US Nationals - What are your thoughts?

[R.D.]

When was junior worlds last year? Didn't she have a lengthy break between nats and worlds and still didn't do well?

 

[Mysticchic]

It was fun with numbers. I guess I can find another post I made on another board with the highs and lows of the GP and JGP
1.Kimmie Meissner 177.78 (SA) 158.03 (TEB)
2.Alissa Czisny 163.69 (SA) 121.21 (CoR)
3.Emily Hughes 151.12 (CoR) 147.34 (SA)
4.Bebe Liang 150.76 (Neb) 134.99 (CoC) 129.32 (NHK)
5.Megan Oster 135.73 (JGPF)
6.Megan William-Stewart 134.26 (Nepaela)
7.Danelle Kahle 130.60 (KS)
8.Katy Taylor 130.22 (Neb) 110.57 (SC) 106.07 (SA)
9.Christine Zukowski 127.94 (NHK) 123.59 (TEB)
10.Melissa Bulanhaguui 126. 87 (JGPF)
11.Megan Hyatt 123.51 (France)
12.Julianna Canarozzo 123.28 (Norway)

 

[Sylvia]

When was junior worlds last year? Didn't she have a lengthy break between nats and worlds and still didn't do well?

Junior Worlds was about 2 months after US Nationals. I thought I remember reading somewhere that Czisny had some boot issues toward the latter part of the season? I'm not trying to make excuses for her, BTW. I've watched Alissa compete since 2001 Nationals (when she won the silver medal in junior), and jump inconsistency is not a new thing for her. Who's to say, though, that she can't or won't pull a "Skate Canada 2005" at Nationals? Never say never!

Just wanted to add that listing IJS scores (both international and domestic -- see score lists on previous page) can only give us a ballpark idea of how well skaters have scored so far this season... who knows which skaters could "break out" at Nationals and skate better than they have had up to this point? That's the fun and unpredictability of sports!

 

[R.D.]

Thanks. I appreciate the info. I think Alyssa's just an inconsistent jumper. We don't know if we'll get the good Alyssa or the bad Alyssa at Nats. I think we can expect two falls from her.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

With all due respect to the two groups of stats, I presume the podium finish will be Kimmie Meissner, Alissay Czisny, Rachael Flat. If that happens, fourth place will be a most desired position.


We will see if the scoring system of points is a predictor of the podium.

Frankly, I will stick with the 3 Best Skaters on That Afternoon. Like the economic indicators telling one to buy or sell, I am working on the compeititive indicators predicting the podium. Previous point scoring is a factor but not the only one. Previous consistency is another, and there are more. I haven't finished yet,

Joe

 

[chuckm]

Here is a more complete listing of scores compiled at different types of competitions, including Regionals and Sectionals. There are multiple scores for the same skaters, as both GP events are included (not just the top score).

Bear in mind that "B" Internationals tend to be slightly overscored, as are Sectionals. The Regionals may look slightly underscored, as they are early seasonal.

177.78 (SA) Kimmie Meissner
163.69 (SC) Alissa Czisny
161.34 (EGL Regionals) Alissa Czisny
159.27 (Mid Sectionals) Rachael Flatt
158.03 (TEB) Kimmie Meissner
151.12 (CoC) Emily Hughes
150.76 (Nebelhorn) Bebe Liang
150.24 (P Sectionals) Danielle Kahle
148.18 (E Sectionals) Kylie Gleason
147.34 (SA) Emily Hughes
145.22 (E Sectionals) Taylor Firth
136.81 (NE Regionals) Kylie Gleason
135.73 (JGPF) Megan Oster
134.99 (CoC) BeBe Liang
134.30 (SW Regionals) Rachael Flatt
134.26 (Nepela) Megan William-Stewart
132.88 (UGL Regional) Megan Hyatt
130.60 (KS) Danielle Kahle
130.22 (Nebelhorn) Katy Taylor
129.32 (NHK) BeBe Liang
127.94 (NHK) Christine Zukowski
127.03 (SA Regionals) Chistine Zukowski
126.87 (JGPF) Melissa Bulanhagui
126.24 (Mid Sectionals) Megan Hyatt
124.63 (E Sectionals) Megan Williams-Stewart
123.59 (TEB) Christine Zukowski
123.55 (SA Regionals) Megan Williams-Stewart
123.51 (JGP FRA) Megan Hyatt
123.28 (JGP NOR)Julianna Cannarozzo
122.80 (NA Regionals) Taylor Firth
121.21 (CoR) Alissa Czisny
119.22 (E Sectionals) Juliana Cannarozzo
110.57 (SC) Katy Taylor
106.07 (SA) Katy Taylor

 

[Mathman]

I think the one that could defy the odds is Katy Taylor. She's stunk so far, but I think she has the talent to come out smelling like a rose.

