Sun Valley / Sasha Article

[Mathman]

Hi, Tarotx. Thanks for joining us.

Even if Michelle doesn't win Nationals (but I think she will :agree: ), Michelle will be the big story in the U.S. media.

What's cool about this Olympics, IMHO, is that this is the first time I can remember where there are half a dozen ladies with a legitimate chance to win the gold medal.

Mathman

 

[R.D.]

No matter what Michelle will be a favorite-especially if she wins US nationals. Which is likely.

And you know what? I've been making this very point myself, and ITA with you.

ETA: MM- there's absolutely NO way MK isn't winning nationals, and that's all I'll say on the matter.

 

[Mathman]

Have you forgotten Kimmie?

 

[millie]

Nobody is a shoo-in at Nationals! We haven't seen anybody skate yet this season, only rumors of what they are doing. How can anybody say that so and so is going to win!

 

[R.D.]

Have you forgotten Kimmie?

Yes I have, because personally I don't think she stands much of a chance against kwan. POSSIBLY Cohen if she has an off-night (I mean an off-night by her standards), but not Kwan. JMO.

 

[Doggygirl]

No matter what Michelle will be a favorite-especially if she wins US nationals. Which is likely.

Hmmm. MK will absolutely be a favorite, and have certain advantages at Nationals. I'm assuming that comp will feature an all US judging panel, and she will have the "majority vote" of the audience - she always does on home soil. A record setting 10th National title will also be on the line which I think could work in MK's favor sentimentally.

On the flip side, Sasha has fared better than MK under NJS. Sasha has also fared better than MK at World's the last two seasons under international judging panels, both 6.0 and NJS.

IMO? It will be an exciting season to watch!!! I can't think of a single prediction I'd be willing to make at this stage outside of the Dance category. (sorry Dance fans!)

I think the more interesting watch at Nationals will be "who gets the #3 spot in ladies?" And with such a deep international field, I really think anything can happen at the Oly's. As many have said, may the best lady win on that night in Torino!!

I personally think the Men's field is mighty interesting as well. But I will restrain myself from going there on a Sasha thread!!

DG

 

[R.D.]

Nobody is a shoo-in at Nationals! We haven't seen anybody skate yet this season, only rumors of what they are doing. How can anybody say that so and so is going to win!

People were telling me last year left and right that I was underestimating Cohen when I basically guaranteed that Kwan would win in 2005. I knew that the competition wouldn't be up to snuff. Kimmie was just starting out, Cohen was "recovering" from yet another coaching change and a move, so I barely expected anything out of her. I would reply, "Has Cohen EVER risen to the occasion when it counts? How can she go from moving across the country, dealing with a coaching change, etc. without going through some sort of adjustment period?"

We know the end. I said, "Toldya!" to all the doubters as Kwan took home title number nine. And she didn't even need to skate perfectly to win it.

Now, this nationals, I'd be shocked if Kwan doesn't win. Cohen, who is her only real competitior nationally (as of right now) has never been able to rise to the occasion when it counts. And should Cohen do it this year, I'll be the first to tell you that her OGM chances have all but slipped out the window. Why? Because she would already have peaked for that season. Not to mention she'll be the American favorite, and we know the rest.

So, in JMO, Kwan will win in 2006 (Nationals, people, not Olympics), even if she has an off-night. I don't see anyone else being able to match her there. And, if Cohen happens to win one major comp (no matter which one it is) I don't see her winning any more.

 

[R.D.]

A record setting 10th National title will also be on the line which I think could work in MK's favor sentimentally.

ITA here. This is even further proof to me. Even in a close race, I think it's going to kwan. She has a virtual lock on the National title and will continue to until she retires, IMO. I'm not convinced otherwise.

I also agree with the NJS thing, but I see it this way: It may be a new judging system, but it's still U.S. Nationals, it's still the Kwan love fest (JMO, no one can convince me otherwise), and I think if the judges think Kwan deserves it, they'll do everything in their power to give it to her. But only one thing will tell for sure, and that's time. I'm 99% sure that Kwan will win. The other 1% is left to Time.

 

[R.D.]

DG- About that third spot- now THIS is the spot that none of us can predict with any kind of accuracy. We don't know who's going to be slightly better than the other, etc. It could be Kirk, Meissner, even Cohen if she has an off-night (like I said above), etc.

