So Who's an Underdog and Who's a Favorite at Nationals?

[ladybug]

Too much math... Too much counting.... make it stop... yup, I hate CoP...

Having said that ~ based on my skating experience, its always the most hyped that fades away the fastest... two years ago we were talking about Miki, Caro & Joanne. The year before that Ann Patrice & Jenny. Now its Mao. I don't care if you can throw a perfect quint axel, quad lutz ~ its impossible to rate how a skater will perform at the senior level until they've actually been at the senior level a season or two... the only exception to that rule is Tara Lipinski,imo.

The only thing I'm looking forward to next season is who amongst the newbies will show that special "it" or spark to mark them as the next big thing ~ and its never jumps that defines that ~ it is overall skating & ability to jump off the ice and demand one's attention. (And by jump, I don't mean that literally) If skating becomes a sheer jumping contest, then the coolest part about skating is lost... which is sad, at least to this rabid fan...

I agree with you Kwanford Wife, but I think Mao will continue to be the favorite until she proves otherwise. I doubt she will be the favorite in 2010 but she could prove all of us wrong.

Waiting for that special skater who will show that special "it" quality may take a long time because skaters are more interested in racking up points since it is points that win the competitions.

I think the coolest part about skating is lost which I agree is very sad.

Ladybug

 

[Lanie]

Joe - Sasha taking up the sport because her mom told her to? I'm confused since I've always heard from Sasha and others she took up skating after some friend of hers had a birthday party or something on the ice (something about a friend skating) and she dropped gymnastics to persue skating. I think she doesn't like to compete. She likes to win and it hampers her, that and hearing how she constantly will fall or whatever. She does say she watches her performances and I bet the stuff Dick and Peggy and et al say about her crashing and burning has got to get to her. She wants to prove them wrong so badly, too badly. But I agree re: Olys FS... she let it go, skated her heart out. I wish she could do that and just trust herself, let it go, but I think she's TOO focused to do that.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Joe - Sasha taking up the sport because her mom told her to? I'm confused since I've always heard from Sasha and others she took up skating after some friend of hers had a birthday party or something on the ice (something about a friend skating) and she dropped gymnastics to persue skating. I think she doesn't like to compete. She likes to win and it hampers her, that and hearing how she constantly will fall or whatever. She does say she watches her performances and I bet the stuff Dick and Peggy and et al say about her crashing and burning has got to get to her. She wants to prove them wrong so badly, too badly. But I agree re: Olys FS... she let it go, skated her heart out. I wish she could do that and just trust herself, let it go, but I think she's TOO focused to do that.

Lanie - That story you heard could be true. It's just that I read that her mother didn't like her doing gymnastics because she thought it too dangerous and brought her to skating. This is why I thought it would be one of the reasons that she doesn't skate her best each time.

I think she loves the glamour life and that is where she'll be headed eventually, if she finds the public to love her. Hope so.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Joe, I used the Federations because they seem to make the decision on who is the favorite and who is the underdog through the voices of Peggy and Dick.
Ladybug

OK ladybug, if you think the Federations are going to come out say 'so and so' is the best skater going into this competition or if they show it by putting faces on a poster. It would seem that any special improvements in the skater or his/her movements up the ranks does not affect the decision and fans have nothing to say about who will be the favorite going into the Nats. It is soley the Federations.

We are not saying who will win the competition. We are just saying who among the contestants seem to be the one skater who will win, and that most fans would agree. I'm not sure you understand the difference.

Joe

 

[antmanb]

Well, most fans think the new scoring system is superior to the old. In which case, she has stayed on the podium for good reason.

I guess you know the judges personally. You got me there!

The same way that you know the majority of skating fans?!

I don't get the impression that at the majority of fans prefer the new judging system - most of the internet places i read about figure skating the fans are against the new judging system...but since i don't know what kind of cross section of figure skating fans that is (or if its a bunch of ten people all postingunder different names) i wouldn't presume!

Ant

 

[antmanb]

I'm not trying to infringe fan free speech but I am questioning the passion against Sasha. There is some special figure-skating-fan thing with her that I just don't get.

