Predictions!

[Tonichelle]

So, are you saying you believe Kevin Van Der Perren, Ryan Bradley, and Miki Ando should receive outrageous PCS marks just because they are renowned jumpers

I think Ryan should win it all because he's cute

anyone wanting to predict the outcome of the event? I seem to recall that's what this thread was originally made for.

I'm predicting more of the same in each disipline... this year has been quite interesting in terms of the skating... will Joubert be like all of the other supposed shoo-ins and miss the mark?

 

[shine]

Your answer is just based on assumptions, not facts. Do you truly believe MK should receive the same high SS when she returns with only double jumps? Skating is not about prancing around with no jumps
Laughable.

Excuse me, which part of my answer is based on assumptions exactly?

Wouldn't YOUR response be more of an assumption when you ASSUME that MK will come back and ASSUME that she will come back with double jumps only? Moreover, why are you ASSUMING that I said skating was about "prancing around with no jumps"?

 

[fiercemao]

Excuse me, which part of my answer is based on assumptions exactly?

Wouldn't YOUR response be more of an assumption when you ASSUME that MK will come back and ASSUME that she will come back with double jumps only? Moreover, why are you ASSUMING that I said skating was about "prancing around with no jumps"?

Your assumption is that the SS of skaters with only double jumps is poor, thus the low PCS. But to justify Joanne should get high SS, you also argue that jumps are not necessary the indicators of SS. Lots of strange twist to justify your assumptions.

My argument is that skaters with low technical content do not deserve high PCS, since the current TES scoring does not fully compensate for skaters who take risks to do difficult elements.

 

[Tonichelle]

anyone wanting to predict the outcome of the event? I seem to recall that's what this thread was originally made for.

or not. *sigh*

 

[shine]

Your assumption is that the SS of skaters with only double jumps is poor, thus the low PCS.

Actually, I said skaters doing only double jumps MOST LIKELY are not the ones skating at the elite world level, and naturally their SS wouldn't be high. There are some exceptions to this, so I did not say it as a FACT. If Gordeeva was competing in singles today, I would think she has the ability to generate extremely high PCS even if she only does double jumps, but that is not the NORM in singles skating, and hence you don't expect to see that happen.

But still, technically ANY skater should be able to get high SS if they satisfy all requirements of the SS criteria, regardless of the jumps. That is NOT an assumption, that is a FACT. If you need directions to proof, I will kindly point you to the ISU rule book on PCS criteria.

But to justify Joanne should get high SS, you also argue that jumps are not necessary the indicators of SS. Lots of strange twist to justify your assumptions.

To justify that Joannie should get high SS, I have a ton of reasons and never needed THAT to do so. DO NOT put words in my mouth. The reason I said jumps are not a good indicator of SS is because chuckm pointed out that Joannie's skating does not warrant the PCS she received BECAUSE she does not have a harder jump content.

My argument is that skaters with low technical content do not deserve high PCS

And I tend to agree. But for all I know, Joannie Rochette does NOT have low techinical content, in jumps or otherwise.

But then I am not very sure how your logic works or how it can be fixed, so I won't try to help you out anymore.

 

[museksk8r]

I think Ryan should win it all because he's cute

Hey now, if competitions were based on cuteness, then you know Fedor Andreev, Maxim Trankov, Alexander Smirnov, Charlie White, Scott Moir, Jeremy Abbott, Yannick Ponsero, Shawn Sawyer, Kristoffer Berntsson, Andrei Griazev, Sergei Dobrin, Tomas Verner, Bryce Davison, Fabian Bourzat, Craig Buntin, Roman Zaretsky, Robin Szolkowy, Alexander Uspenski, and Adam Rippon would be winning everything in sight. I wouldn't be able to choose between them, so I would award them all GOLD medals! A 19-way tie!

And I tend to agree. But for all I know, Joannie Rochette does NOT have low techinical content, in jumps or otherwise.

Exactly! She has the full arsenal of triples minus the 3Axel, which NO lady in the world does cleanly on a consistent basis. Yukari is known to consistently under-rotate it or double it and Mao is known to consistently two-foot it, pop it into a double, or fall on it. Joannie does clean 3flip+3toe combos in practices and warm-ups, but has not yet been credited with landing it in competition. In this Olympic cycle since 2007, she is one of the few female skaters in the world who regularly gets credit for landing 5 to 7 triples in a LP. Her technique is known to be stronger and cleaner than many skaters who supposedly have the big name tricks. You don't see Joannie getting called for wrong edge entries or under-rotations the way you do with many other skaters. She scores 60+ in TES for the LP very often.

 

[waxel]

Hey museksk8r, pretty good list!

 

[dancingqueen]

Well, people will think whatever they want to think.
Freedom of thinking. LOL

If the if competitions were based on cuteness, then you know in my case, It’s no competition, Johnny wins every time.


My prediction

Men

1. Joubert ( Because it’s Joubert )
2. Chan
3. Kozuka or Alban Preaubert

But whoever wins, I’m fine.

I’m not so crazy for other events but I’m looking forward to seeing Mao Asada and Elene Gedevanishvili ‘s in Ladies. Mukortova/Trankov in pairs.

 

[Buttercup]

anyone wanting to predict the outcome of the event? I seem to recall that's what this thread was originally made for.

Yes. I predict the following:
1. D/S will win in the dance, because they are D/S and it's in France.
2. Mao will win the ladies, for every obvious reason you can think of.
3. John Kerr wil look good in his kilt (in the EX).
4. People will take issue with the PCS of whatever skater they happen to dislike being too high, and the PCS for their favorite being too low.

