Polina Edmunds World Championship prospects post 4CC.

[drivingmissdaisy]

It's also worth noting that Ashley's strat is to get a good lutz, not a good enough lutz. She is not looking to get an edge she can get away with, she flat out said she wants a really solid outside edge. She does not want the question mark, she wants to do it right and well, not just get away with it. She does not come across as trying to get away with something.

It is a good strategy for her. The flutz/lutz is a jump she rarely pops, <, or falls on so if she can do it right and land a couple in the LP she will be in very good shape. She also seems to get a better landing than her flip, given that she has actually gotten the 3T around on her combinations.

 

[mrrice]

She could be If the Russians don't show and Wagner and Gold get really sick and unable to compete.

This comment is ridiculous ! Do I think Polina will win, no. However, if she doesn't believe in herself, she will certainly fail. I clearly remember when my "Skating Wife" Maria Butyrskaya said, " I believe I can beat Michelle Kwan " and the reaction from most of the skating world was......Is she crazy ? Well, we all know what happened.

It all starts with belief and if she skates great and still doesn't medal, which is very possible. It will be a valuable lesson for her to learn. My real hope is that no matter what happens, she doesn't let it effect her continued progress as a skater. She is clearly one of the best hopes for the future of US skating and all she needs right now is a skate she can be proud of.

Remember Michelle Kwan and her great 1995 LP ? No medal but, we all knew she was something special.

 

[R.D.]

We're currently seeing it with Wagner right now, thinking she can hang with the Russians and be the USA's so-called "leading lady" for the next 3 years. A lot of raised eyebrows from outsiders for sure, but it's true - part of doing is believing.

 

[anyanka]

We're currently seeing it with Wagner right now, thinking she can hang with the Russians and be the USA's so-called "leading lady". A lot of raised eyebrows for sure, but it's true - part of doing is believing.

And vice versa.
Talking about doing the thing is ... not the thing, right?

 

[R.D.]

Talking about doing the thing is ... not the thing, right?

Yes, that too!

But we should remember there is a distinction between believing and talking.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

But we should remember there is a distinction between believing and talking.

Good point. Ashley's been trying to up her technical game for at least 3 years now and whatever she has been doing is finally starting to click. I'm a fan but even I doubted that she could improve this much at this stage of her career. She calls herself a fighter and you can tell she believes that she is.

 

[R.D.]

Yeah - first, Gold caught up to and surpassed Wagner and would seemingly never look back...and virtually overnight, Wagner made it a rivalry again by matching Gold on the jumps. Good times - it will be better for both of them and will push them to be better skaters, and as an extent, more competitive on the world scene.

It's also telling now that the "2008ers", save Flatt, are sticking around, clinging on to old hopes and dreams. (Even Flatt herself hung on en route to a low-place finish in 2014 Nationals). Nagasu has stalled/had bad luck. Zhang is basically done. And Wagner was on a downhill slope since her "breakthrough" in 2012 and is trying to reverse the ship (even then, she was still doing much better than the others). None of the 4 of them have been able to break the drought and to this point, have only perpetuated it.

 

[Sandpiper]

^No one is perpetrating anything. It's not the fault of Wagner/Nagasu/Flatt/Zhang that no one else stepped up to the plate. In fact, without them (especially without Wagner), things would be worse. Number of spots at Worlds/Olympics, medals from GP/GPF... all potentially gone.

 

[R.D.]

It's not the fault of Wagner/Nagasu/Flatt/Zhang that no one else stepped up to the plate.

sure, but how about the fact that when given the chance to step up themselves, none of them did? Nagasu could have won a medal a few years back but choked...so did Wagner...and recently, Gold...the chance was there, but they just didn't take it!

ETA: It's true that Wagner was part of the effort to get back the 3rd Olympic spot in 2013 - which, oddly enough, ended up saving her own backside in Sochi. As for 2014, Gold and Edmunds could have (just) qualified the 3rd spot for 2015 without Wagner (5,8).