I think with Sasha, its her personality, or the impression she gives of her personality. My sister who maybe once every 12 years watched the figure skating at the Olympics made some pretty nasty comments about Sasha purely on the way she looked before and while she was taking the ice to perform and then afterwards...they're the kind of harsh personlity criticisms people made when she was making some media gaffs and cases of foot in mouth.

Ant

 

[Jaana]

IUS Men

I think there are two favorites: Lysacek and Weir. Underdogs will be fighting for 3rd place. Maybe Tommy Steenberg.

Japanese Men

Like the Americans, the Japanese boys: Takehashi and Oda will be battling it out for the win. No real favorite between them. Is there a third coming up?
Joe

I think that although Nationals in different countries matter a lot, it still is unimportant in most cases, who wins and who will be second. It is the placements in international competitions that really matter. It is really unfortunate if a skater does the best performance of the season at Nationals.

While speaking of underdogs in US Nationals, it is difficult to decide between Lysacek and Weir. Weir is the current US champion, but Lysacek is the current World bronze medalist. Anyway, I love the skating of these both skaters equally, and hope that also Weir would have success at Worlds in coming season.

Fortunately in Japanese Nationals it does not matter whether Oda or Takahashi wins. There is more than one slot for 2007 Worlds.

 

[JonnyCoop]

I think with Sasha, its her personality, or the impression she gives of her personality. My sister who maybe once every 12 years watched the figure skating at the Olympics made some pretty nasty comments about Sasha purely on the way she looked before and while she was taking the ice to perform and then afterwards...they're the kind of harsh personlity criticisms people made when she was making some madie gaffs and cases of foot in mouth.

Ant

She does kind of radiate -- SOMETHING -- to some people. I used to be one of them, actually. While I have always liked her skating, there was just something about her that said to me "Spoiled Rich Stuck-Up Little Princess" that made it difficult for me to actually root for her all that much. And being from Laguna Niguel, which is not exactly a skid row, rather added to the perception. Plus her Visa card behavior at 02 Nats warmup session, as well as at others ("Sasha. She's everywhere you want to be.") However, over the last 4 years, my animosity, for lack of better term at the moment, has dissipated towards her and actually disappeared after reading the article on her in the SI Olympic Preview issue.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

She does have that 'Princess' aura about her, and for many, it is a turn off.

However, she does have many pluses in her skating abilities, and I continue to like watching her skate.

Joe

 

[MKFSfan]

something about her that said to me "Spoiled Rich Stuck-Up Little Princess" that made it difficult for me to actually root for her all that much. And being from Laguna Niguel, which is not exactly a skid row, rather added to the perception. Plus her Visa card behavior at 02 Nats warmup session, as well as at others ("Sasha. She's everywhere you want to be.")

She does have that 'Princess' aura about her, and for many, it is a turn off.
However, she does have many pluses in her skating abilities, and I continue to like watching her skate.

That's my take, too. I think as Sasha's grown up, she's become more aware of how her actions and words may harm her image and she's straightened up a bit. I don't care if she's thinking,"That darn Shiz/Kimmie! HOW in the world did she EVER beat me?!", I just don't want to hear it. Let her skating speak for her, and I can enjoy her around longer.

I think all elite athletes have an "aura" about them, lots of confidence and belief in their abilities-the "I"m the Best" attitudes are practically required to succeed at top levels, but IMO, it's how you present yourself to the public that attracts your fans. Some will love that diva attitude. Some will hate it. I love her skating, but not as much her personality, so I'm kinda a figure skating fan, rooting for our US skaters, more so than a Sasha Cohen fan, if that makes sense!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think all elite athletes have an "aura" about them, lots of confidence and belief in their abilities-the "I"m the Best" attitudes are practically required to succeed at top levels, but IMO, it's how you present yourself to the public that attracts your fans. Some will love that diva attitude. Some will hate it. I love her skating, but not as much her personality, so I'm kinda a figure skating fan, rooting for our US skaters, more so than a Sasha Cohen fan, if that makes sense!

That's not what I meant by the "Princess" aura. Nothing to do with skating. It has to do with her personality in life, and it seems you agree to that.

Joe

 

[MKFSfan]

That's not what I meant by the "Princess" aura. Nothing to do with skating. It has to do with her personality in life, and it seems you agree to that.