 

[Mathman]

With all due respect to the two groups of stats, I presume the podium finish will be Kimmie Meissner, Alissay Czisny, Rachael Flat.

Well, that prediction follows the points right down the line, so I would say it's a pretty safe one:

177.78 (SA) Kimmie Meissner
163.69 (SC) Alissa Czisny
161.34 (EGL Regionals) Alissa Czisny
159.27 (Mid Sectionals) Rachael Flatt

If Emily is fourth you'll be right on the money.

 

[chuckm]

I hope you're right, Mathman. I've always liked Katy.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Well, it certainly shows these scores aren't the best indicator for predicting. I am waiting to see if the scores in competitions are indicators of future scores.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

Actually, that is something that we don't have to guess about. There are very well established statistical methods for measuring the correlation between points earned at one event and points earned at another.

Now that's you've set my mind on that track, maybe I will try it for last season. We could measure, for instance, the strength of the correlation between grand prix results and Olympics/worlds, and see how it turns out.

What I was saying is that if your prediction of Meissner, Czisny and Flatt comes true, this means that the highest points in previous competitions perfectly predicted the podium, because these are the three highest point-getters this year.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Well, that prediction follows the points right down the line, so I would say it's a pretty safe one:

That's if an only if the points are the only indicator for predicting the podium.

 

[R.D.]

I think the one that could defy the odds is Katy Taylor. She's stunk so far, but I think she has the talent to come out smelling like a rose.

I agree.

 

[Mysticchic]

Here are the 2005 GP and JGP ladies scores

175.12 Sasha Cohen 2nd TEB
168.32 Allissa Czisny SC 1st
159.30 Allissa Czisny SA 2nd place
155.72 Kimmie MEISSNER 5th TEB
152.18 Kimmie Meissner 5th NHK
141.14 Christine Zukowski andorra 2nd (JGP)
140.90 Alissa Czisny 6th GPF
139.26 Katy Taylor JGPF 4th JGPF
133.00 Beatrisa LIANG 4th SA
131.30 Katy Taylor Sofia 2nd place (JGP)
129.36 Megan Oster 2nd Montreal (JGP)
128.49 Danielle KAHLE 5th place Tallien Cup (JGP)
126.78 Emily Hughes SA 5th place
125.76 Emily Hughes CoR 5th
125.47 Chistine Zukowski JGPF 6th place
123.72 Christine Zukowski 3rd Croatia (JGP)
124.50 Juliana CANNAROZZO 3rd place Sofia (JGP)
124.09 Juliana Cannarozzo 3rd SBC Trophy (JGP)
115.00 Amber Corwin 8th CoR
115.50 Megan Hyatt Baltic (JGP)
108.11 Megan Williams-Stewart Andorra 5th (JGP)
97.45 Megan Oster SBC Trophy (JGP)
91.06 Amber Corwin CoC 10th

 

[R.D.]

Interesting that Alyssa's best score is 168. Kimmie at SA would easily have that beat. However, her TEB score is lower (158) so that's very telling. She should definitely drop that 3A as I think that seriously messed her up. With that off her mind I don't think any American can touch her. JMO

 

[Mathman]

She should definitely drop that 3A as I think that seriously messed her up. With that off her mind I don't think any American can touch her. JMO

No guts, no glory. Don't you want her to take a shot and lay it all out there, win or lose?

 

[R.D.]

I sure do. :yes:

 

[Mathman]

Here are the 2005 GP and JGP ladies scores

175.12 Sasha Cohen 2nd TEB...

OK, now we're getting somewhere! I ran these numbers and the results of 2006 U.S. Nationals through my calculator. Here is the formula for the "least squares regression line." That is, this formula predicts a skater's score at nationals from her scores in the Grand Prix or Junior Grand Prix events.

SCORE AT NATIONALS = 43.35 + .82 x AVERAGE GP SCORES.

The "coefficient of correlation" was r = .81, with r squared = .66. That is, 66% of the variation in scores among all skaters at nationals was correlated with GP scores. 34% is due to "other random factors."

Applying this formula to the skaters who did the grand prix this year and will also be at nationals, here is my prediction for 2007 nationals:

Meissner 186.07
Hughes 165.72
Czisny 164.43
Liang 160.51
Oster 154.65
Williams-Stewart 154.44
Kahle 150.13
Bulanhagui 147.38
Zukowski 146.48
Hyatt 144.63
Canarozzo 144.44

Applying the same formula to Rachael Flatt's score at Sectionals:

Flatt 173.95

So there you go. You can take that to the bank!

 

[chuckm]

So you're saying it's Meissner/Flatt/Hughes/Czisny?

That sounds good to me!

 

[Mysticchic]

that was cool..so how well did it apply to last years results? Just wondering.