Rippon says top five finish at Worlds is possible

[Skater Boy]

Rippon can have moments of brilliance, though. It COULD happen.

I hope both Rippon and Farris can outrun their history of bad luck.

Both are quality skaters.

Right now, it doesn't look like any US man will be in the top 5 unless there are meltdowns.

well I do think we are pushing the odds if you expect all three us men to be in the top 5 but with three shots and all possibly could medal though I admit it would take some faltering and I do think some generous scoring for Brown without a quad. When it comes to full potential in a way maybe Rippon is the best hope with his skating skills, artistry and technical prowess if he put it together he would arguably be stronger than a quadless Brown. Still all three are very capable of also being out of the top ten wheras you can't say that about Fernandez, Dten, Hanyu

 

[Skater Boy]

But maybe Harry would/could marry more ladies then there are skaters that can place top 5 at worlds?

Oh my for a while there I thought a guy was trying to marry Harry. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it is so confusing some time the stuff said on this board.

 

[sabinfire]

When it comes to full potential in a way maybe Rippon is the best hope with his skating skills, artistry and technical prowess if he put it together he would arguably be stronger than a quadless Brown.

I don't know about Rippon being the best hope for Team USA, but I doubt it'd be an argument that Rippon would be stronger than a quadless Brown if he 'put it together' (which I assume means -- skates a clean program and doesn't receive any downgrades/UR/edge calls, and lands a quad lutz with maybe +GoE?)...

Still all three are very capable of also being out of the top ten wheras you can't say that about Fernandez, Dten, Hanyu

This is true. All three of those guys have had terrible skates this year but their scores still held up fairly well, even won them medals. Would not happen with Adam.

 

[Skater Boy]

Oops I meant Rippon is the best hope for a gold for the US. If he is on he has it all. I don't know where to put a clean quadless Brown. Is he more like an Evan L which many find reallywasn't that wonderful or a Jeffrey Buttle who has amazing feet and pcs like a Lambiel or Chan - extraordinary. I dont think we can say evan is a Buttle - though he may be more of a Witt. The best competitors and thus they win.

 

[Sandpiper]

While on a personal level I think it's fine if he wants to go for that strategy, what annoys me a little (and that isn't Adams fault) is how people are fine with that, but Jason gets the "he has to skate well enough to keep the 3 spots" treatment. Without the 4Lz but 2 strong skates Adam might actually help keep those 3 spots. Right now I'm not sure he'll get that 4Lz around and under this system, underrotations are among the worst you can do. So I'm not that optimistic about his chances, as I don't think a 4Lz< will impress the judges (even if it's still a monster of a jump).

And his GOE and PCS are lower than f.e. Jasons for a reason, IMO. It's not as if he had no chance about that, they're all just getting points for what they actually do.

The difference between Adam and Jason is this: Jason is known for his relative consistency. Without a quad, he can probably lay down two near-clean performances. Maybe a UR or two, but nothing drastic. Adam, on the other hand... He's done plenty of quadless skates that (still) didn't work out for him. His problems don't stem from the 4Lz taking too much energy/messing with his head; it's just a general inconsistency. So, if you're a total wildcard anyway... might as well as be the wildcard with a jump that gets the judges' attention.

Jason has a lot more to lose, because he actually has decent scoring potential even without the quad. Adam, not so much. Plus, another strain of thought goes (not that I necessarily think this, but it's one way to look at it): Jason's young and still has chances. Adam, on the other hand, might not get another chance. Might as well as go for the maximum and hope for the miracle, rather than battling for 11th place with Nam Nguyen.

I don't think Adam's PCS and GOE should be weak when he skates like Nationals. His triple axel is actually looks decent when it hits, and he has a killer 3-3. He does have level issues on his spins, but the spins themselves aren't bad (and the layback is excellent). YMMV, of course.

 

[anyanka]

If he can skate lights-out like his magnificent US nationals FS, then absolutely.

 

[plushyfan]

I hope so, Adam!!!!! GO!

 

[Li'Kitsu]

The difference between Adam and Jason is this: Jason is known for his relative consistency. Without a quad, he can probably lay down two near-clean performances. Maybe a UR or two, but nothing drastic. Adam, on the other hand... He's done plenty of quadless skates that (still) didn't work out for him. His problems don't stem from the 4Lz taking too much energy/messing with his head; it's just a general inconsistency. So, if you're a total wildcard anyway... might as well as be the wildcard with a jump that gets the judges' attention.

Jason has a lot more to lose, because he actually has decent scoring potential even without the quad. Adam, not so much. Plus, another strain of thought goes (not that I necessarily think this, but it's one way to look at it): Jason's young and still has chances. Adam, on the other hand, might not get another chance. Might as well as go for the maximum and hope for the miracle, rather than battling for 11th place with Nam Nguyen.

I don't think Adam's PCS and GOE should be weak when he skates like Nationals. His triple axel is actually looks decent when it hits, and he has a killer 3-3. He does have level issues on his spins, but the spins themselves aren't bad (and the layback is excellent). YMMV, of course.