Now here we are heading into 2015 worlds - with an old-timer in Wagner (her 5th trip!), on-the-rebound Gold (who holds her own fate), and Edmunds. Who knows what will happen but the path to the podium is clearer than it has been in some time. Recent history says they'll find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

[mrrice]

^No one is perpetrating anything. It's not the fault of Wagner/Nagasu/Flatt/Zhang that no one else stepped up to the plate. In fact, without them (especially without Wagner), things would be worse. Number of spots at Worlds/Olympics, medals from GP/GPF... all potentially gone.

True !!!!!!! I'd throw Alissa Czisny in there as well.

 

[Sandpiper]

sure, but how about the fact that when given the chance to step up themselves, none of them did? Nagasu could have won a medal a few years back but choked...so did Wagner...and recently, Gold...the chance was there, but they just didn't take it!

ETA: It's true that Wagner was part of the effort to get back the 3rd Olympic spot in 2013 - which, oddly enough, ended up saving her own backside in Sochi. As for 2014, Gold and Edmunds could have (just) qualified the 3rd spot for 2015 without Wagner (5,8).

Now here we are heading into 2015 worlds - with an old-timer in Wagner (her 5th trip!), on-the-rebound Gold (who holds her own fate), and Edmunds. Who knows what will happen but the path to the podium is clearer than it has been in some time. Recent history says they'll find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

They didn't step up to the plate, no... but neither did anyone else. Gold didn't in 2014. Why single out just the Wagner/Nagasu/Flatt/Zhang group? Without Wagner, USA would be short a spot at the Olympics, short a few GPs medals (including gold), short some GPF medals... Even the "disappointment" Nagasu has GP medals and some decent finishes at Worlds/Olympics. You find their haul paltry and their lack of World medals depressing? Well, without them the US would have nothing. Not even cruddy GP medals.

Maybe it's 'cause I'm Canadian and our ladies... But what do you want that dreaded 2008 generation to do? They certainly didn't want to "choke." And the truth is, sending anyone that's not them (with the exception of that one case where Flatt was fined :scratch would've done no good.

And no, Ashley didn't save her own hide with the third spot. I suspect she would've gotten the nod over Polina had there been two spots.

 

[Parsifal3363]

I agree that reputation has become too important, especially when it can be played arbitrarily, like a wild card, and skew the results of a competition. I would prefer to see figure skaters judged on the basis of what they do that evening, but I understand why judges have always considered the reputation of a skater in their scoring. The evening of a competition may be filled with borderline edge and rotation calls and the continuing difficulty of quantifying an overall artistic impression. A skater’s reputation is like a certification of that skater’s approach to skating. If the skater brings the same approach to a competition, which has been validated so often at previous competitions, the judges feel more comfortable in resolving those ambiguities in the skater’s favor.

Of course, in skating as in life, reputations can be tarnished and even ruined.

The problem for the sport is that the format of the scoring itself, with its categories and numbers, suggests something that is entirely objective when it is not and probably never will be, while human beings sit in judgment of other human beings. And since judges are simply people, too, that card may be played for reasons other than the good of skating or the skater.

When Polina said that she was glad to be going into World’s as Four Continents champion and wanted to be considered as a podium contender, she was implicitly acknowledging this aspect. For her, after the false start of the Grand Prix season, she’s beginning again the process of winning an international reputation, something that Ashley Wagner and Gracie Gold have already gone through. The Four Continents was a good first step. If she skates no better at World’s than she did there, she can anticipate getting better scores for that reason alone. If she has a clean short program, she should skate her free skate with the elite flight of skaters, which will provide an opportunity for still higher scores. Even with that, however, if she places fifth or sixth, it would be a remarkable accomplishment for her but another step towards her goals.

Could she do even better? Yes, certainly. Nothing is written until the evening of the competition, with its vagaries, and it is difficult to compare the scores from one competition to another, as between the European Championships and the Four Continents, when there are subjective factors involved. The only real test is when skaters perform at the same venue before the same panel of judges. That’s why this forthcoming championship is so intriguing and could be much closer than many anticipate. If she did reach the podium, though, it would be like lightening striking.