Joe

No, I do agree! And I understand, the Princess aura is more about being a spoiled brat that gets her way all the time, then exuding confidence in whatever they do. Michelle exudes a certain aura on the ice that many top skaters do, but she comes off very down to earth and humble off the ice. That's what I meant by either their off-ice personality will be liked or hated, while they probably are all cut-throat divas on the ice.

 

[Mathman]

I think that although Nationals in different countries matter a lot, it still is unimportant in most cases, who wins and who will be second. It is the placements in international competitions that really matter...

I think it depends on what country you are from. I bet it would mean more to Nobunari Oda, for instance, to win Japanese Nationals than to win the Eric Bompard Trophee or the Golden Spin of Zagreb or Four Continents.

About placement at Worlds, again, I bet he would be prouder to be Japanese champion than to place 5th rather than 8th at Worlds.

 

[Spun Silver]

The same way that you know the majority of skating fans?!

I don't get the impression that at the majority of fans prefer the new judging system - most of the internet places i read about figure skating the fans are against the new judging system...but since i don't know what kind of cross section of figure skating fans that is (or if its a bunch of ten people all postingunder different names) i wouldn't presume!

Ant

Well, earlier this year there were a number of threads on COP v. 6.0 on the boards I read - don't have the time to dig them up - and the posts were overwhelmingly in favor of COP. I know there is criticism of COP but from what I have seen most think the errors are fixable at least in principle.

Maybe there is a whole different sense on Kwan boards since she thrived under 6.0, not COP. Or maybe the COP-positivity is a recent development.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Well, earlier this year there were a number of threads on COP v. 6.0 on the boards I read - don't have the time to dig them up - and the posts were overwhelmingly in favor of COP. I know there is criticism of COP but from what I have seen most think the errors are fixable at least in principle.

Maybe there is a whole different sense on Kwan boards since she thrived under 6.0, not COP. Or maybe the COP-positivity is a recent development.

I don't agree with this statement. Sasha's issues pre-date CoP and she hasn't been able to deliver under either system. Kwan hasn't thrived because she's been injured, so we don't really know how she'd rank under the CoP.

I have been very vocal about CoP since the begining but not because of Kwan but because it just doesn't seem "natural" within the histroical context of skating ~ meaning she who performs best is generally rewarded. CoP has a way of focusing on elements vs. the whole which causes programs to look sloppy and not well-thoughout. (I won't even get into the whole Quad Buttle which just pisses me off...) Maybe this is an issue that will work itself out over time. Maybe not.

However, I still don't see how the judging system affects a skater's ability to perform. Most skaters fall at one point, that's just the nature of the beast. Even the Divas. But with Sasha, its different. She's been splating since her senior debut. I think its only fair for skating fans, the media, coaches, etc. to wonder why this little ball of energy and natural talent cannot put down two clean programs in one competition. She has gotten better over the years in terms of edge quality and musicality. We've seen her jump. The only thing that hasn't gotten better are the costumes & musical selections. She has all the tools to be great and yet, she isn't... How is it bashing to point out it's probably a mental thing? I think Michelle & Irina's inability to win an OGM is a mental thing ~ is that bashing or an observation?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

No, I do agree! And I understand, the Princess aura is more about being a spoiled brat that gets her way all the time, then exuding confidence in whatever they do. Michelle exudes a certain aura on the ice that many top skaters do, but she comes off very down to earth and humble off the ice. That's what I meant by either their off-ice personality will be liked or hated, while they probably are all cut-throat divas on the ice.

For me I do not understand what you are doing to a colloquial term of Princess and a real term of aura. think we better agree to disagree.

Joe

 

[R.D.]

Most skaters fall at one point, that's just the nature of the beast. Even the Divas. But with Sasha, its different. She's been splating since her senior debut. I think its only fair for skating fans, the media, coaches, etc. to wonder why this little ball of energy and natural talent cannot put down two clean programs in one competition. She has gotten better over the years in terms of edge quality and musicality. We've seen her jump. The only thing that hasn't gotten better are the costumes & musical selections. She has all the tools to be great and yet, she isn't...