I consider these four predictions the safest possible bets for TEB, unless John and Sinead do a different exhibition number.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

My argument is that skaters with low technical content do not deserve high PCS, since the current TES scoring does not fully compensate for skaters who take risks to do difficult elements.

They don't get high PC scores. PC scores are based on the Program content.
A quad for the boys and a 3A for the gals shows more than just skating ability.

Fans of Kwan and Cohen have to realize that that style of skating is no more a winning do. Pretty skating is not reflected in the PC scores; some of it talks about little things like musicality, and reaching out to the audience, but the bottom line is Quads and 3As.

 

[siberia82]

I think Ryan should win it all because he's cute

Funnily enough, I only thought he was slightly above average in terms of looks (although I've always enjoyed his fun programs) before I saw him live at SC. But the guy's charisma is so vibrant that I've developed a major crush on him. I even felt the need to shout out just before he took his opening pose for his LP, "You're hot, Ryan!!!" (I'm usually too shy to do something that "fan girlish"!) I hope he noticed that the Canadian crowd ADORED him as if he were one of our own!

I wouldn't be able to choose between them, so I would award them all GOLD medals! A 19-way tie!

I can only speak for myself, but I consider Fedor Andreev to be most drop dead gorgeous creature to have touched a skating rink. I don't think his beauty is human; he must be the Greek god Eros in disguise! (If you're not familar with Greek mythology, Eros was the god of lust.)

If the if competitions were based on cuteness, then you know in my case, It’s no competition, Johnny wins every time.

Johnny is very, very, very pretty. In fact, he's currently on my desktop wallpaper!

 

[Tonichelle]

I said Ryan was *cute* not hot

and I go more with charisma/personality than looks when I look for attractive anyway.

 

[fumie_fumie]

PJ Kwong's pick

Pj’s Picks (CBCSports.ca commentator):

Ice dance: Isabelle Delobel and Olivier Schoenfelder (FRA)
Men: Brian Joubert (FRA)
Ladies: Mao Asada (JPN)
Pairs: Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy (GER)

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/blogs/2008/11/stiff_competition_expected_at.html

 

[chuckm]

Pj’s Picks (CBCSports.ca commentator):

Ice dance: Isabelle Delobel and Olivier Schoenfelder (FRA)
Men: Brian Joubert (FRA)
Ladies: Mao Asada (JPN)
Pairs: Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy (GER)

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/blogs/2008/11/stiff_competition_expected_at.html

Wow, really going out on a limb, isn't she?

 

[fumie_fumie]

Wow, really going out on a limb, isn't she?

Of course. yeah, big deal, eh? Doesn't she confirm what you said all along here? Rochette has a snowball in hell chance of beating Mao.

 

[chuckm]

I never said Rochette had no chance of beating Mao.

It's not very likely, but it isn't completely impossible.

 

[shine]

Of course. yeah, big deal, eh? Doesn't she confirm what you said all along here? Rochette has a snowball in hell chance of beating Mao.

I think so long as you are Canadian, you can't be right for stating the obvious, and will be ridiculed if you predict something more than ordinary.

 

[Andalusia]

I forgot to post my predictions.

Ladies:

1. Mao - She'll be the winner even if she falls twice, minimum. I'm not expecting her to fall, however.
2. Rochette - Probably a few errors here and there, but still good enough for second place. Let's see how the judges score her, then we'll be able to see if she's the anointed one alongside, or to replace, Kostner.
3. Gedevanishvili/Liang/Gimazetdinova - Ranked in order of probability.

Zhang is not medalling if her technique has remained the same, or has gotten worse, since Skate Canada. It'd be better if she isn't on my prediction lists, anyway, as she's usually jinxed when she's on them.

I'm still trying to get into men's skating, so I'll leave that one for later.

 

[siberia82]

Pj’s Picks (CBCSports.ca commentator):

Ice dance: Isabelle Delobel and Olivier Schoenfelder (FRA)
Men: Brian Joubert (FRA)
Ladies: Mao Asada (JPN)
Pairs: Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy (GER)

I only follow the guys, so I can't speak for the other disciplines, but I've noticed that PJ Kwong's picks for the men are far too "obvious" during a season where unpredictability is the norm. I think she failed to take into account of the fact that this is the Year of the Underdog! I only became a figure skating fan in January, but so far I've done a much better job predicting the male winners than she has!

Her pick for SA was Johnny Weir: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/blogs/2008/10/the_grand_prix_season_begins.html

Her pick for SC was Evan Lysacek: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/blogs/2008/10/youth_will_be_on_display_at_sk.html

Her pick for CoC was Tomas Verner: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/blogs/2008/11/ice_dance_front_and_centre_at.html

I think Brian Joubert might be cursed!

 

[museksk8r]

Mao certainly is not unbeatable. Remember, she only won her World title by 1 point last season. Carolina was only 1 point behind and Yu-Na was only 2 points behind. Asada has been beaten by Kim on numerous occasions and by Ando. She certainly is not known as a clean SP skater. Going through her recent competitive history, Mao skated a flawed SP at 2007 Worlds, at 2007 Skate Canada, at 2007 Trophee Eric Bompard, at 2007-2008 Grand Prix Final, at 2008 4CC, she placed ahead of Joannie by less than 1 point in the SP when both of their 3+3 combinations were downgraded to 3+2. She was also beaten by Carolina Kostner at the 2008 Worlds SP. Joannie will need to be very close again to Mao like at 4CC or beat her in the SP here at this season's Trophee Eric Bompard to pull off the upset. Asada is also known to be called for flutzing, for two-footing jumps, and for under-rotating jumps. Her 3Axel certainly is not consistent. Anything is possible, I believe. Hopefully, the best skater wins and the scoring is fair. I hope it turns out to be a strong competition.