As a fan of hers, I would simply want her to continue to mature as an artist and a person. I would want her to continue the process of investing herself, imaginatively and emotionally, into a program I find spiritually uplifting and exquisitely nuanced. I’m more interested in what happens three years from now than later this month, and more interested still in what happens all the years after that. If her progress continues and is reflected at World’s, then I would let be what will be.

But lightening does strike.

 

[R.D.]

They didn't step up to the plate, no... but neither did anyone else. Gold didn't in 2014. Why single out just the Wagner/Nagasu/Flatt/Zhang group? Without Wagner, USA would be short a spot at the Olympics, short a few GPs medals (including gold), short some GPF medals... Even the "disappointment" Nagasu has GP medals and some decent finishes at Worlds/Olympics.

BTW, I did mention Gold. And yes, the 2008 generation has had its successes on the GP, but it ends there. If you look at the past top US women, the vast majority of them have at least one world or (individual) Olympic medal, and many have world or Olympic title(s). If we classify Wagner as a top US woman now (which, with 3 titles in 4 years, she seems to have earned such a classification) and evaluate her career in a vacuum, she's had a moderate amount of success. But measure her by the barometer of past US stars and she falls a bit short. No world medal (yet, at least). It's all relative TBH.

This is not to downplay what she has managed to achieve in her 8 years, which has made her one of, if not the, most decorated US lad(ies) in this post-2006 era - but just to put things in the perspective that a lot of US fans have.

But what do you want that dreaded 2008 generation to do? They certainly didn't want to "choke." And the truth is, sending anyone that's not them (with the exception of that one case where Flatt was fined :scratch would've done no good.

It's simply stating facts, though - bottom line is they did...whether they wanted to or not is irrelevant - it happened!

And yes, it's the state of the US field in general that was mediocre. Not to single any of this era's skaters out.

Things are looking up for US skating - the ladies are finally starting to up the difficulty to catch up with the world's best - but at the end of the day, if our top ladies can't deliver under pressure, we will continue in this drought indefinitely.

And no, Ashley didn't save her own hide with the third spot. I suspect she would've gotten the nod over Polina had there been two spots.

Not sure I agree. A big contributing reason to Wagner getting picked, IMHO, was her efforts in getting back the 3rd spot the previous year. Flash back to 2010 where similarly, Wagner had the stronger GP season and GPF qualification compared to Nagasu, who suddenly had the skate(s) of her life at Nationals. Wagner did NOT get the nod over Nagasu for the 2010 team despite her overall stronger record at that point. In 2013, Wagner would have had to have been 8th or lower (assuming Gold stayed 6th) for there to be 2 spots. There really would have been no reason to elevate Wagner in that case so I'm pretty sure Gold and Edmunds would have been the team.

 

[R.D.]

I agree that reputation has become too important, especially when it can be played arbitrarily, like a wild card, and skew the results of a competition. I would prefer to see figure skaters judged on the basis of what they do that evening, but I understand why judges have always considered the reputation of a skater in their scoring. The evening of a competition may be filled with borderline edge and rotation calls and the continuing difficulty of quantifying an overall artistic impression. A skater’s reputation is like a certification of that skater’s approach to skating. If the skater brings the same approach to a competition, which has been validated so often at previous competitions, the judges feel more comfortable in resolving those ambiguities in the skater’s favor.

Of course, in skating as in life, reputations can be tarnished and even ruined.

The problem for the sport is that the format of the scoring itself, with its categories and numbers, suggests something that is entirely objective when it is not and probably never will be, while human beings sit in judgment of other human beings. And since judges are simply people, too, that card may be played for reasons other than the good of skating or the skater.

When Polina said that she was glad to be going into World’s as Four Continents champion and wanted to be considered as a podium contender, she was implicitly acknowledging this aspect. For her, after the false start of the Grand Prix season, she’s beginning again the process of winning an international reputation, something that Ashley Wagner and Gracie Gold have already gone through. The Four Continents was a good first step. If she skates no better at World’s than she did there, she can anticipate getting better scores for that reason alone. If she has a clean short program, she should skate her free skate with the elite flight of skaters, which will provide an opportunity for still higher scores. Even with that, however, if she places fifth or sixth, it would be a remarkable accomplishment for her but another step towards her goals.

