Predictions Time!

[floskate]

Why is everyone dismissing Ando now CoP is in? Don't you think that she, Mr Sato and Lea Ann Miller took the criteria into account when putting together her new programs? I could understand these predictions of gloom last season over Yoshie Onda but Ando is light years ahead in every department. She's hardly like a truck out there is she? :\

 

[hockeyfan228]

Why is everyone dismissing Ando now CoP is in?

The biggest jumps, and therefore, the biggest potential point values, in Ando's arsenal are the 3Z/3R combo and the 4S. Since like everyone else who's done a 3R at the end of the combo, she prerotates it on the ice, and her 4S is underrotated. The questions are whether under CoP,

a. Her 3Z/3R will be called a 3Z/2R with required GOE deduction as well.

b. Alternately, if her 3Z/3R will be called a 3Z/3R, but with a .25 or less underrotation, which is a required -2 deduction to GOE.

c. Her 4S will be called a 3S with required GOE deduction, and if she does a solo 3S later, if it will receive no points because of a Zayak rule violation.

If any of these happen under CoP, she'll lose some of her technical advantage. Under 6.0/OBO, at least at Worlds last year, attempts appeared to receive close to full credit. I think she'll get a reputation bounce under Program Elements based on her 4th place finish at Worlds.

 

[floskate]

Thanks hockeyfan228. Those same penalties apply to all the skaters doing big combos, so Shizuka could be in line for a deduction there too. It just depends on the day doesn't it?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Under CoP, the Caller's word as affirmed by his cohorts, is the official for calling underrotated jumps. The call is in the eye of the beholder - the Caller. His cohorts will argue with him? Let's see.

Joe

 

[hockeyfan228]

Thanks hockeyfan228. Those same penalties apply to all the skaters doing big combos, so Shizuka could be in line for a deduction there too. It just depends on the day doesn't it?

I don't remember Arakawa's jumps in the qualis or LP at Worlds being cheated, but her combo and 3F in the SP were, and under properly marked CoP, she would have received downgrades and/or deductions for both. The difference is that Arakawa has landed the combinations and jumps without cheating, but Ando hasn't landed a fully rotated 4S, and a cheat in an ending 3R is pretty standard, which Ando did three times in Dortmund.

 

[hockeyfan228]

Under CoP, the Caller's word as affirmed by his cohorts, is the official for calling underrotated jumps. The call is in the eye of the beholder - the Caller. His cohorts will argue with him? Let's see.

Joe

Originally, there were two others with whom the caller verified the calls, but because there was so much discussion among the three over the headsets, the ISU changed that to one other. Plus, there is instant replay, which is used frequently. The judges also can object that a jump was rotated properly and should not be downgraded, and the caller is responsible for validating the call.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Originally, there were two others with whom the caller verified the calls, but because there was so much discussion among the three over the headsets, the ISU changed that to one other. Plus, there is instant replay, which is used frequently. The judges also can object that a jump was rotated properly and should not be downgraded, and the caller is responsible for validating the call.

Thanks Hockeyfan - I didn't know they had changed the set up of the Caller and the assistants. From what you say, it all looks good in principle, and if a judge can object to a call, then the Caller loses some power. No one wants to see what happened to Serena happen in figure skating.

Joe

 

[Miriam Boo]

I don't expect any surprises in pairs and dance, but there may be some surprises in the singles...both men and ladies if we're lucky. I'm really not a fan of ice dancing, as the results usually adhere to ranking & reputation. I don't pay much attention to the ice dance event, so I believe the top 3, according to their finish at Worlds should be:

1. Grushina/ Goncharov 2. Belbin/Agosto 3. Chait/Sharovsky

The pairs results will be just as predictable:

1. Totmianina/ Marinin 2. Petrova/Tikhonov 3. Zhang/Zhang


Now for the more interesting stuff:

The mens competition:

1. Joubert 2. Takahashi 3. Weiss

Well...my prediction for the men may appear a little "off the wall", but anything can happen this early in the season. I think that Daisuke Takahashi, the 2002 World Jr Champ, will improve by leaps & bounds this season. He has nice artistry and a couple of quads in his arsenal. I really didn't want to predict Joubert as the winner, as he usually starts very slow in the GP series. Also, I believe Lindemann is a one hit wonder...I may very well be wrong...who knows? However, there are other men who may surprise such as Griazev & Lysacek.

The ladies competition:

1. Kwan 2. Ando 3. Ota

It will not be surprising if Kwan wins, but the battle for the remainder of the podium may render some surprises. I believe Cohen will miss the podium by failing to complete some difficult jump combinations...give her credit for attempting to up the ante. However, I don't think the COP will hurt Ando as much as many have predicted. Her technical merit should help her keep the heat on Kwan for the gold medal. Also, Ando is a very soft skater with a classical style of skating...she's better than her free program at Worlds. It's true that she is not expressive enough, and she did exhibit a lack of endurance in her free skate at Worlds. However, who wouldn't be fatigued after skating that technically packed program? She should improve dramatically with experience in the senior ranks. Also, I see the COP didn't prevent Mao Asada from winning handily at the Long Beach Jr Grand Prix event with technically difficult programs.
My pick for Yukina to win the bronze medal may appear far-fetched to most of you, and I plead guilty to being an Ota fan. This may be wishful thinking on my part with a bit of reality mixed in...I would like to predict Ota to win SA, but Kwan is skating on home ice. As an Ota fan, I'm pulling for a big upset here, but I know Yukina's weakness is her jumping...particularly the flip jump. I'm just praying for a miracle, as Yukina will need to place high at SA and Cup of China to even make it on the Japanese team for Worlds. I think she's very well aware of this, and I'm hoping that she will respond accordingly.