 

[Doggygirl]

ITA here. This is even further proof to me. Even in a close race, I think it's going to kwan. She has a virtual lock on the National title and will continue to until she retires, IMO. I'm not convinced otherwise.

I also agree with the NJS thing, but I see it this way: It may be a new judging system, but it's still U.S. Nationals, it's still the Kwan love fest (JMO, no one can convince me otherwise), and I think if the judges think Kwan deserves it, they'll do everything in their power to give it to her. But only one thing will tell for sure, and that's time. I'm 99% sure that Kwan will win. The other 1% is left to Time.

Nationals is of interest to me because I will actually be GOING TO WATCH IT LIVE!! Not as a predictor (for me anyway) of Oly's. While I'm sure the MK / Sasha thing will be played up big time in the media for Nationals, I don't think that has much direct relevance as a predictor for the top US placement at Oly's (medal or not). So while I agree with you that MK probably has some distinct advantages for Nationals, I don't think those advantages translate directly to Oly (or other international) predictions for next season, unlike the "old days" where the top US skater (Nationals, politikin', whatever) would translate to the highest US placement on the international scene.

BUT - we'll all have to wait and see, especially since it's 1) first time for Nats under NJS and 2) and Oly year where anything unexpected can happen, and it probably will!!

OK - how many more days until Campbell's?????

DG

 

[Mathman]

OK - how many more days until Campbell's?

38

Campbell's will tell the story. If Michelle does 3Lz-3T-2Lo AND 3S-3Lo I will predict that Michelle will win Nationals.

Unless Sasha does her quad Sal.

Oly prediction: Fumie!

You read it here first, LOL.

MM

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Actually, no, I don't. I am probably the only figure skating fan on the planet who believes that 99% of the time the judges really do try to judge what they see, honestly and to the best of their abilities. I don't think any of these side currents matter much at all. May the best skater win!MM

MM - 99% of the time? How do you account for the many disparate placements in competition? Chuckum's post showed judges extremely far from agreement and not even close. Would you say that some judges' best abilities are cheating or ineptness?

Joe

 

[Mathman]

Joe, I just posted on the "Tarasova choreography" thread about that. In fact, I think that if you look at the actual numbers, you will see remarkable agreement among the judges, even in PCS. Check it out:

http://www.isufs.org/results/wc2005/WC05_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Yup, I just saw your post. Where did Chuckum get her information? BTW, when you were checking those scores, did you notice any judges' names?

Joe

 

[Mathman]

BTW, when you were checking those scores, did you notice any judges' names?

 

[Rgirl]

Actually, no, I don't. I am probably the only figure skating fan on the planet who believes that 99% of the time the judges really do try to judge what they see, honestly and to the best of their abilities. I don't think any of these side currents matter much at all. May the best skater win!

That makes two figure skating fans on the planet given that I agree with you--almost. I would say 80-90% of the judges really do try to judge what they see, honestly and to the best of their abilities, plus accurately try to go by the COP 99% of the time.

But this is also why I agree with you that the random dropping of two judges' scores is stupid. It provides a chance for honest judges to be dropped and for the 10-20% of dishonest judges to have their scores count. Although dropping the high and low scores helps diffuse this.

Of course when it comes to ice dancing, all bets are off!

BTW, I agree Sasha looks great, especially in the strength department, which has been my big beef (ahem!) with her since the '02-03 season. That is, she had looked as if she'd lost strength since '01-02.

Now let's see if she can overcome one of my other big beefs with her: peaking too early in the season.

Ironic, IMO, that now that the 6.0 scoring is over we have about 6 ladies who could take the OGM, lol.

Rgirl

P.S. Gez: My vacation statement was (paraphrase), "I'll be on vacation from GS posting until competition starts, though with occasional lurkings and posts." How could you have missed that one in your file on me? Snap it up, girl! It's the Olympic season. You don't want to be slipping on me now!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

38

Campbell's will tell the story. If Michelle does 3Lz-3T-2Lo AND 3S-3Lo I will predict that Michelle will win Nationals.Unless Sasha does her quad Sal.Oly prediction: Fumie!

You read it here first, LOL.MM

And Kimmie, the teenage wonder comes up with a 3A 4T combo

Joe