Could she do even better? Yes, certainly. Nothing is written until the evening of the competition, with its vagaries, and it is difficult to compare the scores from one competition to another, as between the European Championships and the Four Continents, when there are subjective factors involved. The only real test is when skaters perform at the same venue before the same panel of judges. That’s why this forthcoming championship is so intriguing and could be much closer than many anticipate.

Edmunds openly talks about this phenomenon, one which I'm sure is accepted or taken for granted by most if not all skaters.

It's disappointing but not surprising.

 

[Parsifal3363]

In the recent interview she gave to The Skating Lesson after winning the Four Continents, Polina said that everyone works so hard and everyone is the same in that regard. A medal is the reward for that competition, but a new competition is a new ball game.

“I feel that you’re not coming to compete with titles, but with what you can do on that day. And so that’s kind of what I hope the competition will be like, and I’m hoping that it’s not going to be, you know, that this person has this reputation and that’s why she’s going to be on top.”

Whether it was brave or foolish of her to say aloud what so many think, the truth is that scoring is affected by reputations and titles and so many things other than what a skater does on the ice. For example, consider Polina’s own experience at the NHK Trophy.

She had skated poorly in the short program, but when she came off the ice after her free skate, the commentators for British Eurosports were rhapsodic:

“But what a fabulous performance from Polina Edmunds and what a difference a day makes!”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSlp6h8QRaM

They saw seven lovely, quality triple jumps, super spins, and a lovely grace and artistry demonstrated with lovely skating skills. It was the whole package, they said, but there was a question, “What will the judges do with that?” They thought that she had to be given the points under the new judging system, and they expected that her score here would push her previous high score in the free skate of 126.91, which had been set at the World Championships earlier in the year. But would there be a “psychological effect” on the judges, for her skating so early? There shouldn’t be, one said, but there might be some “slight” tendency to hold back.

When the score was announced, it was shock: 59.29 for technical elements, 53.54 for presentation, for a total of 112.83. Polina’s disappointment was obvious. The commentators could only draw on the British gift for understatement:

“It deserved a bit more than that.”

It did, of course, though probably not the 122.99 she scored at the Four Continents last month, when her presentation found a new level of refinement. Even there, however, she was arguably underscored. There seemed to be a need to place her above Rika Hongo, who had already skated, while leaving a margin in which Satoko Miyahara, Zijun Li, and Gracie Gold, who had yet to skate, could be marked higher than her, if that was desirable.

If nothing else, it was a demonstration, yet again, that while the scores are rendered in numbers, when numbers signify objective standards, the factors which go into the scores are sometimes unstated and highly subjective.

What is ironic is that Polina will be going into the World Championships this time with her own title. She’ll want to be judged on the difficulty of her programs and her skill and artistry in presenting them, but even if that were to be, what happens those evenings may depend in part on what happened on other evenings past.

 

[[email protected]]

As Liza's and Yulia's examples show reputation can be built and lost within a couple of months and 2-3 competitions. If Polina this season so far had fewer than 50% clean skates, it is part of what a skater she is this season. No one prevents her from building up the momentum after the 4CC win. If she is clean again it will play its part in her worlds scores, I am sure. If not, she will be considered as an inconsistent skater who has yet to prove herself. This reputation thing was always the case in all disciplines of FS as long as I can remember (since the 70s). It works for and against the skaters from all the countries, the Soviet Union and Russia included. I see no point in making an exception to this rule in the specific Polina Edmunds' case.

 

[Taan]

Polina Edmunds, boosted by recent win, hopes reputation doesn’t impact Worlds
http://olympictalk.nbcsports.com/20...figure-skating-championships-winter-olympics/

She expects to win a medal at the World Championships next week. She believes that those outside her camp are giving her a better chance now, too, after she won the Four Continents Championship over 2014 U.S. champion Gracie Gold and top Japanese skaters in February....
“Mostly, I just don’t want to be on the podium if I don’t skate well [at Worlds],” she said. “I hope that people who don’t skate well, I’m hoping they’re not going to be on the podium, either. It should be who skates the best. And it shouldn’t be so political with who has what titles going into this.”

