Rippon says top five finish at Worlds is possible

[Li'Kitsu]

I don't think Adam has much of a choice. Unlike Jason, he won't earn the necessary GOE/PCS for an all-triple skate. His triple axel is unreliable, and even his Rippon lutz doesn't seem to get much GOE love these days. If he wants to fight for that Top 5, he needs the 4Lz. Sure, it could send him spiralling down to 20th place... but what could an all-triple skate give him? 10th place? At this point in his career, it's go big or go home.

While on a personal level I think it's fine if he wants to go for that strategy, what annoys me a little (and that isn't Adams fault) is how people are fine with that, but Jason gets the "he has to skate well enough to keep the 3 spots" treatment. Without the 4Lz but 2 strong skates Adam might actually help keep those 3 spots. Right now I'm not sure he'll get that 4Lz around and under this system, underrotations are among the worst you can do. So I'm not that optimistic about his chances, as I don't think a 4Lz< will impress the judges (even if it's still a monster of a jump).

And his GOE and PCS are lower than f.e. Jasons for a reason, IMO. It's not as if he had no chance about that, they're all just getting points for what they actually do.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Not going to happen since he insists on planning a 4Lz<<.

Ohh that is a little unfair. . . i mean his SP at a nationals and LP at 4CC was only a 4Z<. So not all are <<.

Actually in the long I can tolerate him doing an under rotated 4Z over a 2A or other filler. It is still worth it as it basically can count as an extra 3Z with crappy GOE at worst. The SP is what really annoys me. The rules are the solo jump has to have fancy crap before it (I say fancy crap as I am not qualified to really know what is and is not sufficient, i just know you are supposed to do something) and Adam does not really even seem to try to do that. That is just a slap in the face to the rules and the point of the SP. He is borderline cheating and it does not impress me.

Overall I am with you, there is a limit to how much I am going to be impressed by him trying it. So far he is 4 for 4 of not doing it.

 

[slider11]

I am hopeful that Adam's free skate may evoke some exceptional artistry scores. Those spread eagles, a momentary hesitation perfectly in sync with the music, the boitano jumps. They so perfectly mesh with the music and create such an artistic masterpiece. I know, I know...he needs to land the jumps. If he can and the judges truly look at the impact his performance has, he should be in the 9s for performance and execution. He may not win a medal but I'm hoping for a strong performance, recognition by the judges and maybe....a miracle!

 

[silverfoxes]

When Adam was roughly Joshua and Jason's age, he won gold at 4CC. He was a 2-time junior worlds champion...and I don't think his track record as a senior is that bad overall. Depends who you are comparing it to, I guess, but I don't think he is a worse skater in any way than the other overhyped darlings of the last few years. By the time they all get to their mid-20s, I expect the hype to dwindle for just about everyone, unless they are the extremely rare late bloomer like Kostner, or a perpetual winning machine like Plushenko. I don't care about hype or flavors of the month. I like Adam and I just want him to do his best - whatever that might be.

 

[Mrs. P]

FWIW: http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpusa2013/gpusa2013_Men_FS_Scores.pdf

Had Adam not popped that 3A, his TES would have been 87.03

And that was with a layout that had one less jump in the second half.

So Adam can be competitive even with a 4Z< -3 GOE if he hits everything else, like he did at Nationals.

At 4CC, he only had one combo, and he UR two other jumps in addition to the 3Z and missed the combo jump on his repeat 3Z/3A. So he lost a lot of valuable ponits that way.

 

[satine]

Well isn't anything possible? I could marry Prince Harry. It's possible, although very unlikely, much like Rippon finishing top 5.

Bit of a dramatic comparison. Millions of people would be willing to marry Harry, meanwhile there are only a few dozen men competing at Worlds...

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Bit of a dramatic comparison. Millions of people would be willing to marry Harry, meanwhile there are only a few dozen men competing at Worlds...

But maybe Harry would/could marry more ladies then there are skaters that can place top 5 at worlds?

 

[el henry]

I don't care about hype or favors of the month either. Which is why I like Jason. And Adam. Certainly it is not mutually exclusive. I love the Liszt, the choreography, even the music cuts. I saw Adam's skate from Finlandia and waited with bated breath for his GP skates. Oh well.:disapp: I learned why those who have been watching the past five years have been watching with fingers crossed.

I could care less about the quad lutz, it detracts from his program, and I would prefer he wouldn't do it. But he is convinced, it appears, that he needs the drama. I wish him the best, but I am tired of being scared watching him skate.

 

[sc8]

Jackie Wong of the Examiner predicts US men finishing 4, 6, 7. While I really want us to bring back a medal, I would be really pleased if all three ended in the top 7. I don't think this is realistic as I don't see all three of ours beating both Russian men or two of the Japanese men. But, it goes to show that our men really are very close to the best, if not the best, men's worlds team. Here is the prediction link: http://www.examiner.com/article/2015-world-championships-preview-men-predicting-the-top-15

 

[sabinfire]

Jackie Wong of the Examiner predicts US men finishing 4, 6, 7. While I really want us to bring back a medal, I would be really pleased if all three ended in the top 7. I don't think this is realistic as I don't see all three of ours beating both Russian men or two of the Japanese men. But, it goes to show that our men really are very close to the best, if not the best, men's worlds team.