I would change "most" to "all". Has a skater ever NOT fallen in their career...EVER? Highly unlikely.

I keep saying that it doesn't matter how much so-called "potential" one has. You just have to bring it when it counts and if you don't, you're not "great". I don't care what you can do; you just don't cut it. That's my view.

 

[Spun Silver]

I don't agree with this statement. Sasha's issues pre-date CoP and she hasn't been able to deliver under either system. Kwan hasn't thrived because she's been injured, so we don't really know how she'd rank under the CoP.

I have been very vocal about CoP since the begining but not because of Kwan but because it just doesn't seem "natural" within the histroical context of skating ~ meaning she who performs best is generally rewarded. CoP has a way of focusing on elements vs. the whole which causes programs to look sloppy and not well-thoughout. (I won't even get into the whole Quad Buttle which just pisses me off...) Maybe this is an issue that will work itself out over time. Maybe not.

However, I still don't see how the judging system affects a skater's ability to perform. Most skaters fall at one point, that's just the nature of the beast. Even the Divas. But with Sasha, its different. She's been splating since her senior debut. I think its only fair for skating fans, the media, coaches, etc. to wonder why this little ball of energy and natural talent cannot put down two clean programs in one competition. She has gotten better over the years in terms of edge quality and musicality. We've seen her jump. The only thing that hasn't gotten better are the costumes & musical selections. She has all the tools to be great and yet, she isn't... How is it bashing to point out it's probably a mental thing? I think Michelle & Irina's inability to win an OGM is a mental thing ~ is that bashing or an observation?

If you are objecting to something I said, I don't understand.
- Red Dog seemed to say that SC only got on the podium because of COP.
- I answered that most fans seem to think COP is better than 6.0 so SC being on the podium must actually mean she's performed better.
- Antman disputed my statement about "most" fans' preference for COP.
- I acknowledged that I had not included either MK fans or discussions of COP/6.0 prior to this year in my generalization.

If I understand you, you are not disputing my main point re Sasha earning her podium placements under COP (?) but the side point that MK hasn't thrived under COP. Isn't that just a historical fact - that her triumphs came under 6.0 and at best we have little evidence on her performance under COP?

I do hear you about not liking COP but do you think most fans would agree with you or not? I'm really curious since, like I said, the threads I've read have been very strongly pro-COP (of course with many dissenting voices - it's not the USSR).

 

[R.D.]

MK had most (if not all) of her success under the 6.0 system. As soon as Cop came along, she got herself injured (could that be attributed partly to the scoring system as well?). So there's no knowing for sure how she'd really do under this new system because the only comp. she's entered IIRC that used it was 05 Worlds.

I think with some tweaking this new scoring system will move skating in the right direction.

 

[Tonichelle]

As soon as Cop came along, she got herself injured (could that be attributed partly to the scoring system as well?).

You make it sound like the woman went out of her way to injure herself!!! Which I don't think is the case with Michelle...

I do think that she did get a bit nervous with the CoP reigning supreme over 6.0 and began focusing more on the technical aspect of the sport... a lot like Johnny she worried so much about it that she let it get in the way of her skating, which - as long as she kept up with the jumps and sped up her spins - really wouldn't have been scored lower IMHO in the new system...

I think some of the veteran/old skool type skaters got lost in how to navigate the new system... some like Evan, Sasha, etc embraced it and made it work and didn't let it phase them... whereas others like Michelle, Johnny, etc... didn't think they'd get the same results if they didn't start working the math in their head

if that makes sense?

Granted I don't know these skaters personally... but I'm going by what was said in certain interviews... Sasha made it clear that she was confident that her "team" worked out the system to use it the best while still giving her a decent program... Evan's got this laidback style that he basically just shoves all of his skating in your face and lets the chips fall where they may...

Johnny made comments early on that he didn't like the system because he worried if he had spun enough rotations in that spin, what were the judges scoring his footwork as... he was thinking numbers in his head, and his skating has shown it in the worst possible ways!

Michelle also focussed on the points saying she was working very hard to get her jumps higher/bigger/more powerful (see I do pay attention to what she has to say) and I think she focussed a bit too much too fast... just a thought...


I must be in a rambling mood today... all my replies are LONG... lol