I get all of that, but what I meant is I don't like the way quite a few people (like TSL) are pretty forgiving and supportive of Adam in their "just skate for yourself" attitude, while Jason gets all of the expectations and less support. It's the usual fate of the gold medalists, but it's even more annoying to me in this case following the huge outcry Adam should allegedly have won nationals.

About his international scores: why do so many people think the judges wouldn't reward him? Adam actually has the 3rd highest average in spin GOE of the guys going into worlds - tied with Yuzuru Hanyu, who happens to be a very good spinner too and actually has a lot of reputation. Adam gets the marks when he gets his stuff done, it's not the judges fault if he doesn't give them many chances to reward him. His jumps IMO are good, but definitely not +3 territory - and I'm pretty sure he's actually getting +1 und +2's on them.

 

[Mathman]

I get all of that, but what I meant is I don't like the way quite a few people (like TSL) are pretty forgiving and supportive of Adam in their "just skate for yourself" attitude, while Jason gets all of the expectations and less support. It's the usual fate of the gold medalists, but it's even more annoying to me in this case following the huge outcry Adam should allegedly have won nationals.

I think the outcry was from the audience in the arena and people watching on TV who got swept up in Adam's glorious performance. Then when the slow motion replays and the protocols came out, well, yeah, those deductions and dropped points were correct, even though he electrified the crowd.

 

[OS]

Definitely possible. His performance at Nationals was one of the great highlight this year. Hanyu has it in the bag though as long as he stays on his feet.

My fav performances this year are from Denis Ten at 4CCs, Josh and Adam at US nationals. Hanyu and Han Yan complete my top 5 for the guys. Maxim skating for Kazakhstan wouldn't even be in the top 8 and I'd easily rank Voronov above him.

I must admit, I missed Patrick's skating skill like hell, find it therapeutic and meditative as long as we skip the buttfalls.

 

[dorispulaski]

I think the outcry was from the audience in the arena and people watching on TV who got swept up in Adam's glorious performance. Then when the slow motion replays and the protocols came out, well, yeah, those deductions and dropped points were correct, even though he electrified the crowd.

Response in the arena varied by where you were sitting. All 3 guys gave very good performances.
I was sitting behind the judges and preferred Jason to the others, as did the rest.of the folks sitting near me. About half way down the rink on my side, a large section seemed to prefer Josh. The booth that Johnny and Tara were in was at the far end of the rink. From their commentary, they liked Josh and Adam. However, the mistakes, including under rotated quads, and other missteps by Josh and Adam were clearly visible from where I was sitting. I am sure the judges saw them as well.

As a whole, you can check arena response by percent of audience standing, volume and length of the cheering, and amount of toys on the ice after the skate.

Adam skated first.Check 5:10 and following
http://m.youtube.com/index?&desktop_uri=/#/watch?v=cBcusUyB8zE

Jason skated later than Adam. Check 5:17 and following:
http://m.youtube.com/index?&desktop_uri=/#/watch?v=d3-6VQPIr74

Jason has lots more toys on the ice and somewhat more people standing.

There are also a lot of people who thought Josh should have won the FS. Josh skated last. Check 5:15 and following. Josh has more people not standing and less toys than either Jason or Adam.
http://m.youtube.com/index?&desktop_uri=/#/watch?v=ypr3CLV5GcI

 

[Warwick360]

Possible? Yes. Do I see him doing it? No.

Although regardless of the placing I do hope he lands at least one quad lutz.

 

[KwanIsALegend]

I get all of that, but what I meant is I don't like the way quite a few people (like TSL) are pretty forgiving and supportive of Adam in their "just skate for yourself" attitude, while Jason gets all of the expectations and less support.

I think Jason gets plenty of support, he is very well liked, has a huge fan base and gets a lot of encouragement as he builds his senior career. He is the golden boy of the USFSA right now. The Skating Lesson are just two people with an internet show, they are not commentators, they offer their opinions, rather strongly and without holding back. But I don't think I would take anything they say to heart or as if they are speaking for the entire skating community.
Also, Jason is relatively new to the senior circuit, Adam has been around for awhile, so yes, there are expectations put on Jason that are not put on Adam. I think it boils down to the fact that people have lost faith in Adam due to his inconsistency over the years. I don't think TSL telling Adam to 'just skate for yourself' speaks well of their expectations of him.

 

[Alchamei]

Please. Michelle Kwan was one of the most consistent skaters ever. Adam is one of the most inconsistent.

Who said that when someone reminds you of someone else he/she must be consistent in the same way. What about his style of skating? His artistry?

 

[Sandpiper]

I get all of that, but what I meant is I don't like the way quite a few people (like TSL) are pretty forgiving and supportive of Adam in their "just skate for yourself" attitude, while Jason gets all of the expectations and less support. It's the usual fate of the gold medalists, but it's even more annoying to me in this case following the huge outcry Adam should allegedly have won nationals.

About his international scores: why do so many people think the judges wouldn't reward him? Adam actually has the 3rd highest average in spin GOE of the guys going into worlds - tied with Yuzuru Hanyu, who happens to be a very good spinner too and actually has a lot of reputation. Adam gets the marks when he gets his stuff done, it's not the judges fault if he doesn't give them many chances to reward him. His jumps IMO are good, but definitely not +3 territory - and I'm pretty sure he's actually getting +1 und +2's on them.