I don't know about that list, and not just the American men portion. Just seems a little odd to me. Oh well, it's just one person's predictions.

 

[KwanIsALegend]

Please. Michelle Kwan was one of the most consistent skaters ever. Adam is one of the most inconsistent.

I don't mean jumps, I mean his musicality, his presence and his artistry. He, like Michelle, has the ability to reach everyone in the audience.
It is very hard to find a skater who does all that and is super consistent with their jumps, that is why Michelle was such a rarity, such a special skater that so many skaters aspire to.
At the end of Adams LP at nationals, Terry Gannon said "That is the complete package", because that night Adam did it all.

ETA: I wouldn't go so far as to say that Adam is one of the most inconsistent, he has certainly has his struggles but he's not that bad, if he were we wouldn't even be hearing his name, he would be lost in the 15th - 20th range.

 

[karne]

Jackie Wong of the Examiner predicts US men finishing 4, 6, 7. While I really want us to bring back a medal, I would be really pleased if all three ended in the top 7. I don't think this is realistic as I don't see all three of ours beating both Russian men or two of the Japanese men. But, it goes to show that our men really are very close to the best, if not the best, men's worlds team. Here is the prediction link: http://www.examiner.com/article/2015-world-championships-preview-men-predicting-the-top-15

Jackie is not always very accurate, though his logic is usually fairly sound. He predicted Joshua to finish 12th at Nationals, for example.

 

[sabinfire]

At the end of Adams LP at nationals, Terry Gannon said "That is the complete package", because that night Adam did it all.

It was the moment of 2015 U.S. Nationals for me, for sure. I have this nagging feeling that for many years to come, people will still be thinking of 'that night' at U.S. Nationals, whenever Adam's name is brought up. I'd feel a bit better about that if it were more than a domestic event that he didn't even 'win'. For all the American men at Worlds, I'm lighting a candle for Adam.

...Though still cheering on Farris...

Jackie is not always very accurate, though his logic is usually fairly sound. He predicted Joshua to finish 12th at Nationals, for example.

Well, that just says it all, doesn't it? Watching public reaction to Josh this season has been very entertaining. First, he's almost a nobody... then he's the next American super-star, and now he seems to be back down to somewhere in the middle.

 

[karne]

Well, that just says it all, doesn't it? Watching public reaction to Josh this season has been very entertaining. First, he's almost a nobody... then he's the next American super-star, and now he seems to be back down to somewhere in the middle.

I can't fault Jackie's logic. The last time anyone had seen Josh compete before Nationals was NHK. As to the invisibility thing, well...he's been invisible for years. So few people remember that this year was Josh's third time on the Senior Nationals podium, not his first.

 

[sabinfire]

I can't fault Jackie's logic.

There's the problem right there -- trying to apply logic to figure skating predictions.

The last time anyone had seen Josh compete before Nationals was NHK.

It was his only GP appearance this season, and yes, it was a jumping disaster... but I still had him on my world team, even pre-Nationals. I have been wrong about plenty of other things...

 

[Watermelondrea]

Top 5 will be: hanyu, fernandez, ten, kovtun and mura... Call in it right here

 

[Interspectator]

Top 5 will be: hanyu, fernandez, ten, kovtun and mura... Call in it right here

Mura is the weak link in your list. He jumps his quads fine...but then loses concentration and messes up his easier jumps. It is frustrating.

 

[andromache]

IMO, Adam is a great, overall well-rounded skater who struggles with the mindset that it takes to win competitions. I'd love to see him do well here--granted, I tend to root for most skaters to do well, and I find the US men to be especially endearing. I think two great zero-quad skates wouldn't be enough to make the judges pay attention to his other very good qualities because he lacks the consistency to build up those PCS marks over time (unlike Jason), but a clean quad lutz could force the judges to pay attention to him, and that's why he's going for it. I hope only the best for him.

It's clear that fans are counting on Jason and Josh to be the three-spots-keepers for the US team due to Adam's inconsistency and that's not unreasonable, but I hope all three do well at Worlds. At this point I'm most afraid for Josh because he's going into Worlds with so many expectations and those expectations may be difficult to live up to (my own hopes for him included in that.)

 

[LRK]

Different skaters need different things in different parts of their lives/skating careers.

There is no one-size fits all formula/strategy.

Adam has done plenty "zero quad" and "playing it safe" programs in his life - he is 25, not 20 any longer. He may not feel that he can afford it now.

To (some fellow) Jason fans:

Do you honestly think Jason won't be doing any quads in five years' time?

 

[Mrs. P]

Mura is the weak link in your list. He jumps his quads fine...but then loses concentration and messes up his easier jumps. It is frustrating.

Yep.

And FWIW, Maxim Kovtun and Jason Brown is basically tied on the SB list, so Kovtun is hardly a sure thing either.

Different skaters need different things in different parts of their lives/skating careers.

There is no one-size fits all formula/strategy.

Adam has done plenty "zero quad" and "playing it safe" programs in his life - he is 25, not 20 any longer. He may not feel that he can afford it now.

To (some fellow) Jason fans:

Do you honestly think Jason won't be doing any quads in five years' time?

I think he will get it. That 4T wasn't good at all in 4CC, but it wasn't a complete disaster either. I think it will click with him sometime next season.