacy as a 3 time OG and 2 time World medalist, didn't turn out quite the way you thought it would.

I think he's talking about 2014, she didn't skate the long in 2018.

In any case, it seems he's merely cherrypicking from an extremely small sample to attempt to support his point.

 

[AlysaLiuStan]

No, Mariah Bell has the highest LP score in actual international competition this season.

Last time I checked 144 > 140.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Are you kidding? My argument was obviously bad faith to point out how your argument about Alysa’s scores not counting because they’re not from GPs is also bad faith.

No that isn't bad faith. There are different judges and standards at those lower level competitions...and less competition. Alysa faced NOBODY relevant at Lombardia Trophy and her jumps were not called correctly. That situation will not repeat itself in an Olympic environment and it's blind ignorance to look at a score on paper like that and treat like it's real.

In any case, it seems he's merely cherrypicking from an extremely small sample to attempt to support his point.

If you're talking about Osmond, LOL. She literally never skated a totally clean LP her entire career, and until 2017 Worlds she pretty much always fell in the LP (and then continued to do so on the Grand Prix and at Nationals the following season).

And no, many years of skaters at Worlds and the GPF is not cherrypicking. Those champions were able to deliver two strong Long Programs, in a shorter amount of timeframe than what's asked of anyone with the Olympic schedule. Not to mention the others who've done it at the Olympics, including Duhamel/Radford at their "elder" ages while doing quads and after Eric had just come off a bad injury the previous season.

 

[yume]

I didn't think this thread could turn so

 

[Osmond4gold]

I think he's talking about 2014, she didn't skate the long in 2018.

In any case, it seems he's merely cherrypicking from an extremely small sample to attempt to support his point.

He is, and for the record in the 2014 SP & LP, Osmond had 3rd best TES of the lot in the 2 Team event skates (33.86 & 51.34), and a Silver OG medal for her contribution. There was no way judges were going to give her PCS, given her newness and up against performance legends for that era in Kostner, Asada, Suzuki, Gold, & Wagner.

 

[zach6794]

It's not going to be your choice anyway. If USFS treats things as they have the last 2 Olympics, they will *ASK* Nathan his preference first and if he chooses to split, that will be 1, then they will *ASK* whoever wins Dance this week (and both teams already said they would split), that will be 2 and there will be no more team split. As for Ladies, Alyssa Liu holds the highest SP and LP score this season for US ladies in international comps. Mariah Bell is *NOT* a better choice for the LP, as much as I love her skating as her 3/3 has disappeared (this is pending what happens this week, of course). Pairs is a crap shoot no matter what the US chooses, so...

I think mariah is abetter choice. If she does her 3F-2A sequence and goes clean, she can get a 140 which is a good safe score for the team, likely place 3rd possibly 2nd in the team fs. Mariah's well liked by international judges (and russian judges as rosteleocm shows) and she doesnt have an UR reputation (got 0 calls in any grand prix assignments other than her triple triple, and in the past, only her last 3Lz gets called but hasnt been all this season). Alysa has UR reputation and lower components. I think the US fed should tell alysa to drop the 3A and do a clean sp bc she does not get UR in the short for her non 3A elements. Give mariah the long program.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

If you're talking about Osmond, LOL. She literally never skated a totally clean LP her entire career, and until 2017 Worlds she pretty much always fell in the LP (and then continued to do so on the Grand Prix and at Nationals the following season).

And no, many years of skaters at Worlds and the GPF is not cherrypicking. Those champions were able to deliver two strong Long Programs, in a shorter amount of timeframe than what's asked of anyone with the Olympic schedule. Not to mention the others who've done it at the Olympics, including Duhamel/Radford at their "elder" ages while doing quads and after Eric had just come off a bad injury the previous season.

Hah bringing up Osmond? Sure no clean LP but she has the only North American world title in the last 15 years.

Also D/R is literally the only example that isn’t an ice dance team.

You have ZERO singles examples to prove your point that a skater can successfully do both team segments and do well enough to medal in the individual.

 

[HeadBanger]

I just think it's absurd to try to draw conclusions off a ridiculously limited sample size. And further to do it across disciplines where there are wildly different rest periods after the team competition.