Edmunds said she’s dealt with skating’s off-ice politics “for years,” since she was a junior. She said somebody once tried to tell her to change her costume and her music she had been using that season just before the U.S. Championships.

“They want a little piece of me, and see if I can change anything, and then they can take the credit for it,” she said. “Not in a bad way, all people try to give their input in. Maybe they don’t like this about my music, my costume.

“I know that if I skate well, all those little things don’t matter.”

 

[andromache]

I think Polina's willingness to talk about reputation scoring is pretty admirable, honestly, because I think a lot of fans find reputation scoring to be disappointing sometimes (I know I do.)

On the other hand, I'd rather see her discussing what aspects of her skating she'd like to improve upon as Ashley Wagner has done. I'm glad she likes her packaging and she certainly doesn't need to "work" on that if she's happy with what she's doing, but other aspects of her skating do need work. I think Polina's confidence is endearing coming from a 16 year old who wants to prove herself, but there's a fine line between confidence and arrogance (which she hasn't crossed yet).

Anyway, I'm really enjoying seeing some ladies in this sport who don't hold back on their opinions!

 

[shine]

Yeah, while I don't find anything wrong with her programs and really like her confidence, I would like her to work on a few things, including getting rid of the telegraphing, adding more power and speed to her skating, and improving her Axel and loop.

 

[jenaj]

In the recent interview she gave to The Skating Lesson after winning the Four Continents, Polina said that everyone works so hard and everyone is the same in that regard. A medal is the reward for that competition, but a new competition is a new ball game.

“I feel that you’re not coming to compete with titles, but with what you can do on that day. And so that’s kind of what I hope the competition will be like, and I’m hoping that it’s not going to be, you know, that this person has this reputation and that’s why she’s going to be on top.”

Whether it was brave or foolish of her to say aloud what so many think, the truth is that scoring is affected by reputations and titles and so many things other than what a skater does on the ice. For example, consider Polina’s own experience at the NHK Trophy.

She had skated poorly in the short program, but when she came off the ice after her free skate, the commentators for British Eurosports were rhapsodic:

“But what a fabulous performance from Polina Edmunds and what a difference a day makes!”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSlp6h8QRaM

They saw seven lovely, quality triple jumps, super spins, and a lovely grace and artistry demonstrated with lovely skating skills. It was the whole package, they said, but there was a question, “What will the judges do with that?” They thought that she had to be given the points under the new judging system, and they expected that her score here would push her previous high score in the free skate of 126.91, which had been set at the World Championships earlier in the year. But would there be a “psychological effect” on the judges, for her skating so early? There shouldn’t be, one said, but there might be some “slight” tendency to hold back.

When the score was announced, it was shock: 59.29 for technical elements, 53.54 for presentation, for a total of 112.83. Polina’s disappointment was obvious. The commentators could only draw on the British gift for understatement:

“It deserved a bit more than that.”

It did, of course, though probably not the 122.99 she scored at the Four Continents last month, when her presentation found a new level of refinement. Even there, however, she was arguably underscored. There seemed to be a need to place her above Rika Hongo, who had already skated, while leaving a margin in which Satoko Miyahara, Zijun Li, and Gracie Gold, who had yet to skate, could be marked higher than her, if that was desirable.

If nothing else, it was a demonstration, yet again, that while the scores are rendered in numbers, when numbers signify objective standards, the factors which go into the scores are sometimes unstated and highly subjective.

What is ironic is that Polina will be going into the World Championships this time with her own title. She’ll want to be judged on the difficulty of her programs and her skill and artistry in presenting them, but even if that were to be, what happens those evenings may depend in part on what happened on other evenings past.

Gosh, this impassioned defense could have been written by a member of Polina's team. I do agree that her PCS was a bit low at NHK, but would have to see the protocols to understand the tech score. There must have been some issues. I don't think her scores are affected by reputation. Did she lose the bronze to Karen Chen at Nationals because of reputation?