Maybe it would be a decent thing to let her finish her first JGP before you remove the second spot from her.
lets just say skaters with underrotations will have a very difficult time getting even a chance to podium....
Maybe it would be a decent thing to let her finish her first JGP before you remove the second spot from her.
lets just say skaters with underrotations will have a very difficult time getting even a chance to podium....
Current assignments
JGP Russia
Men: Petr GUMENNIK (1st event), Georgy KUNITSA (1st), Alexander SAMARIN (1st)
Ladies: Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA (1st), Elizaveta NUGUMANOVA (1st), Polina TSURSKAYA (1st)
Pairs: Aleksandra BOIKOVA / Dmitrii KOZLOVSKII (1st), Ekaterina BORISOVA / Dmitry SOPOT (1st), Anastasia MISHINA / Vladislav MIRZOEV (1st)
Ice dance: Eva KUTS / Dmitrii MIKHAILOV (1st), Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD (1st), Sofia SHEVCHENKO / Igor EREMENKO (2nd)
JGP Slovenia
Men: Dmitri ALIEV (2nd), Ilia SKIRDA (2nd)
Ladies: Alisa LOZKO (2nd), Alina ZAGITOVA (2nd)
Ice dance: Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV (2nd), Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN (1st)
JGP Estonia
Men: Petr GUMENNIK (2nd), Georgy KUNITSA (2nd)
Ladies: Elizaveta NUGUMANOVA (2nd), Polina TSURSKAYA (2nd)
Pairs: Amina ATAKHANOVA / Ilia SPIRIDONOV (2nd), Ekaterina BORISOVA / Dmitry SOPOT (2nd), Alina USTIMKINA / Nikita VOLODIN (1st)
Ice dance: Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD (2nd), Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN (2nd)
JGP Germany
Men: Alexey EROKHOV (2nd), Alexander SAMARIN (2nd)
Ladies: Anastasiia GUBANOVA (2nd), Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA (2nd)
Pairs: Anastasia MISHINA / Vladislav MIRZOEV (2nd), Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Maksim SELKIN (2nd), Alina USTIMKINA / Nikita VOLODIN (2nd)
Ice dance: Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV (2nd), Arina USHAKOVA / Maxim NEKRASOV (2nd)
I only hope that Gubanova will find the way to be more stable. She is like angel on the ice. Always enjoy to see how she is skating and always painful/worrisome how she is jumping.
will they replace Lozko next week with Sofia ? really bad strategy if they put in Lozko
Hey, mr. twix, I guess we know who will compete
Alina Zagitova, Anastasia Gubanova, Polina Tsurskaya, Stanislava Konstantinova - no doubt.
4 spots of 6.
Alisa Lozko (3rd), Elizaveta Nugumanova (3rd), Sonya Samodurova (4th).
One spot will get Alisa or Liza.
But remains one - and question is the worthiness to put Samodurova with 4th place instead these two girls with 3rd place. Considering her jumps which much better. 4+2, 4+3, or 3+2, 3+3, or 3+4 - very hard math. All depends on the Japanese girls results.
its not about placements but the scoring
Sofia scored higher with her 4th place finish than Lozko and Nugumanova's bronzes, plus she wont be dinged with multiple underrotations.
Sneaky!Then comes more difficult case of Konstantinova. If the Japanese do not change the layout and Kihira is first or second in Lyubliana it makes sense to move Gubanova out of Dresden and hope that Konstantinova wins over Shiraiwa once again. Then either Honda or Kihira will be out and we will have 4 girls in the final.
I think you are wrong with that bit. At every event there will be two Japanese girls. Let's hope that Zagitova/GUbanova/Tsurskaya manage to beat them, but the role of the second Russian lady is also important. If you send Lozko, with her score of 160 she will very likely place below those Japanese ladies. If you send Nugumanova, there is slight chance that she may beat some of them, but if you send Samodurova, the chances are pretty decent that with score 180 she may beat them. Samodurova placing second would mean that the Japanese ladies at that event would be third and fourt, which means reducing their chance of JGPF and increasing chances for another Russian girl, even if Samodurova herself would not get in. As you said, neither Lozko, nor Nugumanova or Samodurova will get to JGPF, so it does have a sense to send there a high scoring second ladies to keep others from JGPF and help Russian team.At this point there are 10 medalists for 5 JGPF left. So it makes no sense to bring Samodurova in. Lozko has no chances. And Nugumanova as well. They have to win in the fields where their wins are unlikely.
Very high chances Zagitova, Gubanova, and Tsurskaya. They are fine with bronze at the next competition. Then comes more difficult case of Konstantinova. If the Japanese do not change the layout and Kihira is first or second in Lyubliana it makes sense to move Gubanova out of Dresden and hope that Konstantinova wins over Shiraiwa once again. Then either Honda or Kihira will be out and we will have 4 girls in the final.
Alas, realistically no hopes for Nugumanova and Lozko. The key thing is to get Konstantinova there. Samodurova is out of question. Even 1+4 is not enough.
I think you are wrong with that bit. At every event there will be two Japanese girls. Let's hope that Zagitova/GUbanova/Tsurskaya manage to beat them, but the role of the second Russian lady is also important. If you send Lozko, with her score of 160 she will very likely place below those Japanese ladies. If you send Nugumanova, there is slight chance that she may beat some of them, but if you send Samodurova, the chances are pretty decent that with score 180 she may beat them. Samodurova placing second would mean that the Japanese ladies at that event would be third and fourt, which means reducing their chance of JGPF and increasing chances for another Russian girl, even if Samodurova herself would not get in. As you said, neither Lozko, nor Nugumanova or Samodurova will get to JGPF, so it does have a sense to send there a high scoring second ladies to keep others from JGPF and help Russian team.
Yes, but there is also a possibility that Sofia would beat the other Russian girl which is something that is not desired at this point. Sofia was underscored at Japan, or the japanese were overscored, in any case she can score really high and it is not out of the question that she could beat Alina, Nastia or Polina if placed at the same event. Russia really should play it safe here and not replace Alisa L or Liza with Sofia.
What they really should consider is replacing Nastia with Liza at the last event so that it would be more likely that Stasya would win that event but this is only needed if Alina doesn't beat either of the japanese girls at JGP Slovenia.
Sneaky!
What JpnFeds should do immediately is to move Honda or Kihira to Germany - there is no sense in having them competing against each other in Lyublyana. The loser of this duel will be at the mercy of Russians.
Overall, at this moment with high probability Sakamoto, Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Gubanova are in the final and the triangle of Honda, Kihira and Konstantinova fight for last two spots. Anybody else is practically out.
In that case, Shiraiwa's win would be a "team win": she'd be out anyway, but would give loser of Honda/Kihira duel from Lyblyana the last spot (assuming 2-2 Honda/Kihira holds the tie-breaker over Russian 2-2 girl, which is very likely).I reconsidered: if the Japanese stay as of today and Nugumanova switches with Gubanova the key triangle will be in Dresden: Konstantinova, Nugumanova, Shiraiwa. If Nugumanova wins she will have 3+1 and even if Konstantinova is second she will be lower with 2+2. Of course, if Konstantinova wins she will be in with 2+1. The key will be to not let Shiraiwa win which is of course a challenge but not as big as skating against Honda or Kihira.
In that case, Shiraiwa's win would be a "team win": she'd be out anyway, but would give loser of Honda/Kihira duel from Lyblyana the last spot (assuming 2-2 Honda/Kihira holds the tie-breaker over Russian 2-2 girl, which is very likely).