 

[thisthingcalledlove]

C&S are a safer bet, I know, but again I'm unscientific. A dance podium without Russians just doesn't exist in my world. Sorta like saying a woman or an African-American is gonna be the next president. It's not impossible, but I'm just too pessimistic to see it happening in my lifetime.

Never say never. the 2000 world podium was devoid of any russians...wait...hold on...i'm wrong. marina anissina and rita drobiazko are both russian-born... darn it!

 

[Peaches1972]

Predictions

Changing Predictions due to withdrawls For Skate America:

LADIES
Ando
Nikodinov
Ota or Phaneuf


MEN
Joubert
Jahnke
Weiss

PAIRS
Totmianina/Marinin
Zhang/Zhang
Don/Hunt

DANCE
Belbin/Agosto
Chait/Sakhonovsky
Wing/Lowe

 

[euterpe]

Now that Campbell's is in the can I'd like to revisit my earlier Skate America predictions:

:
LADIES
Kwan - She's ready and primed for action.
Cohen - She'll probably make the podium, but she's still a bit shaky
Ando - She definitely needs to work on elements other than jumps. She can't rely on just jumps especially if she continues to underrotate her money jumps. Her presentation skills are juniorish and she lacks musicality. She might make the podium if she can do enough technically to make up for low SC scores and the next 3 skaters falter
Ota / Poykio / Liashenko- Depends on whether they're ready for this.

MEN
Joubert - He should be able to win this
Lindemann - Could also win, IF he's in the form he showed at Dortmund. If he's not ready for this, he may well be off the podium.Jahnke / Lysacek - MUST be ready and in good shape to contend.
Weiss - Probably not. His main focus now is elsewhere (SOI).

PAIRS - Am sticking with my original predictions for the top 4.
Totmianina/Marinin
Zhang/Zhang
Petrova/Tikhonov
Obertas/Slavnov
Don/Hunt - More of a hope than a prediction.

DANCE
Belbin/Agosto - Apparently their new program is a huge improvement over WSS and they are looking for a repeat of their gold medal performance at SA last season.
Grushina/Goncharov
Chait/Sakhonovsky
Kerr/Kerr
Romanovskaya/Grachev or Kulikova/Novikov

 

[Mathman]

I'll say Kwan, Ota, Cohen, with strong performances by Poykio and Phaneuf.

MM

 

[egskater0003]

My predictions

Well now that I've seen campbells (live) I think the top 3 at SA will be:

1.Michelle
2.Sasha
3.Yukina if she lands all her jumps otherwise Miki because she probably will land all her jumps and they are more difficult than the rest of the field.

 

[ladybug]

After reading all the great posts from Campbells, I will have to say

Michelle
Sasha
Miki

I think the judges like Miki and will reward her jumps but I personally think Ota is a more complete skater. Will be interesting to see what the judges and COP think. Also will be interesting to see how the new scoring system treats Michelle. I think this competition will make a lot of decisions for her. Hope she skates well because that is the only way she will know how well she fairs with the new system.

 

[Jaana]

Oh my, GP predictions generally are a lot harder in men as Plushenko is not competing (unless in Cup of Russia), LOL.

WOW, great that we can participate in Goldpick contests again!!!

Marjaana

 

[merrywidow]

Now that it is closer to the competition & we know that some people originally listed will not be there, this is how I see the medals:
Cohen; Ando; Ota.
Weiss; Joubert; Lysacek
Totmianina/Marinin; Zhangs; Petrova/Tikhanov
Belbin/Agosto; Chait/Sakhnovsky; Wing/Lowe

 

[itofan]

Ladies

1. Miki Ando
2. Sasha Cohen
3. Elena Liashenko
4. Yukina Ota
5. Susanna Poykio
6. Cynthia Phaneuf

Men

1. Brian Joubert
2. Michael Wiess
3. Stehan Lindemann
4. Evan Lysacek
5. Alexander Shubin
6. Roman Serov

Pairs

1. Totminaina & Marinin
2. Zhang & Zhang
3. Petrova & Tikhonov
4. Obertas & Slavnov
5. Don & Hunt
6. Inoue & Baldwin jr.

Dance

1. Belbin & Agosto
2. Chait & Sakhnovsky
3. Kulikova & Novikov
4. Kerr & Kerr
5. Romanovskaya & Grachev
6. Wing & Lowe

 

[brenlynn]

i could honestly care less what happens as long as Orscher & Lucash finish top 6 in pairs. after seeing them this past weekend, i noted some big improvements in them so far this season versus when i last saw them skate in may. faster, better unison, improved line and extension, and lifts are more secure. just have to worry about the sbs jumps.

i saw don and hunt at evening with champions and they were very, very bleh. they looked sloppy and weren't skating much like a pair. john looks like he is struggling with lifting her.

i just want the US pairs to do good, namely katie and garrett

 

[mpal2]

Jennifer Don is recovering from a back injury. I don't expect them to look great at this point. We will see what happens at Nationals though.

 

[brenlynn]

Jennifer Don is recovering from a back injury. I don't expect them to look great at this point. We will see what happens at Nationals though.

i wasn't aware of that. i hope she feels better soon though. this team seems to have some bad luck with injuries.