Jason is National champion and the most reliable men's skater in the US. Josh is the 4CC silver medallist, the one with the best realistic scoring potential, and one of the breakouts of the year. Adam is, er... the odd man? Or, for people who are less kind, the perpetual underachiever/disappointment? People aren't being forgiving to Adam; they just don't trust him no matter what his layout is. So he might as well as do what he wants.

Well, I'm not as versed in stats as you are, so perhaps you're right, the judges would reward him if he skates well. I seem to get the impression that his years of inconsistency have allowed him to build no momentum, and if he does a clean all-triple program, he's likely to wind up as the third American man anyway (and no higher than 10th place). And no, his jumps aren't worth +3s. But neither are Jason's or Josh's (Josh's 3A aside). Anyway, let's see what happens at Worlds. Hopefully Adam skates well enough that we can even have this conversation.

 

[ice coverage]

... As a whole, you can check arena response by percent of audience standing, volume and length of the cheering, and amount of toys on the ice after the skate.

Adam skated first.Check 5:10 and following
http://m.youtube.com/index?&desktop_uri=/#/watch?v=cBcusUyB8zE

Jason skated later than Adam. Check 5:17 and following:
http://m.youtube.com/index?&desktop_uri=/#/watch?v=d3-6VQPIr74

Jason has lots more toys on the ice and somewhat more people standing.

There are also a lot of people who thought Josh should have won the FS. Josh skated last. Check 5:15 and following. Josh has more people not standing and less toys than either Jason or Adam.
http://m.youtube.com/index?&desktop_uri=/#/watch?v=ypr3CLV5GcI

My two cents re toys being not so meaningful:

Doesn't seem fair to compare Jason's toy count to those of others -- b/c of his very laudable project of collecting donations for Ronald McDonald House, which he had publicized in advance. Jason's toys reflect support not only for him, but also for a worthy cause.

And another reason that the toys (other than freebie Smucker berries) IMO do not seem like a reliable barometer of crowd response to the live programs:
I would have assumed that many toy-throwers would have planned ahead of time that they would throw their toys (other than the Smucker berries) after a specific skater's program -- as a general show of support for him or her. Not as an indicator of how s/he performed on the day compared to other skaters.
In other words, if it were me, I would take my seat for the Men's FS knowing that I would wait until Skater C's program to throw my toy -- even if Skater A or B knocked my socks off before C's turn. And no matter how great or less than great C performed on that day, I would go ahead and throw my toy for C -- even though one or more skaters scheduled to skate later perhaps would end up exciting me more than C did.

So ... if I had been in Greensboro, perhaps I would have sat down with a toy intended for Jason. Maybe I absolutely loved Adam's FS, but chose to hold onto my toy for Jason b/c I love Jason in general and also want to support RMHC. So I would have happily thrown for Jason ... only to then see Josh's skate and feel that he was beyond incredible. Throwing my toy for Jason would not have necessarily meant that I thought he was superior to Adam or Josh on that day.

(Sorry, haven't looked at your videos, Doris. The mobile links don't work on my PC, and I haven't bothered to look for the equivalent ones.)

 

[Flaya]

From American skaters, I expect Joshua Farris to be the strongest. In fact, I predicted he would place 4th or 5th in our prediction thread.

As far as Rippon goes. I simply do not see him that high at all. I am not sure of a top 10 finish, in fact I'd say 13th if I had to place bets and even Brown is likely going to place higher than him.

 

[karne]

I think the outcry was from the audience in the arena and people watching on TV who got swept up in Adam's glorious performance. Then when the slow motion replays and the protocols came out, well, yeah, those deductions and dropped points were correct, even though he electrified the crowd.

And there are plenty of people who still complain that he should have won. Usually, in the same breath, they then continue whinging about how Jason doesn't try the quad, but Adam is amazing because he goes for 4Lz<< and that is why he should have won.

Last year, by the time Nationals came around, I was really hoping for Rippon/Aaron Olympic team, because Adam had had such a great GP season. Adam did it all himself; but when Jason moved ahead of Max, Max applauded him, in spite of the massive disappointment.

This year, when Jason moved ahead of Adam, Adam merely gave the camera a snooty "no he shouldn't look at poor little underscored me" face. Yeah, to say I wasn't impressed by that or his behaviour in the press conference was an understatement.

 

[andromache]

This year, when Jason moved ahead of Adam, Adam merely gave the camera a snooty "no he shouldn't look at poor little underscored me" face. Yeah, to say I wasn't impressed by that or his behaviour in the press conference was an understatement.

I don't know anything about about Adam's snooty face, but what was wrong with Adam's behavior in the press conference?

 

[karne]

I don't know anything about about Adam's snooty face, but what was wrong with Adam's behavior in the press conference?

As Josh was talking, Adam came piling in over the top and interrupted with his own "blah blah I feel so old" stuff and completely cut him off.