The men's podium in Nice

[ImaginaryPogue]

Hanyu has the talent, the drive, and the competitive nerves. He got 4th at the GPF and the only reason he didn't get 3rd (or higher) is because he didn't have the reputation. The judges have seen him more now and, if he skates his SP as he did at Cup of China, he will be in the mix going into the LP and will almost surely do well in that portion of the competition. Being the 3rd Japanese Man is a detriment but I think he is likely to put a SP and LP together with all of the big technical goods, something that most everyone else will struggle with.



Yes he is. Worlds is in France and he is a former World Champion. It all depends on whether or not he can get his act together.

Hanyu just turned 17, it is unfair to compare him with skaters 3years older than him, at this age at least. Who has landed the podium in their teen first years since Yag/Plu/Joub era? I had seen him in juniors worlds 2010 and it was clear he is a prodigy skater. He needs time to mature and will take the fs world by storm!

Chan was 18 when he podiumed in LA
Lysacek was 19 when he podiumed in Moscow (2005)
Gachisnki was 17 when he podiumed in Moscow (2011)

I'm not quite convinced about Hanyu - I suspect that BoP is gazing at him with stars in his eyes, but I'm also nonplussed about his programs this year, so the fault might be mine.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Although you may not be convinced yet, at least consider this - Yuzuru Hanyu has perfectly landed more clean Triple Axels in his 4 competitions this season than ANYONE else has in the same number of competitions (he hasn't missed a single one all season). In terms of total number of combined Quads and Triple Axels across 4 competitions he is also at the very top, tied with Artur Gachinski at 16. That says something.

1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. P'ssssshhhhhhhhhhhhh
4. Brezina (because comedy comes in threes.)

 

[FTnoona]

Let's not jinx Hanyu by hyping him up for a medal
As a fangirl, I would be thrilled if he performed a clean SP and FS and was good enough to make it to the gala performances >.<
I am also really excited to see what will happen to Kozuka. Not making the GPF and not getting a chance to go to 4CC really limited his exposure this season.
1. Chan
2. Kozuka/Takahashi
3. Fernandez

 

[skateluvr]

Hanyu is incredible. I said Ashley would bring it to Nationals, 4CC and was the one to beat. Hanyu is a threat for silver or bronze. More importantly, his consistency if he keeps skating like this and his two years left before Sochi to mature in presentation and improve his current deficits in every aspect make him the one to make Patrick keep looking over his shoulder.

I see bronze at Worlds and two nearly clean performances. Chans a lock unless he pays for the falls this time out (not likely) and Dai has the skates of his life, he might pull the gold but so unlikely Crazy. Hanyu is the only competition for Patty in 2014. He will be 19, fit, used to the judges, will have won several medals, will soon eclipse even Dai.

I hope and pray Pat has to work his butt off or let Hanyu take his golden goose. This kid has it all and will have even more. He's the only one with a chance to take it from Patrick. I hope he does!

I want to see fair numbers, not a coronation "because" he's Patrick Chan. Abbott, Javi, Rippon, Jouby, Kozuka, Artur, Brezina should all watch Hanyu. He's the one to spoil their podium dreams in Nice.

 

[seniorita]

Chan was 18 when he podiumed in LA
Lysacek was 19 when he podiumed in Moscow (2005)
Gachisnki was 17 when he podiumed in Moscow (2011)

Oh I didnt get my facts right, i thought the last to medal (at Euros) so young was Jouby. IP please mark me as a Hanyu uber The first time I saw him in juniors I thought, oh this is the one I will root for in the future
I feel Hanyu is hyped at least since he was 15 and entered seniors since 16. Thats maybe why I feel he is a prodigy.

 

[Buttercup]

Yes he is. Worlds is in France and he is a former World Champion. It all depends on whether or not he can get his act together.

He is well past his prime, his PCS are now super low (for a former top skateR), and he doesnt score that big even when he skates well (which is rare these days). He will do well to make top 10 at Worlds.

Actually, Joubert's PCS at Euros, considering how he skated, suggests that the judges are still on his side. For the most part he hasn't skated well enough in the last couple of years and was consistently hurt on PCS by not making it into the final group.

Joubert is a wildcard at this point. He doesn't respond well to the pressure of skating in France, but considering how many people have essentially written him off, he may feel less pressured. Or not. Who knows. But for an French skater who does well in Nice, I imagine the audience will go wild and the judges will notice.

Oh I didnt get my facts right, i thought the last to medal (at Euros) so young was Jouby. IP please mark me as a Hanyu uber The first time I saw him in juniors I thought, oh this is the one I will root for in the future
I feel Hanyu is hyped at least since he was 15 and entered seniors since 16. Thats maybe why I feel he is a prodigy.

Hanyu is awesome, remember how I kept hyping him before you went to 2010 JW? And look, he's clearly beaten beat my long-ago prediction!

The interesting thing about Joubert isn't that he medalled at a young age, but how little international experience he'd had when he skated at 2002 Euros. Chan, Lysacek, Gachi, Plushy et al. all had some name recognition from their junior days. But for Joubert, I think it was his fifth international competition - at any level - and his first international medal, again at any level. Pretty neat to get your first podium finish at an ISU Championship, isn't it?

 

[Bluebonnet]

Chans a lock unless he pays for the falls this time out (not likely) and Dai has the skates of his life, he might pull the gold but so unlikely Crazy.

Where did he not pay for his falls? 4CC's SP? I agree that should have been a fall. But he got -3 GOEs all cross the board already. The only deduction he didn't get was -1 from a fall. If he got that -1 deduction, his SP score would have been 86.95 instead of 87.95. The second skater Mura was 83.44. The third skater Takahashi was 82.59. Chan was still first in SP and over all the gold medal winner.

I hope and pray Pat has to work his butt off or let Hanyu take his golden goose.

Like Patrick hasn't been doing that?!

 

[glam]

Where did he not pay for his falls? 4CC's SP? I agree that should have been a fall. But he got -3 GOEs all cross the board already. The only deduction he didn't get was -1 from a fall. If he got that -1 deduction, his SP score would have been 86.95 instead of 87.95. The second skater Mura was 83.44. The third skater Takahashi was 82.59. Chan was still first in SP and over all the gold medal winner.

Yeah, Chan's falls don't matter! It is crazy how short program is usually so nerve wreaking for most skaters because one fall can cost so much! But that doesn't apply to Chan. I don't think he has any pressure to succeed because he has realized that despite several falls, he can still win, unlike any other skater.

 

[seniorita]

Hanyu is awesome, remember how I kept hyping him before you went to 2010 JW? And look, he's clearly beaten beat my long-ago prediction!

?

Rippon and Ten medal contenders for 2014

Yes I m glad you had noticed Hanyu before moi! Because thats why I had it in mind and took notice of him at J. Worlds. Btw, I just looked at the entries and I lost Armin.

 

[Buttercup]

Rippon and Ten medal contenders for 2014

Yes I m glad you had noticed Hanyu before moi! Because thats why I had it in mind and took notice of him at J. Worlds. Btw, I just looked at the entries and I lost Armin.

Ha. I wrote that in 2009, Ten had just delivered a great performance as a 15 year old in his Worlds debut and Adam Rippon I think had broken the scoring record for a junior. At the time it made sense (people getting excited over Gracie Gold should keep in mind that potential does not always equal success). Anyway, the point is, I was ahead of the curve with Hanyu - stupid judges gave him crap PCS at 2009 Junior Worlds but I knew that he was awesome and special.

I think you'd have noticed him at 2010 JW anyway.

 

[evangeline]

I suspect Javier will win the bronze if he skates well--his big base value will be hard to beat and if his PCS are any indication, the judges are already viewing his as a genuine contender. If Javier stumbles, it'll be Yuzuru. Yuzuru has been skating better and better as the season progresses (just compare his LP at the Cup of China to Japanese Nationals), and I suspect this trend will continue to Worlds. Unfortunately he is the Japanese #3, so...

 

[wonderlen3000]

GOLD: PChan
He will wins no matters what, even if he skates half his program on his butt. As proved by earlier competitions, his SP and LP PCS will be close to 50 and 90, even if he has technical flaws. That pretty much gives him at least 10-15 points PCS cushion from his closest rivals (Takahashi and Abbott). I think the only way he will lose is if he pop his two quads and others skates perfectly (both case scenarios unlikely). The only question is will the judges continue to gift him and will be broke 300 marks.

SILVER: Takahashi, Abbott, Fernandez
I think these three are probably the likely candidate to challage for silver medal. All are capable of scoring over 85+ in SP, and over 165+ in LP. If both Taka and Abbott are on, the result will be very close. Question is will they be able to land the quad in the LP... While Fernandez is the strongest of the three in jumps, he tend to lose steam toward the end of the programs and he can sloppy on jumps and spins while u can count Taka and Abbott will continue to deliver till the end of the program. I would say Taka and Abbott have at least one mistake cushion over Fernandez bc of their better program.

BRONZE: Above 3 + Kazuko, Mini Plushy, Mini Jeff, Hanyu, Song...
These skaters will have to skate perfect SP+LP in order to have any real chance of getting on to the podium. I doubt their PCS will be over 40 in SP and 80 in Lp. So it will all comes down to the jumps and spins and who can sell the program a little better. IMO, Hanyu is the most complete skater of these candidates. Great programs, jumps, spins but this is his first senior world so I am sure the judges will continue to lowball him in PCS mark. But if he skates clean and others splats, he can squeeze in for bronze. We can assume half of these skaters will splats.

All in all it is going to be a fight for silver and bronze.

 

[seniorita]

1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. p'ssssshhhhhhhhhhhhh
4. Brezina (because comedy comes in threes.)

who is psssshhh?

 

[NMURA]

Yuzuru has been skating better and better as the season progresses (just compare his LP at the Cup of China to Japanese Nationals), and I suspect this trend will continue to Worlds. Unfortunately he is the Japanese #3, so...

Kozuka was the de facto #3 man last year but still won a medal. I don't think Takahashi's position is secure anymore. His decisive loss in Colorado might make the JSF to reconsider who should be backed up. If Hanyu takes the lead in the SP against Takahashi (and Kozuka), that would mark the moment of succession.

 

[pangtongfan]

Yeah, Chan's falls don't matter! It is crazy how short program is usually so nerve wreaking for most skaters because one fall can cost so much! But that doesn't apply to Chan. I don't think he has any pressure to succeed because he has realized that despite several falls, he can still win, unlike any other skater.

Very true. No skater in history has had such an easy ride and had the safety of known they are guaranteed to win every event no matter how they skate. Chan doesnt even have to worry about falls and mistakes, there is no chance he could lose with them. I bet they engrace his name in the gold medal ahead of time for events to get it done early, lol!

 

[seniorita]

I bet they engrace his name in the gold medal ahead of time for events to get it done early, lol!

^ deja vu, people on the boards were saying the same from 2003-2006 about Plush, to send him the gold medal by fax.hwell:
I m not a Chan fan but he is clearly dominating right now, and kudos for that. It is not easy feat!

 

[Violet Bliss]

Very true. No skater in history has had such an easy ride and had the safety of known they are guaranteed to win every event no matter how they skate. Chan doesnt even have to worry about falls and mistakes, there is no chance he could lose with them. I bet they engrace his name in the gold medal ahead of time for events to get it done early, lol!

If Chan's mindset is anywhere close to what you project it to be, he would not have been a Champion, let alone a domineering World Champion.

 

[evangeline]

Kozuka was the de facto #3 man last year but still won a medal. I don't think Takahashi's position is secure anymore. His decisive loss in Colorado might make the JSF to reconsider who should be backed up. If Hanyu takes the lead in the SP against Takahashi (and Kozuka), that would mark the moment of succession.

Wasn't Kozuka the Japanese National Champion last year? How does that make him the de facto #3 man?

 

[demarinis5]

Wasn't Kozuka the Japanese National Champion last year? How does that make him the de facto #3 man?

Yes he was. He also is the reigning World Silver Medalist and outscored Patrick in TES in the FS.
I would not call Kozuka #3 at all.

 

[Blades of Passion]

^

They meant "wasn't Kozuka the #3 man last year". I don't think Japan had a #3 man last year. I think Kozuka and Oda were both seen equally and very close to Takahashi. Judges generally felt it should be any 2 of the 3 Japanese men on the podium (below Patrick Chan).